Nationals Farm Authority

The Rule 5 draft is scheduled for next week’s Winter Meetings in Nashville, TN.

MLB teams must protect players on their 40-man rosters within four or five years of their original signing. Those left unprotected are available to other teams as Rule 5 picks.

Players who were 18 or younger on June 5 preceding the signing of their first contract must be protected after five minor league seasons. Players 19 and older must be protected after four seasons.

Teams must have an open spot on their 40-man roster in order to participate (the Nationals can with 38 currently on their 40-man roster). To prevent teams from drafting players too many players, each Rule 5 pick must be kept in the major leagues the entire following season or be offered back to his former team for half of the $50,000 selection price.

Last season the Nationals made two Rule 5 selections, one that was kept (Jesus Flores) and one who was offered back to his former team (Levale Speigner). Speigner was eventually acquired by the Nationals in exchange for minor league OF Darnell McDonald.

This year, the Nationals have 61 players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. They are (ordered by position with pitchers in the righthand column):

Player	POS		Player	POS
Cota, Humberto	CA		Atilano, Luis	RHSP
Herrera, Javi	CA		Brownlie, Bobby	RHSP
Ivany, Devin	CA		Karp, Josh	RHSP
Moeller, Chad	CA		Martinez, Carlos	RHSP
Montz, Luke	CA		Tankersley, Dennis	RHSP
Poppert, John	CA		Bacsik, Mike	LHSP
San Pedro, Erick	CA		Hinckley, Mike	LHSP
Sandora, Robert	CA		Novoa, Yunior	LHSP
Jimenez, Luis	1B		Stanford, Jason	LHSP
Mortimer, Steve	1B		Bunn, Greg	RHRP
Broadway, Larry	1B		Campbell, Brett	RHRP
Lawhorn, Trevor	2B		Crawford, Tristan	RHRP
Powell, Brandon	2B		Everts, Clint	RHRP
Bergolla, William	2B		Hall, Josh	RHRP
De Caster, Yurendell	3B		Lehman, James	RHRP
Davis, Leonard	3B		Levinski, Don	RHRP
Bynum, Seth	SS		Morales, Alexis	RHRP
Cabral, Marcos	SS		Peralta, Yader	RHRP
Castro, Ofilio	SS		Perrault, Josh	RHRP
Perez, Antonio	SS		Perrin, Devin	RHRP
Rogelstad, Matt	SS		Shell, Steven	RHRP
Rogers, Ed	SS		Speigner, Levale	RHRP
Yepez, Marcos	SS		Trahan, David	RHRP
Baez, Edgardo	OF		Vargas, Buzz	RHRP
Dubois, Jason	OF		Warden, Jim Ed	RHRP
Fitzpatrick, Reggie	OF		Cedeno, Juan	LHRP
Fulse, Sheldon	OF		Munoz, Arnie	LHRP
Guzman, Francisco	OF		Plexico, Gerald	LHRP
Lowrance, Marvin	OF		Yost, Gene	LHRP
Murphy,Tommy	OF
Padilla, Jorge	OF
Plasencia, Francisco	OF

As you might have noticed, the 19 players the Nationals officially signed yesterday with spring training invitations are among the eligibles. This is correct however it is unlikely a team would opt for any of them. A team could have simply offered a major league contract (and 40-man roster spot) to them and avoided any requirements of the Rule 5 process. An additional six (Powell, Castro, Yepez, Hall, Vargas & Cedeno) were added as minor league free agents this off-season and would be highly unlikely candidates for Rule 5 selection given they were also available to any team this off-season.

That leaves 36 players who are the most likely choices for Rule 5 selection (though I’ll repeat, a team could take any of the above 61 assuming they are willing to keep the player on their 25-man roster for the 2008 season).

Player	POS		Player	POS
Herrera, Javi	CA		Atilano, Luis	RHSP
Ivany, Devin	CA		Karp, Josh	RHSP
Montz, Luke	CA		Martinez, Carlos	RHSP
Poppert, John	CA		Novoa, Yunior	LHSP
San Pedro, Erick	CA		Bunn, Greg	RHRP
Sandora, Robert	CA		Campbell, Brett	RHRP
Mortimer, Steve	1B		Everts, Clint	RHRP
Broadway, Larry	1B		Lehman, James	RHRP
Lawhorn, Trevor	2B		Levinski, Don	RHRP
Davis, Leonard	3B		Morales, Alexis	RHRP
Bynum, Seth	SS		Peralta, Yader	RHRP
Cabral, Marcos	SS		Perrault, Josh	RHRP
Rogelstad, Matt	SS		Perrin, Devin	RHRP
Baez, Edgardo	OF		Speigner, Levale	RHRP
Fitzpatrick, Reggie	OF		Trahan, David	RHRP
Fulse, Sheldon	OF		Plexico, Gerald	LHRP
Guzman, Francisco	OF		Yost, Gene	LHRP
Lowrance, Marvin	OF
Plasencia, Francisco	OF

Of those 36 above, most are not going to be selected as part of the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. They are primarily organizational type players or play a position where it is rare for a rule 5 player to be chosen.

The Rule 5 draft is typically a vehicle for pitchers to move from one team to another. Since the 2000 Rule 5 draft, there have been 113 players selected. Of those 113, 64 players were not returned to their original team (i.e. they played at least one full season on a 25-man roster). Here is the breakdown:

Count	Bats		Count	Arms
40	Drafted		73	Drafted
25	Not returned		39	Not returned
1	CA		10	LHP
3	1B		29	RHP
3	2B
4	3B
8	SS
6	OF

As you can see, the typical candidate to hang around as a Rule 5 draftee is a pitcher. And if a bat is going to stick, it’s usually an OF or MI (typically fast guys who can serve the role of utility IF or OF and pinch runner).

Interesting bit of trivia … Jesus Flores is the first catcher to stick around for a full season over the last seven drafts (I don’t count Chris Shelton as a catcher, he was a DH who happened to catch).

I honestly believe only 11 would warrant Rule 5 consideration and even that is a bit of a stretch …

Player	POS		Player	POS
Broadway, Larry	1B		Novoa, Yunior	LHSP
Davis, Leonard	3B		Campbell, Brett	RHRP
Baez, Edgardo	OF		Everts, Clint	RHRP
			Morales, Alexis	RHRP
			Peralta, Yader	RHRP
			Perrault, Josh	RHRP
			Perrin, Devin	RHRP
			Trahan, David	RHRP

Broadway has seen his chance with the Nationals pass and it would be in his best interest if a team were to grab him in the Rule 5. He does not project to hit enough for a full time role but a team looking for a late inning defensive replacement might consider him an option.

Davis is a guy still looking for a position. He has played 2B, 3B, and the corner OF positions and might have just enough pop (though he does strike out quite a bit) to warrant a spot on the bench. The problem for Davis is he has not played above the High A Carolina League and it may be a reach for a team to grab him.

Baez is another guy who has not played above the Carolina League but has raw power and can play an above average defense in the outfield. It might be wishful thinking to consider him for a fifth OF role given his speed is nothing special.

Campbell (26), Morales (24), Perrault (25), Perrin (26), and Trahan (26) are all fungible RHRPs. Every year an unknown guy like this is grabbed by a team who believes he is only a minor correction from being a serviceable (or better) member of a major league bullpen (like the Nationals tried with Speigner in 2007). All five guys have their upsides and it would not surprise me if one of these guys is tabbed. 

Novoa is a consideration as a rule 5 lefthander who can get buried at the back end of the bullpen as a LOOGY. He is still young enough (23) to develop and a rebuilding team might see value in a lefthander.

Peralta is an intriguing option given his age. He’ll only be 22 when the 2008 season begins and like Novoa (but from the righthand side), he might be an option to be hidden in the bullpen as a mop-up guy. But like Davis and Baez, he still has not had any exposure above High A and he does not have the electric stuff that teams typically look for in a Rule 5 pick.

The last name is one that is familiar to Expos/Nats fans, Clint Everts. Everts was the #5 overall selection of the 2002 draft ahead of the likes of Prince Fielder, Scott Kazmir and Cole Hamels. Tommy John surgery has apparently derailed his career thus far and the Nationals finally moved him from the starting rotation to the bullpen in 2007 in hopes of allowing him to throw harder over a shorter period of time instead of trying to conserve pitches over the course of an average start. A team with a strong pitching coach could take a chance on Everts, installing him in the bullpen in a mop-up role with designs on converting him into a setup man.

My best guess is that the Nationals come out of the the 2007 Rule 5 draft without losing anyone in the major league portion.