Nationals Farm Authority

Thanks to Jim Callis of Baseball America for this bit of information. It’s his understanding the supplemental first round picks will be awarded according to previous year’s record regardless of the type of free agent signed.

In other words, the Cubs will select first in the supplemental first round at #31 for the loss of Juan Pierre and, at present, the Nationals will select at #32 for the loss of Soriano. There are two teams with free agents that can bump the Nationals down a pick: Pittsburgh for Type B Jeromy Burnitz and Baltimore for either Type A Kevin Millar or Type B Latroy Hawkins. If both teams were to require compensation, the Soriano supplemental selection can be no lower than #34.

Given the new set of rules referenced in the new CBA concerning the Rule 5 draft (basically adding one year of protection to all minor leaguers), I’ve tried my best to summarize all players in the Nationals farm system that are Rule 5 eligible.

Players who were 18 or younger on June 5 preceding the signing of their first contract must be protected after five minor league seasons. Players 19 and older must be protected after four seasons.

(Ages are as of the December Rule 5 Draft) 

There are some interesting names on the list. Clint Everts, Ricardo Morales (a LH RP), and Colby Lewis are the three that appear most intriguing to me. Feel free to comment on the ones that you believe bear watching.

First Round 

Supplemental First Round

Second Round

Baseball America has some signings we knew about as well as some signings/releases of which we were previously unaware

Re-signed 2B Daniel Dement, RHP Chris Booker, and SS Marco Yepez

Dement split his 2006 between Harrisburg and New Orleans batting a cumulative 225/308/399 while playing in an utility role. He’s likely to begin the 2007 season in Columbus. Booker was a post-2005 season signing by the Nationals who was lost in the Rule 5 draft to the Detroit Tigers who traded him to the Philadelphia Phillies who then traded him to the Kansas City Royals before returning him to Washinton. He finished the 2006 season in the Nationals bullpen pitching in 10 games (7.33 innings) with a 3.68ERA, 0.82WHIP, 8.6K/9, and 1.2BB/9. He’s currently on the 40-man roster and is likely a candidate for the 2007 bullpen with his low-90s fastball and plus slider. Yepez split his 2006 between Potomac and Harrisburg much like Dement, in an utility role. In 378AB, Yepez batted 270/330/370 with 5 HR and 25/39 stolen bases. He’ll start 2007 in Harrisburg.

Signed LHP Bill White, OF Wayne Lydon, RHP Josh Hall, RHP Colby Lewis, RHP Jim Magrane, RHP Thomas Nall, RHP Jermaine Van Buren, SS Alejandro Machado.

All of these names were previously released by the Nationals. Of note are two players, Jermaine Van Buren and Colby Lewis. Van Buren was added to the Nationals 40-man roster. Like Booker, Van Buren’s repertoire consists of a low-90s fastball and plus slider. He’s likely to compete for a spot in 2007 Nationals bullpen. Lewis is a former Texas Rangers 1999 1st round draft pick who missed the 2004 season after rotator cuff surgery. He’s a prototypical righthanded power pitcher with above average fastball and curveball. With the need for starting pitchers in Washington, Lewis will have every opportunity to prove he’s capable of an opportunity. His 2007 season is likely to begin in Columbus with his early season performance an indicator if he’s ready to help out in Washington.

Released 3B Richard Caputo, RHP Robert Caputo, RHP Josh Palm, SS Brandon Conway

Ricky Caputo was a 2006 24th round draft pick out of Hofstra. He played 3B in Vermont once he signed hitting 180/241/267 in 48 games. Robert Caputo is a RHP who was a 2001 18th round selection. He hasn’t pitched since 2003. Josh Palm was a 2005 draft pick who missed the 2006 season after Tommy John surgery. Brandon Conway retired mid-way through the 2006 season.

For those interested, I will be keeping track of the compensation for Alfonso Soriano in the top right corner. Updates will be made as Type A and B free agents sign.

I touched on this topic a few days ago when the rumors of Soriano’s departure first surfaced. Soriano has passed the physical and the deal is official, so the next step is the waiting game to see where the Nationals ultimately end up.

MLB is operating under a new set of rules with regards to compensating teams for loss of free agents in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). Here is some quick background on the new free agent compensation:

• The pool of Type A players shrinks from top 30% of each position to top 20%, while the Type B player pool will be reduced from the top 31-50% of players to 21-40%
• Type A players will still earn the signing teams first round pick and a supplemental first round pick with one exception
• The first 15 picks of the first round are protected from the above compensation. In these cases, the signing team loses their second round pick (and so forth) 
• In the case where a team signs multiple Type A free agents, the Elias scoring is used to “break ties”
• Teams that lose a Type B free agent will now earn a supplemental first round pick instead of taking selection from club that signed player
• The salary arbitration offer deadline moves to 12/1, while the acceptance deadline moves to 12/7. A player must be offered arbitration in order to return compensation. Players signed prior to arbitration deadline are considered as to have been offered arbitration, thereby requiring compensation

Why is this important?

It will play a huge role in what picks the Nationals receive in return for Alfonso Soriano. As I stated in my prior post, the Nationals will currently receive the Cubs second round selection along with a supplemental first round pick.

The supplemental first round selection is pretty much locked in at no worse than #32. The assigning of supplemental selections is ordered first by Type A compensation and then by Type B. The picks are further broken out based upon previous season’s record. In the Nationals case, there is one team with a Type A free agent who has a worse record than they did in 2006. The Baltimore Orioles and Kevin Millar. If Millar is both offered arbitration and signed by another team, the Nationals would slot in the second position in the supplemental first round.

The other selection has many more moving parts that can impact when the Nationals select. It can shift rounds (not likely) and slide later and later than its initial location as the 33rd selection overall (much more likely).

There is the impact of the Type A free agents. As I detailed in my previous post, the Nationals will need to watch to see if the Chicago Cubs sign any of the Type A free agents ranked higher than Soriano (see table below)

If the Cubs were to sign any of the six remaining free agents listed (not likely given the rumors out there), the Nationals compensation would drop a round for each player signed by the Cubs using the Elias scores as the tiebreaker.

Even if the Nationals retain their claim to the Cubs second round selection, there is an impact of both Type A and Type B free agents on when specifically the Nationals make that selection. According to Baseball America, there are 44 Type A free agents on the market this offseason.

(in order according to Elias scores, read down columns L to R) 

and there are 42 Type B free agents

(in order according to Elias scores, read down columns L to R)  

As of today, four Type A (Alou, Soriano, Speier, and Catalanotto) and five Type B (Stanton, DeRosa, Gonzalez, Thomas, and JWalker) free agents have signed with new teams. This adds nine supplemental first round picks, shifting the Cubs 2nd round pick from #33 to 42. Not all of the remaining players will sign with another team. Nor will they all be offered arbitration on 12/1. But if only 1/4 of them (a conservative estimate) were to receive arbitration and sign with another team, the impact to the second round selection would be a shift of 21 spots (#33 to #53).

The number of supplemental selections is truly an unknown given the CBA’s change in Type B compensation. In the previous agreement, Type B free agents required the signing team’s first round selection. This was a disincentive to signing teams who were hesitant to sacrifice one of their own selections to sign a player who were not even considered in the top third of players, according to Elias. Compensation is now independent from the signing team. Teams may be more willing to sign Type B free agents regardless of the comepnsation issue. The Nationals themselves can impact this with Type B free agents Ramon Ortiz and Jose Guillen out there. It may be in the Nationals best interest to offer arbitration to at the very least Ortiz (if not Guillen) in hopes of adding more selections in the 35-45 range. If this is the case, the Nationals 2nd round selection could realistically slide later and later … perhaps into the low 60s.

The stockpiling of draft picks will clearly be an important part of the rebuilding process and the hot stove bears watching if for no other reason than to see what the ultimate return for Alfonso Soriano will be.

Nationals OF/3B Kory Casto was named to the Arizona Fall League All-Prospects Team. The Team is selected by Fall League managers, coaches, and administrators, identifies the players who distinguished themselves throughout the league’s six-week schedule of games against other top prospects from every organization in Major League Baseball.

John Sickels has his preliminary ranking of the Nationals Top 20 prospects.

1. Chris Marrero, OF, Grade B+  (solid all-around bat)
2. Kory Casto, 3B-OF, Grade B  (old for Double-A but I think he will hit)
3. Colton Willems, RHP, Grade B (very young, a long way from the majors)
4. Zech Zinicola, RHP, Grade B  (will get there a lot faster than Willems but ceiling not as high)
5. Shairon Martis, RHP, B  (this is a generous grade but I like his arm)
6. Shawn Hill, RHP, C+  (gets grounders)
7. Matt Chico, LHP, C+  (number four starter perhaps)
8. Garrett Mock, RHP, C+  (good arm but shaky results)
9. Glenn Gibson, LHP,C+  (like Willems, promising but a long way away)
10. Jhonny Nunez, RHP, C+  (see Gibson and Willems)
11. Stephen King, SS, C+  (Good name but bat a question)
12. Larry Broadway, 1B, C  (getting old, needs a position)
13. Collin Balester, RHP, C  (good arm, terrible numbers)
14. Clint Everts, RHP, C  (good arm, terrible numbers)
15. Brett Campbell, RHP, C  (decent middle relief type)
16. Ian Desmond, SS, C  (I don’t think he will hit)
17. Alexis Morales, RHP, C  (can’t throw strikes)
18. Josh Whitesell, 1B, C  (85% as good as Broadway)
19. Dee Brown Mark II, OF, C  
20. Marco Estrada, RHP, C

While I don’t necessarily agree with his placement of a few players (Balester is too low and Shawn Hill is too high, in my estimation), we do agree the Nationals farm system was empty enough that the acquisitions in the 2006 season heavily populate the tops of our lists (nine of Sickels top eleven; ten of my top thirteen).

John puts together one of the best prospect guides on the market. I highly recommend you checking it out.

It appears that the Chicago Cubs have emerged as the winners of the Alfonso Soriano derby with a contract of 8 years and $136M (though there are reports that is the total value of a deal with all options exercised and the base deal is 6 years and $90M).

What does this mean to the Nationals draft pick compensation?

As a Type A free agent, Soriano returns a first round pick (if not top 15) and a supplemental first round selection. The Chicago Cubs have the third pick in the 2007 First Year Player Draft, so their first rounder is protected. So the Nationals are likely to receive the supplemental first round selection (no worse than the #32 selection … Baltimore’s Kevin Millar is the only Type A from a team with a worse 2006 record than the Nationals) along with the Cubs second round selection with one big assumption.

When a team signs multiple Type A free agents, the tiebreaker is determined by their Elias scores of the players signed. Alfonso Soriano has an Elias score of 80.222. Of the free agents on the market, there are seven free agents with higher scores than Soriano. They are:

• Andy Pettitte 89.624
• Moises Alou 86.444
• Barry Zito 85.196
• JD Drew 85.111
• Ray Durham 82.251
• Carlos Lee 80.833
• Bengie Molina 80.476

The Nationals need to watch to see if the Cubs sign any of the seven players listed above. If that were to happen, the pick awarded to the Nationals would slip a round for every one of those players signed by the Cubs.

The likelihood the Cubs sign any of those seven is pretty remote, but it does bear watching.

Now that the US-based Fall/Winter leagues are coming to a close, Baseball America has ranked their top 20 Arizona Fall League (AFL) and top 15 Hawaii Winter Baseball (HWB) prospects. The Nationals place two players on the list, 3B/OF Kory Casto as #14 in the AFL and RHSP Marco Estrada as #10 in HWB.

Casto is the organization’s back-to-back minor league player of the year. The 24-year old Casto shifted back to LF from 3B in 2006 after the Nationals acquisition of 3B Ryan Zimmerman. Casto spent his entire season in AA Harrisburg where he batted 272/379/468 over 140 games. Casto started off red hot in the AFL before a two-week break to get married and go on his honeymoon. His final AFL numbers were 302/471/434 in 15 games for the Peoria Saguaros. He showed a solid eye at the plate where he walked 17 times while only striking out 12 times in 53 at-bats. While Casto played the majority of his games in the field in left, his final few games saw him shift to center. Jim Bowden has said Casto would be given an opportunity to compete for the 2007 starting job in leftfield, assuming free agent Alfonso Soriano signs elsewhere as is expected.

Estrada’s placement is a pleasant surprise. A separated shoulder delayed his 2006 season. But, once he got started in the Gulf Coast League, Estrada opened some eyes The 23-year old righthander impressed in five appearances (four starts) with 23.67 innings, an ERA of 1.52, 0.84 WHIP, 10.3K/9, 2.3BB/9, and a 0.165 opponents batting average against (OppBAA). He has a repertoire of a low-90s fastball, low-80s curveball, and a developing changeup. His performance earned him a jump up to Savannah where after initially struggling, he finished the year acceptably. In 8 games in Savannah (all starts), Estrada compiled 37 innings with a 5.59ERA, 1.57WHIP, 7.1K/9, 3.4BB/9, and a 0.301 OppBAA. While pitching for the Waikiki BeachBoys, Estrada put up an 0-2 record in 8G(7GS) through November 16 with an 1.32ERA, 1.21WHIP, and 0.192 OppBAA. In 27.33 innings pitched, Estrada has struck out 32 hitters while walking 14. Baseball America compared Estrada favorably to New York Yankees 2006 1st rounder Ian Kennedy, stating that Estrada compared in stuff/profile to Kennedy without the pedigree. Given his off-season performance, the Nationals may want to challenge Estrada with a 2007 placement in Harrisburg’s starting rotation to see how he reacts.

Arizona Fall League (Peoria Saguaros)

• 11/15: Lost to Grand Canyon 10-3

E: Bynum (4, fielding)

Balk: Perrin

• 11/16: Defeated Mesa 5-0

SB: Bynum (1)

• Season completed for Saguaros

Hawaii Winter Baseball (Waikiki BeachBoys)

• 11/15: Lost to Honolulu 2-1

• 11/16: No game
• 11/17: versus West Oahu 1:30AM (Saturday)