Because it directly affects the state of the Nationals’ farm system, I thought we should write something on trading Alfonso Soriano — you know, before it actually happens; it is the hottest story in baseball, after all.
Soriano is a free agent at the end of the year. If the team doesn’t trade him now (and isn’t able to re-sign him in the offseason), the Nationals will receive a 1st round draft pick and a “sandwich” pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds from the team that does sign him. Or, if a team with a win-loss record in the bottom 15 of 30 teams signs him, a sandwich pick and a 2nd round pick ). Draft picks that high are wonderful but they are also wonderfully risky.
Don’t forget that the Nationals traded hometown favorite Brad Wilkerson (actually two years of Wilk since he won’t be a free agent until next offseason; also, his 2006 salary is $3.9M compared to Soriano’s $10M), a 4th outfielder, and a minor league arm for Soriano. The trade was highly ridiculed at the time: Soriano has been regarded as just a free-swinging slugger who can steal before this season. However, Soriano has done what no one (well, except maybe Chris) thought he could do: hit home runs in RFK Stadium just as well as any other stadium. On top of that, he’s been getting on base — taking walks at a career-high pace — and he’s still been stealing like crazy (including numerous steals of third base which are so fun to watch). If he really focuses on steals the rest of the season, the guy has a chance for a 50-50 season (only 3 players have ever even managed 40-40: Jose Canseco in 1988, Barry Bonds in 1996, and Alex Rodriguez in 1998).
So why not keep him? Well, I’m sorry folks, but there’s no way the Nationals make the playoffs this year. Sure, Soriano is a treasure to watch every game, but if you can get something for him in a lost season, why not do it? That’s what they need: 2 or 3 good prospects who are pretty close to the majors and who are not as risky as two draft picks. And you know what? No one says we can’t still try to re-sign Soriano in the offseason.
Ryan Zimmerman | 25-Jul-06 at 1:08 pm | Permalink
I feel EXACTLY the same way.
Ric | 25-Jul-06 at 6:53 pm | Permalink
Whether to trade depends on (1) return and (2) whether the Nationals plan to make an effort to sign Soriano long-term. If the Nationals can get a top young player(s) as part of the return, like Maybin from Detroit or McCarthy from Chicago or Hughes from the Yankees or Wood from the Angels, then they should make the trade. Period. But, if the return is limited to mid-tier prospects, I’d probably rather have them take the picks and build through the draft. The team is building for 2008-2010, and mid-tier guys don’t help much with that plan. But, if they plan to try to sign Soriano, and think it’s really possible that a deal will get done, the picks won’t be available, so they should take what you can get. Next year is supposed to be a pretty good year for college and high school talent, though, and having the three of the top 40 picks would be great.