Nationals Farm Authority

Each year I purchase three prospect guides/handbooks for an outsider/experts opinion on the Nationals farm system. Each one looks at the minor leagues from a slightly different perspective.

Baseball America is the most well-known of the three. Their 2007 Prospect Handbook is compiled by the folks in Durham, NC. They rely on both their major/minor league connections thoroughout baseball as well as their own live observations. If you pushed me to put them into a sabermetrics versus traditional scouting camp, I’d be inclined to say they place more emphasis on the scouting than strict statistical analysis. On the surface, their review of the Nationals farm system is a bit disheartening, where they are ranked as the 30th organization in the Talent Rankings (a drop from #24 in 2006).

This should really come as no surprise considering the organization was under Major League Baseball ownership for four seasons. New ownership has committed publicly to revitalizing the franchise via scouting and player development.

Baseball America shows the Nationals have the initial pieces in place, but they now need to ensure the right personnel are in place to develop these players into viable major league prospects. Only time will tell if that is the case. The lay out their analysis by team so it is easier to do one stop reviews of the Nationals organization. Additionally, Aaron Fitt provides an organization review that includes 2006 performance, organizational leaders, best tools, a projected 2010 lineup, last years top 20 prospects, top prospects of the decade, top draft picks of the decade, and largest bonuses in club history. There is a minor league depth chart as well as an analysis of the 2006 draft (with thumbnails of the 2003-05 draft, with respective budgets spent for the first 10 rounds). Each of the top 30 players receives a third of a page profile that discusses their background, strengths, weaknesses, and an initial forecast for 2007 placement. Many criticize Baseball America for their focus on projectability and how quickly they allow recent draft picks/international signings to ascend their rankings. I’ve purchased every edition of the Handbook because I value their consistency from year to year. Their connections within the industry allow them to get unbiased perspectives on players because they are not only receiving comments from the player’s own team, but also honest appraisals from the competition. If you are interested in a scout’s eye view of the organization, Baseball America is the best choice.

The second prospect related book I have is John Sickels’ The Baseball Prospect Book 2007. John uses both sabermetrics and traditional scouting methods, but he relies more upon the statistics to provide his perspective. Sickels expands the traditional five tools to seven skills for position players. They are:

1. Controlling the strikezone
2. Hitting for power
3. Hitting for average
4. Offensive speed
5. Fielding range
6. Fielding reliability
7. Throwing utility

For pitchers, John uses:

• Strikeout/walk ratio
• Strikeout/innings pitched ratio
• Hits/innings pitched ratio
• Home runs/innings pitched ratio

He then translates his analysis into a letter grade, from C to A.

Grade A prospects are the elite. 

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers

Grade C prospects are guys with the skills necessary but have some question marks

Unlike Baseball America, John has his players listed alphabetically, pitchers and hitters interspersed. He lists all of the Nationals prospects he reviewed in the back of the book along with their corresponding letter grade, but there is no index to quickly find a profile. I value John’s book for its numbers-based analysis, he quickly an easily explains to the reader what the numbers say about a particular prospect. Particulary how their ratio statistics compare. Be it from year to year or based upon the quality of the league, level of talent, ballparks where the stats where compiled. John’s reviews are much more conversational and his personality/sense of humor come across in many of the profiles. If you have a sabermetric affinity, John’s book is a clear choice.

The final book I received was the 2007 Minor League Baseball Analyst. Deric McKamey of Baseball HQ also states it’s a blend of sabermetrics and traditional scouting, but given his association with Baseball HQ, his analysis is geared more towards use by those playing fantasy baseball. The Analyst is split up into two parts, alphabetically by hitters and pitchers. He lists the appropriate statistics as well as anticipated MLB debut, projected roles, a ‘reliability/potential’ ranking, and a brief blurb on each player.

For the hitters, he ranks:

• Power
• Batting average
• Speed
• Defense

Whereas with pitchers he looks at their pitching repertoire. While this may initially turn off those who don’t play fantasy baseball, in my opinion, Deric offers the best balance of both scouting and sabermetrics. The only drawback I find is that there isn’t enough in-depth discussions of strengths/weaknesses. For someone interested in a quick big picture view of minor leaguers.

Each book is geared towards a slightly different audience and rather than point at one over another, I’ll leave it to the reader to make the selection based upon what they want to get out of their investment.