Nationals Farm Authority

The Nationals further reduced their roster today with one name of note. The Washington Nationals today optioned OF Ryan Church, RHP Jason Bergmann and IF Brendan Harris to New Orleans of the AAA Pacific Coast League. The club also reassigned LHP Bill Bray to minor-league camp. Additionally, the Nationals transferred Luis Ayala and Brian Lawrence from the 15- to the 60-day DL and purchased the contracts of SS Royce Clayton and DH Daryle Ward.

The consensus of most out there is that the demotion of Church was a bad move.  The primary comparison has been to the performance of both Church and the winner in the CF battle, Brandon Watson.  I thought that the battle for CF had been won by Watson, but then Barry Svrluga published reports on Tuesday that Watson’s numbers may not be enough.  Then early Tuesday evening, the surprising news came out that Church was headed to New Orleans.  While I agree that in the long term, Church has the better opportunity for long term success, Watson was the preference entering spring and did little to change that opinion.  Time will tell if Watson can live up the organization’s expectations.  As I have stated before, Watson needs to show improved patience at the plate, draw more walks, and learn to use his speed better (both to get on base as well as stealing bases). From a defensive perspective, Watson is not a tremendous CF, in fact a platoon of Marlon Byrd and Watson in CF with Alfonso Soriano in LF is pretty sub-par.  Watson and Byrd are better as LFs and, well, Soriano is better as a DH.

Speaking of DH, it appears that 1B in name only Daryle Ward has secured a spot on the 25-man.  While his 273/313/568 with 4HR in 44 spring AB provides a nice LH power bat off of the bench, he realistically has no position, and leaves the Nationals with no true backup OFs on the roster.  Matt LeCroy is envisioned as the backup to Nick Johnson at 1B.  Marlon Anderson will be a backup at 1B and 2B and maybe the corner OF.  Damian Jackson is the only true MI backup with perhaps some time in the OF.  With Ward’s presence on the roster, Marlon Byrd remains the only guy whose primary position is OF on the 25-man roster.  If anything the rostering of ward at the expense of Church is questionable.  I’ll go with the assumption that the Nationals want Church to play regularly in New Orleans.

As for the other moves, Harris’ time with the Nationals seems to be coming to an end.  He’ll return to New Orleans again this season but at this point, a trade may be the best option for both parties.  If the Nationals plan on holding onto Harris, it would make sense to have him play SS full time with the Zephyrs in the chance that Cristian Guzman is out for an extended period of time.

Bergmann’s demotion is no big surprise, he was a victim of a number’s game, with Felix Rodriguez and Gary Majewski filling RH RP roles, New Orleans was a foregone conclusion (even with the spring he has had).  This is primarily because he has something that most of the other Nats pitchers don’t … options remaining. Bergmann can be sent down to AAA while guys like Rodriguez and Jon Rauch would have to approve the move and/or clear waivers. One guy who does have options left is Majewski. Majewski has been struggling so far this spring. Whether it be from overuse last year or something else, it may make sense to give Majewski a bit more time in extended spring training leaving an opening for Bergmann.  Until then, he’ll work out of the pen in New Orleans.

Finally, Bray pitched well in all but one of his outings and the Nationals mentioned they are interested in finding a spot for the lefty.  The rumor is that they are shopping Joey Eischen (rumors say for Detroit OF Nook Logan).  Trading pitching depth is not a path the Nationals should revisit in 2006, especially for an OF-type they already have an abundance of … slap hitting speed types.  Bray should find a spot in New Orleans.

The Washington Post finally ran the Barry Svrluga article on the Nats player development  within the minor leagues that everyone was waiting for (well, at least I was).  Nate over at Nats Triple Play captures my feelings on the article spot-on … “not exactly hard hitting.”  He also presents a pretty good review of what has been lost from the farm system over the past few years.  Needless to say, the MLB ownership of the Nationals has negatively impacted the foundation of the Nationals’ player development.

The article does not really provide any idea of a blueprint for the future besides Senior Director of Player Personnel/Assistant General Manager, Bob Boone’s mission to “make it better.” 

For the second time, we are told that the Nationals are focusing on a philosophy of “not going to the next level until you command this level.”  This is nice in theory but given the lack of depth at the lower levels of the minor leagues, it will difficult to put into action.  The Nationals signed 43 minor league free agents in the off-season, most are organizational types (i.e. lifetime minor leaguers).  Every team needs these players, but the problem that I see is how many of these guys (typically mid to late-20s) are going to be willing to fill roster spots all the way down in Potomac or Savannah.  The problem this then creates is the promotion of players from Vermont/GCL to Savannah to fill out a complete roster.  These players are often times not ready for this level and spend too much development time sitting on the bench.  We can hope that a larger preponderance of the 43 signed as minor league F/A are undrafted players from the 2005 pool of availables.

Minor league rosters should be determined some time within the next week.  This is something I will be watching as the Nationals do not have a press release detailing who is playing where.  It is a catch as catch can search of the various minor league sites.

Spring Training (Defeated Houston 13-6)

• Brendan Harris 2B - 0/1
• Brandon Watson CF/LF - 1/4 1R 1K 1SB (#7 this spring)
• Jay Bergmann RP - 1IP 1H 0R 0BB 0K

Spring Training (Defeated Atlanta 4-2)

• Brandon Waston CF - 0/1
• Brendan Haris 3B - 0/1 1K
• Travis Hughes RP - 1IP 0H 0R 1BB 1K
• Jay Bergmann RP - 1IP 1H 0R 0BB 2K

Spring Training (Lost to Detroit 4-0)

• Brandon Watson CF - 1/3 1BB 1SB
• Brendan Harris SS - 1/1 1BB
• Bill Bray RP - 0.2IP 2H 0R 0BB 0K

During his weekly chat, Washington Post columnist, Tom Boswell, had this exchange with a chatter with regards to Nationals LH SP prospect, Mike Hinckley.

Manassas, Va.: Mr. Boswell:Whatever happened to Mike Hinckley? I heard a lot about him last spring, but nothing since. The talk was that he was a hot propect. Tom Boswell: The stautus of supposed “prospects” changes constantly. I said last spring that Hinckley looked like a soft-tosser to me, which isn’t what you uisually [sic] want in young pitchers.

I will admit that I don’t have the breadth of experience that Mr. Boswell does regarding baseball, but I do know one thing very well. You cannot make a snap judgement on a player based upon a small sample size. Not to mention a judgement based upon a performance by an injured player. More after the jump.

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The Nationals home page just posted a slew of links with minor league goodness:

• Beat writer Bill Ladson highlights Kory Casto.  Ladson still has him potentially slated for 2B in Harrisburg.  This runs counter to what Andy Dunn said to Baseball America the other day that Casto would remain at 3B in Harrisburg.  I believe it might make the most sense to allow Casto to continue to develop offensively without having to deal with a more difficult defensive position. 
• Bill also discusses the prospects of Jon Rauch with the Nats.  While Rauch is definitely far beyond what anything remotely prospect-oriented, it’s an interesting perspective on a guy the Nats hope can follow in the footsteps of John Patterson, once-hyped prospect finally delivering on some of the expectations.  Rauch is out of options so if he’s not the long relief/spot starter in Washington, expect him to be dealt.
• Continuing on his busy day, Bill also has quick hits on the Nats.  Of note, prospect-wise, Zimmerman is excpected to take the next step. And, if [the Nationals] are out of the race by July, look for Soriano to be traded for prospects.  What level prospects they can expect are open to debate.  Much of this will be decided by how well Soriano plays in LF, not to mention the team that comes calling.  Teams the Nationals hope come calling (i.e. strong farm systems):  Boston, Anaheim, Atlanta, Los Angeles, or Arizona.
• Finally, MLB.com links to the MiLB.com organizational report for the Nationals.  Kevin Czerwinski covers most of the notable prospects (Casto, Everts, Desmond, Diaz, Hinckley, Watson, and Broadway [Larry not Lance] ) as well as some of lesser names (Ivany, San Pedro, and Plasencia).  There’s a good quote from Director of Scouting, Dana Brown, with regards to 2005 draftees Justin Maxwell and Marco Estrada

“Maxwell and Estrada can make big impacts quick. Estrada is a starter with three really good pitches. His stuff is average but his pitchability is real good, and every now and then he’ll reach back and throw harder for strike three. It’s just a matter of him getting used to throwing to professional hitters. Maxwell played really well in the Cape League, and he had some good years at Maryland. But he didn’t play a lot of college ball because he was hurt. Still, here’s a guy that’s talented and has a history of doing well with a wood bat. He can really turn the corner because he’s such a special makeup kid. He’s the first one in there in the morning and the last one to leave. He’s working hard to make up for lost time.”

The Big Board is updated as soon as every change happens so keep an eye on it as spring training winds down and then as the minor league teams set up their rosters.

Bergmann, Bray, Gryboski, and Hughes are the only pitchers in camp (besides Lawrence, Ayala, and Drese who are still being counted) not in the 11 that have recently begun to be presumed to make the Opening Day roster. Those eleven: SP: Patterson, Livan, Ortiz, Astacio, Armas RP: Cordero, F-Rod, Majewski, Stanton, Eischen, Rauch If Eischen isn’t ready, one of the 4 pitchers listed above may take his spot.

25th man competition: Backup Catcher (Wiki vs. Castillo), LeCroy, Jackson, Anderson, Byrd have 5 of 6 bench slots pretty much locked up. I am presuming Fick and Guzman start the year on the DL and Clayton takes Guzman’s starting spot.

That leaves:  The loser of the Watson/Church race vs. a 12th pitcher vs. Brendan Harris vs. Michael Tucker vs. Daryle Ward in a competition for the 25th man on the roster.

I don’t think that the loser of the Watson/Church race needs to be sitting on a bench.  They need to be starting somewhere.  Watson has had a good spring, but Church may make it on his major league experience.  The likelihood of Soriano resigning with the Nats is slim, so there is still a high possibility that he’ll be traded before July 31 (or maybe we keep him and take the draft pick(s) when he signs elsewhere).  In that event, the loser of this race should be ready to step right into Soriano’s spot in the outfield.

I don’t think there’s any reason to carry a 12th pitcher at this point. With Damian Jackson and Marlon Anderson (and Robert Fick soon enough), there really is not a reason to carry a 5th outfielder.  Especially when Tucker’s contract is not guaranteed. Daryle Ward is superfluous at this point, but it’d be nice to have him in the system.

Drumroll… that leaves Brendan Harris as hopefully the 25th man on the team.  His presence allows Jackson to be used in the outfield more freely.

38 guys left in camp, so 13 have to be axed. I presume 5 will start the year on the DL, the 4 pitchers currently not set to make the team, the losers of the 25th man competition, and the loser of Castillo vs. Wiki are those 13.

The Nationals trimmed eight more players from their spring roster leaving 38 in the major league camp. They optioned LHP pitcher Billy Traber to AAA New Orleans. They reassigned RHPs Kyle Denney, Saul Rivera, & Steve Watkins; CA Mike DiFelice; and, OFs Kenny Kelly and George Lombard. They also released LHP Valerio de los Santos per his contract.

Traber has pitched himself into the Nats long term plans as a SP. In 4GS (16IP) with 14H(2HR), 9R(4ER), 1BB, and 9K. Unfortunately for him, he was a victim of a numbers game of guaranteed major league contracts for SPs. With Livan Hernandez, John Patterson, Ramon Ortiz, Pedro Astacio, and Tony Armas ahead of him on the depth chart, Traber will likely be the first one called when the inevitable injury or if any of Ortiz/Astacio/Armas perform poorly. He will get plenty of work in the rotation in New Orleans.

Rivera and Watkins both pitched well enough this spring to be considered the first arms called upon if any of the projected bullpen struggles/is injured. Watkins is probably the favorite who should build on his spring numbers (15IP 10H 0HR 3R 2ER 2HBP 5BB 18K) in New Orleans. As mentioned yesterday, keep an eye on Gary Majewski. Rivera does not have the strikeout ability of Watkins, but has held his own in 7 spring relief appearances (10.2 IP 15H 0HR 3R 3ER 2BB 8K). Rivera should join Watkins and Traber in New Orleans.

Denney had a rough end to his spring, finishing with 15IP 21H 3HR 18R(17ER) 1HBP 5BB 1K. A trip to New Orleans is probable.

DiFelice is the second to fall by the wayside in the backup catcher derby (after Brandon Harper). While his numbers in the spring look good 387/424/484, he’s 36 years old and there is a better offensive catcher than him left in camp (Wiki Gonzalez) as well as better defensive catcher (Alberto Castillo). It wouldn’t surprise me to see DiFelice try and catch on with another team.

Lombard and Kelly will likely man the OF in New Orleans with Ty Godwin in 2006. That is unless Brandon Watson or Ryan Church are optioned down, in which case Kelly, Godwin and Lombard will platoon in the corner OF slots while Watson/Church work out in CF. Lombard had a non-descript spring 226/294/419 in 31AB, he has an interesting combinationof speed and power but is realistically a AAAA OF. Kelly impressed Robinson this spring 344/432/344 in 32AB. “He has turned it around 150 percent than he was last year,” Robinson said. “He had great at-bats and has great speed. He plays good defense, has a good arm and an outstanding personality. He brings energy to the ballclub. He makes things happen.” The problem is that each of Kelly’s 11H were singles. He projects well as a PR/defensive replacement in the OF.

de los Santos did nothing to impress (7IP 14H 3HR 12R 9ER 5BB 7K) in his time in camp. He’s a LOOGY so he’ll likely catch on somewhere.

Spring Training (Defeated Orioles 1-0)

• Brendan Harris 3B - 0/1
• Saul Rivera RP - 1IP 2H 0R 0BB 1K

Spring Training (Lost to Cardinals 9-3)

• Brendan Harris 3B - 1/1
• Kenny Kelly RF - 1/1 2RBI
• Josh Labandeira PR - 0/0
• Brandon Watson PH/CF - 0/2
• Kyle Denney SP - 6IP 4R(3ER) 2BB 1K
• Steve Watkins* RP - 2IP 0H 0R 0BB 2K 1HBP
• Bill Bray RP - 1IP 0H 0R 0BB 1K

• Steve Watkins has pitched himself to the front of the line in the race for the first RP called on when injuries/struggles happen with the Nationals.  In 7 spring training games, Watkins has thrown 15 innings allowing 10 hits, 3 runs (2 earned), 2HBP, 5BB, and 18K.  Keep an eye on Gary Majewski who has appeared a bit rusty and hittable in his WBC and brief spring training time on the mound.