Both Jim Callis (general questions) and Aaron Fitt (New York/Penn League questions) were chatting online this afternoon. here are the Nationals’ related Q&As.
Q: How would you rank order the LHPs the Nationals have in their farm system (Glenn Gibson, Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker, and Jack McGeary)?
- Jim Callis: Detwiler, Smoker, McGeary, Gibson
Q: Jim, what do you think of recent call up Justin Maxwell of the Nats? I heard people say he’s a marginal prospect because of his age/level in the minors.
- Jim Callis: Age does matter, but you have to look at the context. Maxwell has had a series of injuries that held him back, so that’s why he spent most of the year in Class A at age 23. He has a lot of tools and would have been a possible first-round pick coming out of Maryland if not for injuries. He’s legit.
Q: Aaron, Do you see Zimmermann being fast tracked and skipping over Hagerstown since he’s a bit older than Gibson and Willems or a one level at a time advancement ? Thank you
- Aaron Fitt: The Nats seldom hesitate to push their college arms (see: Zinicola, Lannan, Stammen, Spradlin, even Adam Carr) and I suspect they’ll do the same with Zimmermann. He’s got a big arm and pretty good polish, and he should definitely move faster than Willems, though I expect Gibson to hop on the fast track next year also, because he’s very mature for a high school product.
Q: Aaron, the Nationals managed to get three of their arms in the top 20 with Zimmermann, Gibson, and Willems. How would you rate the two Vermonsters in the rotation who didn’t qualify (Josh Smoker & Jack McGeary)? Where would they rank?
- Aaron Fitt: It’s hard to stack them up against other players in the league since neither pitched more than four innings, but I like both of them and anticipate both will crack the Nationals’ top 10. For me, McGeary is very similar to Gibson in stuff, polish and profile, though he might have a bit more projection, since Gibson might never sit in the 90s even when he does fill out his frame. McGeary looked like a back-of-the-first-round talent late in his high school season before fatigue really took its toll and his velocity tumbled, and I rank him slightly ahead of Smoker. Both of those guys are similar to Gibson, though, in that both are mature above their years and seem like pretty safe bets — you don’t have to dream much on those guys. I think all three could move quickly for high school guys, and all three have a good chance to be big league starters, though not necessarily front-of-the-rotation starters.
Q: Who is destined for a better MLB future with the Nats; Jordan Zimmerman or Colten Willems?
- Aaron Fitt: Willems has a huge upside, but Zimmermann is a much safer bet in my mind, and his stuff is nasty in its own right. I’ll take Zimmermann.
Q: Adrian Alaniz was a bit old for the league and came from a big college program, but he put up great numbers. What does his future look like?
- Aaron Fitt: Velocity is fringy, and he dominated less advanced hitters by pitching backwards with a four-pitch mix. He can hit his spots and pitch to contact, but his ceiling is low… No. 5 spot starter, best-case scenario, in my mind.
Ryan Sullivan | 26-Sep-07 at 3:04 pm | Permalink
Brian-
Where do you expect J-Max to start and progress next season? I ask, because I was expecting a totally green wide-eyed player and have been impressed with his poise, and that he seems to belong.
A slight follow-up question: knowing what we’ve seen and read about Justin, would the Nats be better served signing a CF for one year and waiting on Maxwell for 2009, or should we fill the gaping need this offseason (with a Hunter, Andruw Jones, Rowand, etc FA)?
Just curious, thanks-
Ryan
Brian Oliver | 26-Sep-07 at 3:21 pm | Permalink
Ryan - My guess is that Maxwell starts the season in Harrisburg where he is likely to face the tougher pitchers. As for what to do in the offseason, I would not let Maxwell’s presence dictate who to/not to sign. Maxwell might honestly end up being a better fit as a corner OF (not to mention there are no guarantees he’ll develop into a starter).
Ryan Sullivan | 26-Sep-07 at 4:25 pm | Permalink
Brian-
I understood most of your response, but I was curious as to why you thought Maxwell would be a better fit in a corner, rather than CF… he seems like plenty of athlete to play center, and he doesn’t seem to have the power potential you want from a corner- perhaps I am wrong, but I was curious if you would further explain your comments.
Thanks-
Ryan
Louis J. | 26-Sep-07 at 4:26 pm | Permalink
Callis has Gibson ranked 4th among the LHP prospects BUT Fitt expects Gibson to be fast-tracked next year. Appears to be some conflict between Callis/Fitt concerning Gibson. Gibson’s velocity worries people but his command, polish , poise and maturity make-up for the velocity. He will do well and move quickly. Jordan Zimmermann could be a fast mover together with Brad Meyers. Zimmermann has a strong arm and nasty breaking stuff and could move with Dewiler to Harrisburg together. I like Meyers and may move too if he can control his secondary pitches.
Brian Oliver | 26-Sep-07 at 4:31 pm | Permalink
I agree that he has more value as a CF (projection-wise) but my underlying point is the Nationals should not let the presence of Maxwell prevent them from pursuing a CF if they find one. Maxwell can be shifted to a corner OF spot because he has just enough power to be a serviceable with the speed bumping him up to above average.
Brian Oliver | 26-Sep-07 at 4:36 pm | Permalink
Louis - I can see both thoughts meshing. Gibson might be the fourth best LHP of the grouping over the long haul but be able to reach his potential faster than what is typically expected of a LHP of his ilk.
Hypothetically, Gibson might project best as a #3 while Smoker projects as a #2 (just grabbing a random spots). But with Gibson, he is closer to making the majors as a #3 while Smoker requires more seasoning to reach #2. In the long run, Smoker or McGeary might project out better but Gibson might have the pieces to reach his ability quicker.
chris | 26-Sep-07 at 4:45 pm | Permalink
Colt Willems is also said to have grown to 6′6 this summer (Its mentioned in the scouting report and a later question). If thats true its great news as if he fills out that will only add to his velocity and durability
VladiHondo | 27-Sep-07 at 9:21 am | Permalink
From the chat, like the term “Vermonsters”!
A bit surprised how much they like J-Zimm, I think that’s great, and glad they still like Willems alot despite his poor K/BB ratio this year.
Brian Oliver | 27-Sep-07 at 9:36 am | Permalink
I think Zimmermann will be the guy most likely to follow John Lannan’s path in 2008.
Louis J. | 27-Sep-07 at 10:24 am | Permalink
Brian
Re: Justin Maxwell- Corner OF position are crowded w/Pena, Kearns, Church, D. Young & Marrero. CF is a problem and Nats are not going to spend big $$$ in the free agent market to sign Type A/B free agents like Jones, Hunter, Rowand, Cameron. So why sign some TYPE C free agent when you have Church and Logan. Maxwell has the athletic ability to be a good CF’er, maybe as early as July/2008. Plus, if he works on his walk totals, he has the potential to be a leadoff hitter. In 2008, I can see Church & Logan playing CF in the 1st half with Maxwell called up after the trading deadline when Logan would be “moved”.
P.S.- Church has finally convinced me that he could be an important part of the Nats offense. He has enough power (43 doubles/15HR) to worry other teams, he’s a left-handed batter and he can play all OF positions. Last night, he had a double off of Billy Wagner in the 9th inning to drive in 2 big runs to demoralize the Mets. An OF of Wily Mo, Church and Kearns could produce 70 HR in 2008.