Nationals Farm Authority

Rather than staggering the final two prospects on each side, where everyone will already know who #1 is, I’ll give them to you both at the same time. 

The top two hitting prospects have something in common. Both Chris Marrero and Michael Burgess were considered among the top high schoolers entering their respective draft years (2006 for Marrero and 2007 for Burgess). And both struggled in their senior seasons as teams pitched around them. These struggles led to both guys sliding down the draft (Burgess more than Marrero). Marrero was drafted as a third baseman but his future appears to be as a first baseman (after a brief tryout in left field). While his defense is still a work in progress, his hitting is what has put him at #1 on this list. The 19-year old right-hander shows tremendous power to all fields. In the times I saw him play, he rarely did not make hard contact. He has worked on his plate discipline though it’s unlikely he’ll ever be a batting champion. The good thing for the Nationals is they don’t need the high average, they should be ecstatic if Marrero can continue on this development plane. He has the legitmate chance to be a middle of the order 30+ home run bat. He seems ticketed for Harrisburg in 2008.  Burgess fell all the way to the middle of the supplemental first round (a selection for losing Jose Guillen). And if everything works out, Burgess will eventually replace Guillen as the right fielder for the Nationals. Much like Marrero, Burgess’ calling card is his gap to gap power. He blisters the ball to all fields and has the chance to develop into a 30+ home run bat as well. The area where Burgess needs to focus is maintaining a consistent approach at the plate and not getting his swing out of sorts. He is likely to pile up strikeouts but if he can refine his plate discipline to increase his walk total, it should offset the Ks. Expect the Nationals to treat Burgess the same way they did Marrero in 2007. Burgess should begin in Hagerstown and if he produces, earn a promotion to Potomac. (Note: I would place Lastings Milledge as the #1 overall if he was a rookie, edging out Marrero. I like the combination of power and speed Milledge brings to the table and the fact he can play center field makes him slightly more valuable. As for Elijah Dukes, it’s a toss-up between him and Burgess at #2. If it were not for the off the field baggage, Dukes would be the easy choice but considering them, I’d rate Dukes only slightly over Burgess).

The top two pitching prospects are both guys the Nationals grabbed in the 2007 draft. The easy #1 is Ross Detwiler, a left-handed starting pitcher who has already made his major league debut (the first overall from the 2007 class to do so). He has a mid-90s fastball and hard curve are both above average pitches already. He is also working on a changeup which looks like it could be a solid pitch. There were comments in the last thread about whether the Nationals have a true #1 starting pitching prospect. My conservative answer is no, but if there is anyone who coulddevelop into an ace, it would be Detwiler. The knock against him is Detwiler’s wiry frame. If he can show that he can maintain his endurance over the long major league season, he has every opportunity to turn himself into an ace. I’m going to be more cautious and project him more a #2 starter. There have been discussions about putting Detwiler into the Nationals bullpen in 2008 and easing him into the rotation. I understand the argument of those that believe he needs regular turns in the rotation in the minor leagues. But I’d be happy to see the Nationals keep him in the majors to work with pitching coach Randy St. Caire … with one major caveat. He would need to get regular use. He should not be kept as an emergency starter/mop-up guy nor should he be kept as a LOOGY (left-handed one out guy). If they are going to keep him on the major league roster, they need to give him a couple of appearances every week for at least two innings. Let him get exposure to major league hitters while building stamina. But at the end of spring training, my belief is the Nationals will send Detwiler to Harrisburg. Letting Alfonso Soriano go for draft picks will not look to bad if both of their 2007 draft picks develop. With Josh Smoker and the #2 guy on my list Jordan Zimmermann, the Nationals could potentially have a left and right handed #2 starting pitchers on the horizon. Zimmermann was drafted with the #67 pick of the 2007 draft. The righty pitched in Division III where bad weather and a broken jaw led to teams missing out on a potential steal in the draft. He has an above average low-90s fastball and above average curve. He’ll need to work on his changeup in order to improve his chances as a starter moving forward. I could see Zimmermann starting 2008 off in Potomac (based on a numbers game as much as anything else) but I do not doubt he’ll finish the season in Harrisburg.

We’re at the point in this list where most folks are going to be able to easily identify who’s left. At number three is bat that most folks would expect here and an arm that might surprise. 

Justin Maxwell was the second player drafted by the Jim Bowden regime (Ryan Zimmerman being the first). Maxwell was selected out of the University of Maryland in the fourth round of the 2005 draft and made his major league debut at the end of the 2007 season. Maxwell has an intriguing mix of power and speed and more importantly for the Nationals, is a center fielder. The name most oftened offered up as a comparable is Mike Cameron.  Of all of the players I have seen in person on this list, Maxwell is the one who “looks like a baseball player.” He is a big guy but not bulky. His movements are fluid. A myriad of injuries in college led to Maxwell sliding down most team’s draft boards. He hasn’t completely escaped the injury bug in his professional career, missing time for various minor injuries. The presence of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes mean Maxwell will most likely start his 2007 season in Double-A Harrisburg, where he’ll face stronger pitching than he would in Triple-A. The Nationals abundance of right-handed outfielders are going to make it a challenge for Maxwell to get a chance in 2008.

Josh Smoker was selected with the first pick of the supplemental round of the 2007 draft (part of the compensation for losing Alfonso Soriano). The 19-year old lefthander has a low-90s fastball, an above average curve with bite, and a developing changeup. He has a very promising future and if he can develop along the lines the Nationals expect, Smoker has the ability to develop into a frontline starter, maybe not a #1 but definitely a strong #2. I believe the Nationals are going to challenge Smoker with an assignment in Hagerstown to start 2008.

Jake Smolinski was selected with the Nationals own pick in the second round of the 2007 draft. The 19-year old right-hander was drafted as a shortstop but the Nationals moved him almost immediately to left field. He showed above average gap power in his limited professional exposure. A foul ball off of his foot ended his 2007 earlier than the Nats would have hoped. Smolinski projects out well as a hitter and his arm is above average for left field. The Nationals may choose to challenge Smolinski with an assignment to Low-A Hagerstown but I’d guess he’ll get time in extended spring training with a start in Vermont in June.  (Note: Someone asked for me to rank Jesus Flores, Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes in this list for perspective. I’d put Flores here, slightly ahead of Smolinski).

Collin Balester is the highest rated member of this list that was drafted by the Expos. Selected out of a California high school in the 4th round of the 2004 draft, the righty has worked his way up through the organization from from 2004 to 2007, from the GCL to Columbus. He possesses a low-90s fastball and an above average curveball. But Balester really relies on his defense as he pitches to contact. He projects out as a #2 starter though I see him more as a middle of the rotation innings eater. He’s in spring training with the major leaguers, competing for a spot in the starting rotation. The chances of him making it are long, save a stellar performance. Expect him to return to Columbus in 2008 and sit towards the top of the names called when another starter is needed.

link 

Five-Star Prospects

1 Chris Marrero, 1B

2 Ross Detwiler, LHP

Four-Star Prospects

3 Michael Burgess, OF

Three-Star Prospects

4 Josh Smoker, LHP

5 Justin Maxwell, OF

6 Jack McGeary, LHP

7 Collin Balester, RHP

Two-Star Prospects

8 Jordan Zimmermann, RHP

9 Jake Smolinski, OF

10 Colton Willems, RHP

11 Adam Carr, RHP

Just Missing: Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS; John Lannan, LHP; Shairon Martis, RHP

The details at BP are subscription protected. A kind reader forwarded me this additonal information.

The Big Picture: Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies Under 25 (As Of Opening Day 2008)

1. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
2. Lastings Milledge, OF
3. Chris Marrero, 1B
4. Ross Detwiler, LHP
5. Elijah Dukes, OF
6. Michael Burgess, OF
7. Josh Smoker, LHP
8. Justin Maxwell, OF
9. Matt Chico, LHP
10. Jack McGeary, LHP

The fifth ranked bat is Mike Daniel, a 2005 7th round draft pick out of North Carolina. The lefthanded Daniel was overshadowed in 2007 by Chris Marrero and Justin Maxwell but had an above average season splitting time between Hagerstown and Potomac (294/362/458). He has average power but is more of a gap hitter. While his speed may be classified as slightly above average, he was among the smarter baserunners I saw in Potomac in 2007. He knew when to take the extra base. Defensively, he can play all three positions in the outfield though his arm might make a spot in center field tough. Daniel is personal favorite of mine. Reports have his ceiling as a #4 outfielder but I believe he has the chance to turn himself into a starter if things break right. He’ll be in Harrisburg in 2008 but definitely has the chances of being a breakout candidate.

Colton Willems was the second first rounder the Nationals grabbed in the 2006 draft (Marrero was the first). The righthander arguably has the highest ceiling of all of the Nationals arms but with that high reward comes high risk. He possesses a fastball that has reached the mid-90s though recently it’s been clocked in the 87-92 range. He also has an above average curve and slider (though according to report the slider has been shelved). His changeup is a work in progress. What is impressive about Willems is how he composes himself on the mound. Reports have him rarely being rattled and he pitches well when the heat is on (193/338/263 with runners in scoring position). What Willems needs most now is experience. He should front the rotation in Hagerstown in 2008.

Baseball America’s top 100 list is out (via RSS reader).

27 Chris Marrero

51 Ross Detwiler

86 Collin Balester

Not bad. But still indicative that there is room to grow.

UPDATE:

Links

• 1-20
• 21-40
• 41-60
• 61-80
• 81-100

UPDATE 2:

Those that missed 

In the first step of our Top 100 process, each voter compiles a personal top 150, and then we tabulate them and let the arguments begin. They couldn’t crack the official Top 100, but 92 additional prospects received votes in the top 150s. Here they are in alphabetical order, with the number of votes they received and their highest ranking on any list.

This posting is really niche and might not be of much interest to most, so be forewarned.

The news about Dan Killian leaving Kentucky for a community college got me wondering the status of the other unsigned Nationals picks. With the help of Baseball America (BBA), PG Crosschecker (PGCC), and Google, I did some digging on every unsigned Nationals player since their arrival in Washington in 2005.

2005 

Six of the players listed were subsequently drafted and signed by a major league team (including Brett McMillan who was re-drafted and then signed by the Nationals in 2006).

Of the unsigned players, there are five guys who we might hear mentioned as the 2008 draft rolls around.

• Steven Hensley was ranked as the 73rd best junior and 83rd best collegian entering the 2008 season
• PGCC has Marcus Jones ranked as their #90 junior (and #101 overall collegian) entering the 2008 season
• Scott Barnes is BBA’s #44 junior, PGCC’s #95 junior, and PGCC’s #106 overall collegian
• PGCC has Anthony Shawler as the #117 collegian
• PGCC has William Cherry the #178 collegian according to PGCC

I was unable to find where Patrick Barnes or Anthony Williams are currently playing.

2006

Javier Martinez and Jonathan Pannell were both subsequently drafted and signed by the San Francisco Giants in the 2007 draft.

I ran into some more difficulty in finding all of the unsigned players here. SS Burt Reynolds played the 2007 season at Okaloosa-Walton CC but I did not see his name on the 2008 roster. OF D’Vontrey Richardson played for Florida State’s baseball team in 2007 but appears to have shifted to his football career with the Seminoles where he is reportedly competing for the backup QB spot for the 2008 season (another football connection is 34th round selection Taylor Kinzer who is playing football at Purdue).  Local guy, RHP Nick Pearce pitched for the Terps in 2007 but is not listed on their 2008 roster. And OF Kyle Page (son of former Nationals hitting coach Mitchell Page) has not appeared on a roster since 2006 at Broward Community College. Also, LHP Michael Robbins is nowhere to be found.

As this was the year the Nationals made a conscious effort to target the high ceiling players, there are far more players who are likely to be top targets in the 2009 draft, though there is one player whose name we could hear called this year.  Jarred Holloway was ranked as the 21st best junior college prospect entering the 2008 season. Now the names for 2009 …

BBA

• South Carolina RHP Sam Brown - #22 sophomore
• Baylor 1B Dustin Dickerson - #32 sophomore
• Seton Hall RHP Sean Black - #38 sophomore
• Georgia Tech RHP Zach Von Tersch - #48 sophomore
• South Carolina RHP Sam Dyson - #44 freshman (he was redshirted in 2007)

PGCC

• Von Tersch - #18 sophomore 
• Black - #24 sophomore
• Dickerson - #27 sophomore
• Cal State Fullerton OF Khris Davis - #44 sophomore
• Central Florida RHP Austin Hudson - #69 sophomore
• Dyson - #35 freshman

2007

The only name that I haven’t been able to confirm is Michael Martinez. I saw a reference to him as part of the Florida State recruiting class but do not see him listed on their 2008 roster.

The Nationals drafted several collegians who are likely to be among the names called early in the 2008 draft. Among them are …

• Kentucky 1B Sawyer Carroll wgo PGCC has as their 14th best senior and #188 overall collegian
• Florida Atlantic 3B/OF Dan Cook who BBA has as their 44th best senior. PGCC has him as their 19th best senior and #216 overall collegian
• Georgia Tech LHP Dave Duncan was drafted as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2007 and is now PGCC #54 college junior and #57 overall collegian
• Louisville RHP Zack Pitts is BBA’s #10 senior and PGCC’s #9 senior (#147 overall collegian)
• Texas RHP Kenn Kasparek is PGCC’s #91 junior (#102 overall collegian)

From the Juco/CC ranks …

• Chipola (AZ) CC OF Chris Berroa is the #104 ranked JuCo prospect according to PGCC
• Lake City (FL) CC OF Kelvin Clark is #85
• St Petersburg (FL) JuCo RHP Jeff Walters is #10
• and CA Dan Killian is likely to join the list in the top 25 once the list is re-evaluated

Looking forward to the 2010 draft, here are the names to watch …

• Nebraska OF Dave Stewart - BBA #47 freshman & PGCC #61 freshman
• Miami (FL) OF/LHP Iden Nazario - PGCC #85 freshman

All of the information above is apropos to nothing with regards to the Nationals. I see it more of an exercise of tracking how well the Nationals scouting is beyond the players they sign.

Center fielder Stephen Englund was a 2006 second selection out a high school in Washington. Englund is arguably the most athletic bat the Nationals have in their system. The 19-year old Englund possesses above average speed and an above average arm in center. He’s also still a work in progress who needs to fine tune his approach at the plate. In 24 games in the GCL, Englund batted 253/454/291 with 13/17 stolen bases. Englund seems likely to begin 2008 in short-season Vermont.

The Nationals went well above the slot recommendation to sign the left-handed Jack McGeary out of the sixth round of last year’s draft.  They offered him a deal which allowed him to pursue his education at Stanford full-time while pitching for the Nationals over the summer. The 19-year old has arguably the best curveball in the organization though he only logged two innings of work as a professional. He’s not going to be a flame-thrower but McGeary has drawn comparisons to Tom Glavine and Mark Buehrle as a lefthander who knows how to pitch. The biggest challenge he will face is logging enough time on the mound over the next couple of years. It would not surprise me to see McGeary focus more energy on his development as a pitcher, even as early as 2009. McGeary will likely return to Vermont in 2008.

Aaron Fitt has a posting over at his college blog about Dan Killian. Killian left the University of Kentucky and has enrolled at Kellogg (MI) Community College, meaning he’ll be 2008 draft eligible.

That name should be somewhat familiar to folks who frequent NFA. In 2007, the Nationals drafted CA Dan Killian in the 32nd round out of Chippewa Hills HS, in Remus, Michigan.  Killian turned down the Nationals and chose to enroll at Kentucky.

The Nationals have no ability to re-approach Killian but he’s a name worth keeping an eye on for the 2008 draft. Here is his PGCrosschecker scouting report from 2007

Killian missed the majority of this season while recuperating from an operation for a slight meniscus tear in his knee. But he was back swinging the bat in mid-May, though not catching. Killian and his brother are similar players, but Dan may be a little stronger. He has very good catching skills with quick, sure hands, along with shifting and blocking ability. His arm is well above-average arm, capable of shutting down a running game. He also has good athletic quickness, with a 7.0 time in the 60, and is very projectable physically. His greatest room for improvement is with the bat. He has quick hands and a line-drive approach, but needs to fill out his body to add strength.

The #7 spots are occupied by guys that are more gut feels by me.

Steve Souza was a 2007 third round draft pick out of a high school in Washington. Souza was drafted as a strong-armed right-handed third baseman but began his professional career in left field. His value is certainly higher if he can remain as a third baseman as he progresses. Over 44 games in the GCL, the 18-year old Souza hit only 194/299/340 but flashed promising power with 13 of his 28 hits for extra bases. He certainly struck out too much (46 in 144AB) but scouts think he has the ability to develop above average power as he fills out. He’s certainly a high risk/high reward type of guy. Expect a start in Vermont in 2008 and watch to see if he can improve his approach at the plate.

Tyler Clippard was once considered the New York Yankees most promising arm (until Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy showed up). The 23-year old righthander has put some eye-popping strikeout numbers in his minor league career (640K over 609 1/3IP) but his first shot at the majors were brief and disappointing (18K and 17BB over 27IP). None of his pitches classify as anything more than average but he does bring three pitches to the mound (87-91 fastball, curve and change). His ceiling is realistically a #4 or 5 starter but I believe his move to the National League and opportunity to work with Randy St. Claire will pay dividends for the Nationals. He seems like he’ll be a victim of the numbers game in the battle for the starting rotation. With options remaining, I’d expect him to start 2008 in Columbus.