Nationals Farm Authority

Well, tomorrow anyways. Brian and I will be heading down to Viera, FL to get a look at over 100 players in the Washington Nationals organization. Yes, there are over 70 guys in the big league camp, but we here at Nationals Farm Authority care just as much about all the minor league players in the system as well. From those already working out in the minor league accelerated development program to the rest of the entire farm system as they roll into town this weekend, we hope to bring you some first hand news and notes. Our goal is to talk to players and mainly minor leaguers, get some quick questions in with them about their pitches or their goals for the season and to see their skills in person. Wish us well!

Oregon State CA Mitch Canham

Canham was the co-captain of the World Series Champion Beavers. A draft eligible sophomore (that means he turned 21 prior to the draft), Canham was selected by the St Louis Cardinals in the 41st round of the 2006 draft. An athletic lefthanded hitter, Canham’s bat is clearly ahead of his glove. Like Donaldson, Canham is in the next tier of catchers available in a strong college draft behind the plate. Scouts project him in the middle of the supplemental first round through early second round.

Barry Svrluga stops by Nationals accelerated spring training with a focus on 2006 first round draft picks Chris Marrero and Colton Willems.

Auburn C/3B Josh Donaldson

Donaldson is among the next tier of strong college catchers in the 2007 draft. He is highly thought of defensively with good footwork, a quick release, and strong arm. Donaldson was ranked as the 11th best prospect in the Cape Cod League by Baseball America. Donaldson is likely a second or third round selection.

Lewis-Clark State College 1B/3B Beau Mills

After two seasons at Fresno State, academic issues led Mills to Lewis-Clark College in Idaho for his junior season. He has a powerful lefthanded bat, hitting to all fields. He was last drafted in the 44th round of the 2004 draft by the Boston Red Sox and is a likely supplemental first round selection. His future is likely at 1B or a corner OF position.

UC Riverside RHSP James Simmons

Repertoire: high 80s fastball, average curveball, cutter, changeup Simmons is a control pitcher with a solid repertoire. Scouts believe he needs to add some velocity and an improved feel for pitching in order to improve his draftability. If he does he could jump from the supplemental first round to the middle of the first round.

Tennessee LHSP James Adkins

Repertoire: low-90s fastball, solid slider, curveball, changeup After a spectacular freshman year where he was used ahead of 2006 first overall selection Luke Hochevar, Adkins struggled with a sore shoulder in a solid enough sophomore season. He’s a back end of the first round selection with a projected ceiling as a back of the rotation starting pitcher.

Arkansas LHSP Nick Schmidt

Repertoire: low-90s fastball, solid slider, changeup

Schmidt is a durable lefthanded strikeout pitcher with solid command of three pitches. He is projected as a middle to late first round selection. Schmidt pitched for the USA National team, in 5 starts (29.33 IP) he allowed 18 hits, 7 runs (5 earned), 9 walks while striking out 33.

(Editor’s note: Frequent reader/commenter VladiHondo graciously submitted this analysis for publication. I thank him for taking the time to prepare this and share it with NFA) 

Rating the Prospects

by VladiHondo

This is based on John Sickels’ “The Baseball Prospect Book” for this year and last. You can order it here. The book has blurbs and stats for over 1000 prospects, which comes to 30-40 per team.

I prefer Sickels’ method of grading over straight scouting (Baseball America) and straight sabermetrics (Bill James). Each has good elements, so he combines both to come up with his ratings. Sickels says in the forward:

My approach is a blend of sabermetrics and traditional scouting. I think you have look at both the numbers and the scouting reports to get a good feel on a player, and seeing the player in person is always very helpful, even indispensable in many cases.

However, this past year, due to family, he wasn’t able to get out and watch prospects as much as he has in the past, so he relied a bit more on stats than first hand reports.

He gives each player a grade (A, A-, B+, B, etc.). To compare organizations, I used two simple methods, one quantity and one quantity. Using the standard 4.0 scale for grades, I added up the score for a Total by organization. I also took the Average for each org’s player graded. The chart below shows how our division is ranked in the Majors for each year.

2006

2007

The big question is “Have the Nats Improved?” and all we can judge from this “a wee bit”. Our Total climbed to 26th but that could just be we have 5 more players rated, which is a plus. So it’s all tough to quantify, just say yes we’re better, but not by much, and it’s a long road ahead.

If you concentrate on upper tier prospect (A’s and B’s) we went from 3 to 5. Zimmerman made a massive impact on the parent club, Bill Bray (plus 2 C+ rated prospects) was traded to get Kearns and Lopez, another positive impact, and Kory Casto is the only returnee, going from B- to B. Joining him are draftees Chris Marrero, Colten Willems and Zech Zinicola and the Stanton prize, Shairon Martis.

Last year Florida had all those rookies make an impact so its Farm System ranking drops this year. For our division, Florida has 10 guys rated in the B’s (no A’s), Braves have 10 B’s, Phillies have 7 B’s, Nats have 5 B’s, Mets have 8 B’s and the division’s only A- (Pelfrey).

2006 Nats Top Prospects (2005 draftees in bold italics)

• A = Zimmerman 3b
• B- = Bill Bray lhp, Kory Casto 3b-of
• C+ = Jason Bergmann rhp, Larry Broadway 1b, Frank Diaz of, Clint Everts rhp, Brendan Harris 2b-3b, Mike Hinckley lhp, Justin Maxwell of, Francisco Placencia of, Daryl Thompson rhp, Josh Whitesell 1b
• C = Tyrell Godwin, Edgardo Baez of, Collin Balester rhp, Rodgearvin Bernadina of, Dee Brown of, Brett Campbell rhp, Leonard Davis 3b, Ryan DeLaughter of, Ian Desmond ss (scouts love him, stats do not), Marco Estrada rhp, Tyrell Godwin, of Francisco Guzman of, John Howell of, Devan Ivany C, Salomon Manriquez C, Mike O’Conner lhp, Brandon Watson of

Of these guys, Bill Bray, Brendan Harris and Daryl Thompson traded to the Reds, Zimmerman we all know about(!), Brandon Watson was let go, Brett Campbell, Jason Bergmann & Mike O’Connor made it to the Majors, Salomon Manriquez was claimed by the Colorado Rockies in the Rule 5 minor league draft past December (and subsequently traded to the Texas Rangers).

2006 Nats Top Prospects (2006 draftees in bold italics, 2006 trade acquisitions have *)

• B+ = Chris Marrero OF
• B = Kory Casto OF, Shairon Martis* rhp, Colten Willems rhp, Zech Zinicola rhp
• C+ = Matt Chico* lhp, Emiliano Fruto* rhp, Glenn Gibson lhp, Shawn Hill rhp, Stephen King SS, Garrett Mock* rhp, Jhonny Nunez* rhp
• C = Collin Balester rhp, Rogearvin Bernadina OF, Larry Broadway 1B, Dee Brown OF, Brett Campbell rhp, Adam Carr rhp, Roy Corcoran rhp, Ian Desmond SS, Frank Diaz OF, Stephen Englund OF, Marco Estrada rhp, Clint Everts rhp, Jesus Flores* C, Devan Ivany C, John Lannan lhp, Justin Maxwell OF, Alexis Morales rhp, Yunior Novoa lhp, Francisco Placencia of, Jack Spradlin lhp, Cory Van Allen lhp, Josh Whitesell 1b

Nationals’ Ratings, Totals

Some Notes:

Collin Balester’s grade should be higher, I believe much higher. Sickels usually pays close attention to how a pitcher reacts to the jump from A League to AA. Balester was shaky at Potomac (A+) due to reportedly mechanical flaws (they tried to change his motion and it failed) but did very well in 3 AA starts. That should have alerted him his grade should be higher. Baseball America rates him as our top prospect but they graded that on “projectability” and tools.

Marco Estrada is a strikeout pitcher who had bad ERAs (5.08 in 2k5, and 5.59 for Savannah in 2k6). He did well starting last year down in the GCL (1.52) and for the Waikiki Beach Boys (honest!) in the Hawaiian Winter League (1.19). Will have to do well at Hagerstown/Potomac to remain a prospect.

Yunior Novoa did great in the Dominican Summer League (0.73, 67 Ks in 35 IP!!) and the GCL (1.74, 35 Ks in 31 IP) but like Estrada has age issues, as he is a bit old for his league, as he was 21, while the GCL had a lot of just drafted high schoolers. Needs to make an impact at the Hagerstown level this year.

Michael Walsh of the Potomac Nationals discusses the prevalence of Nats blogs. Included are thoughts from Todd Jacobson, MissChatter (AKA Cathy Taylor), and yours truly.