Baseball America has begun their top prospect rankings with the Gulf Coast League. OF Michael Burgess was ranked the #1 overall prospect.
Of all the players with a draft pedigree or a solid international background, just one performed to where he stood out among all the rest. The lone exception was Nationals outfielders Michael Burgess, a supplemental first-round pick who leads our GCL prospects list.
“He doesn’t run real well, but when you hit it as far as he does it doesn’t matter,” said one scout from a National League club. “He was very aggressive in all phases of the game. He had something to prove. Pitchers really went after him and challenged him, and he just ate that up.”
Pilchard | 20-Sep-07 at 12:25 pm | Permalink
Love that Burgess is the top prospect, but be cautioned that the GCL is light years from MLB. As an example take a look at BA’s top 10 from the GCL 5 years ago:
1. Chad Petty, lhp, Tigers.
2. *Anderson Hernandez, ss, Tigers.
3. Bronson Sardinha, ss, Yankees.
4. *Manny Delcarmen, rhp, Red Sox.
5. Carlos Duran, of, Braves.
6. Josh Thigpen, rhp, Red Sox.
7. *Victor Diaz, 2b, Dodgers.
8. *Ezequiel Astacio, rhp, Phillies.
9. Gonzalo Lopez, rhp, Braves.
10. Alan Moye, of, Reds
Only 3 on that list have appeared in the bigs (those with *) and none is even close to a regular MLB player. This is fairly standard for the rookie leages as the vast majority of rookie-league level players (even top prospects) flame-out.
chris | 20-Sep-07 at 12:53 pm | Permalink
Do you think Michael Burgess could produce like Gary Sheffield in like 5 years? And could Ben Revere end up like a Jose Reyes in center but with a below average arm?
A: Chris Kline: I think both are fair assessments. And I definitely see Revere as being a whole lot more than Denard Span. A whole lot more.
Somebody elses question but an exciting comparison.
Great work as always! What can you tell me about Nationals SS Esmailyn Gonzalez? Did he not have enough ABs to qualify for the top 20 or was his performance in the GCL the deciding factor. How does he project in the future?
A: Chris Kline: Thanks, JB. We appreciate it very much. Gonzalez qualified; showed good plate discipline and better defense. Scouts just really question how much he’ll hit at this point–which was also a question before he signed.
estuartj | 20-Sep-07 at 12:54 pm | Permalink
I’m surprised even 3 GCL guys appeared in the bigs, considering the age of most prospects at that level.
I hope Burgess spends some time at Potomac next year so I can see him in person.
If he continues to excel we might see him in the bigs when Kearns contract is up at the end of ‘10.
Hartmanbirge | 20-Sep-07 at 2:28 pm | Permalink
Burgess is yet another prospect that Keith Law says has severe limitations - everyone points to a “hitch” in his swing that looks to be impossible to correct. And that once he begins to rise to tougher pitching he will be exploited….. so let’s see what he does once he gets to Potomac.
Ref the interview with Kasten - looks like Nats will NOT be going for a big FA signing. And they talked about trading prospects for offensive help - pitching prospects. This year’s draft is off the table so that means last year’s and prior. I would not like hearing all of this were I Colton Willems or Glenn Gibson. Not sure what obvious holes we have at this point. Is Logan such a liability? Debatable. There is a logjam at 2B…. a logjam at 1B….. and Church has proven himself to be average at best… At this point Pena is a lock. Kearns a lock. Zimmerman. And the catchers. Anyone else - up in the air I think.
dd | 20-Sep-07 at 2:46 pm | Permalink
Church gets no love. His hitting stats are better than Kearns, pretty much across the board, for a bargain basement price.
As far as evaluating players from the Rookie and low A ball, anyone remember former Expos prospect Fernando Dasilva, who set the league on fire in the GCL (1992)?
Louis J. | 20-Sep-07 at 3:04 pm | Permalink
When are you folks going to forget about Keith Law? Name me someone he likes! Also, I’ve said all along that Kasten will not pay free agent $$$ and now has ruled out Tier 1 and Tier 2 free agents. The only free agent’s left are those utility players for a year @ $700K-$1mil. Finally, don’t be surprise if the Nats trade a good prospect such as Costo, Lannan or Balester for a good hitting CF AND/OR Chad Cordero (w/Rauch moving to closer) for a young starter with ML experience. How about Cordero, Costo and Colome to Giants for Sanchez (LHP), Velez (SS-Rickey Henderson type) and Brian Wilson (RH-RP w/ explosive fastball). OR some package of minor leaguers to Tampa for Rocco Baldelli (CF-R/R), if healthy and renew his options for 2008/2009/2010. Ryan Church may get you Sean Gallagher (RH-SP) from the Cubs.
Hartmanbirge | 20-Sep-07 at 10:41 pm | Permalink
Ref Law…. he provides the counter view to any hype - not a bad thing to hear so that we know the negative on our beloved Nats prospects. Above I think you’re referring to Casto when you say Costo. He really hurt himself this year. I don’t know that my pulmonary system can withstand another year with Cordero as the closer. The guy puts WAY too many on base and creates excitement. Top of the line closers just don’t do that. If you’re another club, would YOU want to give up a lot to get a cardiac creator? I doubt that the market for Cordero is very high - at least not closer value. And Church…. there is a defined sense of averageness to his entire game. No one factor of his game stands out - hitting, power, fielding, arm, running - all average at best. I think he’s proven this year that he would be a fine fourth outfielder but starting for a full season he starts to become a liability. Kearns plays good defense and has a plus arm - he’s above average in both respects. I also think that his power numbers could improve, at least they have the potential of doing so - he’s done it before. With Church, I get the impression that his power numbers are about at their peek. And there are other more subtle differences - Kearns is a stabilizing influence in the locker room and plays the game the right way. When I read about Church he’s always talking about himself which lends credence to the rumors that he’s a bit unstable.
Louis J. | 21-Sep-07 at 7:53 am | Permalink
Hartmanbirge
I may share your opinion of Cordero BUT the Giants don’t have a natural closer and Cordero, Hennessey, Messenger, Correia, Chulk, Kline and Colome would make a very good bullpen to support starters like Zito, Cain, Lincecum and Lowry.
Also, remember, the Cubs were interested in Church before the season started because they only have one dependable outfielder, Soriano. Cliff Floyd is a free agent and is always injured; they have been trying to unload Jacque Jones and his contract all year; Craig Monroe can’t hit; Matt Murton is okay and Felix Pie is hitting .214 and LOU like Church. Church could easliy play CF for the Cubs and would hit better in Wrigley Field and add more power than Pie and Murton is more dependable starting in RF. The Cubs would have Soriano, Theriot, Lee, Ramirez, Church, DeRosa, Murton and catcher (Soto/Kendall) as a lineup to support their good starting pitching. And they can obtain Church by giving up a pitcher who is stuck in the bullpen because of the current rotation.
Jonathan Sanchez (LHP), Eugenio Velez (SS) and Brian Wilson(bullpen) of Giants and Sean Gallagher (RHP) can all make the 25 roster next year. And if the Nats can figure some agreeable package for the oft-injured Baldelli (Tampa-CF-age 26), they can obtain a veteran CF who was a great defensive/offensive player before his hamstring problems of 2007. The 2007 lineup could be Velez, Baldelli, Zimmerman, Johnson, Kearns, Wily Mo, Felipe Lopez and catcher with Patterson (??), Hill, Bergmann, Sanchez, Gallagher, Chico, Redding, Simontacchi and either Lannan/Balester if not traded with Rauch, Wilson, Wagner, Ayala, Schroder, Rivera, Bowie, Albaladeja, etc. in the bullpen.
Louis J. | 21-Sep-07 at 10:12 am | Permalink
Ref Keith Law-
Forget him, he’s nothing more than a “shock-jock” reporter who says the things he does for negative impact for attention- like talk radio jocks. Such as, Maxwell is aweful! We fans have seen a little of Maxwell in September, Does he look aweful. Manny said that he has not been over-matched, offensively, so far. Who are you going to believe, your own eyes & Manny Acta or Keith Law. Scouts have watched Michael Burgess play in the GCL in 2007 and “love” his hitting and Baseball America has selected him as the “GCL Player of the Year”. This group of people are favorly impressed with Burgess. Keith Law doesn’t like his swing; therefore, he has negative comments about his talent. Again, Who would you rather believe, the scouts and BA or Keith Law?
If you get a chance, go to games to see these prospects play and judge for yourself. For example, I’ve watched Marrero, Maxwell and Daniel play at Potomac and they can hit and run AND with continued physical development and “maturity” that comes from age & experience, they are going to be ML players. Ian Desmond has great talent but needs the “Tiger Wood drive & desire” to be a ML star. Commentors to this site who have watched the Vermont team love the talents of Willems, Gibson, Alaniz, Zimmermann, Bass & Rhinehart. Who are you going to believe, these commentors or Keith Law who has not seen these players? of cource, The success of these players is determined by the players themselves. Time will tell.
Hartmanbirge | 21-Sep-07 at 11:02 am | Permalink
And ref Law….. I concur with your comments 100%… I have taken it as my personal mission to go to his blog and make him look like an idiot. It hasn’t been hard. And to think he has a Harvard degree - my god.