{ 2007 09 24 }

Across the Affiliates 2007 - Vermont (3 of 7)

Pitching, pitching, pitching. It’s a mantra that Nationals GM Jim Bowden has repeated time and time again since joining the team in the winter of 2004. While the Nationals have managed to find a few serviceable arms from within, starting pitchers like Shawn Hill and Jason Bergmann, the organizational depth on the mound has been a weakness throughout MLB’s stewardship of the Expos. That appears to be changing and the 2007 Lake Monsters are the first indicator that the right steps are underway to rebuild the player development system. Vermont’s starting rotation featured no fewer than five arms that have a good chance of developing into future major leaguers. This stable of strong arms led Vermont to a 38-37 record, one of only three Nationals affiliates with an above 0.500 record (DSL Nationals1 and Potomac were the others).

STATISTICS

Hitting

Team AB R H HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB
Vermont 2396 330 588 31 257 558 245 332 343 675 107
NY-PA Avg 2468 340 625 37 253 564 253 332 365 697 76

Pitching

Team IP ERA WHIP BA OPS BAbip K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9
Vermont 635 3.83 1.38 237 662 301 8.6 4.5 1.9 0.5
NY-PA Avg 646 3.89 1.36 253 691 311 7.9 3.5 2.2 0.5

The Lake Monsters rode their strong pitching to thirty-eight victories. 2006 1st & 4th rounders Colton Willems & Glenn Gibson and 2007 2nd & 8th rounders Jordan Zimmermann & Adrian Alaniz spearheaded the strong staff of starters. The four combined for twenty of the team’s thirty-eight wins with a 2.03ERA, 1.11WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and 3.3 K/BB. Not to be completely outdone by the starters, 2007 draft picks Martin Beno (36th rd), Caleb Staudt (39th), and  Luke Pisker (17th) who combined for three wins and three saves over 53 total appearances (79IP) with a 3.08ERA, 1.06WHIP, a sub-0.200 Opponents BA, and 10.5K/9.

Offensively, the Monsters were below average in hitting for average and power but reached base on an average basis and when they did, led the New York/Penn League in stolen bases with 107. Boomer Whiting led the way with 37/42 stolen bases while Garrett Bass (16/20), Mark Gildea (16/23), and Dan Lyons (17/20) helped Vermont generate a nearly league average number runs despite their below average hitting.

Team Hit Pit
Vermont 21.7 20.9
NY-PA Avg 21.4 21.6

It appeared that the Nationals utilized the 2007 draft as a means of repopulating the lower level of the minor leagues with new blood from the college ranks. In previous two seasons, the Nationals signed only 49 total players, requiring them to fill several of their roster spots in Vermont with older players. The New York/Penn League limits rostters to no more than four players who are 23 or older, and no more than three players on active list may have four or more years of prior service. In previous seasons, the Nationals were typically right around those maximums, filling in spots with older and more experienced players. This past season, the Nationals signed 39 players alone and of those only CA Sean Rooney was a regular starter from a previous draft class.

It seems the Nationals have made the effort to assemble a population of future organizational players, allowing them to scale back their reliance on the six-year free agents going forward. In 2007, both Hagerstown and Potomac featured many players who would be classified as too old for the league they were in and the direction taken in this year’s draft should allow the Nationals to stabilize their A-ball rosters with relatively younger players who are under the team’s control for four years. This is not to be taken too lightly as the Nationals are now able to develop a “Nationals way” of player development that should permit them more consistent instruction up the player development ladder.

Regular Lineup

HIT (based on # GS)
CA Sean Rooney, 21
1B Bill Rhinehart, 22
2B Jake Rogers, 23
3B Anthony Benner, 20
SS Dan Lyons, 22
LF Boomer Whiting, 24
CF Mark Gildea, 21
RF Aaron Seuss,22
DH Garrett Bass, 22
BENCH
CA Craig Stinson, 23
UTIL Jean Alvarez, 20
UTIL Jonathan Martinez, 22
2B Stephen King, 19
CF Stephen Englund, 19
RF Michael Burgess, 18
PIT (based on # GS)
SP Hassan Pena, 22
SP Cole Kimball, 21
SP Colton Willems, 18
SP Glenn Gibson, 19*
SP Jordan Zimmermann, 21
SP Adrian Alaniz, 23
other Josh Smoker, 18
other Jack McGeary, 18
RP Martin Beno, 20
RP Ryan Harrison, 20
RP Caleb Staudt, 20
RP Luke Pisker, 21
RP Edulin Abreu, 22
RP Devin Drag, 23
RP Ryan Buchter, 20*
CL Alberto Tavarez, 23

‘*’ = lefthanded pitcher 

As explained above, the Monsters featured an everyday lineup of 2007 draft picks who were likely selected because they fit the mold of what the Nationals future of player development is going to be. From a quick scan of their individual statistics, the Nationals have seemingly focused on plate discipline/pitch identification from their hitters. After last year’s performance where the team batted a collective 233/296/311 with only 186 walks and 611 strikeouts, the 2007 team moved up to league average with a 245/332/343 while increasing their number of walks (257) and reducing their number of strkeouts (558).

Top 10 Vermont Lake Monsters Prospects

  1. Colton Willems RHSP
  2. Josh Smoker LHSP
  3. Jack McGeary LHSP
  4. Jordan Zimmermann RHSP
  5. Glenn Gibson LHSP
  6. Adrian Alaniz RHSP
  7. Bill Rhinehart 1B
  8. Mark Gildea CF
  9. Garrett Bass LF/RF
  10. Boomer Whiting LF/CF

Note: RF Michael Burgess, CF Stephen Englund, and 2B/SS Stephen King were not included on this list given their inclusion on the GCL roster. If these players were slotted among the top 10 list here, Burgess would be the #1 and Englund and King would slide in between Gibson and Alaniz at #6 and 7 respectively. 

Willems had an inconsistent season but remains the most projectable of the arms in Vermont. From reports, the Nationals have tinkered with Willems’ delivery in order to allow him to more easily repeat his delivery. If this is the case, it will bear watching whether he can adapt to the changes and regain the fastball velocity he had (mid-90s) while at the same time gain more command on his secondary pitches (a curve and slider). Willems is the definition of high risk/high reward. Of all of the pitchers in the Nationals organization, he is the most likely to develop into the frontline #1 starter that the Nationals need to develop. I’d expect the Nationals to pair him with Gibson in Hagerstown to begin the 2008 season with the chance of a promotion to Potomac if the results dictate.

Smoker is intriguing to me. Scouting reports say he used six pitches while he was in high school (three different fastballs, curve, slider & change). His fastball has been clocked up to 94mph, his curveball is hard on even the righthanded hitters, and he uses his splitter as a strikeout pitch. He projects as a #2-3 starting pitcher but given his tenacity he is the type of pitcher major league teams love to have as anchors in their rotations. Given his late signing and limited playing time, a return to Vermont in 2008 is likely.

McGeary was the surprise get form the 2007 draft. Like Smoker, he’s a lefthander that projects out well, likely as a middle of the rotation starting pitcher (#2 or 3). Unlike Smoker, McGeary isn’t a power pitcher, his strength is his command. He has a low-90s fastball and low-80s breaking pitch. He has drawn comparisons to both Andy Pettitte and Tom Glavine and the Nationals should be happy if he turns into half of that. McGeary signed an unusual contract that allows him to attend Stanford and take classes, meaning his 2008 debut is likely in Vermont once his semester ends (likely missing the first couple weeks of the NY/Penn League season).

Zimmermann touched the mid-90s in the 2006 summer league, vaulting the Division III righthander onto the map for the 2007 draft. He has three solid pitches already (fastball, change, and slider) with a developing curveball. It’s going to get redundant but like the previous two arms, Zimmermann projects out as a #2-3 starting pitcher. He appears likely to start 2008 in Potomac.

Gibson was the story of the early part of the season for the Monsters as he baffled teams with his plus curveball. His curve along with his changeup are already above average. His fastball sits in the high-80s/low-90s but he might be able to add a couple of mph as he fills out. Gibson has the looks of a middle of the rotation starting pitcher and it would not surprise me to see the Nationals push him quickly though he is likely to begin 2008 in Hagerstown. Along with Ross Detwiler, Smoker, and McGeary, the Nationals have assembled for themselves four very promising lefthanded starting pitchers.

Add another pitcher to the docket for the Nationals, Alaniz will never be mistaken for a dominating power pitcher. He gets by on his impressive command and guile. His fastball sits in the high-80s and he has a solid curveball. What allows Alaniz to succeed is his control. He seems most likely to develop into a back of the rotation starter but every major league team needs a reserve of those. Expect Alaniz to start 2008 in Potomac with Zimmermann.

Finally. A bat. Bill Rhinehart made himself known from day one in Vermont, driving in runs at a spectacular rate, thirteen RBI in his first twelve games. His bat is his calling card though he likely has the ceiling of a major league reserve. He played 1B for Vermont in 2007 but don’t be surprised if the Nationals try him out as a corner outfielder in 2008. Depending upon how the roster depth shakes out, Rhinehart could start out next season as high as Harrisburg though Potomac seems more reasonable.

Gildea was a ninth round selection as a draft eligible sophomore and the Nationals got him signed, a nice haul for that part of the draft. Gildea projects well as a center fielder. He has above average speed, knows how to work the count, and has line-drive power that could develop into home runs. He is not flashy, just a solid performer. If you were to ask me for a sleeper prospect, it would be Gildea. Expect him to start 2008 in centerfield for Potomac.

Bass, the son of former major leaguer, Kevin Bass, was grabbed in the 42nd round but put up extrabase numbers well beyond a 42nd round selection with 23 XBH out of 58 total. He played almost the entire season as the Monsters DH and is corner outfielder if he plays the field. Bass has the baseball genes though he likely is a #4 outfielder as a ceiling. given his age (22) it would be best for him to start 2008 in Potomac as corner outfielder/designated hitter.

Whiting’s calling card is his speed. He ran the 60 in 6.3 seconds and led the NCAA with 69 stolen bases in 2007. He has solid insticts defensively in CF though his arm is below average. He is a fun player to watch given his ability to manufacture runs on his own. I would expect a debut in Hagerstown in 2008.

Posted by Brian Oliver on Monday, September 24th, 2007, at 11:00 am, and filed under Vermont (SS), Across the Affiliates.

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