I counted up the various grades from John Sickels prospect guide and they break out as follows:
| Team | Total | A | A- | B+ | B | B- | C+ | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 37 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| Average | 36 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| Median | 36 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
| Arizona | 37 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| Atlanta | 36 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 11 |
| Baltimore1 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 20 |
| Boston | 38 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| Chicago (NL) | 37 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| Chicago (AL) | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| Cincinnati | 39 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 12 |
| Cleveland | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 |
| Colorado | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| Detroit2 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| Florida | 34 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| Houston | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| Kansas City | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| Los Angeles (AL) | 36 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| Los Angeles (NL) | 37 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| Milwaukee | 34 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| Minnesota3 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19 |
| New York (NL)3 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 25 |
| New York (AL) | 42 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 16 |
| Oakland | 37 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
| Philadelphia | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 21 |
| Pittsburgh | 33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 23 |
| St. Louis | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| San Diego | 36 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 10 |
| San Francisco | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 18 |
| Seattle1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| Tampa | 36 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
| Texas2 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
| Toronto | 34 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 24 |
- 1 - Includes realigning the players from the Baltimore trade of Erik Bedard to Seattle for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler. Tillman (B+), Mickolio (C), and Butler (B-) are counted with the Orioles
- 2 - Includes realigning the players from the Detroit trade of Michael Hernandez to Texas for Armando Galarraga. Hernandez (C) is counted with Texas and Galarraga (C+) is counted with Detroit
- 3 - Includes realigning the players from the Minnesota trade of Johan Santana to New York (NL) for Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, and Phil Humber. Guerra (B+), Gomez (B), Mulvey (B) and Humber (B-) are counted with the Twins
For those interested, here are the totals for each grade:
A: 8
- Clay Buchholz BOS
- Jay Bruce CIN
- Clayton Kershaw LAD
- Joba Chamberlain NYY
- Colby Rasmus STL
- Evan Longoria TB
- Jacob McGee TB
- David Price TB
A-: 9
- Matt Wieters BAL
- Jacoby Ellsbury BOS
- Jed Lowrie BOS
- Joey Votto CIN
- Johnny Cueto CIN
- Franklin Morales COL
- Cameron Maybin FLA
- Andy LaRoche LAD
- Andrew McCutcheon PIT
B+: 55; B: 83; B-:91; C+: 290; C: 541
Using Sickels as an arbiter, the Nationals are a middle of the road organization. This is roughly where I see them, somewhere in the 12-15 range. They are getting incrementally better but there is still room for growth.
Scott | 11-Feb-08 at 4:59 pm | Permalink
Brian-
What Sickels-grade prospect could be obtained for Nick Johnson if he is traded at the end of Spring Training? Particularly a leadoff middle infielder?
Brian Oliver | 11-Feb-08 at 5:32 pm | Permalink
Scott - I’d ask for one B+, one C+, and one unranked guy and imagine getting one B and one C and one unranked guy
Positively Half St. (4 more days) | 11-Feb-08 at 5:47 pm | Permalink
That would pain me, but it sounds like a fair return.
Gary | 11-Feb-08 at 7:55 pm | Permalink
OK, stupid question I’m about to ask: why would we even be CONTEMPLATING shipping Nick out?? Shouldn’t we see how (not IF, but how) his knee holds up in spring training, before we go down THAT particular road??
I mean, if it happens, it happens. But let’s be 100% sure about any of this BEFORE you decide to pull the trigger.
Scott | 11-Feb-08 at 10:54 pm | Permalink
Gary - I would prefer to see Nick scooping up errant throws out of the dirt and giving some protection to Ryan in the fourth slot. He may be the best hitter on the team and his head seems to be in the game at all times.
However, Bowden might move him if both he an Dmitri are healthy and hitting. Dmitri seems to have secured a position as team guru for the wayward players and management might not see him as a bench player. Having two starting first basemen may not be a luxury a thin team can afford. He also seems to have loaded up on bench players who can fill in at first base.
If they are going to trade Nick, I would prefer to see them pick up a quality leadoff hitter. Middle infield seems to be the likely place for that. I doubt Lopez will ever be one. He might hit but he doesn’t find ways to get on base: walks, bunts.
Louis J. | 12-Feb-08 at 8:09 am | Permalink
Gary
If healthy, Johnson is the odd man out. Young has become the #1 club house guy and a fairly good contact switch-hitter and they have him under control thru 2010. AND, they have Boone who can fill in at 1B if Young gets hurt. Plus, they could have 1B prospects Whitesell, Whitney, Marerro and a 2008 draft choice (Smoak, Alvarez, Alonso, Dykstra & Wallace) to be used for another 1B prospect.
Johnson could return a better player(s) in a trade. The Yankees could use Johnson (both offensively & defensively)and Bowden has a good working relationship w/Cashman of the Yankees. The Giants could also use a veteran 1B and may have a leadoff middle-infielder (Velez), a young LHP (J. Sanchez) & minor league 1B (D’Alessio) available.
The big question to be asked is: What do the Nats do if Dmitri Young “falls off the wagon” and reverts back to his problems of the past? What would be Plan B in such as case?
Pilchard | 12-Feb-08 at 11:10 am | Permalink
I love what Dmitiri did for the Nats last year, but Nick Johnson will be the 1st baseman for the Nats as long as he is healthy. No defensive position is more consistenly under-rated than 1st base. Based on defense alone, Johnson would save the Nats defense a ton of baserunners, in greater range, and receiving anything close to the bag first. Dmitri is a train-wreck at 1st.
In addtion, Johnson is always onbase. His OBP was 4th in the NL and in 2005 and 6th in 2006. While Dmitri was a nice feel good story in 2007, he is not the answer at 1st base, and is really not an everyday MLBer. Also, Johnson is 5 years younger.
John | 12-Feb-08 at 11:43 am | Permalink
With Marrero, I’ll be disappointed if the Nat’s take another 1B with that top pick. Marrero’s putting up special numbers for his age as compared to other hitters who have been successful.
Right now I’m hoping for Alexandria native pitcher Tim Melville or catcher Kyle Skipworth. College lefty Christian Friedrich of Eastern Kentucky is also interesting. Unless the 1B is considerably better, I think the Nats will go a different direction.
Scott | 12-Feb-08 at 12:20 pm | Permalink
Brian - Pilchard brings up an interesting point about underrated defensive positions. What order would you rank the 8 defensive positions for importance? Or, comment on the order below.
1) Catcher - calling the game - in on every pitch - stopping wild pitches
2) Shortstop - sees the most ground balls, covers wide range, double plays
3) Centerfield - covers the most terrain
4) First Base - saves bad throws, covers bunts, protects the line
5) Third Base - hot corner, covers bunts
6) Second Base - turns double plays
7) Right Field - Hold runners to second with strong arm
8) Left Field - Good place for good bat - no arm
Brian Oliver | 12-Feb-08 at 1:19 pm | Permalink
Scott - I’m going to lean on Bill James to answer your question. From wiki …
DH < 1B < LF < RF < 3B < CF < 2B < SS < CA
Positions at the right end of the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right to left along the spectrum successfully during their careers.
Eliot | 12-Feb-08 at 1:50 pm | Permalink
Brian, Scott,
This is indeed what the wiki says but it is demonstrably not true. Catchers pretty much never move to shortstop. They are catchers often because they can’t run. The skill sets are different on many positions. (Shortstops need speed AND a strong arm. RFs strong arm and some speed. 2nd base, quick hands, feet, not so much arm.) Scott also was asking a question that from a Sabermetric point of view involves win shares for defense. I’m not nerdy enough to help on this one as Sabermetrics has had an extremely difficult time figuring out a useful metric for defense. The chart above is received wisdom and probably is as good as anything we’ve got right now.
Wooden U. Lykteneau | 12-Feb-08 at 8:03 pm | Permalink
Eliot - Neither Brian nor Bill James said that that was the logical, step-by-step progression, only that that was the weighting of importance and difficulty. Moving leftward does not mean one step at a time. James invented this spectrum, if I remember correctly to discuss how teams were wrong to try to convert 3B to 2B (e.g. Greg Jeffries, late 1980s) and I know other baseball writers were fascinated with the S.F. Giants trying repeatedly to convert strong-armed OFs to 3B.
Eliot | 13-Feb-08 at 8:58 am | Permalink
Thanks, Wooden. Makes sense to me.