Nationals Farm Authority

Jim Bowden continued his review of the job he did this year with his analysis of free agents, released player signings, Rule 5 draft picks, and waiver moves.

He starts with his gold star free agent signing, Esteban Loaiza. No arguments from me, that was a fantastic deal.

He moves on to the most frequently criticized signings, Cristian Guzman. Here is where Mr. Self-Indulgent comes out in full force. Bowden describes Guzman as

one of the worst free-agent signings in baseball. However, his solid defense helped key our first-half stay in first and his impressive September gives us hope he can return to the solid performer he was in Minnesota.

I beg to differ with his argument of solid defense. Guzman played serviceable defense, at best. He would make the spectacular play at times. But all too often he played indifferent defense and made a large number of errors on routine plays. Nick Johnson bailed him out on more times than I can count with scoops of low throws. Looking at qualified NL SS (2 GM per 3 team GM), Guzman ranks 13/15 in SS fielding percentage in the NL. He was tied for 3rd in errors committed by NL SS with 15. He was 11/15 in range factor ([PO+A]/innings played). And he was dead last in Zone Rating (The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive “zone,” as measured by STATS, Inc) among NL SS.

Next he discusses Vinny Castilla. I agree that his first half offensively was solid, and is not far from end of season expectations. And, his defense at 3B was very good. Among qualified 3B, Castilla’s fielding percentage is 2/9, his had the second fewest errors, 6/9 in range factor, and 5/9 in Zone Rating. His knee injury really hurt not only him but the team. Bowden mentions that two teams have already inquired about his availability. I think he’s blowing smoke, but I’ll wait and see.

The one thing he fails to acknowledge in the Guzman/Castilla free agent signings is the fact that he surrendered 2nd and 3rd round draft picks to sign them. That is way too often glossed over by Bowden. The Nationals farm system needs help. Badly. And by signing the guys when he did, he cost the Nats a chance to replenish the farm system. I really want him to address that aspect, but know he never will.

He briefly discusses Tony Blanco and Ty Godwin, the Rule 5 (not V) draft picks. He says they were “…solid selections. But they’ll be hard to evaluate until they’re major league ready in another three years. Both have potential.” Godwin is honestly no better than an AAAA OF. But he spent the season in New Orleans after a deal allowing the Nats to assign him to the minors. I have issue with his selection of Tony Blanco, who wasted away on the bench, robbing the Nats of the opportunity to promote an arm or a bat when it was needed. The reasoning? Bowden had no chance of consummating a deal with the Reds, his former team. Apparently, there was bad blood which forced the Nats to hold onto a player who was not ready. Why the Nats didn’t find a phantom reason to place him on the DL is beyond me … other teams do it.

He only mentions Hector Carrasco and Mike Stanton as released player signings. Carrasco was a great find, though I still view it as a lucky, great find. And Stanton’s signing needs to be couched with the fact that his acquisition led the Nats down the road that led to the loss of Sunny Kim. The acquisition of two prospects from the Red Sox yesterday helps a little bit, but it’s still a move with questions.

He closes with the two pitchers he lost for nothing, Claudio Vargas and Sunny Kim. Here is exactly what he had to say.

Lost Claudio Vargas to Arizona. He pitched well at times but still had an ERA over 5.00 and was just a .500 pitcher. His right elbow was an injury risk, but this move could be evaluated either way. He was out of options and not pitching well for us. Lost Sunny Kim to Colorado. This move, if evaluated right now, would be called a mistake. But if Blanco becomes a 30-homer, 100-RBI guy in 2007 or ‘08, then it will have been the right long-term move.

That’s news to me about Vargas being out of options. According to what I can find, Vargas only had 1.157 years of service time. From what I know about options, he could have been sent down. This may be an outright lie from Bowden.

Comparing losing Kim to keeping Blanco is disingenuous. If you want to stick to the comparison, I’d argue that you could have done both. It was at this time that Blanco was experiencing vertigo. Bowden could have hid Blanco on the 15-day DL given that it’s difficult to prove a player has fully recovered from vertigo. Personally, I still believe that Sunny Kim was lost in exchange for holding onto Mike Stanton, which was not necessarily the best move.

But in both cases, he fails to address the biggest question. For a team bereft of high minor SP options, why would you drain the pool even further? As proven by the late season scramble to find any SP, this was a critical mistake that damaged the team’s chances at competing for the Wild Card.

For as much as yesterday’s article seemed reasonable to me, this article is patented PT Bowden.

UPDATE: Mea culpa. It appears that Vargas burned up his remaining option years while with the Marlins. I stand corrected.

The Red Sox acquired Mike Stanton from the Nationals in exchange for two prospects, RHP Rhys Taylor and RHP Yader Peralta. Given that this is basically a three game rental for the Yankees series, the term prospects is probably a bit generous.

I don’t know much about either prospect. Guys over at Yuda’s have uncovered this about Taylor.

According to the man who signed Taylor, Jon Deeble - the Australian Olympic baseball coach who is also the director of Pacific Rim scouting for the Red Sox - Taylor is potentially one of the best pitching talents Australia has produced in some time. “There might be a few kids around who could throw as fast as him, but there would be none who are faster,” Deeble said yesterday. What impressed Deeble was obviously Taylor’s fast ball, but also the fact that at only 17, he already stood 187 centimetres and was likely to grow more. “Back then, he was 81 to 83 miles per hour (130-134 km/h) and now he is up into the high 80s and we see him filling out nicely in the body,” Deeble said. “He’s six three now (191 centimetres) and only 154 pounds (70 kilograms) and we see him getting a bit taller and being 224 pounds (102 kilograms). “I just think he has got a good arm and good free lose delivery. Obviously, he’s a project for us, but hopefully he can add a bit of muscle and I think he can throw in the mid-90s (150 km/h), which is a good above average major league fast ball.”

Hat tip to Scout.com who has the breakdown of what Nationals’ prospects will be making the trek to the Dominican Republic for the 7-week Instructional League beginning October 7.

Baseball America touches on their Carolina League Top 20 prospects. Three Nats make the cut.

1. Armando Galarraga, rhp, Potomac
2. Kory Casto, 3b, Potomac
3. Frank Diaz, of, Potomac

UPDATE: Nats Q/A today produced these Nats related ones

Q: Who would u think is a better Pitching Prospect In the Nat orgnization Gallaraga or Balester or who has more potential A: I’m a HUGE Galarraga guy. Just the body, the ultra-clean delivery, electric stuff and the competitiveness—it’s all there. I’d take him over Balester.

Q: Did Casto’s age work against him in any kind of a major way? A: It did, but not that much. He would easily be tagged the most improved player from a defensive standpoint in the league this season. You almost have to throw out his age when considering how much time he’s spent at third base, so he’s on a different timetable than most. With Ryan Zimmerman in the organization though, all that work at third might go to waste. I smell a position change here, mainly because you can’t ignore Casto’s bat.

Q: Who’s is the better defensive shortstop Ian Desmond or Robert Valido? A: Valido is leaps and bounds ahead of him, though he’s a year older. Desmond wasn’t overly impressive in any phase of the game, and though defense is his calling card, managers crushed him in this league. Valido did it all for the entire season, and if you’re ranking SS in this league, Desmond is probably no. 5 or 6 on that list.

Q: Correct me if I am wrong But are you saying that Armando Galarraga is the Nats best pitching prospect ahead of Michael Hinckley and Daryl Thompson? A: I think he’s ahead of both those guys right now, but you’re forgetting about Clint Everts.

Q: what about, in talking about nat’s pitching prospects, michael o’connor (who was the nationals minor league pitcher of the year)? - and, lastly, any love for josh whitesell and salomon manriquez? A: Michael O’Connor has solid stuff, big swing and miss fastball. He’s a top 30 guy in my opinion. Whitesell got some love, but was behind Head at first base. Manriquez had an outstanding offensive year, not so much with the defense, but the bat really came to life. I need to see more out of that production to believe it’s for real though.

EWWWW! The headline in the print version doesn’t paint a very good visual. Thankfully it’s just Mr. Self-Indulgent slurping himself in this week’s Examiner article. Bowden will spend the next two days reviewing the moves he made. Today he focuses on his trades and the draft.

Juan Rivera and Macier Izturis for Jose Guillen. Bowden gives the trade a thumbs up. I’d agree with him but would have liked him to address an aspect of the deal that is often ignored. How much better are the Nationals with Guillen than they would have been with Rivera and Izturis? Offensively, the Nats had the clear advantage in the deal:

Guillen 282/337/476 260TB 24HR 76RBI in 546AB Rivera 272/318/447 148TB 13HR 54RBI in 331AB Izturis 253/307/355 66TB 1HR 15RBI in 186AB

However, how valubable would the MI Izturis have been with Vidro’s injury and Guzman’s season long struggles? Would it have been worth accepting the downgrade from Guillen to Rivera? I realize hindsight is 20/20 but given the machinations Bowden had to go through to acquire any MI (it ended up Junior Spivey), having someone like Izturis around would have been nice. But in the grand scheme of things, the deal was a success.

Marlon Byrd for Endy Chavez deal was a clear steal for the Nationals. Byrd has proven himself a solid RH half of an OF platoon. No worse than a #4 OF.

Tomo Ohka for Junior Spivey. This is one of those deals that, given Ohka’s performance in Milwaukee, looks terrible. But given the position the Nats were in MI-wise and add onto that the fact that Ohka had worn out his welcome with Frank Robinson and Randy St. Claire, I think it was a deal that made sense at the time.

Zach Day and JJ Davis for Preston Wilson. I’d agree the deal was a success for the Nats. But I’d argue that it was not necessarily the deal that Bowden needed to make. Bowden locked his sights on Wilson early in the season and refused to alter his course. Yes, the Nats needed some punch offensively. Yes, Day had conflict with Frank Robinson (noticing a trend?). Yes, JJ Davis is nothing more than a Triple-A OF. But, the Nationals had an abundance of OF at the time of the trade and the more glaring problem was offense from MIs. I doubt Day/Davis would have brought a MI of note, but there were other pieces he could have moved. We will never know if there was a MI out there that could have helped, but it’s a question for Bowden to answer.

Bowden wraps up with his perception of the 2005 draft. There, shockingly, I think he’s selling himself a bit short.

The evaluation of our entire draft however, might be determined if we are able to sign our fourth pick, Justin Maxwell.

I wouldn’t go that far. I think he did a good job given just the selection of Ryan Zimmerman. If anything, he should have said the evaluation of the entire draft might be determined by how the other 19 signings perform. The MLB First-Year player draft is honestly a crapshoot. First round picks flame out (Matt Anderson, 1997 1st pick of the draft) and later round picks excel (Mike Piazza, 62nd round pick of the 1988 draft). Zimmerman has had a meteoric rise to the majors and has put himelf in a position to compete for a starting spot in 3B.

All in all, Bowden is not as self-indulgent as I expected given the headline. We’ll see if the modicum of modesty remains tomorrow when he reviews the Rule 5 draftees (Ty Godwin and Tony Blanco) and waiver moves (Claudio Vargas, Sunny Kim, and Ryan Drese to name a few).

The Nationals will be sending LH SP David Maust to the Arizona Fall League as their sixth representative. The 26-year old Maust spent his third season no higher than Double-A Harrisburg. In 26 games (14 starts), he was 5-4 in 100.2IP with an ERA of 2.36 and a WHIP of 0.92. He had 7.0 K/9IP, 1.3 BB/9IP, and 0.6 HR/9IP. Maust is joining SP Josh Karp, RP, Chris Schroder, 1B Larry Broadway, 2B Brendan Harris, and 3B Ryan Zimmerman (who will take two weeks off before arriving in Arizona, Tony Blanco is rumored to take his two weeks of AB).

I’m going to start my review of the Nationals top prospects with the Triple-A New Orleans Zephyrs.

Background: I considered hitters that played roughly one-third of the time or more, this allowed me to consider players who were promoted multiple times during the season. With regards to pitchers, I focused on SPs who started roughly 10% of the games or more; and RPs who appeared in roughly 20% of the games or more. Players will only appear in one top prospect list though I may comment on guys who made an impact (be it positive or negative) at other levels.

Top 5 Zephyrs Hitting Prospects

1. Brandon Watson OF - The 23 year old finished 355/400/419 in 88 games in New Orleans. His appearance at #1 is more a function of the fact that the Nationals lack major league prospects at the Triple-A level. I have written about Watson before. His 355 BA was buoyed almost entirely by singles (113/132 hits) and he does not draw a large number of walks (28BB in 372AB). He also needs to become more selective stealing bases as 31/44 is not the greatest SB %. If Watson can continue to hit the ball on the ground, learn to take a walk and use his speed, I believe he has the ability to be a serviceable leadoff hitting CF.
2. Brendan Harris 2B/3B - The 25 year old had a respectable 270/329/417 in 127 games in New Orleans shifting between 2B and 3B. Harris has adequate power (including the only PH HR for the Nats this year) for a 2B, not so much as a 3B. His performance at 3B is not necessarily important as Ryan Zimmerman is the future there. He showed some ability of knowing the strike zone (40BB/77K). His biggest hurdle will be getting the Nationals front office to notice him. He apparently doesn’t give them the impression that he is capable of handling 2B defensively in the majors. The Nationals are sending him back to the Arizona Fall League (302/358/469 in 2003) where he will be playing for Nats bench coach, Eddy Rodriguez. Hopefully, he’ll have the opportunity to assume a role similar to Jamey Carroll in 2006.
3. Rick Short IF - The 32-year old Short is hardly what anyone would call a prospect but the numbers he put up at New Orleans (383/456/569) are hard to ignore. Short showed moderate power (11HR), amazing strike zone control (46BB/27K), and flirted with 400 through mid-August. His storybook season had its ups (RBI single in his first major league AB, HRs off of Dontrelle Willis and John Smoltz) and its downs (demoted back to New Orleans immediately after his first hit and most depressing, separating his shoulder on a play at 2B when Frank Robinson finally gave him his shot). Assuming his recovery from shoulder surgery goes well, Short needs strong consideration for Carlos Baerga’s PH/utility IF spot in 2006.
4. Tyrell Godwin OF - I’m stretching the definition of prospect for the 26-year old Rule 5 draft pick from the Blue Jays. He has a similar skill set to Brandon Watson (321/387/443) with a little bit more power (9HR) and a little less speed (22/34). I’m not sure where he fits in the Nationals’ future plans as he is ideally a #4 or 5 OF which is a position the Nationals are already well-stocked.
5. Matt Cepicky OF - I’m once again sticking with the very loose definition of prospect with the 27-year old Cepicky. The LH OF had fairly average numbers in New Orleans (269/347/477) but failed to produce in his limited exposure in Washington. His season ended with a knee injury in New Orleans.

Top 2 Zephyrs Pitching Prospects (In all good conscience, I can only come up with 2 legitimate pitching prospects in New Orleans)

1. Jay Bergmann RP - The 24-year old Bergmann had a breakout season between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A New Orleans. In a combined 74IP, Bergmann excelled with a 1.11 WHIP, 2.19ERA, 9.2K/9IP and 3.5BB/9IP. He showed the ability to both pitch in middle relief as well as closing out the occasional game. With Luis Ayala recovering from elbow surgery (bone spurs), Bergmann should be on the short list of RPs competing for a spot in the 2006 Nats bullpen.
2. Travis Hughes RP - The 27-year old Hughes was claimed off of waivers from the Texas Rangers. The hard-throwing RH RP made 52 appearances (59.2IP) for New Orleans with a 1.21 WHIP, 3.02 ERA, 11K/9IP, and 3.8BB/9IP. Hughes is yet another RHP option for the 2006 Nationals bullpen. Whoever the GM is should take note and realize that there are choices in-house for relief pitching and focus available dollars on SPs.

Special Mention: Chris Schroder SP, the 27-year old Schroder was selected for one the 6 available spots in the Arizona Fall League (AFL). I cannot really understand why as his numbers between Harrisburg and New Orleans were terrible, 1.46 WHIP, 6.26 ERA, 2.0 HR/9IP, and 5.1 BB/9IP. The only positive was his 11.2 K/9IP. My only guess is the Nationals are going to try him out as a SP and will use the AFL to see if he has the endurance and ability.

The Nationals defeated the Giants 2-0 driven offensively by Ryan Zimmerman and Rick Short. How about that? Frank Robinson trotted out an apparent ‘white flag’ lineup comprised of the likes of Gary Bennett catching, Deivi Cruz at SS, Carlos Baerga at 1B, and a slew of inexperienced players in the remaining spots. And they won. The offense was spurred on by Ryan Zimmerman and Rick Short who went a combined 4/7 (out of a total 8 hits) scoring both runs with Short delivering the GW RBI.

Imagine that, Frank finally relented and played Zimmerman. Do you think he knows what the kid gives him? Is he getting a good read of what he’s capable of doing? Zimmerman handled himself admirably at the plate, he struck out twice but he did not get cheated in his other two ABs ripping two solid singles and starting the Nationals rally in the 7th. Maybe now that the Nationals are all but eliminated, Zimmerman will actually see regular playing time.

Rick Short also proved himself worthy of a long look in the off-season. He is definitely not a defensive specialist, but it is becoming clear that he’s more than capable with the bat. He could easily replace Carlos Baerga as the PH/Utility IF. Let’s hope the Nats given Short a long look in the off-season. He’s more than a good story, he’s a good player.

Baseball America reviewed the NY-Penn League’s Top 20 prospects. Once again, not Nationals made the Top 20. During a subsequent chat, Baseball America’s Matt Meyers answered the following question regarding the Vermont Expos.

Q: Thanks for the chat. The Nats are 0 for 2 so far on the top 20 lists. Anyone worth following from the Vermont club? A: Nice to get some international love, so I had to take this one. The Vermont squad has a few guys worth keeping an eye. The most obvious is Clint Everts who has as high of a ceiling of any pitcher in the Nats system. He is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is currently ahead of schedule. The Nats told him not to worry at all about results this season and just focus on regaining his arm strength. He hardly threw his curve or his change but the 5th overall pick from the 2002 draft should be back at full strength in 2006 and is just 21. Couple of position players worth mentioning are Francisco Plasencia and Dee Brown. Plasencia was one of the last cuts from the list and showed the ability to play a strong center field, hit for average and some power and steal some bases. He is certainly a talent and worth following. Brown is the son of the late Jerome Brown, an Eagles defensive lineman in the Buddy Ryan era that used to run the show in Tecmo Super Bowl for Nintendo, and he has some nice raw power.

From Barry Svrluga’s Nationals Notebook:

With the Washington Nationals holding only the faintest hopes of reaching the postseason, Manager Frank Robinson said he might look at some of the team’s inexperienced players. Of particular interest: infielders Ryan Zimmerman and Rick Short.

I’d place strong emphasis on the word might.

“Sooner or later, Zimmerman’s going to start three or four ballgames in a row, and Short may start two or three, [Brandon] Watson one or two.”

I think I’ll keep that quote from Frank right next to my magic beans.

“But basically, you’re going to see the same guys that have been here finish out the season.”

That’s the Frank we know and l… well at least we know him.