{ 2007 05 23 }

NFA Mock Draft ver. 1.0

The Nationals scouting department is finalizing their watch list for the June 7-8 MLB First Year Player Draft. The Nationals have the following picks to make:

  • #6 (Nationals 1st round selection)
  • #31 (1st round supplemental for Alfonso Soriano)
  • #49 (1st round supplemental for Jose Guillen)
  • #68 (Cubs 2nd round selection for Alfonso Soriano)
  • #71 (Nationals 2nd round selection)
  • #101 (Nationals 3rd round selection)
  • add 30 for each subsequent round (131, 161, …)

Over the next couple of weeks, I am going to give my best guess on what the Nationals should do with those first six selections.

#6 - The last time the Nationals picked this high was back in 2005 and that worked out pretty well for them, ending up with Ryan Zimmerman at #4. The options in 2006 might not include a major league ready guy like Zimmerman, but that does not mean there is not a litany of interesting guys available. Early rumors from the experts have the Nationals going after college pitchers like Missouri State LHP Ross Detwiler or possible RHP Max Scherzer, who was drafted by current Nationals Asst GM Mike Rizzo last year when he was in charge of scouting for the Diamondbacks. Aside from Vanderbilt LHP David Price, the options at college pitcher seem pretty comparable from the #2 guy all the way down to the #10 guy. With that thought in mind, there are three guys who if they are there, I would select if I were the Nationals. The long shot is Rick Porcello, a New Jersey RHP who has a mid-90s fastball, solid mid-70s curve, low-80s slider, and a developing changeup. He also come from a part of the country that the Nationals frequently target, New Jersey. Director of Scouting Dana Brown is a Jersey guy and the Nationals have targeted guys like Jason Bergmann and Sean Black from the Garden State. But the chances of Porcello being there at #6 seem long at best. The next guy who is worth serious consideration is Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters who is considered by nearly all scouts as the best catching prospect since Joe Mauer. He has the rare combination of above average defense/play calling to go along with a bat that scout believe could generate 30 home runs. The story on Wieters is his representation, Scott Boras. Negotiations are going to be tough and it is almost a certainty that Wieters will command a major league contract to go along with a likely $5M+ bonus. The final option I would consider is a prep third baseman who has shot up on the draft charts this year, Mike Moustakas. Moustakas has a 97 mph fastball on the mound as a pitcher, but it’s his bat that will carry him through the minor leagues. Scouts are impressed with his light tower power and an easily repeatable swing. Much like Wieters, Moustakas is also represented by Boras. It will not take a major league contract to sign the 18-year old Moustakas, but it will likely take a hefty bonus to get him to forgo his scholarship at USC. All that being said, if I were the Nationals, I would select Matt Wieters. Yes, I know the Nationals spent a rule 5 pick on Jesus Flores, but I would not pass up a catcher who has the ceiling of Wieters. If the plan is to rebuild the farm system, nothing would prove the efforts were underway more than selecting arguably the best bat in the draft, deal with a tough negotiator in Boras, and add depth to an area in need of assistance.

#31 - At this point, it is honestly a guessing game what will happen. All teams don’t take simply the best player available. Many teams select based on need or signability. With that in mind (and assuming he is available), I would select LHP Brett Cecil from teh University of Maryland. He entered 2007 as the Terps closer but flashed enough of a third and fourth pitch that he was moved to the weekend rotation and is a consideration as a starting pitcher in professional baseball. He has a low 90s fastball, a high 80s slider, a serviceable curve & change.

#49 - The choice I’d make here is definitely a longshot, but there is enough disagreement among scouts that he could slide to the middle of the supplemental first round. My selection would be prep SS Justin Jackson. Jackson is already a solid defensive middle infielder and if he can fill out, he could develop into a 15HR/15SB type of player.

#68 - Local prep RHP Neil Ramirez would be my choice here. The Kempsville HS righty has a fastball that has been anywhere from the high 80s to the mid-90s and a good curve in the high 70s. He is a work in progress but there is certainly upside to him.

#71 - Cal State Fullerton RHP Wes Roemer. Roemer began the season as a possible mid-first round selection but a stumble out of the gate combined with the fact scouts are worried whether his high-80s fastball will translate could make him available here. He is all about control. Over the last two seasons, Roemer has struck our 260 hitters while walking only 25 in 258IP.

#101 - Prep catcher Danny Rams from Miami, FL. He has a huge power bat and an incredible arm behind the plate. His footwork needs work but he would certainly become one of the top catchers in the organization if he were selected.

I’ll try and do this at least two more times leading up to the draft.

Posted by Brian Oliver on Wednesday, May 23rd, 2007, at 9:01 am, and filed under Draft.

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