I was asked over at Yuda’s to provide a general rule of thumb regarding the appropriate age for a player to be considered a “prospect” at each level. While there is no 100% answer to that question, the most common thinking is as follows:
- AAA: 22-23 years old
- AA: 21-22 years old
- A Advanced: 20-21 years old
- A: 19-20 years old
- Short Season and Rookie Ball are often used for rehabilitation and initial introduction to recent draft picks/free agent signings. It’s difficult to really pigeonhole an age for these levels, but suffice it to say if a player spends more than 1 season there, he isn’t likely to be a prospect of note.
Keep in mind that injuries will often lead to guys being “under-assigned”. Case in point is Mike Hinckley (23). He would be considered “old” for A Advanced, but given his recovery from shoulder surgery, a stop in Potomac is not unusual and is not necessarily a strike against him prospect-wise.
The genesis of this question was discussion regarding 2005 draft pick, Justin Maxwell. The 22-year old Maxwell is currently in Florida in extended spring training and rumors have him starting his season this June in Vermont. This does not mean that his days as a prospect are over. Maxwell missed most of 2005 with another injury, a broken arm, and by the time he signed, the minor league season had ended. Compound this with the cancellation of the Dominican developmental league and it left him in need of work to get himself back in game shape. It is certainly too soon to write Maxwell off as a failed prospect, but the pressure will be on him to deliver in Vermont to not fall off the prospect radar.
Question for NatsFarm | 25-Apr-06 at 4:58 pm | Permalink
Don’t you also have to make an adjustment to those guidelines for college players that start their pro careers at age 20-21 rather than 18 or younger, as high school and international players would? And position changes? For example, Kory Casto was drafted in 2003 as an outfielder out of Univ. Portland at age 21. He’s now 24 in AA, and now a 3B, but still considered one of the top prospects in the Nationals’ system.
Tom | 25-Apr-06 at 8:54 pm | Permalink
There is definitely different time frame for “prospects” depending whether they were drafted out of high school or college. The college window is much shorter. The other factor of course is how much money the team paid the player on signing. The more you get the longer the team will stay with a player. (I look at Mike’s 2002 Vermont team and only 8 of 31 players are still in the Nat’s system) Unfortunately, Cory’s star will dim quickly if he does not show rapid improvement. It will stay bright if he continues hitting like he did last year. Then of course he has to leap over players above him in the system. It is quite possible that he get stuck behind R Zimmerman and then he’ll have to look for another position, get traded or stagnate. That’s the life a minor league “prospect”. AAA is full of Cory’s. Too bad he’s not a SS. 3B, 2B and the outfield is full of long term contracts and one “can’t miss future superstar”. Cory’s bat needs to continue to force the Nat’s to make favorable decisions.
Brian J Oliver | 26-Apr-06 at 5:21 am | Permalink
There is a definitely a different schedule for college versus high school players (see the Justin Maxwell example). However, the timeline for a college player is certainly more condensed. While a 17-year old out of high school can slowly go from level to level on his way to the majors, college players who are normally difference-makers need to accelerate that process. A college drafted player has to be added to the 40-man roster or potentially be lost in the Rule V draft after their 3rd professional season. That means the 23-24 year old guy really needs to be no lower than AA and performing well. The Nationals have some nice guys in their prospect pool but the number of premium guys are just not there right now. The reason that Zimmerman was able to get himself to the majors so quickly was not only his ability coming out of college but the fact that the guys ahead of him in the system were not necessarily fast-track guys.
My point with the age range was more to give a general age to look for but realize that if a guys is one year older than the range doesn’t always make him less a prospect, it’s more a reference to look at guys like Dee Haynes from 2005 who was 26 years old and smacking around AA pitching.
Thanks for stopping by and let me know if you have any other questions.