While the Nationals did not make picks that I anticpated, what can we learn from the choices the Nats made?
- Selecting Matt Whitney, a right-handed corner IF, and Garrett Guzman, a left-handed LF is bad news for Kory Casto, a left-handed corner IF & LF, going forward. While there is still a chance either of the guys (or both) are returned to their original organization, Casto seems to be on the outside looking in for any chance in 2008.
- As mentioned in the comments on the previous thread, Whitney seems to render Tony Batista unnecessary. This is a good thing in my opinion. If I have to carry a RH bench guy for 1B (and 3B in a pinch), gamble on the upside with Whitney. You could end up with better results (or you could end up with Tony Blanco).
- Guzman’s selection makes it more likely that Ryan Langerhans and Nook Logan are likely candidates for designation for assignment as both are out of options. As with Batista, I like the idea of gambling on the potential upside of Guzman instead of another season of Langerhans or Logan. The downside seems to be Ty Godwin, another Bowden Rule 5 selection.
- The guys the Nationals lost in the Triple-A phase of the draft (Marcos Cabral, Juan Cedeno, and Brett Campbell) are not anything to lose any sleep over. Cabral had a good season in Hagerstown but was realistically a utility-type guy. Cedeno was hardly here long enough to know anything about other than he’s left-handed. Campbell had seemed to have his cup of coffee and had seen his window in DC close.
NatsInNC | 06-Dec-07 at 1:39 pm | Permalink
Disquieting note from the ESPN winter meetings blog:
The Nationals have picked up two third baseman, signing Aaron Boone to a one-year deal and selecting Matt Whitney from Cleveland in the Rule 5 draft. Although Boone could fill a role as a backup at first and third, there are whispers that the Nationals are concerned about third baseman Ryan Zimmerman’s health in his recovery from wrist surgery.
Chris | 06-Dec-07 at 1:51 pm | Permalink
ah was jusat about to post that, beat me to it
obviously very concerning if thats the case
Brian Oliver | 06-Dec-07 at 2:03 pm | Permalink
from Barry … “I have checked with people who would know about this, and they say he’s improving/fine and that there’s no long-term concerns. In fact, they continue to say it’s a good thing it happened now rather than later.”
So, in other words, we still know nothing ;)
Marcus | 06-Dec-07 at 2:05 pm | Permalink
I think thats just speculation people trying to make sense out of what we’re doing. I think it has much more to do with the health of Nick Johnson. Heller from the Times said Zimmerman is healing nicely in his article about Zim today.
“Zimmerman underwent surgery on his left hand and wrist in November to repair a fracture in a small bone that occurred while he was taking batting practice a few days earlier, then needed a follow-up procedure to relieve a small hematoma that developed. No big deal. When you’re 23, you heal fast.
“The wrist feels good — I’ve noticed a big improvement this week in terms of strength,” Zimmerman said. “I’m getting therapy now to improve my range of motion, that kind of thing, but it’s nothing too intense.”"
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071206/SPORTS08/112060104/1005/SPORTS
Louis J. | 06-Dec-07 at 3:06 pm | Permalink
Aaron Boone and Matt Whitney??? Why Oh Why dear Jimbo!!!!! I hope Brian is right that this is a draft and trade situation packaged together with another player for ????? Jimbo would rather have Boone to play/backup at 1B/3B…not Whitney. Jimbo has me confused with this selecetion!
Adding Whitney, Guzman & Boone brings them to 39 players with only one spot open to add another catcher and Ray King and the LHP reliever from Japan and another starting pitcher. A few more players will have to be released to make room for all of the above additions.
What is Jimbo up to?
Louis J. | 06-Dec-07 at 3:47 pm | Permalink
Brian
What the h—-? The Nats signed Langerhans to a $500,000 contract AND IF HE DOESN’T MAKE THE TEAM, $300,000 IF SENT TO THE MINORS. Does this mean he’s on the 40-man roster? If so, they’re maxed out at 40 with no place for Ray King, the Japanese LHP reliever, another catcher and ????. Since they need the roster space, I’m confused on why they drafted Whitney & Guzman? Are they hoping to trade them? Or, Are they hoping that when they offer them back to their original teams during spring training, that said original teams will not want them back and arrange some trade/deal for them whereby the Nationals can send them to the minors? Who else will be released/traded form the 40-man roster to make room for others? Can you figure out what Jimbo is doing?
Brian Oliver | 06-Dec-07 at 3:54 pm | Permalink
Based upon the moves today, Boone, Whitney & Guzman, the Nationals are at 39/40. Langerhans was already on the 40-man roster.
I wouldn’t worry too much about the space on the 40-man today. There are still plenty of room around the edges of the current 39/40 to drop players. Be it Logan or O’Connor or Hanrahan or Langerhans. Plus there still is a chance of deals happening where guys like CGuzman or FLop could go. And that doesn’t even address any non-tender decisions made.
Steve | 06-Dec-07 at 5:38 pm | Permalink
Seems to me the signing of Boone may have something to do with the health of Nick Johnson. One might assume from this that his rehab is not going well. I hope I am wrong.
Marcus | 06-Dec-07 at 8:12 pm | Permalink
I know this is kind of late Brian but I don’t think anyone asked it when you had the Clippard news. Clippard still has prospect status so where does he rank in our top 10?
Shawn | 06-Dec-07 at 9:40 pm | Permalink
Whitney is strictly a first baseman now.
His lateral motion since breaking his leg has been limited and Cleveland dropped him 2 levels below his level to start last year to learn to play first base.
He should have been at AA Akron last year,but instead started at Low A Lake County to adjust to first base.
j | 07-Dec-07 at 8:54 am | Permalink
Brian
A little off topic, but when is the non-tender deadline? Thanks for the work you put into this site. Go Nats!
Mike | 07-Dec-07 at 9:22 am | Permalink
I believe the addition of Whitney could preclude a deal which would involve Marrero & one of the kid pitchers (Willems, Smoker or even Detwiler) in a package for a top starting pitcher.
Brian Oliver | 07-Dec-07 at 10:11 am | Permalink
j- Dec. 12, 2007 is the last date to tender contracts
Mike - You cannot trade prospects until one year after they’ve signed their contract (though they can go as players to be named later as long as they are named within six months). Detwiler signed in early July and Smoker in mid-August, so they’d likely have to wait until early January for Detwiler and February for Smoker. That being said, I don’t envision any of those guys being traded in the near term. If they move on a top starting pitcher, it will be one that can be acquired for a player in the majors now.
phil dunn | 07-Dec-07 at 10:23 am | Permalink
This once again illustrates how unreliable it is for a major league team to totally rely on unproven prospects Last year, Cory Casto and Zeke Zincola were the last best hope for the Nats. 12 months later, they are dog doo doo. How many times did we hear about Larry Broadway? or Hinckely? or Desmond?
Thomas | 07-Dec-07 at 2:07 pm | Permalink
I think it is more a reflection of how unreliable the Nationals minor league system was before the influx of talent from the 2006 draft and onwards. Casto, Broadway, Hinckley, Desmond are fringe talents. I do not lump Zincola into that category because, although he performed very poorly last year, his stuff is still very good. His control was poor from all accounts though, leading to his poor season.
You should also note that none of those players were in the top 100 prospects list with the exception of Hinckley I believe. Hinckley was very highly thought of until he had some serious arm injuries that he has not been able to put behind him.
We cannot really rely on Free Agency entirely also. It is good for picking up one or two impact players but we cannot build our core around them. They are basically mercenaries we need to pay to get us over the top. If we get two impact players, e.g. Torii Hunter (~$20 Million) and an ace pitcher (~$20 Million), let’s assume there was one available or that we could some how trade for one, that would add $40 Million to the payroll.
That team would be an 80-88 win team if everyone performed well and if there were no injuries. That is a big if to risk at least $40 Million on. We would be an inconsistent team, mediocre or worse one year and playoff contenders the next. As you know it is much harder to get into the playoffs in baseball than in any other sport. And the difference in talent between an 85 win team and a 90 win team is considerable. There are some teams that have been consistent 80-85 win teams and not had a sniff at the playoffs. And for those that do make it they usually get swept out.
Another consideration would be the financial aspect of it. The payroll would be at $90 Million with those 2 acquisitions. A reasonable payroll considering DC’s market size and our current revenue. But what will happen 2 years from now, when we need to lock up Ryan Zimmerman’s arbitration and free agency years. Zimm would at least need 5-6 years at $13+ millions. That is 100+ Millions right there. We probably could not sustain anything higher than that. We would be severly limited in our flexibility onwards with out accomplishing much. Unless we have a chance at winning the whole thing, I do not believe we can afford to limit ourselves.
It is true everything could all blow up in our faces. All our prospects get injured or do not pan out, but that is also true of free agents. They sometimes tank (Gary Mathews Jr/ Barry Zito) or get injured like all players.
The only to compete year in and year out is to have quality depth so that if one option fails we can move onto another option. And the only way to do that is through the accumulation of prospects. And when one of those options pan out we need to have to flexibility to keep them around if we see fit.
hartmanbirge | 07-Dec-07 at 2:58 pm | Permalink
Zinicola is not a finalized product…. WAY too early to write him off. Casto I’m afraid is through…. and I really liked him… too bad.
Will | 07-Dec-07 at 4:42 pm | Permalink
Phil,
Zinicola has only been pitching full-time for 2 years, this past season being the second. He was not a full time pitcher until his final season in college. Way to early to write him off. He is still a raw talent, with decent stuff and the potential to contribute on the MLB level at some point. Be sure to check out my profile on Zinicola: http://senatorsfansunite.blogspot.com/2007/11/player-profile-zech-zinicola.html.
Casto, who turns 26 tomorrow, might have seen his chance pass. His 2007 numbers were horrible. I like Casto but I think with the recent pick up of Whitney and Guzman, Casto might be on the way out (possible trade?). I really don’t know how much value he has left.
EdDC | 07-Dec-07 at 9:01 pm | Permalink
What I like best is the ability of the Nats to improve this team significantly in the off-season, with almost no impact on team payroll. We should expect a rebate soon on all season ticket price increases from last season, I’ll bet for sure.
Michael | 09-Dec-07 at 6:04 pm | Permalink
Can’t really say I’m too disappointed with this Rule V draft, but I’m also surprised at the lack of pitching. If they don’t sign an innings-eater (and Jimbo has said something to the effect of “We’re going to let the kids develop,” I think) our pitching situation is not going to be all that improved from last year.
Even supposing a monster year from our OFs (I’m skeptical of a truly dramatic improvement only one year in), our SS defense still sucks, while our non-OF offense will remain virtually unchanged (unless Zim finally breaks out offensively) or decline (assuming that Young and Belliard were kinda fluky), it seems to me that next year isn’t going to be a huge improvement.
That said, the move from RFK to Nationals Field (using home/road splits) should put us a little closer to 75 wins or so, so assuming we don’t regress too badly in some areas, we might progress towards .500 ball. Add in that relative to us, the Mets and the Braves haven’t improved much (if at all), while the Marlins have probably lost a huge chunk of offense in Cabrera (literally and figuratively), we might look at being in contention for a few parts of the season if we catch some good breaks.
Mark | 09-Dec-07 at 9:25 pm | Permalink
I agree with all of the above. Considering their paltry payroll, it wouldn’t hurt the Nationals to add an innings eater/fan favorite like Livan Hernandez.
So what if he’s going to be overpriced, thy’re going to be moving into a new stadium with no effort to have any veteran presence on the pitching staff. They can’t expect such a miraculous effort from the bullpen again in 2008.
Marcus | 09-Dec-07 at 11:22 pm | Permalink
I think its a great idea to bring Livan back but his Type A FA status and huge contract would be huge negatives for a team on a youth movement. I think Jason Jennings would be the best pick up
Louis J. | 10-Dec-07 at 8:25 am | Permalink
Marcus
According to the Elias rankings (which is used by MLB to determine Free Agent type) Livo is only a Type B Free Agent which means D-Backs would get a Comp Pick after the 1st Round of the 2008 draft but the Nats would not lose any draft choices. If the Nats can pay Young $10M-2yrs, they can afford to add Livo for a similiar or slightly more contract not to exceed 2 yrs. I also agree that Jason Jennings is a good gamble but, because of his tendon injury, what do you offer him - a non-guraanteed minor league contract so that he can prove that he’s recovered from his injury like they did with Young OR a major league contract where he would replace someone else on the 40-man roster and place him on the 15 day DL until he’s ready to pitch? I believe that the Nats are watching to see what other teams are offering to determine what they might do.
Marcus | 10-Dec-07 at 12:14 pm | Permalink
Ooops, Thanks for the correction. Livo/Jennings would be great additions I can’t see them adding both though with them still trying to have room for the younger pitchers.
Louis J. | 10-Dec-07 at 4:06 pm | Permalink
Marcus
Sure they could add both without breaking the bank or adversing affecting the young pitchers coming up!! Livo (the player who would cost them $10-$13M for 2 yrs) gives them stablity for 2 yrs while Dewiler, etc develop and Jennings, if healthy, gives you at least the 2008 year or longer if the Nats sign him to a longer contract like they did with Belliard & Young. Remember, the Nats have a projected rotation of the injury prone Patterson, often injued Hill, a very young & inexperienced Chico, a converted reliever in Bergmann, Redding, inconsistent Hanrahan and a lot of inexperienced kids. Livo & a healthy Jennings, two innings eaters, would fit into the top of the rotation very nicely. If they can do it, do it!!!
Louis J. | 10-Dec-07 at 4:44 pm | Permalink
Reports out that the Nationals have reached a one year deal with paul Lo Duca as the everyday catcher. Another 2008 offensive piece has been added to the lineup.
Louis J. | 10-Dec-07 at 5:24 pm | Permalink
Brian
Any update on Brandon Claussen? Has he recovered from his shoulder injury? Has he retired? Could he still pitch? Could the Nats used him as LH reliever?
Brian Oliver | 11-Dec-07 at 9:42 am | Permalink
Louis - I’ll see what I can find out
Louis J. | 11-Dec-07 at 3:56 pm | Permalink
Brian
Thanks, he could give Nats some experience….