Nationals Farm Authority

One of the questions raised with the acquisition of Elijah Dukes is who is going to man the outfield for the Nationals in 2008 out of the foursome of Dukes, Austin Kearns, Lastings Milledge, and Wily Mo Pena.

According to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, there is a possibility that question may be resolved with a trade:

But according to a baseball source with knowledge of the situation, Washington is looking to trade Kearns and infielder Felipe Lopez for starting pitching. The Nationals have interest in Mets right-hander Mike Pelfrey and Twins right-hander Kevin Slowey.

In both cases, I am going to let Chris at Capitol Punishment do the heavy lifting

Lopez

Lopez? The jury is out. He clearly had a terrible year with the bat. If he reverts to past form, he could be ok.

He’ll be 28 in 2008 and made $3.9M in 2007 and is likely to get a slight bump based on nothing other than service time. Assuming he makes roughly $4M+ in 2008, he’ll need to bounce back to warrant that salary.

Kearns

He’s never going to be a 40-homer slugger. He’s never going to throw 25 runners out. He’s never going to drive in 120 runs.

But each little thing he does adds up, combining to make a solid, strong player.

The Nationals are a better team because of Austin Kearns, even if you sometimes need to cock your head and squint your eyes to see it.

Kearns will also play the 2008 season as a 28-year old and in terms of his contract ($5M in 2008; $8M in 2009; $10M team option in 2010 or a $1M buyout) is reasonably affordable given the results.

Who are the pitchers mentioned?

Pelfrey …From Baseball America’s 2007 Prospect Guide (where he was their #1 prospect)

Strengths: There are few pitchers in the minors whose fastball can rival Pelfrey’s. His two-seamer sits at 92-95 mph with fierce sink and late life and rates as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He throws it effortlessly from a 6-foot-7 frame on a steep downhill plane with great extension and solid command. He also has a four-seamer for extra velocity higher in the zone. Though Pelfrey barely needed to use a changeup as an amateur, he already has a good feel for it and it’s his No. 2 pitch. He fiddled with his grip in 2006 and improved his command of the pitch. He fields his position well and has a good pickoff move, though the Mets would like to see him get faster to the plate from the stretch. Weaknesses: A lack of a reliable breaking ball is the biggest thing holding Pelfrey back. He has thrown both a curveball and a slider but now favors the slider, which is better suited for his power arm. He throws it at 84-87 mph with some depth, and he can reduce the break on it to give it more of a cutter look against lefthanders. He has yet to learn how to command his slider consistently, and it probably always will be his third-best pitch. Though his mechanics are clean, he tends to over-rotate his lower half in his windup, which hurts his ability to locate his pitches. The Future: Though he needs better command of his secondary stuff, there’s little left for Pelfrey to prove in the minors. With Martinez out until at least the all-star break, Pelfrey will definitely be in the mix for the Opening Day rotation. He should be in the Mets rotation for years to come and has the potential to be a legitimate No. 1 starter.

2007 #s

Team	G	W	L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG
Minors	15	3	6	80.00	3.94	1.35	6.5	3.3	2.0	0.8	0.260
MLB	15	3	8	72.67	5.57	1.71	5.6	4.8	1.2	0.7	0.298

Slowey …  BBA had him as the Twins #3 in 2007

Strengths: Slowey resembles Brad Radke for his fastball command, which some scouts rate an 8 on their 2-8 scale. He puts his 88-92 fastball wherever he wants, usually with good life. His delivery is so easy that it creates deception. In the high Class A Florida State League all-star game, Slowey threw nine straight fastballs to strike out the side, and only one drew a swing. His moxie makes his tools play up.

Weaknesses: He throws 90 percent fastballs with average velocity, and it’s hard to see Slowey succeeding in the majors with that approach. He saw the benefits of pitching backward—throwing secondary pitches in fastball counts, and vice-versa—against Cuba, when he gave up only one run in five innings. His changeup is ahead of his slurvy breaking ball at this point, but both need more work.

The Future: Slowey could use some Triple-A time and doesn’t have to be protected on the 40-man roster, but he’s also so polished that it would be no surprise if he won a roster spot in spring training. If he learns to use his secondary pitches effectively, his command could make him a frontline starter.

2007 #s

Team	G	W	L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG
Minors	20	10	5	133.67	1.89	0.96	7.2	1.2	5.9	0.3	0.223
MLB	13	4	1	66.67	4.73	1.39	6.3	1.5	4.3	2.2	0.288

Pelfrey has the higher upside but Slowey has clearly put up the numbers already. I am not sure where Kearns would play for the Mets (unless there are plans to flip Ryan Church in a deal for Erik Bedard or Dan Haren). As for the Twins, while yes they do need a center fielder and shortstop, I’m not sure that Lopez will fit the bill at SS defensively nor is Kearns the ideal solution in center field.

But the larger picture is whether either team is looking to move a starting pitcher. If anything, the Mets are looking for starting pitching and unless a Bedard or Haren deal is in the offing, moving Pelfrey is not in the cards. And the Twins continued shopping of Johan Santana (not to mention the trade of Matt Garza) tells me that while they may receive pitching back, keeping Slowey would be a necessity.

While I’d imagine the Nationals would be willing to move Lopez, he is not going to bring either guy in return by himself.

Are either one worth Kearns and Lopez together?

I am not so sure.

The recent acquisitions of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes offers the Nationals some serious potential in CF/RF (I’ve read Milledge in CF and Dukes in RF), it’s just that … potential. There are no sure things from the two and the Nationals should think long and hard before moving the one outfielder that has produced, even for an arms like Slowey or Pelfrey.