It appears that the Chicago Cubs have emerged as the winners of the Alfonso Soriano derby with a contract of 8 years and $136M (though there are reports that is the total value of a deal with all options exercised and the base deal is 6 years and $90M).
What does this mean to the Nationals draft pick compensation?
As a Type A free agent, Soriano returns a first round pick (if not top 15) and a supplemental first round selection. The Chicago Cubs have the third pick in the 2007 First Year Player Draft, so their first rounder is protected. So the Nationals are likely to receive the supplemental first round selection (no worse than the #32 selection … Baltimore’s Kevin Millar is the only Type A from a team with a worse 2006 record than the Nationals) along with the Cubs second round selection with one big assumption.
When a team signs multiple Type A free agents, the tiebreaker is determined by their Elias scores of the players signed. Alfonso Soriano has an Elias score of 80.222. Of the free agents on the market, there are seven free agents with higher scores than Soriano. They are:
- Andy Pettitte 89.624
- Moises Alou 86.444
- Barry Zito 85.196
- JD Drew 85.111
- Ray Durham 82.251
- Carlos Lee 80.833
- Bengie Molina 80.476
The Nationals need to watch to see if the Cubs sign any of the seven players listed above. If that were to happen, the pick awarded to the Nationals would slip a round for every one of those players signed by the Cubs.
The likelihood the Cubs sign any of those seven is pretty remote, but it does bear watching.
Screech'sBestFriend | 19-Nov-06 at 10:33 pm | Permalink
Just to clarify, so I understand this draft pick situation. The Supplemental Pick, as you commented, most likely no worse than #32, is in place of the Cubs #3 pick overall (which is protected) this coming June for Alfonso signing with Chicago. And, the Sandwich Pick to Washington, also for Soriano signing with the Cubs, is assigned by MLB Later, after these supplemental picks? Most likely #40 or so overall? Any help would be appreciated. Thanks.
Ric | 20-Nov-06 at 12:22 am | Permalink
No, the “supplemental” pick is the “sandwich” pick. So, because the Cubs signed Soriano, the Nats will not get two first rounders. They in fact will get a supplemental first (#31 or #32) and the Cubs second round pick (probably around #45 or so). And, if the Cubs sign any of the other 7 higher rated free agents, it will slip a round for each of the 7 signed.
Brian J Oliver | 20-Nov-06 at 6:37 am | Permalink
Thanks Ric. That would be the Cliff Notes version.
benji | 20-Nov-06 at 10:16 am | Permalink
tHAT’S ANNOYING. i’D RATHER HAVE 2 FIRST ROUNDS(1ST AND A SANDWHICH) THEN A SANDWHICH AND SND ROUND. THEY SHOULDN’T BE PROTECTED.
Brian J Oliver | 20-Nov-06 at 10:18 am | Permalink
The reason they are protected is to encourage the worst teams to go after the bigger name free agents, in hopes of balancing the playing field.
Ryan Sullivan | 20-Nov-06 at 10:46 am | Permalink
Brian-
So the Nats will have 4 picks in the top 50 next June? That should help further jumpstart the farm system.
Ric | 20-Nov-06 at 9:34 pm | Permalink
That’s about right, depending on how many sandwich picks are awarded and who else the Cubs might sign. As of now, the Nats will have #6 (their pick), #31/32 (Soriano sandwich pick), approximately #45 (Cubs 2d from Soriano signing — last year the 3d pick of Round 2 was #47) and approximately #48 (their 2d round pick). If the Cubs sign one or more of the 7 higher-ranked free agents that Brian identified in the original post, the Cubs 2d would slip to a Cubs 3d or lower.
Also, note that (I believe) Jose Guillen and Ramon Ortiz are Type B free agents. Supposedly, under the new labor deal, the old compensation rules apply this year. So, in theory, if the Nats offered arbitration and these players signed with another team, the Nats would be due another first round pick from the signing team (the compensatory pick would slip to later rounds if (A) the signing team’s record was in the worst half of baseball, like the Cubs or (B) the signing team signs one or more higher-ranked free agents.
Brian J Oliver | 21-Nov-06 at 5:26 am | Permalink
Actually, the Type B compensation was changed in the new CBA which applies to this offseason … Type B guys return a supplemental first round selection, the signing team no longer loses a pick.
Ryan Sullivan | 21-Nov-06 at 10:03 am | Permalink
Brian-
With the Nats choosing to be so stingy with their payroll, should we expect them to offer arbitration to Ramon Ortiz in hopes of getting a pick in return, or will they shy away from him potentially accepting arbitration?