Nationals Farm Authority

The 2006 MLB winter meetings begin today in Orlando, FL and according to a report from Barry Svrluga, the Nationals are not likely to be players in the happenings this week. Svrluga highlights a very conservative picture:

“We’re not going to make short-term decisions to improve our team by inches,” General Manager Jim Bowden said. “We’re more interested in improving our team by light years down the road. We will always listen, and kick the tires on any and all transactions that might give us a possibility to improve our long-term plan. But we’re not looking for short-term fixes, because that could hurt the long-term fixes we really need to make.”

The message that has been the mantra of the team is building a foundation for the future through re-establishing the farm system and focusing on player development. There is no question the Naitonals need to resurrect a system that was emptied and ignored during MLB’s stewardship.

The underlying question I have is this.

How can the team expect rebuild its farm system given its proposed conservative strategy which eschews signing any free agents in the near term?

There is merit to this thought when it concerns the signing of Type A free agents. These signings would require the Nationals sacrifice draft picks they require to rebuild the farm system. But in the new collective bargaining agreement, Type B free agents no longer cost a signing team a pick of any sort. An example of this is the apparent loss of OF Jose Guillen to the Seattle Mariners. Guillen, a Type B free agent, will give the Nationals a first round supplemental selection. As of today, this means the Nationals possess five selections out of the first sixty picks in the 2007 draft. This should be valuable in their rebuilding effort.

However, what is puzzling is the Nationals decision to not over arbitration to SP Ramon Ortiz, another Type B free agent, who if signed elsewhere would have returned an additional top sixty selection in the 2007 draft. The reason given by the front office was a concern Ortiz would accept the offer and potentially cost the Nationals “a raise to about $8 million for 2007.” I can only conjecture there was a conversation with Ortiz (or his agent) that led to this supposition. There is precedent to unofficial handshake deals whereby a player will agree to refuse an arbitration offer and continue his negotiations. For a Type B free agent like Ortiz, this is done to allow the Nationals to protect their rights to draft pick compensation while at the same time not altering the market for Ortiz with other teams.

Another concern of this conservative strategy is that it leaves the Nationals in the future position of having to develop a farm system with only one selection per round in 2008 and out. At present, the Nationals have no one who will be a Type A or B free agent after the 2007 season and only Jose Vidro and Cristian Guzman have the potential of returning compensation as free agents after 2008. Update: Additionally, Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns will be free agents after 2008. It would not be out of the question to think of them as Type A free agents, but one would expect the Nationals view Kearns and Lopez as part of the rebuilding effort in Washington. I’ve updated the table below with their compensation as projected Type Bs (erring on the conservative side)

Draft	Estimated # picks Top 100
2007	6
2008	3
2009	7 (assuming four Type Bs)

This is not necessarily conducive to a near term rebuilding effort as the most promising of prospects are typically selected early on in the draft. By signing middle of the road Type B free agents to one or two year deals, the Nationals provide themselves with a few opportunities. First, they can trade these players during the season for prospects, or, at worst, get the opportunity to stockpile draft picks with rebuilding in mind.

This is not a novel concept. Teams like Oakland and Boston have stockpiled draft picks recently and used this leverage to help restock depleted farm systems. In the Nationals’s favor, the man in charge of overseeing the scouting, Mike Rizzo, did an admirable job in the past for the Diamondbacks, armed with most often with no more than his own picks.

While there is certainly value in the plan underway, the Nationals may need to reconsider not jumping into the free agent market if for no other reason than to allow them to accelerate their development plans.

The MLB Rule 5 draft will take place on Thursday December 7. Presently the Nationals have two open spots on their 40-man roster, so they can participate in the draft if they choose.

In the days leading up to the draft, I’m going to profile a few of the more interesting names the Nationals may consider.

Jamie D’Antona is a 2003 second round selection from the Arizona Diamondbacks. After his drafting, he (277/356/517) joined fellow Arizona prospects Conor Jackson (319/410/533) and Carlos Quentin (310/428/562) as the “Three Amigos” who dominated the California League in 2004. While Jackson (140 games) and Quentin (57) have made the major leagues, D’Antona has struggled to make it above AA.

Year	Team	Age	Level	Pos	G	AB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
2003	Yakima	21	A-	3b	70	271	35	60	0.277	0.356	0.517
2004	Lancaster	22	A+	3b	68	273	16	36	0.315	0.353	0.531
	El Paso	22	AA	3b	19	71	2	16	0.211	0.230	0.282
2005	Tennessee	23	AA	3b-1b	125	410	44	67	0.249	0.322	0.385
2006	Tennessee	24	AA	3b	126	461	54	88	0.310	0.382	0.484

Why would the Nationals be interested in D’Antona?

First, the 24-year old D’Antona has played both 3B and 1B and would provide a welcome presence off of the bench as a power bat (he still has plus power) for the Nationals. He would allow Manny Acta to rest Ryan Zimmerman who played 157 games at 3B in 2006 as well as provide a RH complement to 1B Nick Johnson. His strong arm would allow him to be a serviceable defensive replacement. Additionally, D’Antona began to play some games at catcher in 2006 and continued that in the Arizona Fall League. He could provide a backup to Brian Schneider as a RH platoon bat if they believe Brandon Harper is not the best choice. In 2006, D’Antona batted 367/450/592 in 196 AB versus LHP with 30 strikeouts and 31 walks.

Another reason? The man who was responsible for drafting D’Antona in Arizona is currently the Assistant GM and Vice President of Baseball Operations for the Nationals, Mike Rizzo. Rizzo should be aware of D’Antona’s abilities better than almost anyone else and if the past is any indicator, he is not shy in recommending former Diamondbacks for acquisition by the Nationals (LHP Matt Chico, RHP Garrett Mock, and CA Juan Brito).

D’Antona could provide a flexibility off of the bench and is still young enough to fit into the Nationals development plans.

The MLB arbitration deadline has come and passed and the compensation picture for Alfonso Soriano is much much clearer.

Of the five players remaining ahead of Soriano in the compensation lsiting, only Barry Zito remains unsigned and was offered arbitration. Andy Pettitte, JD Drew, and Bengie Molina were not offered arbitration and Ray Durham resigned with the San Francisco Giants. What this means is the Nationals only need to wait for Zito to sign anywhere but with the Cubs to be assured of Chicago’s 2nd round selection.

Other items of interest:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates did not offer arbitration to Jeromy Burnitz.
• The Orioles did not offer arbitration to Latroy Hawkins who has been rumored to have agreed to a deal with the Colorado Rockies. Given that along with Baltimore’s re-signing of Kevin Millar means the Nationals will pick at #32 in the supplemental first round.
• There are 23 remaining free agents that would require some sort of compensation. Since both Type A and B free agents both return a supplemental pick, this has an impact on the Nationals compensationpick from the Cubs. If all 23 were to sign with other teams (not very likely), the Nationals selection from Chicago would drop to #74 overall.
• Type A (9): Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, Jeff Suppan, Rich Aurilia, Todd Walker, Roberto Hernandez, Julio Lugo, Tony Graffanino, and Dave Roberts
• Type B (14): Mark Mulder, Ted Lilly, David Wells, Ron Villone, Gil Meche, Vicente Padilla, Chan Ho Park, Jose Guillen, Scott Schoeneweis, Miguel Batista, Keith Foulke, Alan Embree, Ryan Klesko, and Guillermo Mota
• As seen above, only Jose Guillen was offered arbitration by the Nationals. Which means if he signs elsewhere, the Nationals would receive a supplemental first round selection. I believe this means it’s much more likely Guillen will be returning to Washington in 2007. It was surprising to see the Nationals did not offer arbitration to Ramon Ortiz, but it does not necessarily mean he is not returning to the Nationals in 2007. It means the Nationals will not have to concern themselves with Ortiz in the arbitration process, though it also means no compensation if he were to sign elsewhere.