Nationals Farm Authority

For those interested, I will be keeping track of the compensation for Alfonso Soriano in the top right corner. Updates will be made as Type A and B free agents sign.

I touched on this topic a few days ago when the rumors of Soriano’s departure first surfaced. Soriano has passed the physical and the deal is official, so the next step is the waiting game to see where the Nationals ultimately end up.

MLB is operating under a new set of rules with regards to compensating teams for loss of free agents in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). Here is some quick background on the new free agent compensation:

• The pool of Type A players shrinks from top 30% of each position to top 20%, while the Type B player pool will be reduced from the top 31-50% of players to 21-40%
• Type A players will still earn the signing teams first round pick and a supplemental first round pick with one exception
• The first 15 picks of the first round are protected from the above compensation. In these cases, the signing team loses their second round pick (and so forth) 
• In the case where a team signs multiple Type A free agents, the Elias scoring is used to “break ties”
• Teams that lose a Type B free agent will now earn a supplemental first round pick instead of taking selection from club that signed player
• The salary arbitration offer deadline moves to 12/1, while the acceptance deadline moves to 12/7. A player must be offered arbitration in order to return compensation. Players signed prior to arbitration deadline are considered as to have been offered arbitration, thereby requiring compensation

Why is this important?

It will play a huge role in what picks the Nationals receive in return for Alfonso Soriano. As I stated in my prior post, the Nationals will currently receive the Cubs second round selection along with a supplemental first round pick.

The supplemental first round selection is pretty much locked in at no worse than #32. The assigning of supplemental selections is ordered first by Type A compensation and then by Type B. The picks are further broken out based upon previous season’s record. In the Nationals case, there is one team with a Type A free agent who has a worse record than they did in 2006. The Baltimore Orioles and Kevin Millar. If Millar is both offered arbitration and signed by another team, the Nationals would slot in the second position in the supplemental first round.

The other selection has many more moving parts that can impact when the Nationals select. It can shift rounds (not likely) and slide later and later than its initial location as the 33rd selection overall (much more likely).

There is the impact of the Type A free agents. As I detailed in my previous post, the Nationals will need to watch to see if the Chicago Cubs sign any of the Type A free agents ranked higher than Soriano (see table below)

PLAYER	SCORE	OLD	NEW
Pettitte, Andy	89.624	HOU
Alou, Moises	86.444	SF	NYM
Zito, Barry	85.196	OAK
Drew, J.D.	85.111	LAD
Durham, Ray	82.251	SF
Lee, Carlos	80.833	TEX
Molina, Bengie	80.476	TOR
Soriano, Alfonso	80.222	WAS	CHC

If the Cubs were to sign any of the six remaining free agents listed (not likely given the rumors out there), the Nationals compensation would drop a round for each player signed by the Cubs using the Elias scores as the tiebreaker.

Even if the Nationals retain their claim to the Cubs second round selection, there is an impact of both Type A and Type B free agents on when specifically the Nationals make that selection. According to Baseball America, there are 44 Type A free agents on the market this offseason.

Name	Name	Name	Name
Pettitte, Andy	Gonzalez, Luis	Huff, Aubrey	Lugo, Julio
Alou, Moises	Suppan, Jeff	Clemens, Roger	Graffanino, Tony
Zito, Barry	Matthews Jr, Gary	Bonds, Barry	Guardado, Eddie
Drew, J.D.	Maddux, Greg	Weathers, David	Dellucci, David
Durham, Ray	Speier, Justin	Baez, Danys	Roberts, Dave
Lee, Carlos	Loretta, Mark	Hernandez, Roberto	Millar, Kevin
Molina, Bengie	Belliard, Ronnie	Gagne, Eric	Riske, David
Soriano, Alfonso	Lieberthal, Mike	Borowski, Joe	Catalanotto, Frank
Schmidt, Jason	Aurilia, Rich	Hermanson, Dustin	Springer, Russ
Glavine, Tom	Floyd, Cliff	Williams, Woody	Seanez, Rudy
Piazza, Mike	Walker, Todd	Fultz, Aaron	Bradford, Chad

(in order according to Elias scores, read down columns L to R) 

and there are 42 Type B free agents

Name	Name	Name	Name
Zaun, Gregg	Weaver, Jeff	Schoeneweis, Scott	Stanton, Mike
Lofton, Kenny	Villone, Ron	Helling, Rick	Kennedy, Adam
Counsell, Craig	Marquis, Jason	Batista, Miguel	Payton, Jay
Mulder, Mark	Walker, Jamie	Hillenbrand, Shea	Oliver, Darren
Thomas, Frank	Mercker, Kent	Ortiz, Ramon	DeRosa, Mark
Lilly, Ted	Pierre, Juan	Ohka, Tomo	Barajas, Rod
Nixon, Trot	Meche, Gil	Foulke, Keith	Burnitz, Jeromy
Gonzalez, Alex	Padilla, Vicente	Feliz, Pedro	Mota, Guillermo
Conine, Jeff	Park, Chan Ho	Embree, Alan	Mesa, Jose
Wilson, Preston	Guillen, Jose	Klesko, Ryan	.
Wells, David	Rhodes, Arthur	Hawkins, LaTroy	.

(in order according to Elias scores, read down columns L to R)  

As of today, four Type A (Alou, Soriano, Speier, and Catalanotto) and five Type B (Stanton, DeRosa, Gonzalez, Thomas, and JWalker) free agents have signed with new teams. This adds nine supplemental first round picks, shifting the Cubs 2nd round pick from #33 to 42. Not all of the remaining players will sign with another team. Nor will they all be offered arbitration on 12/1. But if only 1/4 of them (a conservative estimate) were to receive arbitration and sign with another team, the impact to the second round selection would be a shift of 21 spots (#33 to #53).

The number of supplemental selections is truly an unknown given the CBA’s change in Type B compensation. In the previous agreement, Type B free agents required the signing team’s first round selection. This was a disincentive to signing teams who were hesitant to sacrifice one of their own selections to sign a player who were not even considered in the top third of players, according to Elias. Compensation is now independent from the signing team. Teams may be more willing to sign Type B free agents regardless of the comepnsation issue. The Nationals themselves can impact this with Type B free agents Ramon Ortiz and Jose Guillen out there. It may be in the Nationals best interest to offer arbitration to at the very least Ortiz (if not Guillen) in hopes of adding more selections in the 35-45 range. If this is the case, the Nationals 2nd round selection could realistically slide later and later … perhaps into the low 60s.

The stockpiling of draft picks will clearly be an important part of the rebuilding process and the hot stove bears watching if for no other reason than to see what the ultimate return for Alfonso Soriano will be.