Nationals Farm Authority

We did some updating at NFA and it dropped the Alfonso Soriano and Jose Guillen compensation trackers off of the righthand side of the page. Here is the latest. (UPDATE: Reports have Scott Schoeneweis signing with the Mets. I’ve updated the information below)

Alfonso Soriano, Type A Free Agent

• Supplemental First Round: #32. This is set in stone and will not change.
• Chicago Cubs Second Round: #67. It is locked in the second round but the pick number can still change.
• Free agent starting pitcher Mark Mulder re-signed with the St Louis Cardinals yesterday, eliminating one more compensationable free agent from the pool. As of January 11, there are only three remaining free agents who will require compensation (final 2006 team in parentheses)
• David Wells (SD)
• Ron Villone (NYY)
• Chan Ho Park (SD)
• If the above three sign with any team other than their final 2006 team, a selection will be added to the supplemental first round thereby dropping the Soriano second round compensation down one pick for each such signing. Or more clearly, Soriano’s second round compensation will be somewhere between #67 and #70
• There is a draft pick at the end of the Supplemental First Round set aside for the Diamondbacks who have yet to sign 2006 First Rounder Max Sherzer. All reports hint they will agree eventually, but the pick remains as of today.

Jose Guillen, Type B Free Agent

• Supplemental First Round: #49. There is only one free agent left who if they signed with anyone other than their original team would return compensation. Relief pitcher Ron Villone is still unsigned. If he signs with anyone other than the New York Yankees, the compensation for Guillen becomes #50. 

In summary, as of January 11, the Nationals have the following selections in the 2007 First Year Player Draft (worst case scenario):

• First Round: #6
• Supplemental First Round: #32 & #49 (50)
• Second Round: #67 (70) & #70 (73)
• Third through Fiftieth Round (keep adding 30 for each additional round): #100 (103), #130 (133), & … 1,510 (1,513)

Included in Mark Zuckerman’s story today about the Nationals signing of four players from the Dominican Republic was this line

Scouting director Dana Brown and assistant GM Mike Rizzo will travel to Venezuela tomorrow to scout five more young players

Whether or not they actually sign anyone to contract, it is good news to hear they are making the necessary effort to put the Lerners and Stan Kasten’s goal of making the Nationals an international presence into action.

After conducting an invitation-only tryout last month at their academy in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, the Washington Nationals today agreed to terms on professional contracts with left-handed pitcher Randy Almonte, right-handed pitcher Marcos Frias, catcher Ricardo Martinez and left-handed pitcher Francisco Vizcaino. Nationals Director of Scouting Dana Brown made the announcement.

All four are Dominican natives that participated in the December workout. Brown, Nationals Manager Manny Acta and Nationals Special Assistant to the GM Jose Rijo conducted the workout, which included 50 players in all.

“These signings are the most recent step in our commitment to scouting and signing young prospects throughout Latin America,” said Brown. “We are excited to add three pitchers, including 6-foot-6 lefthander Randy Almonte, who projects to have tremendous upside.”

Almonte was one of the players highlighted by Todd Jacobson back in December.

This offseason, the Potomac Nationals hired a new Director of Broadcasting and Media Relations to replace the departing Dan Laing. Selected for the job was 23-year old Texas native, Anthony Oppermann. Anthony was kind enough to answer a few questions about himself and what he does.

Nationals Farm Authority (NFA): Tell me something about your background. How did you get your start in broadcasting? What exactly drew you to the booth?  

Anthony Oppermann (AO): I got my start in broadcasting while I was in college at Texas Christian University. I helped produce the TCU Horned Frog baseball games and hosted the pre and post-game shows. I had always done speaking events while in grade school, and really wanted to do something different, something no else that I knew had ever done. That combined with a true love for the game of baseball drew me to the booth. I love to create, and to use my words and voice to make listeners “see the game” and feel the emotions associated with that is truly an art form.

NFA: You did some play-by-play work in the Texas Collegiate League, did you have the opportunity to see any players that are now making a name for themselves in the major or minor leagues? Is there anyone in the Nationals minor league organization that you covered?

AO: More than 20 of the players I covered in the TCL in 2005 were drafted in this past summer’s free agent draft. Because the majority of them were college freshman and sophomores at the time, none have made it the Majors yet. The only player from the TCL who was picked up by the Nationals was Jeremy Goldschmeding who was a shortstop out of Dallas Baptist that played for the Mineral Wells Steam in ‘05.

NFA: In addition to your role broadcasting the Potomac Nationals, what other responsibilities do you have in your Media Relations role?

AO: A lot of my media relations duties include working and building relationships with the local media in the D.C. area. I’m in charge of writing press releases and game stories for our website and the afore mentioned media outlets. Speaking of the website, we are on the verge of launching a new site at the end of January, so a large part of what I’ll be doing over the next several weeks will be putting together the pages and content for that site. During the season I’ll be responsible for setting the schedule for our press box staff (official scorer, PA announcer, etc.) and putting together game notes, stat packs, and rosters.

NFA: Describe a typical day for you during the season? What goes into preparing yourself for a game?

AO: To be fully prepared for a three hour game, most broadcasters suggest spending close to nine hours prepping and researching. Obviously in the minor leagues and especially the low minors, a broadcaster has so many other responsibilities that this becomes impossible to do. The way to get around that is to put time in to quality game notes and know them from cover to cover. I’m also in charge of getting stat packs to both teams and making sure everyone in the press box has all of the information they need. I like to spend at least a few minutes before each game talking with players and coaches around the cage during batting practice. As soon as I get the line-ups for both teams, I’ll distribute them and then fill out my scorebook. The sooner I get my book filled out, the more time I have to organize my notes and make a smooth transition into the broadcast.

NFA: What are you most looking forward to in 2007?

AO: I’m really looking forward to being in the Carolina League and getting the opportunity to work with all of the people within it. The Assistant General Manager in Daytona and one of my mentors, Matt Provence, was the broadcaster in Lynchburg for several years and spoke very highly of the league and its member teams. The thing I’m really excited about though is the opportunity to make something special happen in Woodbridge. The front office staff is very dedicated and there is so much potential to make the Potomac Nationals one of best organizations in all of Minor League baseball. It’s not going to happen in one year, but 2007 will be the start!

NFA: What are your long term goals? Do you want to remain in the broadcasting role or do you have interest in other aspects of baseball operations? Are the major leagues something you are interested in?

AO: Broadcasting is my passion. It is what gets me excited. I could go on for hours talking about it and analyzing it. Again, it’s the ability to create and use the spoken word to make people think and feel. I think it’s a lost art in our society, and to get the opportunity to do it is truly a privilege. With that said, I don’t consider myself an artist yet and that is my long term goal, to be an artist. Right now I’m still learning the craft and my short term goals are to improve and keep getting better. In the meantime, I like being able to contribute to other aspects of baseball operations and earn my keep so to speak. My dream is to one day be a Major League announcer because to me that is the pinnacle of this profession. Obviously there are many great broadcasters who have never gotten the chance to reach that level, so to some extent, it’s out of my control. The only thing I can do is continue to work hard and strive to get better everyday and hopefully that will translate in to a Major League career.

Libery University pitching coach Randy Tomlin has been named the pitching coach for the 2007 Potomac Nationals. Tomlin pitched for the Pittsburgh Pirates for five years (1990-94).

In continuing with the tradition, Ben Folsom of Curly W and Curly R agreed to answer five questions for me in exchange for five answers (plus a bonus one) to him.

Nationals Farm Authority (NFA): Since you’ve been spending much of your recent time wrapping up the Redskins season over at Curly R, what positive lessons learned can the Nationals take from how the Redskins do business? And conversely, which negative things should the Nationals not do that the Redskins have done?

Ben Folsom (BF): The thing about the Redskins right now is that they are not doing anything right.  The front office is making horrible player selection choices, they are waaaay over budget and the team on the field underperformed, dismally, as in they won less than a third of their games.  If I had to set up a takeaway for the Nationals on how not to repeat this mess, I’d have to say

Lesson One:  The Nationals would be well-served if the Lerners left the baseball decisions to the baseball people.  The owners should set the budget and the tone they want to convey with the team and leave everything else to the baseball minds.  Don’t pretend you know a lot about baseball when you don’t and don’t assume that it’s not rocket science.

Lesson Two:  Someone has to be in charge.  The Redskins had too many cooks this year, with the owner, the fake-GM, the head coach, the top coordinators and even position coaches involved in player evaluation and selection.  As a result, there was a lot of groupthink and a lot of head-nodding, and it led to bad decisions.  No one was ultimately accountable and therefore there was no one stepping up and asking why these new player additions were available so easily from their old teams.  Even now, from the owner on down, everyone in the Redskins food chain is pointing at someone else saying, well I did my part right, and it ultimately wasn’t my decision anyway.

What did the Redskins do well that unfortunately cannot be replicated by the Nationals?  Build and own their own stadium.  The team plus the stadium are together worth over a billion dollars and Dan Snyder gets to call all the shots and keep every cent.  As a result of their deal with the devil, er, DC Council, the Nationals will always and forever have a landlord, be tossed around like a political football and find the city right there in the team’s shadow, always trying to bleed revenue from the team into the city coffers.

NFA: There is absolutley no question that Washington DC is first a Redskins town. What can the Nationals do to force their way onto the stage with the Skins?

BF: Two things, one easy, one hard.

The easy thing:  find a core of players that come to symbolize the team as the team comes to symbolize the city.  Seeing those reassuring faces in the paper and on TV generates a bond with the city.  New York, maybe they are jaded with all these high-priced hired guns on the Yankees, or maybe George Steinbrenner has decided he’s going to be Donald Trump and pay the best for the best and Yankees fans if you don’t like it, You’re Fired, and that’s the tone he wants to convey.

The old joke of baseball is that since free agency took the game over, you need a scorecard just to know who’s wearing the laundry you’re rooting for.  These are cynical times for baseball, what with the Washington Post pining for Cal Ripken in the face of the disgraced Mark McGwire and 43 year old pitchers like Randy Johnson sign deals worth $13 million a year.  It is a tough time for a team to be born and to acquire an identity.  So when a team is fortunate enough to land a guy like a Ryan Zimmerman, it should try and keep him as long as feasible.  Guys like Nick Johnson and Chad Cordero, there may be better players out there at their positions, but if you hang onto them and worry about upgrading around them, fans will be happy as long as those guys carry their portion of the load.  There is no greater story than a championship team built around guys that were there when times were tough.

The hard thing:  Be here for 70 years and win a few championships, and be vulnerable as an entity.  The Redskins moved to Washington in 1937 and since then have appeared in ten championship games.  Until recently (ie, Dan Snyder), the team was a soap opera with a racist first owner, an all-business win-first second owner, a freakshow third owner and now Dan Snyder.  There was always the impression that the Redskins were themselves an individual entity in Washington with their own problems and not merely a for-profit enterprise and as such fans never felt ‘below’ the team.  Nowadays Redskins fans are treated to an owner that bribes the Interior Department for a better view from his palace and makes time with Tom Cruise.  Redskins fans feel below Dan Snyder and as such the only thing tying Redskins fans of today to the team is stories about yesterday.

NFA: What do you want to see/not want to see in the new ballpark? Using the Redskins as your basis of comparison?

BF: I don’t want to see myself going to a game with a hundred dollars and it still not being enough.  I want to see a dignified game with no top 40 DJs calling the game and playing loud hip-hop or pop fluff between innings.  I understand there is a need to sell advertising and all that, but don’t put advertising on every available inch of real estate because that pisses me off and makes me not want to patronize those advertisers and don’t soak me for every last cent like you’re worried I may never come back.  If my kid is having fun at the game, don’t make me pay 40 dollars for a t-shirt.  I understand 7 dollars is the rate for a beer these days, but abolish that magazine and bring back the 2 dollar program with the golf pencil so I can teach my kid how to score a game (sadly a nearly lost art).  And sorry, 5 dollars is too goddam much for lemonade.  Throw in the cotton candy and I’ll call it square.

I want to see a stadium that feels like it came from the sport, not from a lobbyist’s wet dream.  I want to see families and regular folks in the stands and I don’t want to have to shush the corporate assholes that got their tickets for free and aren’t paying attention.  If there are VIP suites or reception areas, make the VIP go to them, not us peons go around the VIPs.  So much of Washington is conspicuous privilege and if the team appears to want to cater to the powerful at the literal expense of the rank and file that buy outfield tickets, the Nationals will find themselves in a downward attendance spiral like Florida or Cleveland.

Finally, I want to see a stadium that welcomes everyone in Washington, from ritzy Chevy Chase to southeast across the Anacostia River.

NFA: Given all of the online thrashing online about “The Plan,” where do you come down on it? Pro? Anti? Wait & see? Why?

BF: I give the team credit for being as open as they can about the fact that 2007 will be a lean year.  No it never makes good business sense to come out and say, we’re going to suck and you’ll hate us, but MLB left the Expos in shambles and the team had to suck it up eventually and confront that fact.  Sure I want to see the Nationals win, but this is effectively an expansion team right now and as a baseball fan I will be as interested in watching the team make the moves necessary to improve the team as I will be to watch our boys play.

In admitting 2007 is going to be tough, they allow us hope that this bunch of misfits can beat the odds and be good, and we can stick to those asshole Phillies fans.  And by looking ahead to 2008 they have written a check to me and all the other fans in the market for season tickets that 2008’s record better cash.  Don’t say 2007’s focus is 2008 and then let 2008 come around and you still suck.  We’re not talking a ten-game improvement either.

Besides, baseball is about the games, and the games will be happening, right?  So let’s go to RFK for some Nationals games and root on The Guys With No Chance.

NFA: Since my focus is the minor leagues, why do you think MLB has not found a way to better publicize/present their draft in a manner similar to that of the NFL, NBA, or even the NHL? Is it something that could be watchable given the right conditions?

BF: Going backwards, yes, eventually we’ll see the baseball draft on TV as a packaged event in some form.  It may never match the NFL draft for intensity and coverage, but with the proliferation of media outlets, it is bound to happen (with the NFL Network now in place, we’ll get to see the freaking pre-draft combine in Indianapolis — hours of athletic dudes running sprints with Olympics-style commentary on the side).

The thing about the MLB draft is that it doesn’t always line up directly with the major league team’s next season  In the NFL and NBA, you can pretty reliably expect the top picks will get a lot of playing time, even maybe displace starters, but in baseball there are so many rounds, compensation picks, college, non-college, high school players and it’s easy to lose the plot.  In the NFL and NBA the majority of these guys come from a single source, college, and there is generally even coverage of them, so you’ve seen them on TV at some point and it’s easy to compile a highlight reel of the player’s pre-pro performance.  Even with so many NBA players coming directly from high school, there are never more than a few and they are on the radar and have satellite trucks outside when they play big games.  Baseball is not a TV sport at any level below the majors and as such there is no media link between where they came from and where they are headed.

This is one reason I love Nationals Farm Authority — the minor league teams toil in national anonymity in comparison to the major league clubs and were it not for someone willing to put it all together, I’d have basically no idea where the talent to stock the team comes from.

— 

Thank you to Ben for taking the time to ask me questions as well as answer a few of my own.

This week in Leesburg, VA, MLB and the Player’s Association are holding their annual Rookie Career Development Program.

The Players Association and Major League Baseball each January bring together several of the clubs’ top prospects to take part in the Rookie Career Development Program, a private, four-day gathering in which the players get to know each other and learn about life in the big leagues.

There typically are about 90 rookies invited to a seminar designed to “include sessions on working with the media, financial planning, financial responsibility, alcohol, tobacco and drugs and umpires. There’s also an extended program for Latino players, which introduces additional issues such as immigration law and adapting to a new culture.”

Attending this year’s seminar from the Nationals are Kory Casto, Matt Chico, and Beltran Perez (Jason Bergmann, Brandon Watson, and Ryan Zimmerman were 2006 attendees, and Michael Hinckley was among the 2005 attendees). Selection to attend this program is a sign the organization sees the player in the majors in the near term.

Todd Jacobson of the Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star provided coverage of last year’s program.

“It really gives guys an understanding of what to expect as a major-league athlete and as a professional athlete,” Nationals farm director Andy Dunn said.

With all of the lists slowly coming out, I took the time to re-evaluate my Top 30 list from October 17. Since then, the Nationals have had players excel/struggle in the Arizona Fall and Hawaii Winter Leagues. Not to mention, the acquisition of several players from trades and the Rule 5 draft in December. I’ve added a page on the righthand side that tracks some of the Top 10/20/30 lists of Nationals prospects.

Given the chance to look back, here is my new top 30 list (with the 10/17 one provided for comparison):

The two additions to the list both jumped towards the top of the list. CA Jesus Flores immediately becomes the top catching prospect in the minor leagues. Given that he is required to spend the entire season on the 25-man roster, his development from playing time is certainly going to be stunted, but he’s a talent the Nationals would be wise to retain.

Joining Flores on the list is RHP Emiliano Fruto who was acquired from the Seattle Mariners for Jose Vidro. Fruto should compete for a spot in the 2007 bullpen, but I still believe with four average to above average pitches, he could be consideration for the starting rotation. I was torn on whether to add OF Chris Snelling who has only played 59 major league games, but given his over two years of service time [DL stints count] I considered him beyond the scope of this list.

Dropping off of the list were OF Ryan Delaughter and RHP Luis Atilano. Delaughter is still really raw as a hitter, while Atilano is likely to miss most of the 2007 season after 2007 Tommy John surgery.

I also did a bit a shuffling of the middle of the list. The biggest jump was Esmailyn Gonzalez. After some time to ruminate, I believe I underrated Gonzalez. From folks I have spoken with, it appears that while the comparisons to Miguel Tejada may be a bit premature, Gonzalez is well-regarded enough by baseball scouts to move him from #19 to the top 10 list.

The overall point of most if not all of the rankings thus far is that the Nationals prior to 2006 were not very strong in the minors. There is still going to be quite a bit of volatility in this list over the next season or two as some high ceiling guys flame out, former top prospects rebound, and new additions are made to the farm system. With a full staff of scouts and more importantly the access to the money necessary to bring in top level talent, the Nationals have begun to lay a foundation which hopefully will lead to future success … what the Nationals have accomplished in roughly 6 months is impressive. But bigger steps are necessary.

Hat tip to the gentleman from the Banks of the Anacostia for pointing out Baseball Prospectus Nationals Top 10 prospects.

Excellent Prospects:

None

Very Good Prospects:

1 Chris Marrero, lf

Good Prospects:

2 Collin Balester, rhp

3 Kory Casto, lf

4 Jesus Flores, c

Average Prospects:

5 Colton Willems, rhp

6 Shairon Martis, rhp

7 Esmailyn Gonzalez, ss

8 Zech Zinicola, rhp

9 Matt Chico, rhp

10 Stephen King, ss

It’s roughly the same top 10 most sources are coming up with. I’ll put a link up on the leftside with all the various Nationals Top 10/20/30s.

Aaron Fitt covers both college baseball and prospects for Baseball America. On January 12, Aaron will be releasing his Nationals Top 10 list. This marks the third season that Aaron has reviewed/ranked the Nationals minor league performance as a precursor to Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook where you can find each team’s Top 30 list along with a recap of the 2006 draft for each team. He graciously agreed to answer some questions for me via email.

Nationals Farm Authority (NFA): What impact will the hiring of Mike Rizzo have on the Nationals rebuilding effort? Manny Acta?

Aaron Fitt (AF): When Rizzo was hired, it was unclear exactly how he and scouting director Dana Brown would interact, and who would have what responsibilities. Now it appears clear that Dana will still have plenty of autonomy, but Rizzo was brought in just to get another accomplished baseball mind in the organization. Rizzo has a terrific track record in Arizona, of course, and will have a bigger hand in player procurement and development in 2007, but not at Dana’s expense. Like Rizzo, Acta seems like a nice hire. By all accounts he did a good job handling the various egos on the Dominican team in the World Baseball Classic, and he doesn’t seem like the kind of manager who will bury young players. Definitely much more in line with the kind of long-term, build-from-within approach the Nationals seek than Frank Robinson.

NFA: What is your opinion of the direction taken by the Nationals new ownership (i.e. 2006 draft and in-season trades)?

AF: I’ve been impressed with the foresight shown by Lerner, who is no spring chicken. Too often in sports we see aging owners mortgage the future for a chance to win now, and that approach often leads to bad contracts for established veterans on the downside of their careers. Those types of contracts would be the worst possible thing for Washington to fall into, and you have to give Bowden and his staff plenty of credit for shipping off their older players and stockpiling whatever youth they can. It’s easy to blast him for holding onto Soriano and then losing him to free agency, but he insisted to me that there was not an offer on the table that was better than the pair of first-round picks Soriano will yield in free-agent compensation. So that might end up being the best long-term move for a franchise in long-term rebuilding mode. After all, the two first-rounders the Nats took in 2006 are two of their top three prospects (according to BA’s rankings).

NFA: What is the impact of the Nationals not signing 2006 second round draft pick Sean Black? Were the Nationals correct in apparently holding strong to the slotting bonus?

AF: There is no doubt they wanted to sign Black, but the sides just weren’t very close. Frankly, I was surprised the player stuck to his exorbitant bonus demands, because he was a fringe second-round talent who had just popped up on most draft radars in his senior season. I expected he would realize that his value had peaked and it would be wise to sign, even if he had to take slot money. I don’t blame the Nationals for not meeting his demands — he’s a very nice talent, with a tall, projectable frame and quality stuff, but he’s very raw — hardly a sure bet.

NFA: Should the Nationals continue their focus on high ceiling high school players in the 2007 draft?

AF: Yes, if for no other reason than because the strength of the 2007 draft will be high school players. The college crop is quite weak — once you get past Vandy’s David Price and a group of stellar closers, there’s little to get excited about. On the other hand, there will be some prep players who have a chance to become serious impact prospects. Washington’s in no hurry — they ought to target high-ceiling guys, even if they are far away.

NFA: How would you grade out the Nationals recent drafts?

AF: I really like their 2006 draft, even though Black got away. Marrero, Willems, Englund, King and Gibson are exactly the kind of players they should go after — guys with a chance to make a major impact down the road. Gibson was probably my favorite prospect in the whole draft — wonderful sleeper from Long Island who got overlooked largely because he dominated against inferior high school competition. He has projection, feel for pitching, command and a pair of very good secondary pitches — the whole package, and he’s a lefty. I’m not sold on Van Allen, but his talent is undeniable, so it’s not a bad low-risk, high-reward pick. Zinicola is a fast-track guy, and you saw what he did in his debut. The Nationals love Hassan Pena and Adam Carr, and any time you can get a legit prospect after round 10, you’re doing OK. I give the draft an A-. The 2005 draft is probably a B+ — big points for landing Zimmerman, of course, but Justin Maxwell and Ryan Delaughter had disappointing seasons in 2006, and there aren’t a lot of impact guys past that. Estrada, Stammen and Lannan are all prospects, but none has a ceiling much higher than No. 4 starter. The Nationals love Mike Daniel internally, but I’m skeptical. 2004 is probably a B… Balester in the fourth round carries it, Bray worked out fine, but San Pedro was a bust in the second round. The jury is still out on Ian Desmond — the subject of much debate here in the BA office, with the general consensus that he’s a longshot. Ivany and Peacock are their two best catching prospects, but Marvin Lowrance and Leonard Davis have not lived up to their talent.

NFA: What are some of the Nationals organizational strengths? Weaknesses?

AF: All of a sudden, Washington has pitching depth, thanks largely to the 2006 trades for Mock, Chico, Nunez, Martis, Atilano, etc. The draft also helped, so the regression of Hinckley and Everts is masked. As for position players, the Nationals have concentrated on building depth at shortstop, with the idea that those players will have more value in trade if they can stick at short, or they can be moved to another position where their athleticism will come in handy. That’s not a bad strategy, but as a result the system is weak at the other infield positions. It also could use more power hitters, though Marrero was a good start. The biggest weakness of the system is a lack of impact talent at the upper levels of the minors. Most of the top prospects haven’t even played professionally long enough to know if they’re truly top prospects.

NFA: With the hiring of a new slate of scouts, the Nationals presently have 23 scouts on staff? How do the Nationals stack up against other MLB teams?

AF: The dark days are over for Dana Brown and his staff — the recent hires put the Nationals about on par with the rest of baseball.

NFA: Stan Kasten has said he wants to establish an international presence for the Nationals, how have the first steps progressed (signing of Esmailyn Gonzalez, setting a scout up in Asia)? How long a process is this typically?

AF: The Nationals overpaid for Gonzalez, outbidding everyone by as much as a half-million dollars, but he is a very nice prospect nonetheless. You’re starting to see fruits of Washington’s new Dominican complex and the efforts of Jose Rijo, though it takes some time. Signing Gonzalez was intended largely as a statement to Latin American players and agents that the Nationals are serious players in that market. Now the process of establishing a presence there should accelerate.

NFA: Which Nationals prospect was the biggest surprise in 2006? Biggest disappointment?

AF: Biggest surprise was probably Adam Carr, who had barely pitched in college but showed great stuff while dominating low Class A in his pro debut. I’d also throw Brett Campbell’s name into the mix — his stuff is fringy, but he keeps climbing the ladder. There are far too many candidates for biggest disappointment for Washington’s liking, and you could make a case for Clint Everts, Mike Hinckley, Ian Desmond, Leonard Davis, Francisco Guzman, Tyrell Godwin, Justin Maxwell, or a number of others. I’d probably go with Everts — I really thought he’d bounce back stronger than he did. Next year’s really make or break for him.

NFA: Who is the most over hyped Nationals prospect? Most underrated?

AF: Most over-hyped is probably Desmond, and I probably bear some of the responsibility for that. I ran him up my 2006 top prospects list to No. 4 on the basis of his talent and makeup, but he’s never actually produced results. Time to take a step back on him. For underrated, I might go with Larry Broadway, just because he put up a solid season and has decent power and defensive skills at first base, yet he doesn’t appear to be in Washington’s plans at the big league level. He might get a chance this year if Nick Johnson’s recovery goes slowly, but I’ve also heard Washington’s name mentioned in rumors for veteran first-base free agents. Broadway’s no longer a great prospect, but you could do worse as a short-term solution.

NFA: Who is the one Nationals prospect to watch in 2007?

AF: I’ll stick with my earlier praise for Glenn Gibson and go with him. I’ve got a feeling this guy could end up as a major break-out arm in 2007.