Nationals Farm Authority

(Editor’s note: Frequent reader/commenter VladiHondo graciously submitted this analysis for publication. I thank him for taking the time to prepare this and share it with NFA) 

Rating the Prospects

by VladiHondo

This is based on John Sickels’ “The Baseball Prospect Book” for this year and last. You can order it here. The book has blurbs and stats for over 1000 prospects, which comes to 30-40 per team.

I prefer Sickels’ method of grading over straight scouting (Baseball America) and straight sabermetrics (Bill James). Each has good elements, so he combines both to come up with his ratings. Sickels says in the forward:

My approach is a blend of sabermetrics and traditional scouting. I think you have look at both the numbers and the scouting reports to get a good feel on a player, and seeing the player in person is always very helpful, even indispensable in many cases.

However, this past year, due to family, he wasn’t able to get out and watch prospects as much as he has in the past, so he relied a bit more on stats than first hand reports.

He gives each player a grade (A, A-, B+, B, etc.). To compare organizations, I used two simple methods, one quantity and one quantity. Using the standard 4.0 scale for grades, I added up the score for a Total by organization. I also took the Average for each org’s player graded. The chart below shows how our division is ranked in the Majors for each year.

2006

Team	Prospects	Total	Avg
Atlanta	33	10th	8th
Florida	40	1st	3rd
NY Mets	29	30th	30th
Philly	30	28th	26th
DC	29	29th	29th

2007

Team	Prospects	Total	Avg
Atlanta	37	6th	12th
Florida	34	16th	7th
NY Mets	32	30th	15th
Philly	37	13th	30th
DC	34	26th	29th

The big question is “Have the Nats Improved?” and all we can judge from this “a wee bit”. Our Total climbed to 26th but that could just be we have 5 more players rated, which is a plus. So it’s all tough to quantify, just say yes we’re better, but not by much, and it’s a long road ahead.

If you concentrate on upper tier prospect (A’s and B’s) we went from 3 to 5. Zimmerman made a massive impact on the parent club, Bill Bray (plus 2 C+ rated prospects) was traded to get Kearns and Lopez, another positive impact, and Kory Casto is the only returnee, going from B- to B. Joining him are draftees Chris Marrero, Colten Willems and Zech Zinicola and the Stanton prize, Shairon Martis.

Last year Florida had all those rookies make an impact so its Farm System ranking drops this year. For our division, Florida has 10 guys rated in the B’s (no A’s), Braves have 10 B’s, Phillies have 7 B’s, Nats have 5 B’s, Mets have 8 B’s and the division’s only A- (Pelfrey).

2006 Nats Top Prospects (2005 draftees in bold italics)

• A = Zimmerman 3b
• B- = Bill Bray lhp, Kory Casto 3b-of
• C+ = Jason Bergmann rhp, Larry Broadway 1b, Frank Diaz of, Clint Everts rhp, Brendan Harris 2b-3b, Mike Hinckley lhp, Justin Maxwell of, Francisco Placencia of, Daryl Thompson rhp, Josh Whitesell 1b
• C = Tyrell Godwin, Edgardo Baez of, Collin Balester rhp, Rodgearvin Bernadina of, Dee Brown of, Brett Campbell rhp, Leonard Davis 3b, Ryan DeLaughter of, Ian Desmond ss (scouts love him, stats do not), Marco Estrada rhp, Tyrell Godwin, of Francisco Guzman of, John Howell of, Devan Ivany C, Salomon Manriquez C, Mike O’Conner lhp, Brandon Watson of

Of these guys, Bill Bray, Brendan Harris and Daryl Thompson traded to the Reds, Zimmerman we all know about(!), Brandon Watson was let go, Brett Campbell, Jason Bergmann & Mike O’Connor made it to the Majors, Salomon Manriquez was claimed by the Colorado Rockies in the Rule 5 minor league draft past December (and subsequently traded to the Texas Rangers).

2006 Nats Top Prospects (2006 draftees in bold italics, 2006 trade acquisitions have *)

• B+ = Chris Marrero OF
• B = Kory Casto OF, Shairon Martis* rhp, Colten Willems rhp, Zech Zinicola rhp
• C+ = Matt Chico* lhp, Emiliano Fruto* rhp, Glenn Gibson lhp, Shawn Hill rhp, Stephen King SS, Garrett Mock* rhp, Jhonny Nunez* rhp
• C = Collin Balester rhp, Rogearvin Bernadina OF, Larry Broadway 1B, Dee Brown OF, Brett Campbell rhp, Adam Carr rhp, Roy Corcoran rhp, Ian Desmond SS, Frank Diaz OF, Stephen Englund OF, Marco Estrada rhp, Clint Everts rhp, Jesus Flores* C, Devan Ivany C, John Lannan lhp, Justin Maxwell OF, Alexis Morales rhp, Yunior Novoa lhp, Francisco Placencia of, Jack Spradlin lhp, Cory Van Allen lhp, Josh Whitesell 1b

Nationals’ Ratings, Totals

team	a	a-	b+	b	b-	c+	c	c-	Nbr Rated	OrgTot	OrgAvg
2006	0	0	1	4	0	7	22	0	34	75	2.205882
2005	1	0	0	0	2	10	16	0	29	64	2.206897

Some Notes:

Collin Balester’s grade should be higher, I believe much higher. Sickels usually pays close attention to how a pitcher reacts to the jump from A League to AA. Balester was shaky at Potomac (A+) due to reportedly mechanical flaws (they tried to change his motion and it failed) but did very well in 3 AA starts. That should have alerted him his grade should be higher. Baseball America rates him as our top prospect but they graded that on “projectability” and tools.

Marco Estrada is a strikeout pitcher who had bad ERAs (5.08 in 2k5, and 5.59 for Savannah in 2k6). He did well starting last year down in the GCL (1.52) and for the Waikiki Beach Boys (honest!) in the Hawaiian Winter League (1.19). Will have to do well at Hagerstown/Potomac to remain a prospect.

Yunior Novoa did great in the Dominican Summer League (0.73, 67 Ks in 35 IP!!) and the GCL (1.74, 35 Ks in 31 IP) but like Estrada has age issues, as he is a bit old for his league, as he was 21, while the GCL had a lot of just drafted high schoolers. Needs to make an impact at the Hagerstown level this year.