Nationals Farm Authority

What do you know, the Nationals were nice enough to put a primer of their off-season direction in today’s Washington Examiner. Jim Bowden talks about who is arbitration eligible and who is a free agent from the Nationals, not to mention a brief description of Type A/B free agents.

A conspiracy theorist could look at the names written and the order in which they were written and try to extrapolate the off-season direction of the Nationals.

Examples of Type A free agents are pitchers Kevin Millwood and A.J. Burnett and outfielders Johnny Damon and Brian Giles.

This is the second time Bowden has mentioned Burnett, Millwood, and Giles. Burnett and Damon will likely command the most on the free agent market and honestly should not be in the Nationals’ plans. Millwood is an intriguing name but as fans of the Phillies will tell you, he’s a crapshoot plus I don’t believe he’s worth surrendering a first round draft pick for. Currently, the Nats are not in the top 15 picks of the 2006 draft so their 1st round pick would not be protected. While Brian Giles is intriguing, there are two things that he brings that do not necessarily help the Nationals. First, he’s 35 years old, not the age you want to bring into a developing team. Second, he’s an OF, a position the Nationals seem to have an abundance of options.

Type B free agent (which would cost a second-round pick) would be pitchers Jarrod Washburn and Brett Tomko.

Tomko and Washburn also both make a second appearance. I would definitely consider both of these guys with one caveat to Bowden. Wait until after December 7, 2005 to make an offer. That would be the arbitration deadline, a date Bowden ignored last year whe he signed Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman thereby costing the Nationals a 2nd and 3rd round draft pick. He should talk to these guys but wait and hope their current teams not offer them arbitration.

The players we have eligible for arbitration are: Marlon Byrd, Luis Ayala, Jamey Carroll, Alex Escobar, Brian Schneider, T.J. Tucker, Brad Wilkerson, Nick Johnson and Junior Spivey. Only Nick, Brian and Brad have a chance of being awarded $3 million or more.

I don’t see much to the listing here. Though I suggest you remember who Bowden highlights as the three players he believes will crack $3M in arbitration. My guess is one of them will be moved prior to 2006, most likely Brad Wilkerson, an OF who looks like he may age quickly with a quick skill drop-off who also happens to have Scott Boras as his agent.

Our free agent list includes: Esteban Loaiza, Preston Wilson, Tony Armas Jr., Hector Carrasco, Joey Eischen, Mike Stanton, Gary Bennett, Carlos Baerga, Deivi Cruz, John Halama, Antonio Osuna and Keith Osik. We’ll rank these players 1-12 and when there’s a new owner in place, we’ll pursue the ones we want to re-sign. Some we’ll want back; others we won’t because maybe we can do better through our farm system, free agency or by trading.

Here is where my conspiracy theory kicks in full force. I could see that order above be the Nationals’ preliminary wish list in order of preference.

Loaiza is listed as a free agent because it seems apparent that Loaiza will not exercise his part of the mutual option for 2006 in hopes of signing a long term/higher dollar deal. I’d be wary to go anywhere beyond two years and no more that $3-3.5 million/year.

Wilson being listed second is troublesome. He cannot be offered arbitration from a common sense perspective. According to the rules, he cannot received anything less than 80% of his 2005 salary in arbitration. That means he would have a minimum salary of $8M in 2006. Way too much. Additionally, if the Nats do not offer him arbitration, their window to negotiate is reduced down considerably, making a deal much tougher to complete. If Wilson is willing to come back for a 1 year/$4 million deal with some sort of option, he may be worth it. Otherwise, thank him for what he’s done and move on.

Armas. He has been nothing but a question for the Nats since he was acquired. Constantly injured and never living up to his expected potential. I believe it’s time to let him go someplace else to see if he can live up to his promise.

Carrasco. He has been a wonderful story for the Nats this year. He is yet another of the RHP RP salvaged from the scrapheap who pitches brilliantly. There are at least one or two of them every year. I worry that Carrasco’s performance has set a salary expectation that makes his return on investment in 2006 too low to bring him back. If he’s willing to come back at something of home team discount, maybe. But I agree with people (Yuda) who have said they expect a team like the Pirates will offer him a 3 year deal. If that’s the case, pass.

Eischen and Stanton are both LH RP, I see only one of them returning. Flip a coin.

Draw a line after Mike Stanton. Everyone after that point is not coming back.

The best thing that Bowden said?

…this won’t change the way we build this franchise. We have to build through development like the small-market A’s and Indians have — whether it’s by me or a new GM.

Let’s hope this is true in an edited version:

It’s good to know that Ryan Zimmerman is still hanging around. I got to watch a really good game from really good seats (thanks, DM) with an all too familiar outcome, a late inning collapse with a rally that came out a few inches short in a 4-3 Nationals loss to the San Francisco Giants.

Let me get this out of the way first, I booed Barry Bonds. But I have to tell you that HR to the upper deck in RF was the hardest hit/longest HR I have ever seen in person. As much as many will not agree, I have to tip my cap to him. That was impressive.

No surprise to anyone, Frank Robinson trotted out his veteran lineup again. They didn’t show a whole lot against Giants uber-prospect, Matt Cain. The rookie RHP was certainly impressive, 7IP 4H 2R 2BB 7K. Fortunately for Nats’ fans, Livan was more impressive (Bonds HR aside) until the 9th inning where he surrendered the eventual game winning HR to Moises Alou.

The Nats tried to make a game of it in their final AB where Ryan Zimmerman was called upon to deliver in a critical situation and in my estimation, delivered. Zimmerman came to the plate with the Nats down 4-2, bases loaded, and 1 out against Armando Benitez. Zimmerman showed great patience working the count to 3-0 , taking a strike, and then following a fastball straight back to the screen, a clear indication that he had his timing down right. He followed that up with a SF to LF driving clsoing the gap to 4-3.

This was my third time watching Zimmerman play in person and I’m drinking the Kool-Aid. This kid is good. Really good. He looks comfortable at the plate, rarely overmatched, and definitely not like someone who was playing college baseball three months ago.

He didn’t let the pressure of the situation impact his AB.

He didn’t let the pressure of 5 days of no game activity impact his AB.

He didn’t let the implied pressure from Frank Robinson and his disdain for younger players impact his AB.

What he did was work a count to his favor and get himself into a position where he could drive the ball in hopes of scoring multiple runs.

And he says the right things to the press. “I guess you could say I did part of the job,” said Zimmerman, satisfied with the sacrifice fly but wishing he had singled in two runs instead (Washington Times).

I am looking forward to what Zimmerman will do in Arizona and I hope he gets a legitimate chance at the 3B job in the spring. Because he is proving he may be this damned good.

The Washington Times noted the Nationals had named their pitcher/player of the year.

The Nationals named third baseman Kory Casto and left-hander Michael O’Connor as their minor league player and pitcher of the year. Casto hit .290 with 36 doubles, 22 homers and 90 RBI for Class A Potomac. The 23-year-old infielder was the Expos’ third-round draft pick in 2003. [The 25-year old] O’Connor went 10-11 with a 3.54 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 26 starts for Potomac. A native of Ellicott City, Md., he was a seventh-round pick in 2002 out of George Washington.

Both Casto and O’Connor will be honored before tomorrow afternoon’s series finale against the Giants.

Baseball America has begun their review of the top prospects at each level in the minor leagues. No National was among the top prospects. I had a question answered by Allan Simpson

Q: Is there any ray of hope coming from the Nationals players in the GCL? Did any of the 2005 draft picks surprise? Disappoint? A: Nationals draft picks didn’t make much of an impact, but don’t forget that Ryan Zimmerman debuted in Class A and is already in the big leagues, the team didn’t have second- or third-round picks and fourth-rounder Justin Maxwell remains unsigned. Fifth-rounder Ryan Delaughter held his own, though he can be pitched to as he sits on fastballs. He hits the ball well to the opposite field, but scouts say his swing may need re-tooling. Keep an eye on RHP Andre Enriquez, a 14th-rounder whose fastball was clocked at 94.

Left-hander Michael Hinckley, once considered the Nationals’ top pitching prospect, saw Dr. Tim Kremcheck in Cincinnati, and it was discovered that Hinckley has a tight capsule in his left shoulder. Hinckley is expected to have surgery in the shoulder soon.

Hinckley played for Class-A Potomac this season and went 3-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 22 games. He is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training.

The Generalissimo finally gets the definitive answer to the question surrounding Ryan Zimmerman’s playing time.

“I’m not trying to get him spots,” Robinson said. “We’re riding the horse that brought us here. The ugly girl we asked to the dance is the one we’re going with.”

While I don’t agree with the answer, I understand it and now won’t have to wonder why Zimmerman isn’t getting any spot starts. Frank’s loyalty is admirable and if I were a veteran player, it is a positive with respect to bringing players to Washington next year. If anything, the loyalty to Guzman and Castilla have demonstrated that if you are a veteran and you are promised a starting job, it’s more than likely yours come hell or high water.

I’m going to enjoy the ride over the next two plus weeks as the Nationals fight for the Wild Card spot. I won’t kvetch about lack of playing time for Zimmerman or any other younger player. But once (a) the season ends or (b) the Nationals are eliminated, I hope that Frank realizes it’s time to look towards the future.

The Fredericksburg Free-Lance Star thankfully touches on a topic given short-shrift by the local newspapers … the Nationals farm system. They highlight the fact the Nationals farm teams went a combined 301-387, an 18 game improvement on 2004.

While it would be nice to see the farm teams finish with a winning record, the primary goal of the farm teams is to develop players for the major league team. Winning records and playoffs are nice, but not mandatory. Regular readers know that I am no fan of GM Jim Bowden, but I have to agree with him on this:

In the minor leagues the most important thing is developing players. The reason I want to win is I want to develop winning players. So my philosophy is you develop first, but I want to the team to win. I want the players who are prospects and developing learning how to win.

If I were to place a percentage on the focus, I’d say 80% on development and 20% on winning.

They mention a few players who had breakout seasons, including Savannah’s Collin Ballester, Potomac’s Frank Diaz and Kory Casto and Harrisburg’s Armando Galarraga. I’d add Vermont’s Francisco Guzman and Francisco Plasencia, Potomac’s Ian Desmond, and Harrisburg’s Vince Rooi. I’m working on an analysis of each team with highlights of which players moved into the spotlight and should be considered future prospects.

The bottom line is that the Nationals still have a long way to go to just restore their farm system to respectability let alone to the level that produced Cliff Floyd, Larry Walker, Jose Vidro, and Vladimir Guerrero (not Pedro Martinez as the article mentions, he was a Dodgers find). Once again, Bowden sums it up best:

As far as the pool of players in our farm system, although it’s improved, we have a long way to go and you don’t redo a farm system overnight. You have to do it one draft at a time. So it takes four to five years to get it back to where you wanted to get it.

Mark Zuckerman offers up some Nats notes in today’s Washington Times. He touches on why Ryan Zimmerman continues to sit on the bench while Vinny Castilla plays.

Despite pleas from fans and the media, Robinson plans to continue starting Vinny Castilla at third base over rookie Ryan Zimmerman as long as the Nationals remain in the playoff race. Robinson acknowledges that Zimmerman, 20, at times has looked impressive since his promotion from Class AA Harrisburg. But the manager also has held firm to his long-standing belief that veteran players should get priority over rookies, especially at this crucial juncture of the season. “I think Vinny has the right to be out there if he’s capable and wants to be out there,” Robinson said. “I don’t know what the kid gives me. I don’t know what he’s capable of doing. But I do know what Vinny is capable of doing. I guess you can call it loyalty. … The kid will have his day.”

It’s Frank’s illogical logic at work again. First it was Ryan Church cannot hit LHPs because he cannot hit LHPs. Mainly because he is never started against LHP (though he has done OK in a small sample size 345/406/621 in 29AB). Now it’s he doesn’t know what the kid gives him/is capable of because Frank insists on running his one-legged 3B out there every day. Yes, Zimmerman will have his day. That day will be the day after Frank retires/resigns/is fired. If anything has been proven this season, it’s that pitchers aside, Frank is still stuck in a player’s mindset rather than a manager’s. A player believes that he deserves to play as a function of how long he has been in the majors. A manager can consider that, but bottom line is a manager needs to do what is best for the team as a whole. Frank will never do that.

Both the Times and the Washington Post had not so good news about RP Luis Ayala. It is no big surprise that Ayala is done for the season because of a bone spur in his right elbow. A bone spur which can be tied almost entirely to his overuse/abuse by Frank. Ayala pitched all winter in the Mexican League and then was used 67 times (49 times before the All-Star Break). Frank’s repeated use of Ayala, Carrasco, and Majewski definitely are cause for concern in the future.

UPDATE: Chris over at Capitol Punishment says it much better.

Now Boz knows how most of us have felt most of the season.

Tonight’s lineup versus the Mets: Brad Wilkerson, 1B Marlon Byrd, LF Jose Guillen, RF Preston Wilson, CF Vinny Castilla, 3B Deivi Cruz, 2B Gary Bennett, CA Cristian Guzman, SS Hector Carrasco, SP

First Boswell questions Jim Bowden’s roster call-ups, now he’s advocating playing rookies.

Welcome to the Dark Side, Boz, we’ve been waiting for you.

And better yet, he realizes one simple fact that “…the players about whom the Nats most desperately want answers — Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Church, Marlon Byrd and … Rick Short — are also the players who give them the best chance to score runs for a change and maybe make some noise down the stretch.” It only took him until the middle of September with less than 20 games remaining to realize that the typical everyday lineup for the Nationals cannot get it done. Be it injuries (Wilkerson, Vidro, etc), age (Castilla), or overall suckitude (we all know who that is), the lineup that Eddy Rodriguez gives Frank is barely adequate.

While Castilla may still be solid defensively, his knee injury has turned him into a liability at the plate. He can still drive the ball but he cannot run the bases. In last Thursday’s game against the Marlins, I watched Castilla drive a ball to the gap in left center, an easy standup double. But Vinny’s gimpy gait made the play a whole lot closer than it should have been. I still believe Vinny can help the team, but it’s best handled as part of a platoon with Zimmerman. Let Dutch get out there … at third base … at least 3 games/week. He already looks smooth with the glove. Marlins’ manager Jack McKeon confirms it, “I’ve been watching this game a long time. Sometimes, you can tell just by the way they move, the way they react to situations. Zimmerman is going to be good.” And he has held his own with the bat against Dontrelle Willis and John Smoltz. More playing time is only going to help.

Many of us have been advocating regular playing time for Ryan Church and Marlon Byrd all year. Byrd cannot hit RHP (209/258/282 in 110AB) but can hit LHP (338/393/473 in 74AB). Meanwhile Church can hit RHP (291/342/451 in 213AB) and … well, actually he can hit LHP too, when he gets the chance (345/406/621 in 29AB). Playing Church regularly against LHP might allow the Nats to see what they have. But if that’s not the case, we know what Preston Wilson, a RH hitter, brings to the table and Brad Wilkerson, a LH hitter, is struggling with an arm injury. Perhaps allowing Byrd and Church to start a few games not only woldn’t hurt but also might provide the offensive spark the Nationals need.

First, Boz criticizes Bowden and Tavares. Now he’s in support of playing rookies. Whatever will he do next? Frank Robinson better be looking over his shoulder, there’s an angry old sportswriter waving his big foam finger closing in.

UPDATE: Basil over at Nationals Inquirer points out a great slam of Bowden. Give in to the Dark Side, Boz.