After spending the weekend in Las Vegas for the Super Bowl (thank you Giants for winning that moneyline), I came home to find “The Baseball Prospect Book 2008,” John Sickels annual review of around 1,000 prospects in minor league baseball.
I have not had time to pore through it to the degree I want, but this is the third year in a row that I’ve purchased it and for those who frequent this site, well worth the $24 investment (buy it here).
Here is some quick background on how Sickels approaches his prospect review/rating:
GRADES AND WHAT THEY MEAN
- Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.
- Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
- Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
- A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
- Also note that there is diversity within each category. I’m a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
- Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
In 2007, Sickels provided reviews of 34 Nationals prospects and in 2008 37.
| Player | 2007 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|
| Alaniz, Adrian | % | C+ |
| Balester, Collin | C | B- |
| Bernadina, Roger | C | C |
| Broadway, Larry | C | off |
| Brown, Dee | C | off |
| Burgess, Michael | % | B+ |
| Campbell, Brett | C | off |
| Carr, Adam | C | B- |
| Casto, Kory | B | C |
| Chico, Matt | C+ | ! |
| Clippard, Tyler1 | (B) | C+ |
| Corcoran, Roy | C | off |
| Daniel, Michael | off | C |
| Davis, Leonard | off | C |
| Desmond, Ian | C | C+ |
| Detwiler, Ross | % | B+ |
| Diaz, Frank | C | off |
| Dukes, Elijah2 | (B) | ! |
| Englund, Stephen | C | off |
| Estrada, Marco | C | off |
| Everts, Clint | C | off |
| Flores, Jesus | C | ! |
| Fruto, Emiliano | C+ | off |
| Gibson, Glenn3 | C+ | (C+) |
| Gonzalez, Esmailyn | off | C |
| Guzman, Garrett | off | C |
| Hanrahan, Joel4 | (C) | ! |
| Hill, Shawn | C+ | ! |
| Ivany, Devin | C | off |
| Jimenez, Luis5 | off | C |
| King, Stephen | C+ | C |
| Lannan, John | C | B- |
| Lefave, Andrew | off | C |
| Lowrance, Marvin | off | C |
| Marrero, Chris | B+ | B+ |
| Martis, Shairon | B | C+ |
| Maxwell, Justin | C | B |
| McCoy, Patrick | % | C |
| McGeary, Jack | % | C+ |
| Meyers, Brad | % | C |
| Mock, Garrett | C+ | off |
| Morales, Alexis | C | C |
| Norris, Derek | % | C |
| Novoa, Yunior | C | C |
| Nunez, Jhonny | C+ | C+ |
| Pena, Hassan | off | C |
| Plasencia, Francisco | C | off |
| Smoker, Josh | % | B- |
| Smolinski, Jake | % | C+ |
| Souza, Steve | % | C |
| Spradlin, Jack | C | off |
| VanAllen, Cory | C | C |
| Watson, Brandon6 | off | C |
| Whitesell, Josh | C | C |
| Whitney, Matt | off | C+ |
| Willems, Colton | B | C+ |
| Zimmermann, Jordan | % | B |
| Zinicola, Zech | B | off |
- 1 - 2007 grade with New York Yankees
- 2 - 2007 grade with Tampa Rays
- 3 - 2008 grade listed under Tampa Rays
- 4 - 2007 grade with Los Angeles Dodgers
- 5 - 2008 grade listed under Baltimore Orioles
- 6 - no longer with Nationals
- % - drafted in 2007
- ! - no longer qualified as a rookie
Summarizing it …
| Year | Total Ranked | A | A- | B+ | B | B- | C+ | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 34 # | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 22 |
| 2008 | 37 % | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
- # = Does not include Clippard, Dukes, or Hanrahan
- % = Includes Jimenez; does not include Watson or Gibson
To put things further into perspective, from my quick scan/count, in 2008 Sickels ranked only seven ‘A’ prospects (note … three with Tampa); ten ‘A-’ prospects; and fifty-four ‘B+’ prospects.
It seems the Nationals are on the right path but there is certainly room for growth.
Chris | 08-Feb-08 at 9:59 am | Permalink
So basically Detweiler, Marrero adn Burgess are somewhere between 18 and 72? With Zimmerman and Maxwell behind them. That sounds very fair, although Willems and McGeary seem a little low with C+. I think both those guys, although far away, have top line starter potential. Fair analysis tho
Pilchard | 08-Feb-08 at 11:33 am | Permalink
Can you identify the 7 “A” prospects? I’m sure of two of the Rays prospects (David Price and Evan Longoria). Would like to know who the other 5 are.
Brian Oliver | 08-Feb-08 at 11:37 am | Permalink
I miscounted, there are actually 8 A prospects. They are Clay Buchholz (BOS), Jay Bruce (CIN), Clayton Kershaw (LAD), Joba Chamberlain (NYY), Colby Rasmus (STL), Evan Longoria (TB), Jacob McGee (TB), and David Price (TB).
Gary | 08-Feb-08 at 8:01 pm | Permalink
A lot to try to figure out…I’ll take your word for it.
Wooden U. Lykteneau | 09-Feb-08 at 12:03 pm | Permalink
As mentioned previously, here are Deric McKamey’s grades on Nats prospects. His grading system is two-fold: Potential from 1-10, Probability from A to E. A 10 is a HOF player, a 9 is an elite player, an 8 a solid regular player, 7 an average regular, 6 a platoon player, 5 a bench player. The letter grades go down in blocks of 20%, so an A has a 90% chance, B a 70%, C a 50%, D a 30%, E a 10%.
As you might imagine, the younger the player, the lower the letter grade tends to be and vice-versa. Bruce, for example is a 10C, while Buchholz is a 9A, with the former 21 and the latter is 23.
Without further ado…
1.) Detwiler, 9C
2.) Marrero, 9C
3.) Burgess, 9E
4.) Smoker, 9E
5.) J. Zimmerman, 9D
6.) Balester, 8C
7.) McGeary, 8E
8.) Maxwell, 8C
9.) E. Gonzalez, 8D
10.) Willems, 9E
11.) Clippard, 7B
12.) Lannan, 7C
13.) Carr, 7C
14.) Smolinski, 8E
15.) Whitney, 7D
Others, not ranked:
BATTERS
Baez, 7D
Bernadina, 7D
Casto, 6A
Daniel, 6C
Desmond, 7D
Englund, 8E
Ivany, 5B
King, 7D
Whitesell, 7D
PITCHERS
Alaniz, 6C
Estrada, 7D
Martis, 7D
Mock, 6C
Morales, 7D
Munoz, 6B
Zinicola, 8D
Like Brian, I would agree that things appear to be improving, but the fact that McKamey rated only one player with an “A” probability and three with “B” probability is telling. Having read through his assessments, many jive with what I saw the past two summers in Woodbridge. I’d recommend the book, even if it’s a bit on the thin side, because it gives a snapshot assessment, projections and both traditional and new stats for each of the players.
Mark | 09-Feb-08 at 1:50 pm | Permalink
Surprised to see Adam Carr as a B-, I always thought he was underappreciated.
Dick | 09-Feb-08 at 6:12 pm | Permalink
It’s ZimmermanNNNNNNNNNNNNNN! Zimmerman plays third base, Zimmermann pitches! Sorry Brian, can’t help it. I know you know better.
Wooden U. Lykteneau | 10-Feb-08 at 7:47 am | Permalink
Actually, Brian’s spelling was correct and mine was wrong, but thanks for living up to your nom de guerre.
hoagie | 11-Feb-08 at 3:01 pm | Permalink
Anyone else surprised Mock and Zinicola fell off the rankings?
VladiHondo | 13-Feb-08 at 1:57 pm | Permalink
Great synopsis!
FYI in 2k6, Sickels gave the Nats 1 A (Zimmerman), 2 B- (Bray & Casto), 10 C+ and 16 C. This put us, total talent-wise, next to last to the NY Mets, the only other team with less than 4 A and B players (they had 2 - Milledge & Pelfrey).