Comments on: Across the Affiliates 2007 - Vermont (3 of 7)

By: Tofu Dog

Tofu Dog — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 15:40:10 +0000

On the top ten, I would respectfully disagree. If the rating is based on the league then weighting so heavily for ultimate potential undercuts the rationale for rating by league. Smoker and McGeary hardly pitched and when they did they were ineffective, so to rate them more highly than Jordan Zimmerman who was one of the top pitchers in the league seems questionable. Zimmerman is older than the two high school pitchers and while McGeary and Smoker may have more upside, the differences going into the draft were not that significant. So I would go with performance over scouting reports that may or may not bear fruit. I think the same argument could be made for Gibson. Your rating seems to correlate exactly with where they were taken in the draft. Willems came out of a pretty weak draft so to rate him so highly when his numbers show several notable weaknesses, also seems questionable. Potential makes sense in an overall rating of the Nationals system, but league by league not so much.

By: Brian Oliver

Brian Oliver — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 15:46:23 +0000

The rating is based more on the future than on what they did in one calendar year. If you want to see who performed best for the Monsters, you can look at the statistics for that. Smoker and McGeary are included here because they would not appear anywhere else otherwise.

And realistically at this point, any ranking is merely a guess even if you include stats. Until players get a couple of years under their belts it really comes down to what scouting reports tell you.

By: Tofu Dog

Tofu Dog — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 16:40:11 +0000

Thanks for the response.

By: e

Mon, 24 Sep 2007 18:34:43 +0000

what do you think of Aaron Seuss? He seemed to be lighting it up the first couple of months (.329/.372/.461), then took a nose dive in August and September (.225/.307/.281). Could it have been fatigue?

By: Brian Oliver

Brian Oliver — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 18:41:20 +0000

Seuss was the last cut for #10, call him 10a. It’s hard to say whether it was fatigue or whether teams figured out how to pitch him. Along with Bass, I’d have to say that Seuss’ performance surprised me the most.

By: Basil

Basil — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 19:01:19 +0000

Interestingly, in both ERA and in components, the Vermonsters had essentially a league-average pitching staff. That might not really say anything about the standouts, of course, and it might well be an improvement on prior years.

By: Brian Oliver

Brian Oliver — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 19:10:18 +0000

Basil - Yes, and it’s even more interesting when you consider how strongly the staff started in aggregate. They regressed to the mean by putting up some ugly outings late {insert sample size discussion here}

By: Louis J.

Louis J. — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 20:11:55 +0000

Brian
Thanks for the information and analysis. Your effort is greatly appreciated. Regardless of everybody’s opinion, it appears that the Nats farm system is beginning to improve. Of course, it will take a few years for new prospects to work their way up which means that the AA and AAA teams will still be behind the curve.

By: Dick

Dick — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 20:39:42 +0000

One thing interesting about Willems is that he is a pretty severe sinkerball/groundball pitcher. If he can harness his control and up his strikeouts, he could have a very high upside.

By: Benji

Benji — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 22:07:30 +0000

Brian, do you of a website that has good scouting reports?
great work, can’t wait to see an overall prospects list.
My guess is Burgess is #1 maybe marrero

By: Tofu Dog

Tofu Dog — Tue, 25 Sep 2007 02:38:08 +0000

Keith Law of ESPN had Burgess at 15 and Detwiler 5 in his top 100 posted at the end of May–see Keith Law Archives. Although the meat-heads hate him he used the aggregate MLB scouting reports to derive his own rankings. Baseball America generates independent scouting reports and if you use the two sources together,you have as accurate a prognostication tool as you can have without paying the scouts Mike Rizzo and Dana Brown have working for them.

By: Louis J.

Louis J. — Tue, 25 Sep 2007 12:23:27 +0000

Tofu Dog

Maybe, just maybe, the “meat-heads” are the people who are fooled by Keith Law’s “stuff” and actually believe that he knows what he ’s talking about. Maybe some one should be asking, Why does he put out all of his negative comments? Answer, PUBLICITY!

By: Tofu Dog

Tofu Dog — Tue, 25 Sep 2007 18:05:12 +0000

LJ, Actually, in Archie Bunker’s universe, Law would qualify as a meat-head. But I think Law does a good job in covering young talent. He just goes overboard in putting youth at too high a premium, which is probably why he is not in Toronto anymore. Most of his disdain for the Nationals has been targeted at Bowden and many folks who work in GM offices around the country seem to share that opinion. You see it pop up in a lot of articles on the web. Law was one of the only people who took the final scouting reports before the draft and put together a list from them and I think if fans are interested in the amateur draft, he is a good resource.

By: Louis J.

Louis J. — Tue, 25 Sep 2007 19:53:44 +0000

Tofu Dog
Bowden also makes me uncomfortable. I don’t trust him either and I’m not sure Kasten trusts him. But Kasten knows that Bowden has the ear of Mark Lerner and he’s doing a good job so far. Therefore, Kasten knows that this not the time to rock the boat and replace him. BUT, the fact that Law doesn’t like Bowden would make his evaluation of Nats prospects and trades extremely bias and worthless. In that respect, I put him in the same category as Bowden. I don’t trust him either.

While I don’t trust Bowden, I must admit that things have improved for the franchise. The lineup has been improved with Kearns, Lopez, Guzman, Young, Belliard, Jimenez, Flores, Wily Mo and the draft choices like Zimmerman, Maxwell, Marerro, Detwiler, Willems, Gibson, Smoker, McGeary, Burgess, etc., etc., etc. And, where did he find the pitchers that no other GM found? And, lets not forget the one year of Alfonso Soriano.

Finally, some GM don’t like him because their incompetent such as the Cincinnati GM who traded away Kearns, Lopez, Wagner to Nats and Wily Mo to Boston while that same GM took Cincinnati from a playoff team in July,2006 to a team with only 71 wins in Sept, 2007! Bowden made the guy look like a fool!! Remember, in the end, the Nats unloaded Vidro and his $15 mil contract for Wil Mo, Langerhans and $2.5 mil cash to Seattle. That will make some GM jealous!

By: Tom

Tom — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:50:08 +0000

Brian,
As usual a great evaluation job!
Everyone remember at this level the evaluation is all about youth and potential and very little to do with actual performance. I believe Baseball Perpectus doesn’t do its major league projections until a player has AA playing time. BP believes performance at AA level is the first relavent playing experience that actually translates to projectable ML performance.
So we are still in the potential area here.

By: Mark

Mark — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 02:33:34 +0000

The best line I ever heard about Bowden was after he had been here a few months; that he was a brilliant mind who would do great things as long as he had adult supervision. I think events have borne that out so far– lots of terrific moves, but he’s been unable to do his out-of-control thing in the front office that he’s shown in the past.

By: Suns Fan

Suns Fan — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 06:03:41 +0000

I think King would’ve been better off if he had been assigned to Vermont in the beginning. As it was, he came to Hagerstown for a month, then went back to rookie ball for most of the season, and spent a few weeks in Vermont (where he really needed to be). It’ll be interesting to see if there’s a difference next year (assuming he starts at Hagerstown). He has some potential.

By: Bob King

Bob King — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 16:00:22 +0000

King’s “bad” experience in Hagerstown was a valuable lesson and learning tool for him. The same can be said for his “Rookie” ball season in Vierra, and his finish in Vermont. These lessons MUST be learned by experiencing them…and he did just that. Most importantly, he stayed healthy for most of the entire season (his longest season prior to this was a 30 game High School season), and is still a very confident and determined player. Remember that when he started in Hagerstown he had not played a “live” game in almost 10 months! Becoming a professional baseball player is more of a marathon than a sprint…patience!

By: Suns Fan

Suns Fan — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 16:19:02 +0000

This is true. Though I may wear a helmet when he bats next year (I was almost it by a lost bat of his that flew into the stands). More Pine Tar! (which he did right after he got the bat back from the kid that picked it up) :).

Even at Hagerstown, King showed some potential. Felipe Lopez had a similar first month here (.185). The Blue Jays kept him here for the rest of the season, and he improved. The thing about the minor leagues is that sometimes you can’t personally see the improvements because guys get sent elsewhere. Of the people on the Suns for the whole season, Michael Martinez was probably the guy that improved the most from start to finish. Leonard Davis (gone for the last month) also improved his defense–and learned a new position–during the season. Cabral did well the entire season, which tells me maybe he should’ve been at Potomac.

I think that there are other players that were on the Suns–Patrick Nichols foremost amongst them–that would really improve if they were given more playing time. Nichols has a great arm, and he is an excellent clutch hitter. If he could just take what he does in the clutch, and do that at every at-bat, he’d be one heck of a player.

By: Suns Fan

Suns Fan — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 16:22:51 +0000

Also, the transition to wood bats shouldn’t be overlooked when it comes to hitting (and flying bats for that matter too). It’s a difficult transition.

By: Tofu Dog

Tofu Dog — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 14:08:24 +0000

Baseball America’s Vermont League Top Twenty was posted this morning. Zimmerman–5th, Gibson–9th, and Willems–11th. That makes more sense to me. It is early yet and Brad Meyer got the bump up to Potomac, but I think Zimmerman is their best right hander after Balester and that could change as well. Thanks for the thoughtful response LJ. It was interesting to see Bowden at the game last night with an organization woman instead of some bimbo blond. She was carrying a score sheet and the only pair she had were glasses. A nice change from last season, but I would feel better if the Lerners moved him into the Mall Development side of things.

By: Louis J.

Louis J. — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 19:30:09 +0000

Sun Fan
I’m interested in hearing more from you about the prospects at Hagerstown this year and next year. I’m planning on making a few trips to Hagerstown next year to see some of the new faces. Maybe we can stay in touch.

I’ll be watching Cabral, Martinez, Davis and others when they get to Potomac

By: Louis J.

Louis J. — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 19:49:34 +0000

Tofu Dog
I beginning to believe that Jordan Zimmermann has the potential to be the next John Lannan and move up to AAA in one year if his secondary stuff improves in the off-season. Balester is a “surfer dude” from SoCal and discipline may be a challenge. He looked good in the FUTURES GAME at the All-Star game - a tall, lean power pitcher. If he had better control, he would be a definite 2008 potential starter for the Nationals and a lot of fun to watch.

While we may have our comments about Bowden, let’s not get to personal about girl-friends and blondes. Some of us may be married to one. Remember, the “Miracle Worker” has found some great cast-offs for us (like Belliard, Young, Jimenez, Fick, Redding & Hanrahan) and the last of which is Wily Mo who is now hitting breaking pitches, has decreased his strikeouts, is a better outfielder than I thought with good speed and good arm. Where the H—- would the Nationals be without these players? There all looking mar-vel-ous!!

By: Suns Fan

Suns Fan — Fri, 28 Sep 2007 20:29:43 +0000

Martinez was a little old for the South Atlantic League (23, I think). But he has great range and excellent speed. He batted lead off for the Suns for the last few months, and did really well in that role (raised his average 30 points). I think he finished hitting around .250 with 21 doubles, 3 triples, 0 homers, and 32 RBI. He had 13 stolen bases (16 attempts). For the first half, he was pretty much a bench player. Once he started playing every day, I think he hit close to .270.

The downside is that he, even considering the difficulties of Municipal Stadium, made lots of errors. Though he'd go from making an error one play to making a spectacular play the next day. I think he should be moved up to Potomac.