John Sickels’ Nationals Top 20

John Sickels releases an annual edition of “The Baseball Prospect Book” where he uses letter grades to assess 30-35 prospects from each MLB organization. He is currently in the process of providing preliminary top 20 lists for each team. Here is the Nats Top 20.

  1. Chris Marrero, 1B-OF, Grade B+ (2006)
  2. Ross Detwiler, LHP, Grade B+ (2007)
  3. Michael Burgess, OF, Grade B+ (2007)
  4. Justin Maxwell, OF, Grade B (2005)
  5. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Grade B (2007)
  6. Collin Balester, RHP, Grade B- (2004)
  7. Josh Smoker, LHP, Grade B- (2007)
  8. Adam Carr, RHP, Grade B- (2006)
  9. John Lannan, LHP, Grade B- (2005)
  10. Glenn Gibson, LHP, Grade C+ (2006)
  11. Colton Willems, RHP, Grade C+ (2006)
  12. Ian Desmond, SS, Grade C+ (2004)
  13. Jack McGeary, LHP, Grade C+ (2007)
  14. Jake Smolinski, OF, Grade C+ (2007)
  15. Jon Albaladejo, RHP, Grade C+ (added from Pittsburgh in 2007)
  16. Adrian Alaniz, RHP, Grade C+ (2007)
  17. Shairon Martis, RHP, Grade C+ (added from Giants in 2006)
  18. Jhonny Nunez, RHP, Grade C+ (added from Dodgers in 2006)
  19. Kory Casto, OF-3B, Grade C+ (2003)
  20. Josh Whitesell, 1B, Grade C (2003)

There are 15 other players in the book. Again, I emphasize that all these grades are preliminary, and that the Grade C+/C guys are close to interchangeable.

There is a lot of Potential pitching depth in this system, and many of those Grade C+ guys have the ability to end up as Grade B/B+ prospects a year from now, once we see them at higher levels and have more data to work with. Overall the Nats have done a good job adding more depth to the system.

Here is what the grades mean:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I’m a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

As a basis of comparison, here are a quick look at the spread of his grades for the past three season’s preliminary top 20s.

Year Grade Count
2006 A (Ryan Zimmerman) 1
B- 2
C+ 11
C 6
2007 B+ 1
B 4
C+ 6
C 9
2008 B+ 3
B 4
C+ 6
C 9

I think that this is a realistic and honest assessment of the Nationals currently have. He is a tough grader but is most often closer to reality than many of the experts out there. I might quibble some with his rankings of Gibson, Willems and McGeary as Cs (he does have a comment about Gibson possibly getting bumped up) but high school pitchers are so volatile developmentally that it is understandable. The only name I see missing from this list is Esmailyn Gonzalez, also one of the crop of younger more volatile prospects. Other names likely to appear in Sickels’ book are likely to be: Rog Bernadina, Stephen Englund, Garrett Mock, Yunior Novoa, Stephen King, Steven Souza, and Brad Meyers.

Fourteen of the twenty names listed above were added to the organization over the past two season. And, the Nats have moved from three top prospects (B or better) to five to nine which is a testament to the work done in organization since the Lerners took over.