Back on June 9, I made my best guess on what the Nationals would ultimately do with their 2008 draft picks. Here is how it ended up
Picks: Rounds 1-10 (My guess was 10/10)
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College Bat (signed) |
1 (1) |
1 (1) |
1 (1) |
| JuCo/CC Bat (signed) |
0 (-) |
0 (-) |
2 (2) |
| High School Bat (signed) |
3 (3) |
4 (4) |
2 (2) |
| Total Bats (signed) |
4 (4) |
5 (5) |
5 (5) |
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College Arm (signed) |
2 (2) |
4 (4) |
3 (2) |
| JuCo/CC Arm (signed) |
1 (0) |
0 (-) |
1 (1) |
| High School Arm (signed) |
5 (2) |
4 (4) |
1 (1) |
| Total Arms (signed) |
8 (4) |
8 (8) |
5 (4) |
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College (signed) |
3 (3) |
5 (5) |
4 (3?) |
| JuCo/CC (signed) |
1 (0) |
0 (-) |
3 (3) |
| High School (signed) |
8 (5) |
12 (12) |
3 (3) |
| Total (signed) |
12 (8) |
13 (13) |
10 (9?) |
The 2006 draft saw the Nationals miss on signing four pitchers, three from high school arms and one from a junior college. Sean Black (2nd rd) and Sam Brown (7th rd) were both highly thought of among the scouting community but the Nationals did not agree to contract with either one. JuCo LHP Joey Rosas (9th rd) and Marcus Salmon (10th rd) were the other two unsigned early selections by the Nationals. In 2007, the Nationals were a perfect 13/13 in the first fifth of the draft.
The Nationals did not get 1st round pick Aaron Crow signed. They were one of only two teams that did not sign their first round draft (the Yankees were the other at #28). I gave my thoughts in the postmortem last night. After having a night to sleep on it, the blame should still be shared but I’m going to fault Crow and his advisors a bit more. They are playing a game of chicken that he’ll receive an equal deal or better in 2009 which is going to be a challenge for a guy drafted ninth and offered around $3.3M (with or without a major league deal depending upon who you believe). The Nats deserve criticism in this. It’s not because of the dollars because in retrospect they have their value and were well within their rights to stick to it. It’s for misreading Crow and missing on a top 10 pick. Next year is not going to be easy from a financial standpoint with two top 10 picks, and the Nats are now in a position where they have to sign the #10 pick because it does not get compensated again.
My guess was 10/10; Actual was 9/10 (running tally: 9/10)
Picks: Rounds 11-20
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College Bat (signed) |
2 (2) |
5 (3) |
4 (4) |
| JuCo/CC Bat (signed) |
0 (-) |
1 (1) |
2 (1) |
| High School Bat (signed) |
1 (0) |
0 (0) |
1 (1) |
| Total Bats (signed) |
3 (2) |
6 (4) |
7 (6) |
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College Arm (signed) |
1 (1) |
3 (3) |
2 (1?) |
| JuCo/CC Arm (signed) |
5 (5) |
0 (-) |
0 (0) |
| High School Arm (signed) |
1 (0) |
1 (1) |
1 (1) |
| Total Arms (signed) |
7 (6) |
4 (4) |
3 (2?) |
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College (signed) |
3 (3) |
8 (6) |
6 (5) |
| JuCo/CC (signed) |
5 (5) |
1 (1) |
2 (1) |
| High School (signed) |
2 (0) |
1 (1) |
2 (2) |
| Total (signed) |
10 (8) |
10 (8) |
10 (8) |
As you can see, the Nationals were remarkably consistent in their 11-20 range selections, getting eight of them under contract. The only players they missed on in 2006 were a high school bat (Dustin Dickerson) and high school arm (Sam Dyson) while in 2007, their misses were both college junior bats (Sawyer Carroll & Dan Cook).
The Nats surprised me at the last minute getting OFs Marcus Jones (11th rd) and J.P. Ramirez (15th rd) signed at midnight on 8/15. Ramirez received a $1 million bonus while Jones’ number has yet to be released. That brings their total in this range to the identical 8/10 they signed over the last two season. The only players missed were 14th round LSU junior RHP Louis Coleman and 20th round CC 2B Nick Akins. Kudos to the Nats for getting the two last minute contracts and adding depth to an area that needs help … offense.
My guess was 8/10 (18/20 overall); Actual was 8/10 (running total: 17/20)
Picks: Rounds 21-30
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College Bat (signed) |
3 (3) |
4 (4) |
3 (3) |
| JuCo/CC Bat (signed) |
1 (1) |
1 (1) |
1 (1) |
| High School Bat (signed) |
2 (0) |
2 (0) |
1 (1) |
| Total Bats (signed) |
6 (4) |
7 (5) |
5 (5) |
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College Arm (signed) |
2 (1) |
3 (1) |
3 (3) |
| JuCo/CC Arm (signed) |
1 (0) |
0 (-) |
1 (0) |
| High School Arm (signed) |
1 (0) |
0 (-) |
1 (0) |
| Total Arms (signed) |
4 (1) |
3 (1) |
5 (3) |
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College (signed) |
5 (4) |
7 (5) |
6 (6) |
| JuCo/CC (signed) |
2 (1) |
1 (1) |
2 (1) |
| High School (signed) |
3 (0) |
2 (0) |
2 (1) |
| Total (signed) |
10 (5) |
10 (6) |
10 (8) |
In the middle rounds of the draft, the Nationals have been roughly 50/50 in getting players under contract, focusing primarily on collegians and missing on the high schoolers with a certainty. In 2006, they missed on a trio of high schoolers (Khris Davis, Burt Reynolds and Jim Birmingham), a college junior (Forrest Beverly) and a CC arm (Michael Robbins). In 2007, they missed on a pair of high school bats (Chris Berroa & Kelvin Clark), a college junior arm (Zack Pitts, and a draft eligible sophomore arm (Dave Duncan).
In 2008, they signed eight guys. So far OF Michael Guerrero (21st round) is a NYP League All-Star and OF Chris Curran (22nd round) is doing very well in the GCL.
They missed on one CC arm, 29th round RHP Chris Heston and one high school arm, 26th round RHP Cory Mazzoni. They ended up with more players signed in this range than I expected.
My guess was 6/10 (24/30 overall); Actual was 8/10 (running total: 25/30)
Picks: Rounds 31-40
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College Bat (signed) |
1 (1) |
0 (-) |
5 (3) |
| JuCo/CC Bat (signed) |
1 (0) |
1 (0) |
0 (0) |
| High School Bat (signed) |
2 (0) |
2 (0) |
0 (0) |
| Total Bats (signed) |
4 (1) |
3 (0) |
5 (3) |
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College Arm (signed) |
2 (2) |
4 (3) |
1 (1) |
| JuCo/CC Arm (signed) |
0 (-) |
3 (3) |
1 (0) |
| High School Arm (signed) |
4 (0) |
0 (-) |
3 (0) |
| Total Arms (signed) |
6 (2) |
7 (7) |
5 (1) |
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College (signed) |
3 (3) |
4 (3) |
6 (4) |
| JuCo/CC (signed) |
1 (0) |
4 (3) |
1 (0) |
| High School (signed) |
6 (0) |
2 (0) |
3 (0) |
| Total (signed) |
10 (3) |
10 (6) |
10 (4) |
The picks from 31-40 is where the Nationals made a big step from 2006 to 2007, doubling up their draft haul. As in the 21-30 range, high schoolers are a near lock to not sign. In 2006, the Nationals grabbed four high school arms and two high school bats, missing on all of them. They adapted in 2007, only drafting & missing out on two high schoolers (Dave Stewart & 2008 signee Dan Killian). College players were a more likely sing with the Nationals missing on only RHP Kenn Kasparek out of seven college players drafted in 2006 & 2007.
From 2008, they signed four players from this range. Signed were three bats … OF Brian Pruitt (34th rd), 3B Ronnie Labrie (38th round), and MI James Keithley (39th round) along with LHP Clayton Dill. So far, Labrie has been putting up solid numbers in the GCL.
Six guys remained unsigned:
- Two college junior bats (OF Billy Cather & 2B Avery Barnes)
- One CC arm (LHP John Lambert)
- Three high school arms (LHPs Bryan Harper, Scott Silverstein, & Casey Selsor)
It’s typically a long-shot to find a major leaguer in this range or later.My guess was 6/10 (30/40 overall); Actual was 4/10 (running total: 29/40)
Picks: Rounds 41-50
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College Bat (signed) |
0 (-) |
4 (4) |
1 (1) |
| JuCo/CC Bat (signed) |
2 (0) |
2 (1) |
2 (0) |
| High School Bat (signed) |
1 (0) |
0 (-) |
4 (0) |
| Total Bats (signed) |
3 (0) |
6 (5) |
7 (1?) |
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College Arm (signed) |
3 (1) |
1 (1) |
0 (0) |
| JuCo/CC Arm (signed) |
1 (0) |
1 (0) |
1 (0) |
| High School Arm (signed) |
3 (1) |
2 (0) |
2 (0) |
| Total Arms (signed) |
7 (2) |
4 (1) |
3 (0) |
| Type |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| College (signed) |
3 (1) |
5 (5) |
1 (1) |
| JuCo/CC (signed) |
3 (0) |
3 (1) |
3 (0) |
| High School (signed) |
4 (1) |
2 (0) |
6 (0) |
| Total (signed) |
10 (2) |
10 (6) |
10 (1) |
This is the area where teams rarely find anything more than organizational guys necessary to complete minor league rosters or back in 2006, identifying candidates for the now-defunct draft-and-follow process. The 2006 draft has a caveat in that the final two selections were sons of Nationals management (Josh Rodriguez [son of then bench coach Eddie] & Kyle Page [son of then hitting instructor Mitchell]). The only player remaining in the organization from 2006 is RHP Brad Peacock who was the Nats final draft-and-follow signing. In 2007, the Nationals were more aggressive, signing six (with four still in the organization). This was likely a function of restocking their lower levels of the minor leagues with players more compatible experience-wise. Over the previous seasons, the Nationals had placed quite a few players with multiple years of professional experience at lower levels just to fill out rosters.
The Nationals signed only one of their selections from 41-50, 1B J.P, Padron (44th round). The nine who did not sign were:
- Two JuCo/CC bats (OF Naoya Washiya & SS Colin Rooney)
- Four high school bats (CA Robert Brantly and OFs Alex Dickerson, Robert Zimmerman, & Fernando Frias)
- One CC arm (LHP Mike Rayl)
- Two high school arms (RHP Anthony Meo & LHP Anthony Colletti)
My guess was 3/10 (33/50 overall); Actual was 1/10 (running total: 30/50)
However, the Nationals did sign eight undrafted free agents this year which helps to make up for the players not signed in the 31-50 range. If you include those eight players, the Nationals brought 38 new players into the system in 2008 in comparison to 40 from last year’s draft (39 players they signed out of last year’s draft plus one undrafted free agent).
In the grand scheme of things, they stayed relatively consistent with the total number of players. They went over-slot on several deals (Hood, Espinosa, Hicks, Nieto, Ramirez and likely Jones). Missing out of their first round selection is going to be a tough one to handle and they are going to face some serious financial commitments with #1 and #10 overall in 2009 (as of today).
I’m working on a couple of other looks at the draft including comparing what other teams spent and who they signed.