Comments on: Baseball America Top Prospects 21-30

By: Jeff

Jeff — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 15:09:51 +0000

Anybody suprised to see Smiley Gonzalez all the way down at #17 below Stephen King and Ian Desmond?

By: 15 more days

15 more days — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 15:14:19 +0000

Hinckley is off completely, and Adrian Alaniz didn’t make the top 30. I guess our organization really is improving.

By: Chris

Chris — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 17:53:05 +0000

Keith Law put up his top 100 and top 5 by organiztion today too

espn.com/mlb

By: Sam

Sam — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 18:13:51 +0000

Well I never!

By: Brian Oliver

Brian Oliver — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 18:37:55 +0000

Jeff - Smiley needs time. He is still a long ways from being on the radar. While Desmond isn't as good as Frank Robinson and the Nationals led many to believe in 2005, he is farther along developmentally than Gonzalez. And while King needs to work on cutting down on the strikeouts, he's a also further along than Gonzalez. If you think about it, Gonzalez is really entering what could realistically be considered his senior year of high school in 2008 so there is still time. I believe Smiley's signing was as much symbolic in returning to the DR as it was for his perceived talent.

15MD - Alaniz is still on the old side for me. But your point stands

Sam - Sorry, I know Marco's exclusion cut deep

By: Hendo

Hendo — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 23:58:05 +0000

Once Capitol Punishment gets a hold of Alaniz, maybe they'll lay off of Bacsik for awhile...

By: Dick

Dick — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 00:16:43 +0000

One thing about BA prospects, the less you have played, the better they like you. That is true for all teams (and I hold my already dog-eared 2008 copy in my hand as I write this). Once you gets some stats, status tends to go down. That is a VERY good thing about Marrero, he has stayed at the top with a season under his belt. In many respects, it is interesting that Balester is still at #3. I’ve never seen him pitch, but his stats aren’t great and folks like Sickles really don’t like him.

There is really no way to know yet how good Detwiler, McGeary and Smoker will be (doubt if they have thrown 100 pro pitches between them). Zimmermann is ranked 7 behind the others who are ranked 2, 5 and 6. Yet, Zim was VERY impressive at Vermont (love all those Ks). Willems is #9, last year #3, and that is after posting a 1.84 ERA (yea, I know that comes with an asterisk as you can see in the write-up). Willems is a sinkerballer and relies on his defense. Alaniz is CLEARLY a top 30 prospect! I would be shocked if he doesn’t at least get a cup of coffee; something many of the prospects never get.

Point is, BA is probably better for the entertainment value than anything else. Not that they don’t know what they are talking about, they just like press clippings and imagination better than true stats and what they see with their own eyes.

By: Steve

Steve — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 03:50:12 +0000

Watch out for Boomer Whiting this year.

By: Wooden U. Lykteneau

Wooden U. Lykteneau — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 15:41:49 +0000

I would have to agree with Dick regarding BA and Sickels — the former seems to value youth and potential, the latter seems to value pure statistical analysis. This year, I went with a book by Deric McKaney that’s supposed to be a blend of the two and it seems to be similar to Brian’s list so far.

Personally, I’m becoming very suspicious of folks that make judgments sight unseen. I’m no scout or a sabermetrician, but I could tell after seeing John Lannan pitch just twice last year to be convinced that he had the goods to get to the majors last season. He may not have racked up big strikeout numbers, but once he started dropping that hammer for strikes in a given game, the batters became much less aggressive, and that’s what led to the low WHIP.