There has been discussion about the number of players the Nationals lost as part of the AAA portion of the Rule 5 draft. Those players were:
- James Henderson RHP to the Cubs
- Salomon Manriquez CA to the Rockies
- Trey Webb MI to the Giants
- Josh Labandeira MI to the Marlins
- Brandon Powell 3B to the Padres
- Ricardo Morales LHP to the Mets
- Jose Contreras MI to the Cardinals
While this on the surface appears to be a substantial number, when you dig a little bit deeper and look at their age versus level, the picture becomes clearer.
Back when I started this site, I listed the “optimum” ages for prospects at each level as follows:
- AAA: 22-23 years old
- AA: 21-22
- High A: 20-21
- Low A: 19-20
You can fudge around the margins by roughly one year for guys who have the potential to perhaps have some chance of making the 40-man roster at some point in their career, likely in utility/relief roles.
Now here is a list of the players the Nationals lost in the AAA portion of the draft along with their age during the season, 2006 level(s) they pitched, and highest level they pitched.
| Player | Age | 2006 Level(s) | Highest Level (Yr) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Henderson | 24 | High A/Low A | High A (2006) |
| Salomon Manriquez | 23 | AA | AA (2006) |
| Trey Webb | 24 | High A/AA | AA (2006) |
| Josh Labandeira | 27 | AAA | MLB (2004) |
| Brandon Powell | 26 | High A | High A (2006) |
| Ricardo Morales | 22 | Low A/AA | AA (2006) |
| Jose Contreras | 21 | Low A | Low A (2006) |
As you can see, all of these players are at the high end of the optimum age range for guys who can be viewed as long term options. Each player on the list are organizational type players. There were only two names on the list that were tough losses, Salomon Manriquez and Ricardo Morales.
Manriquez was the Nationals catching prospect closest to the major leagues, but he had faced his challenges defensively. The acquisition of Jesus Flores in the major leagues and the presence of Devin Ivany behind him made Manriquez expendable.
Morales is a soft-tossing lefthanded SP/RP whose ceiling appeared to be a spot starter/middle relief pitcher. His value was more in the fact he was lefthanded, but again the Nationals acquired a similar guy to Morales in Justin Jones in today’s Rule 5 draft.
Of the remaining five lost, cases could have been made for protecting them, but in the end there were other options within the organization to replace them in Harrisburg or Columbus in 2007.
Eric | 07-Dec-06 at 2:59 pm | Permalink
Just curious - if the Nats minor league system is so bad, why would the other major league teams pick more Nats players than any other team (8 Nats taken in the Rule 5, the Cubs had the next most taken with 5), especially if they have to keep these guys on their roster all season long?
Brian J Oliver | 07-Dec-06 at 3:12 pm | Permalink
These were selections in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft. They do not have to be kept on the 25-man roster. Players selected in the major league portion (Jesus Flores and Levale Speigner as examples the Nats selected) have to be protected.
The seven guys listed above are organizational guys. They will be used to fill in somewhere between A and AAA ball for the teams selecting them.
VladiHondo | 07-Dec-06 at 4:00 pm | Permalink
Salomon Manriquez has since been sold to the Texas Rangers.
Simon Oliver Lockwood | 08-Dec-06 at 8:39 am | Permalink
Is there a list of the guys the Nats did protect for the minor league portion of the draft? Are there any situations of, “Why did they protect him?”
Ryan Heimberger | 08-Dec-06 at 11:14 am | Permalink
I don’t see any of these as major losses.
Josh Labandeira was considered a decent prospect at one time, but that has since passed with him still in AAA at age 27.
Dylan Murphy | 08-Dec-06 at 12:31 pm | Permalink
The Nationals can spin it any way they want to, however, even though the players that were lost were not considered Major League caliber, they don’t have the depth in the organization to replace them. If you thought the minor league system was thin before, they just lost some of the best organizational guys they have. This certainly won’t help their poor minor league track record over the years.
dd | 08-Dec-06 at 1:00 pm | Permalink
You claim optimum ages for prospects at each level.
I understand the ages cited are just suggestions, but how could Justin Maxwell fit into this range? Is he a way overhyped, over the hill prospect?
Ric | 08-Dec-06 at 4:39 pm | Permalink
Brian had a long discussion about this at the time of his original post — basically, for players that are drafted out of college rather than HS, add a year to his suggestions. Then add a year for serious injuries (Maxwell has missed large portions of two seasons because of injury). This is a critical year for Maxwell. Ideally, you’d like to see him start at Potomac, or at least get there by the halfway point (and hopefully get to Harrisburg by the end of the year). Anything short of finishing the year strong in Potomac would be viewed as a disappointment, I would think.
jbrian | 08-Dec-06 at 7:57 pm | Permalink
i can assure you mr oliver that trey webb is not and organizational type player. he will be in triple A next year with the giants. he led potomac in doubles and triples before going to harrisburg this year. he made he allstar team and was probably the best defensive 2nd baseman in the nats system
Wooden U. Lykteneau | 09-Dec-06 at 10:17 am | Permalink
Brian - Can you point us towards the rules for the AAA portion of the Rule 5 draft? Is there an equivalent 40-man roster for the minors?
Brian J Oliver | 09-Dec-06 at 1:14 pm | Permalink
Ric - Thanks for answer … that hits the nail on the head
jbrian - I appreciate your perspective. Webb looked OK early on but seemed to wear down as the season progressed. From everything I can tell Seth Bynum passed him within the organization’s eyes (earlier promotion/invite to Arizona Fall League). I hope Trey has great success in SF. But I stand by my opinion that there are options within the organization that can adequately replace him.
WUL - Those rosters are not publicly released. As for the rules. I found this from Sons of Sam Horn and it captures the AAA/AA portions
There are also two minor league phases to the Rule 5 draft: the AAA and AA phase. In addition to setting a 40-man roster, organizations are required to submit a AAA and AA roster of players eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Note that these rosters are larger than regular-season AAA and AA rosters and their composition during this phase is determined by the organizations evaluation of a player, not the player’s current level; the organization will place players they value more highly on the AAA roster.
After the Major League phase, the AAA phase takes place, in which other organizations can pluck players on other teams’ AA rosters. During the AA phase, organizations can take Rule 5-eligible players on neither roster. The minor league Rule 5 draft is primarily a roster-filling exercise and players taken rarely reach the major leagues, not to mention establish themselves as big-league players. Unlike the Major League phase, players drafted in the AAA phase are not required to play at AAA, nor are AA draftees required to play in AA. It costs $12,000 to select a player in the AAA phase and $4,000 in the AA phase.
jbrian | 09-Dec-06 at 10:33 pm | Permalink
the reason trey wore down toward end of season is because he lost 25 lbs.when you are in High A or double A you are traveling on buses until we hours of the morning. he did not get to work out. when he started out with his weight on him he was red hot. look at his stats the first half and you will see why he made the allstar team. as for the rules of the triple a draft you better do a little more research because san fran has to keep trey on the AAA team all year or put him back on waivers.
Brian J Oliver | 10-Dec-06 at 6:30 am | Permalink
as for the rules of the triple a draft you better do a little more research because san fran has to keep trey on the AAA team all year or put him back on waivers
The rule actually is they should be offered an opportunity to remain at the level they are selected but it is not required. A case in point is Brandon Powell. The Nationals selected him the AA portion of the 2005 Rule 5 draft but he played the entire season at High A Potomac.
Wooden U. Lykteneau | 10-Dec-06 at 10:58 am | Permalink
I find it hard to believe that Webb lost 25 lbs — that’d be quite noticeable on a 5′10″ guy listed at 6′ 170 — and would be AWFULLY suspicious to boot. Ten pounds, maybe. 25? Don’t think so.
jbrian | 12-Dec-06 at 1:44 pm | Permalink
well he did lose 26lbs during the season. trey has to work out everyday to keep his weight on. the same happend to him the year before at savannah. some people have to work out to keep there weight up. when you travel in the minors on buses unitl up in the night and then have to play the next day it is hard to have time to work out. there is nothing suspicious about this. as for the triple a rule 5 draft trey was on some kind of protected list with harrisburg but could still be picked up in the rule 5 draft which has something to do with him having to stay on the triple a roster for san francisco. i have a pretty good inside on trey and also know what his agent has told him. the reason trey did not go to afl was because the nationals told him to go back home and get his weight back to 185 before spring training.
Brian J Oliver | 12-Dec-06 at 2:10 pm | Permalink
jbrian - Make sure you change your name when you post a comment. You’ve been posting comments under the previous commenters name.
Wooden U. Lykteneau | 12-Dec-06 at 7:53 pm | Permalink
jbrian - Do the math. 170-25 = 145 lbs. That’s 15% of his body weight. There are two reasons why someone would lose that much weight that fast: going off steroids or getting cancer. Does Trey look like either case?
Do I have to spell it out: You’re e-x-a-g-g-e-r-a-t-i-n-g.
jbrian | 12-Dec-06 at 10:49 pm | Permalink
you dont know what your talking about. he went to spring training at 185lbs. and when the season was over he was at 160. and no he does not do steriods. he works out really hard in the offseason and eats well. i know what i am talking about. you don’t. he is my son in law.
Wooden U. Lykteneau | 13-Dec-06 at 9:44 am | Permalink
jbrian - Good for you, but being the father of Trey’s wife does not make you more knowledgeable than a season-ticket hoder who saw Trey play on a day-to-day basis in Woodbridge as a season-ticket holder to the Potomac Nationals (not to mention: a former player, sportswriter and someone who can spell and punctuate properly).
Trey’s dropoff in production in Potomac was more due to the league (a) learning his tendencies (b) impatience at the plate than physically wearing down by ten (10) pounds or so. The only other conclusion to make is that Trey went to Spring Training 15 lbs over his playing weight (he was listed at 170 to 175 everywhere I looked and, as aforementioned, having seen him in person on much more frequent basis than you did this past season, I would agree that 170-175 was about right), which makes sense if he’s “eating well.”
jbrian | 13-Dec-06 at 7:51 pm | Permalink
Excuse me i did not know we were so interested in spelling and punctuation here. You may think you are very smart about guessing weight. Trey left my house in march of 2006 weighing 185 lbs. That is a fact. He did that by working very hard and eating healthy. I have heard a lot of comment from fans that went to every game and they thought a lot different of Trey then you did. They said he was and excellent player and they hated to see the nationals lose him. He went to spring training exactly at the weight the nationals ask him to be. 185lbs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. If you were a former player i would bet you did not get past little league are you would not be spending all your time on this blog.This is the last you will here from me (know it all).
Brian J Oliver | 13-Dec-06 at 8:24 pm | Permalink
Guys - Please keep it civil.
jbrian - I appreciate your perspective. Thanks for the point of view from Trey. I’ve done my research and while Trey may have received some assurances from SF that he’ll play in AAA, there is no requirement he has to play there. I wish him nothing but the best.
jbrian143 | 13-Dec-06 at 9:11 pm | Permalink
sorry that guy just gets under my skin. you are a right. i found out that trey does not have to be in triple a next year. he receive a call from the giants and they told him the decision would be made at spring training. thanks for wishing him well. our whole family hopes he does well next year and makes it to the big show. i know he has the potential to do so.
jbrian143 | 13-Dec-06 at 9:12 pm | Permalink
sorry i keep posting under the wrong name.
Wooden U. Lykteneau | 14-Dec-06 at 8:52 am | Permalink
Jbrian - From a fan’s perspective, I was sorry to see Trey go up to Harrisburg, too. I felt he was better off playing everyday and working through his problems (read: plate discipline) as opposed to filling a roster spot that had opened up due to injuries within the system. However, that does not change my opinion as a baseball writer and journalist (read: professionally trained at university School of Journalism). I will repeat myself, Trey’s falloff in production was not for lack of effort, nor was it, as you claim from afar, from losing an undetermined amount of weight, but from what many old-timers would call “word getting around the league.” Trey simply did not adjust back. Doesn’t make him less of a man, or that he’s not a good ballplayer. It just means that it looks like he’s hit his ceiling. After attending (read: watched and kept score) a few hundred minor- and independent-league baseball games, this I can tell.
P.S. You are right in that I did not play much past Little League because I had severe adolescent asthma, which I overcame and eventually became a marathon runner. So I know more than a thing or two about what it takes to gain or lose weight, and more than a little about the hard work it takes to be an athlete.
jbrian143 | 14-Dec-06 at 1:00 pm | Permalink
I appologize to you for the sarcastic comments. I just got a little worked up about what you were saying. I know you are just being honest about what you think. I truly believe they Trey has a chance to do really well if he can keep his focus during the whole season. His agent who is a former major leauge pitcher said that san francisco giants saw something in him they really like. Again I am sorry for the sarcastic comments and hope to hear from you again. I will keep you posted on how Trey is doing and where he ends up AA or AAA. thanks,jbrian
Wooden U. Lykteneau | 14-Dec-06 at 1:44 pm | Permalink
Jbrian- Apology accepted, hatchet buried, etc. Like Brandon Powell, I think Trey would be a monster at the independent level because his flaws are harder to exploit by pitchers who don’t throw as hard and aren’t as accurate. Unlike Brandon, Trey’s defense is solid, which makes him even more valuable. I certainly hope he can stick and “get it” in 2007, just as I do for most of these young kids.
ash | 19-Dec-06 at 2:31 pm | Permalink
I just wanted to put my two cents in and assure everyone on here that I know first hand about Trey Webb. First of all, he has an extremely high metabolism and without working out or supplements is around 160 to 165 lbs and is 6 feet tall. In order to get his weight up to 185 last off season he worked out every day, ate like a horse (I know because I cooked for him), and drank 3-4 protien drinks a day( I also know because I made those). During the season he did more than okay the first half. I know because I went to every game even the out of town ones. Trey hit well over .300 for three quarters of the first half, before falling to about.278 at the all star break. He had I believe 20 doubles or so at half way and made the all star team. The second half was a different story. He did in fact end the season at 160 lbs. and he did not have cancer or use illegal things (like many others that people speak so highly of on here). So, my dad was right about his weight. They are in the heat from 1 to 11 everyday which causes everyone to lose weight. Trey is an extremely good person with great integrity and everything he does reflects that. Trey has genetics against him when it comes to weight but this year he is working even harder than the last and is going to do everything he can do to keep his weight up during the season. He is ecstatic about being with the Giants, and will have an amazing season this year, mark my words! Please, do not talk ugly or make accusations about people on here if you don’t know what you are talking about. These guys are just people with a dream and talent that is capable of accomplishing that dream, and you can’t knock somebody for trying to do that. Especially when most of you on here are not an authority on the subject. A sports writer is a writer, not a sports authority, not a coach within the minor leagues, just a person who is given the opportunity to write their comments about sports. I respect them, don’t get me wrong, but just want to remind you what they are. I do not usually write on things like this nor read them, but when searching for information about the Giants and Trey I found this and was appauled that someone who didn’t know him would insult his integrity and talent. So, you will not here from me anymore, just wanted to remind all of you to admire minor league players and encourage them, because they work hard! -Ashley Webb