During his weekly chat, Washington Post columnist, Tom Boswell, had this exchange with a chatter with regards to Nationals LH SP prospect, Mike Hinckley.
Manassas, Va.: Mr. Boswell:Whatever happened to Mike Hinckley? I heard a lot about him last spring, but nothing since. The talk was that he was a hot propect. Tom Boswell: The stautus of supposed “prospects” changes constantly. I said last spring that Hinckley looked like a soft-tosser to me, which isn’t what you uisually [sic] want in young pitchers.
I will admit that I don’t have the breadth of experience that Mr. Boswell does regarding baseball, but I do know one thing very well. You cannot make a snap judgement on a player based upon a small sample size. Not to mention a judgement based upon a performance by an injured player. More after the jump.
Mike Hinckley’s performance in the Spring of 2005 was completely surprising to the Nationals. In his first invitation to the big league camp, Hinckley looked terrible in 3G (1GS). He threw only 6IP giving up 14H 9R(8ER) while walking 5 and only striking out 3. It was initially thought that he had a slight shoulder strain. But it was enough to get him demoted to High A Potomac for the 2005 season after finishing 2004 in AA Harrisburg.
While in Potomac, Hinckley continued his troublesome pattern. In 22G (21GS) Hinckley’s preformance in comparison to his career thus far was totally unexpected:
| IP | H/9IP | HR/9IP | WHIP | BB/9IP | K/9IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-2004 | 393.2 | 7.50 | 0.46 | 1.12 | 2.58 | 7.57 |
| 2005 | 127.2 | 10.64 | 0.70 | 1.58 | 3.60 | 5.64 |
It was clear that something had to be wrong. Hinckley had gone from one of Baseball America’s top LHP prospects to nothing more than an organizational guy … at best. This was a guy with a fastball in the 89-92 mph range (topping off at 94) with the ability to hold it deep into games. This was complemented by a 76-78 mph curveball with good bite and depth and an average chageup. But in 2005, his fastball was only in the 80s and his curve had lost most of its bite.
At the end of the season, Hinckley and the Nationals had their answer. Hinckley had an impingement in his shoulder that had adversely affected his ability to pitch. In the offseason, he had an arthroscopic procedure to release the posterior capsule in his shoulder.
Hinckley is now back on track with the Nationals. He is expected to begin the season again at Potomac, but this is more a precaution to allow him to feel comfortable with his repaired shoulder. A quick promotion to Harrisburg is not out of the question. And ideally, Hinckley will seriously compete for a spot in the Washington rotation, perhaps as soon as 2007.
While major league success is still unknown, simply dismissing Hinckley as a “soft-tosser” who will not succeed is not correct.
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