Nationals Farm Authority

With three games to go this season, the Nationals 2008 draft pick is locked in between #5 and #10.

The best the Nationals can finish is 75-87 and tied for #10 with Oakland, St. Louis, and Texas. And, since the Nationals had the worst 2006 winning percentage of the four would get the #10 on a tiebreaker. The worst the Nationals can finish is 72-90 and tied for the #5 pick with Florida. And, the tiebreaker goes to the Nationals there as well.

FYI … the Nationals hold the tiebreaker with every team in the table above.

It realistically seems the Nationals will finish with the #8, 9 or 10 pick in the 2008 draft.

From the Nationals

The Washington Nationals today named outfielder Justin Maxwell as its Minor League Player of the Year and lefthander John Lannan as its Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Nationals Vice President/General Manager Jim Bowden, Vice President/Player Development Bob Boone and Director/Player Development Bobby Williams made the announcement.

Maxwell, who grew up in Olney, MD and attended the University of Maryland, combined to hit .281 with 25 doubles, 27 home runs, 83 RBI and 35 stolen bases this season for Potomac of the Single-A Carolina League and Hagerstown of the Single-A South Atlantic League. He was the only player in minor league baseball in 2007 to record at least 25 doubles, 25 home runs and 25 steals. Maxwell led Nationals farmhands in homers, while ranking second in both RBI and steals.

The 23-year-old, who was Washington’s second selection (fourth round) in the 2005 First-Year Player Draft behind Ryan Zimmerman, had his contract selected by the Nationals from Potomac on September 4. He made his big league debut as a pinch hitter the next night vs. Florida, and flew out to the warning track in right-centerfield. Then on September 11 at Florida, he clubbed a pinch-hit grand slam off Chris Seddon for his first big league hit. He is batting .250 (5-for-20) with two homers and five RBI in 12 games (four starts) overall with Washington.

Maxwell hit .301 with 14 homers and 40 RBI in 56 games with Hagerstown before his June 11 promotion to Potomac. The 6-foot-5, 225-pounder went on to hit .263 with 13 homers and 43 RBI in 58 games with the P-Nats. He twice earned Topps Player of the Month honors during the year, winning the award in May, when he hit .320 (31-for-97) with seven home runs, 18 RBI and five steals in 25 Sally League games, and in August, when he batted .343 (35-for-102) with 10 homers, 28 RBI and 10 steals in 27 Carolina League contests.

Maxwell entered the 2007 season ranked as the Best Athlete and as the Fastest Baserunner among Washington prospects according to Baseball America’s annual “Best Tools” survey. He will play for the Peoria Javelinas of the Arizona Fall League after the season.

Lannan, who celebrates his 23rd birthday today, went a combined 12-3 with a 2.31 ERA in 21 games (19 starts) this season with Columbus of the Triple-A International League, Harrisburg of the Double-A Eastern League and Potomac of the Single-A Carolina League. He led Washington farmhands in ERA and ranked second in wins.

Washington’s 11th-round selection in the 2005 First-Year Player Draft had his contract selected by the Nationals from Columbus on July 26. The Siena (NY) College product made his major league debut that day, and went 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in six starts at the big league level. Lannan earned his first big league win August 1 vs. Cincinnati. He tossed seven innings of one-run ball on two occasions, August 6 at San Francisco (no-decision) and August 11 at Arizona (loss). Lannan held Barry Bonds hitless in three at-bats during that August 6 start, including a strikeout to end the seventh inning in a 1-1 ballgame.

Lannan was named to the Carolina League All-Star team after going 6-0 with a 2.13 ERA (12 ER/50.2 IP) in eight starts with Potomac, but he did not participate in the game against the California League All-Stars because of his May 21 promotion to Harrisburg. He went 3-2 with a 3.25 ERA (13 ER/36.0 IP) in six games (five starts) with Harrisburg. Lannan then went 3-1 record with a 1.66 ERA (7 ER/38.0 IP) in seven games (six starts) with Columbus after his June 20 promotion. Opposing left-handed hitters combined to hit only .152 (17-for-112) against him at the minor league level.

Both Jim Callis (general questions) and Aaron Fitt (New York/Penn League questions) were chatting online this afternoon. here are the Nationals’ related Q&As.

Q: How would you rank order the LHPs the Nationals have in their farm system (Glenn Gibson, Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker, and Jack McGeary)?

• Jim Callis: Detwiler, Smoker, McGeary, Gibson

Q: Jim, what do you think of recent call up Justin Maxwell of the Nats? I heard people say he’s a marginal prospect because of his age/level in the minors.

• Jim Callis: Age does matter, but you have to look at the context. Maxwell has had a series of injuries that held him back, so that’s why he spent most of the year in Class A at age 23. He has a lot of tools and would have been a possible first-round pick coming out of Maryland if not for injuries. He’s legit.

Q: Aaron, Do you see Zimmermann being fast tracked and skipping over Hagerstown since he’s a bit older than Gibson and Willems or a one level at a time advancement ? Thank you

• Aaron Fitt: The Nats seldom hesitate to push their college arms (see: Zinicola, Lannan, Stammen, Spradlin, even Adam Carr) and I suspect they’ll do the same with Zimmermann. He’s got a big arm and pretty good polish, and he should definitely move faster than Willems, though I expect Gibson to hop on the fast track next year also, because he’s very mature for a high school product.

Q: Aaron, the Nationals managed to get three of their arms in the top 20 with Zimmermann, Gibson, and Willems. How would you rate the two Vermonsters in the rotation who didn’t qualify (Josh Smoker & Jack McGeary)? Where would they rank?

• Aaron Fitt: It’s hard to stack them up against other players in the league since neither pitched more than four innings, but I like both of them and anticipate both will crack the Nationals’ top 10. For me, McGeary is very similar to Gibson in stuff, polish and profile, though he might have a bit more projection, since Gibson might never sit in the 90s even when he does fill out his frame. McGeary looked like a back-of-the-first-round talent late in his high school season before fatigue really took its toll and his velocity tumbled, and I rank him slightly ahead of Smoker. Both of those guys are similar to Gibson, though, in that both are mature above their years and seem like pretty safe bets — you don’t have to dream much on those guys. I think all three could move quickly for high school guys, and all three have a good chance to be big league starters, though not necessarily front-of-the-rotation starters.

Q: Who is destined for a better MLB future with the Nats; Jordan Zimmerman or Colten Willems?

• Aaron Fitt: Willems has a huge upside, but Zimmermann is a much safer bet in my mind, and his stuff is nasty in its own right. I’ll take Zimmermann.

Q: Adrian Alaniz was a bit old for the league and came from a big college program, but he put up great numbers. What does his future look like?

• Aaron Fitt: Velocity is fringy, and he dominated less advanced hitters by pitching backwards with a four-pitch mix. He can hit his spots and pitch to contact, but his ceiling is low… No. 5 spot starter, best-case scenario, in my mind.

Baseball America debuted their New York/Penn League top 20 prospects today. 2007 second round RHP Jordan Zimmermann was #5, 2006 fourth round LHP Glenn Gibson was #9, and 2006 first round RHP Colton Willems was #11.

Quick hits on each …

• Zimmermann - Zimmermann’s heavy, sinking fastball sits at 91-93 mph range and touches 94, and its life makes it a true plus pitch. He attacks the strike zone with his fastball, his hard slider with late bite and his decent changeup. He’s also working on a 12-to-6 curveball because the Nationals don’t like their young pitchers to throw sliders. Zimmermann has strong legs and good mechanics, and he should only get better the more he pitches in warmer weather.
• Gibson - Gibson pores over hitting and pitching charts before every start so he can exploit hitters’ weaknesses. He mixes speeds and locations very well. He’s starting to fill out his lean frame and he ran his fastball up to 91 mph this summer, though he usually pitches in the high 80s with late movement.
• Willems - He came out strong this summer, regularly running his fastball up to 94-95 mph and pitching in the low 90s. His downer curveball and changeup are both promising offerings, but he’s still working on refining his command.

As of this morning, the Nationals are tied with the San Francisco Giants for the eighth pick in the 2008 draft. And since the tiebreaker in such cases is the previous year’s record, the Nationals would be awarded the #8 pick while the Giants would get the #9 (0.472 for SF in 2006 versus 0.438 for WAS in 2006).

With last night’s win, the Nationals can no longer get the #1 overall pick in the draft as the worst they could finish is tied with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for the worst record in MLB and by the same tiebreaking criteria, would get the #2 pick. The best the Nationals can finish is tied with Oakland for the #13 pick which would be awarded to the Nationals on a tiebreaker.

• Across the Affiliates 2007 - DSL (1 of 7)
• Across the Affiliates 2007 - GCL (2 of 7)

Pitching, pitching, pitching. It’s a mantra that Nationals GM Jim Bowden has repeated time and time again since joining the team in the winter of 2004. While the Nationals have managed to find a few serviceable arms from within, starting pitchers like Shawn Hill and Jason Bergmann, the organizational depth on the mound has been a weakness throughout MLB’s stewardship of the Expos. That appears to be changing and the 2007 Lake Monsters are the first indicator that the right steps are underway to rebuild the player development system. Vermont’s starting rotation featured no fewer than five arms that have a good chance of developing into future major leaguers. This stable of strong arms led Vermont to a 38-37 record, one of only three Nationals affiliates with an above 0.500 record (DSL Nationals1 and Potomac were the others).

STATISTICS

Hitting

Pitching

The Lake Monsters rode their strong pitching to thirty-eight victories. 2006 1st & 4th rounders Colton Willems & Glenn Gibson and 2007 2nd & 8th rounders Jordan Zimmermann & Adrian Alaniz spearheaded the strong staff of starters. The four combined for twenty of the team’s thirty-eight wins with a 2.03ERA, 1.11WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and 3.3 K/BB. Not to be completely outdone by the starters, 2007 draft picks Martin Beno (36th rd), Caleb Staudt (39th), and  Luke Pisker (17th) who combined for three wins and three saves over 53 total appearances (79IP) with a 3.08ERA, 1.06WHIP, a sub-0.200 Opponents BA, and 10.5K/9.

Offensively, the Monsters were below average in hitting for average and power but reached base on an average basis and when they did, led the New York/Penn League in stolen bases with 107. Boomer Whiting led the way with 37/42 stolen bases while Garrett Bass (16/20), Mark Gildea (16/23), and Dan Lyons (17/20) helped Vermont generate a nearly league average number runs despite their below average hitting.

It appeared that the Nationals utilized the 2007 draft as a means of repopulating the lower level of the minor leagues with new blood from the college ranks. In previous two seasons, the Nationals signed only 49 total players, requiring them to fill several of their roster spots in Vermont with older players. The New York/Penn League limits rostters to no more than four players who are 23 or older, and no more than three players on active list may have four or more years of prior service. In previous seasons, the Nationals were typically right around those maximums, filling in spots with older and more experienced players. This past season, the Nationals signed 39 players alone and of those only CA Sean Rooney was a regular starter from a previous draft class.

It seems the Nationals have made the effort to assemble a population of future organizational players, allowing them to scale back their reliance on the six-year free agents going forward. In 2007, both Hagerstown and Potomac featured many players who would be classified as too old for the league they were in and the direction taken in this year’s draft should allow the Nationals to stabilize their A-ball rosters with relatively younger players who are under the team’s control for four years. This is not to be taken too lightly as the Nationals are now able to develop a “Nationals way” of player development that should permit them more consistent instruction up the player development ladder.

Regular Lineup

‘*’ = lefthanded pitcher 

As explained above, the Monsters featured an everyday lineup of 2007 draft picks who were likely selected because they fit the mold of what the Nationals future of player development is going to be. From a quick scan of their individual statistics, the Nationals have seemingly focused on plate discipline/pitch identification from their hitters. After last year’s performance where the team batted a collective 233/296/311 with only 186 walks and 611 strikeouts, the 2007 team moved up to league average with a 245/332/343 while increasing their number of walks (257) and reducing their number of strkeouts (558).

Top 10 Vermont Lake Monsters Prospects

1. Colton Willems RHSP
2. Josh Smoker LHSP
3. Jack McGeary LHSP
4. Jordan Zimmermann RHSP
5. Glenn Gibson LHSP
6. Adrian Alaniz RHSP
7. Bill Rhinehart 1B
8. Mark Gildea CF
9. Garrett Bass LF/RF
10. Boomer Whiting LF/CF

Note: RF Michael Burgess, CF Stephen Englund, and 2B/SS Stephen King were not included on this list given their inclusion on the GCL roster. If these players were slotted among the top 10 list here, Burgess would be the #1 and Englund and King would slide in between Gibson and Alaniz at #6 and 7 respectively. 

Willems had an inconsistent season but remains the most projectable of the arms in Vermont. From reports, the Nationals have tinkered with Willems’ delivery in order to allow him to more easily repeat his delivery. If this is the case, it will bear watching whether he can adapt to the changes and regain the fastball velocity he had (mid-90s) while at the same time gain more command on his secondary pitches (a curve and slider). Willems is the definition of high risk/high reward. Of all of the pitchers in the Nationals organization, he is the most likely to develop into the frontline #1 starter that the Nationals need to develop. I’d expect the Nationals to pair him with Gibson in Hagerstown to begin the 2008 season with the chance of a promotion to Potomac if the results dictate.

Smoker is intriguing to me. Scouting reports say he used six pitches while he was in high school (three different fastballs, curve, slider & change). His fastball has been clocked up to 94mph, his curveball is hard on even the righthanded hitters, and he uses his splitter as a strikeout pitch. He projects as a #2-3 starting pitcher but given his tenacity he is the type of pitcher major league teams love to have as anchors in their rotations. Given his late signing and limited playing time, a return to Vermont in 2008 is likely.

McGeary was the surprise get form the 2007 draft. Like Smoker, he’s a lefthander that projects out well, likely as a middle of the rotation starting pitcher (#2 or 3). Unlike Smoker, McGeary isn’t a power pitcher, his strength is his command. He has a low-90s fastball and low-80s breaking pitch. He has drawn comparisons to both Andy Pettitte and Tom Glavine and the Nationals should be happy if he turns into half of that. McGeary signed an unusual contract that allows him to attend Stanford and take classes, meaning his 2008 debut is likely in Vermont once his semester ends (likely missing the first couple weeks of the NY/Penn League season).

Zimmermann touched the mid-90s in the 2006 summer league, vaulting the Division III righthander onto the map for the 2007 draft. He has three solid pitches already (fastball, change, and slider) with a developing curveball. It’s going to get redundant but like the previous two arms, Zimmermann projects out as a #2-3 starting pitcher. He appears likely to start 2008 in Potomac.

Gibson was the story of the early part of the season for the Monsters as he baffled teams with his plus curveball. His curve along with his changeup are already above average. His fastball sits in the high-80s/low-90s but he might be able to add a couple of mph as he fills out. Gibson has the looks of a middle of the rotation starting pitcher and it would not surprise me to see the Nationals push him quickly though he is likely to begin 2008 in Hagerstown. Along with Ross Detwiler, Smoker, and McGeary, the Nationals have assembled for themselves four very promising lefthanded starting pitchers.

Add another pitcher to the docket for the Nationals, Alaniz will never be mistaken for a dominating power pitcher. He gets by on his impressive command and guile. His fastball sits in the high-80s and he has a solid curveball. What allows Alaniz to succeed is his control. He seems most likely to develop into a back of the rotation starter but every major league team needs a reserve of those. Expect Alaniz to start 2008 in Potomac with Zimmermann.

Finally. A bat. Bill Rhinehart made himself known from day one in Vermont, driving in runs at a spectacular rate, thirteen RBI in his first twelve games. His bat is his calling card though he likely has the ceiling of a major league reserve. He played 1B for Vermont in 2007 but don’t be surprised if the Nationals try him out as a corner outfielder in 2008. Depending upon how the roster depth shakes out, Rhinehart could start out next season as high as Harrisburg though Potomac seems more reasonable.

Gildea was a ninth round selection as a draft eligible sophomore and the Nationals got him signed, a nice haul for that part of the draft. Gildea projects well as a center fielder. He has above average speed, knows how to work the count, and has line-drive power that could develop into home runs. He is not flashy, just a solid performer. If you were to ask me for a sleeper prospect, it would be Gildea. Expect him to start 2008 in centerfield for Potomac.

Bass, the son of former major leaguer, Kevin Bass, was grabbed in the 42nd round but put up extrabase numbers well beyond a 42nd round selection with 23 XBH out of 58 total. He played almost the entire season as the Monsters DH and is corner outfielder if he plays the field. Bass has the baseball genes though he likely is a #4 outfielder as a ceiling. given his age (22) it would be best for him to start 2008 in Potomac as corner outfielder/designated hitter.

Whiting’s calling card is his speed. He ran the 60 in 6.3 seconds and led the NCAA with 69 stolen bases in 2007. He has solid insticts defensively in CF though his arm is below average. He is a fun player to watch given his ability to manufacture runs on his own. I would expect a debut in Hagerstown in 2008.

With last night’s loss to the Phillies, the Nationals “clinched” a protected first round selection in the 2008 draft. According to the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, the first fifteen selections of the first round are protected from being used as compensation for signing Type A free agents. The Nationals fell to 68-85 on the season with the 7-6 defeat and in doing so can finish in no “worse” than a tie for 14th with the Toronto Blue Jays. As of this morning, the Nationals have the #9 selection in the 2008 draft and can still finish with any pick from #1 to the #15.

UPDATE:

Here are a few more bits of information on how the draft order will shake out for the Nationals …

and the remaining schedules …

• Tampa plays six of their final nine against teams leading either their division or the wild card
• Baltimore has three games remaining against a wild card leading team
• Every one of Florida’s game is against a division leading team
• The White Sox are playing only three games with a team that has a chance (and those odds are long for Detroit)
• Pittsburgh has six games against division leaders
• Kansas City has three against a division leader and three against longshot Detroit
• Houston has only three games with longshot Atlanta
• The Giants have three games with a division leader
• Every one of the Nationals game has playoff implications
• Cincy has only three games with playoff implications
• Texas also has three games with a division leader
• St. Louis has four games with playoff implications
• Oakland faces all division leaders
• Minnesota closes with four games against a likely playoff team
• Toronto has four games remaining against a likely playoff team

Baseball America has begun their top prospect rankings with the Gulf Coast League. OF Michael Burgess was ranked the #1 overall prospect.

Of all the players with a draft pedigree or a solid international background, just one performed to where he stood out among all the rest. The lone exception was Nationals outfielders Michael Burgess, a supplemental first-round pick who leads our GCL prospects list.

“He doesn’t run real well, but when you hit it as far as he does it doesn’t matter,” said one scout from a National League club. “He was very aggressive in all phases of the game. He had something to prove. Pitchers really went after him and challenged him, and he just ate that up.”

Baseball America noted that MI/CF Alexei Ramirez, a Cuban defector who played in the 2006 World Baseball Classic, has selected Jamie Torres as his agent and is ready to come to MLB. Ramirez is reportedly 26-years old and has played CF for the Cuban National team in the WBC, SS for Pinar Del Rio in the Cuban National League, and also at 2B for the Cuban national team. From what I can find, he seems to most resemble Julio Lugo in terms of projected abilities.

If he can play center field, he seems to be an intriguing option for the Nationals this off-season. His salary demands would not seem to be at the level of the top tier CFs on the market (Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand) but it definitely would be a risk on whether he would provide a solid return.

The Dominican Winter League held their draft yesterday and there were eight Nationals prospects among the players selected in the 20 round draft …

‘+’ De la Cruz was released by the Nationals this season per his request

Núñez, Cabral, and Novoa will likely be starters (Núñez & Novoa in the rotation) for their respective teams this winter. While the others will likely fill bullpen or bench roles. The season begins in mid-October.