Nationals Farm Authority

I’m still working on some confirmation regarding the rumors of the Nationals shifting their AAA affiliation from New Orleans to Norfolk.

Here is what I can find from some simple searches:

1. The Ottawa Lynx of the International League (presently the AAA affiliate of the Baltimore Orioles) have told the city of Ottawa that they plan to move.
2. The Phillies will be leaving their present location in Scranton-Wilkes Barre, another International League team.
3. The understanding is that the Lynx will be relocating to Allentown, PA as an affiliate of the Philadelphia Phillies in the International League. Allentown is just 45 miles* from Philadelphia while Scranton is 100 miles.
4. Scranton has a stadium available and will almost certainly receive an affiliate in 2007
5. The article linked in (2) suggest that the possible teams moving to Scranton as the following teams from the International League: Baltimore (from Ottawa), the New York Yankees (from Columbus), the New York Mets (from Norfolk), or the Chicago White Sox (from Charlotte); or, the Washington Nationals from Pacific Coast League New Orleans.

Here is the breakdown of likelihood of movement to Scranton:

• Ottawa (Orioles): This would seem the easiest move as it involves the least teams switching places. It has the added bonus (at least for Orioles owner Peter Angelos) of establishing an Orioles presence in Pennsylvania.
• Columbus (Yankees): This to me seems to be the longest shot. The Yankees have been affiliated with Columbus for 27 years and Scranton would be significantly closer to the Bronx than Columbus (485 to 100 miles). But in February 2006, plans were announced that a new stadium will be built in the Arena District of downtown Columbus. Play is expected to begin at the new stadium in the 2008 season. I would seem odd for the Yankees to abandon Columbus right when a new ballpark was on the horizon.
• Norfolk (Mets): This is another one that would seem peculiar as the Mets have had an association with Norfolk since 1969 (then the Tidewater Tides). The only positive I can envision of such a move is reducing the distance between Flushing, NY and their AAA affiliate from 300 (Norfolk) to 100 miles (Scranton).
• Charlotte (White Sox): While this is one of the more recent affiliations (started in 1998), it would seem peculiar for Chicago to move further north (their rough distance from Chicago would increase from 590 to 620 miles). And while Chicago moving to New Orleans (if the Nationals were to leave) would put them in the same time zone, it would actually move their affiliate further away (820 miles). A move to New Orleans would put the White Sox in PCL competition with the crosstown rival Cubs (Iowa) among other central teams (Cincinnati, Kansas City, Houston, Milwaukee, and St Louis)
• New Orleans (Nationals): Anywhere in the International League would be closer and in many ways better than New Orleans. The Nationals are now almost 1,000 miles from their AAA affiliate making it difficult to keep an eye on the players most often recalled to Washington as well as rehabbing players.

The Nationals move to Norfolk seems really difficult, and it’s hard for me to imagine the Mets leaving a state-of-the-art ballpark in Norfolk without some serious enticement from the folks in Scranton. If it were to happen, it would be a significant shift of several franchises that may look something like this:

1. Phillies from Scranton to Allentown
2. Mets from Norfolk to Scranton
3. Nationals from New Orleans to Norfolk
4. White Sox from Charlotte to New Orleans
5. Orioles from Ottawa to Charlotte

If I were to hazard a guess (and this is a complete guess). I would envision:

1. Phillies from Scranton to Allentown (moving the Ottawa affiliate)
2. Orioles assuming Scranton (only 150 miles from Baltimore)
3. Nationals and White Sox swapping affiliations. This would put the Nats in Charlotte (330 miles from DC) and the White Sox in New Orleans and the central time zone

Only time will tell. Sometime in the next 4-6 weeks, the affiliation merry-go-round will stop and odds are there will be several teams in new cities.

* Distances are “as the crow flies