Nationals Farm Authority

Yet another middle infielder. Esmailyn (Smiley) Gonzalez was trumpeted by the Nationals as their re-introduction into the international market. Gonzalez was signed to a $1.4 million deal as much for the statement it makes to the “buscones” (player agents) as for the potential he has to develop into a viable major leaguer. He played the 2007 season as a 17-year old in the Gulf Coast League where he batted 245/382/311 over 33 games. His plate discipline was remarkable for someone his age. The concern is with his extra-base power, he managed only five extra base hits in 106 at-bats. Reports were he was struggling with a sore shoulder which could be a reason for the lack of pop. Drafted as a shortstop, scouts believe his future is at second base as his movement to the right is not what a team expects from a shortstop. Gonzalez is still a work in progress. He might get a shot in Hagerstown but I would hope that the Nationals tread cautiously with a young player and start him in Vermont in 2008.

Shairon Martis was acquired by the Nationals from the San Francisco Giants in 2006 in exchange for Mike Stanton. Martis pitched well in Potomac in 2007 as a 21-year old. The righthander has an above average fastball (sits in the 87-90 range) and an above average change-up. His breaking stuff still needs work. If he can fine tune his slider (or curve), Martis has the chance to be a solid middle of the rotation starting pitcher. He should pitch in Harrisburg in 2008 at the relatively young age of 21.

Another middle infielder makes the list of hitters at #9. Stephen King was a 2006 third round draft pick out of a Florida high school. He never got a chance to get on the field in 2006 as contract negotiations dragged on through the summer. Scouts believe that the 20-year old middle infielder has an above average bat and the ability to develop power as he matures physically. The Nationals over-assigned him 2007, placing him in Low-A Hagerstown right from square one. Over 35 games, King hit only180/261/258 with 51 strikeouts over 128 at-bats. The struggles seemed to linger after the Nationals demoted him to the GCL (248/315/466) though he managed nine home runs and thirty RBI over 42 games (161 at-bats). Scouts see projectability with King’s bat, in the mold of the offensive middle infielder (like Jeff Kent). Though drafted as a shortstop, King’s career is likely on the other side of the bag as a second baseman. He’ll need to work on his footwork there but he is an intriguing option going forward. It should be take two in Hagerstown in 2008.

Another pick from the 2006 draft, Adam Carr was an 18th round draft pick out of Oklahoma State University. He played most of his college career as apower-hitting first baseman but the Nationals saw a power arm for their bullpen. The 23-year old Carr has a fastball in the mid to high 90s with a developing slider. His 2007 numbers in Potomac were a mixed bag with 65 strikeouts over 49 innings but he also walked 38. Reports have the Nationals not concerned with the wildness as Carr attempts to harness the control of his slider. Carr finished the 2007 in Harrisburg and seems likely to begin his 2008 their as the Senators closer. If he can improve on his control early in the season, it would not surprise me to see him get a shot in the Nationals bullpen in August of this year.

My choice for the #10 hitter is likely to generate some debate. Ian Desmond was a 2004 3rd round draft pick by the Montreal Expos out of a Florida high school. Most people remember Desmond primarily from his performance in one game against the Orioles during the Nationals first spring training as Washington’s team. That was likely the worst thing that could have happened to him because he was immediately portrayed as “the next Derek Jeter.” Desmond is not the next Jeter, but he remains a prospect worth watching. He was rushed to Double-A in 2006 (184/221/232) which added to the delay in his development and it seemed to have lingered when he was demoted to Potomac part way through the 2006 season (244/313/384). He spent the entire 2007 season in the Carolina League where he started to turn the corner. After a slow start (239/339/380), he picked up in the second half (286/372/478). The biggest thing to look at for Desmond was his age in 2007, he was 21 which is right in line for expectations of the Carolina League. Scouts have commented that his plate discipline/pitch recognition improved significantly last season. But the strongest part of Desmond’s resume is his glove. He makes the spectacular play almost with ease. His challenge was always his focus on the routine play which also appeared to improve as the 2007 season wore on. He should be in Harrisburg in 2008 and if he can build on his strong second half, Desmond still has the opportunity to compete for the shortstop role in Washington in 2009 (when Cristian Guzman’s contract has expired).

John Lannan was the biggest surprise of the 2007 season. The 2005 11th round selection by the Nationals skyrocketed from Potomac to the majors in less than a season. The lefty is a finesse pitcher who relies on two fastballs, a change and a curve. He is never going to strike out a ton of hitters and will have to rely on his defense to help him. His ceiling is as a #4 starter but that should be just fine for the Nationals who are likely to give him every opportunity to compete for a spot in the big league rotation in 2008. I think he’ll be a victim of the numbers game and begin his 2008 in Triple-A Columbus.

For those in the Harrisburg area, the Senators will be hosting their FanFest on March 1 from 11AM to 4PM at Harrisburg Mall’s Center Court. As part of their FanFest, they will be holding the following contest (press release copied/pasted)

Are YOU the biggest Harrisburg Senators fan around? Prove it! Kids aged 12 and under can enter the Senators’ Klubhouse Kids contest for a chance to receive the VIP treatment for the entire 2008 season! “Tryouts” are scheduled for March 1st at Center Court of the Harrisburg Mall, 11:30am-2pm as part of the Harrisburg Senators FanFest.

Two kids will be selected: one boy and one girl. Each prospect will have about 60 seconds on stage during the FanFest to show judges why he or she deserves to be a Klubhouse Kid. Youngsters can show off their cheering prowess, sing a song, perform magic tricks… whatever it takes to convince the judges that they are the most enthusiastic fanatics in town. Prospects do NOT need to be baseball players to win; just huge fans of the Senators!

Entrants must pre-register by calling Emily Winslow at 717-231-4444 or e-mailing ewinslow@senatorsbaseball.com. Only 100 tryout spots are available. Prospects must attend the FanFest to be considered.

The winners will be the face of the team for the 2008 season; they will receive a free pass to every home game, a cameo in at least one Senators’ TV commercial, an appearance in the Senators’ gameday program and other print media and baseball cards featured in the Senators’ 2008 team set. Just like a top draft pick, the Klubhouse Kids will be introduced to the media at a press conference and presented with a Senators’ jersey and hat. They will throw out ceremonial first pitches on Opening Night, April 3rd at Commerce Bank Park.

The Senators’ FanFest is set for 11am-4pm, March 1st at the Harrisburg Mall’s Center Court. This is the third year in a row the Harrisburg Mall has hosted the event. The FanFest will feature various games for kids of all ages, the Senators’ famous winning spinning wheel, and for the third year in a row, the Senators will have National Anthem tryouts. The 2008 edition of the FanJam will make an appearance and Rascal and Grrrounder will sign autographs!

The 2008 season begins on Thursday, April 3rd at Commerce Bank Park when the Senators host the Cleveland Indians’ Eastern League affiliate Akron Aeros. The 2008 season marks the 22nd season for the Senators since baseball returned to City Island in 1987. For more information about the 2008 season or FanFest, please check out the Senators website at www.senatorsbaseball.com.

Derek Norris was drafted out of high school in the fourth round of last year’s draft. He plays a position where the Nationals have a definite lack of depth, catcher. Scouts rave about his defense: a strong arm, above average mobility, and leadership. He also has well above average power potential. As he was drafted out of high school, it’s going to take some time for him to develop. It seems likely he’ll begin 2008 in short season Vermont as the Nationals will be unlikely to rush him unnecessarily.

Garrett Mock was acquired in 2006 from the Arizona Diamondbacks along with Matt Chico in exchange for Livan Hernandez. The 24-year old righthander had his 2007 season delayed as he recovered from knee surgery performed in late 2006. He divided he is 2007 between the Gulf Coast League Nationals, Potomac Nationals, and Harrisburg Senators where he 2-7 over 65 innings of work. He was selected by the Nats to pitch in the Arizona Fall League where he was 1-2 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 26 1/3 innings of work. He has a low-90s fastball, above average slider, a solid curve and changeup. Mock’s challenge has been that he has been far too hittable, hitters getting solid contact on his pitches. If he can improve that, he has the shot of being a middle of the rotation starting pitcher. Mock was added to the 40-man after the 2007 season and will get every opportunity to earn a spot in the 2008 rotation. He’s my sleeper pick for the 2008 season.

Josh Whitesell was a 2003 6th round draft pick out of Loyola Marymount University. The 25-year old first baseman repeated Double-A Harrisburg where he significantly improved his plate discipline resulting in a 284/425/512 (after 263/353/432 in 2006). He mashes righthanded pitchers (307/457/558) and improved his defense enough to be rated by Double-A managers as the top defensive first baseman. He was added to the 40-man roster in the off-season but faces the challenge of Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson on the 25-man in front of him (as well as the chance that Matt Whitney sticks as a Rule 5). Columbus is his likely starting point in 2008.

Brad Peacock is the last draft-and-follow signing by the Nationals. After being drafted in the 41st round of the 2006 draft, the Nationals signed the righty in 2007 after a season at Palm Beach (FL) Community College. He has drawn comparisons physically to Tim Hudson (i.e. short and slight). He has a high-80s/low-90s fastball, an above average curveball and a developing changeup. He split his time in the GCL as a starter and reliever. His ceiling is a #3 starter and he is all about projectability at this point. The Nationals could challenge him with a start in Potomac in 2008 but Hagerstown might be more reasonable.

I counted up the various grades from John Sickels prospect guide and they break out as follows: 

• 1 - Includes realigning the players from the Baltimore trade of Erik Bedard to Seattle for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler. Tillman (B+), Mickolio (C), and Butler (B-) are counted with the Orioles
• 2 - Includes realigning the players from the Detroit trade of Michael Hernandez to Texas for Armando Galarraga. Hernandez (C) is counted with Texas and Galarraga (C+) is counted with Detroit
• 3 - Includes realigning the players from the Minnesota trade of Johan Santana to New York (NL) for Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, and Phil Humber. Guerra (B+), Gomez (B), Mulvey (B) and Humber (B-) are counted with the Twins

For those interested, here are the totals for each grade:

A: 8

• Clay Buchholz BOS
• Jay Bruce CIN
• Clayton Kershaw LAD
• Joba Chamberlain NYY 
• Colby Rasmus STL
• Evan Longoria TB
• Jacob McGee TB
• David Price TB

A-: 9

• Matt Wieters BAL
• Jacoby Ellsbury BOS
• Jed Lowrie BOS
• Joey Votto CIN
• Johnny Cueto CIN
• Franklin Morales COL
• Cameron Maybin FLA
• Andy LaRoche LAD
• Andrew McCutcheon PIT

B+: 55; B: 83; B-:91; C+: 290; C: 541

Using Sickels as an arbiter, the Nationals are a middle of the road organization. This is roughly where I see them, somewhere in the 12-15 range. They are getting incrementally better but there is still room for growth.

Matt Whitney was another Rule 5 selection from Decmber. The soon-to-be 24 year old Whitney (Wednesday is his birthday) is a righthanded first baseman/third baseman selected from the Cleveland Indians organization. Power is his calling card, exhibited by his 32 home runs in A-ball last season. Scouting reports have concerns with his propensity to strikeout and while he has been listed as a third baseman in the past, the belief is he is not quick enough to play there, limiting him to first base. Like Guzman, he’ll need to stick on the 25-man roster all season or have the Nationals work out some sort of deal with Cleveland to allow him to go to the minors. Based on his power, he is an intriguing option but faces long odds on remaining with the organization past spring training.

Brad Meyers was a 2007 5th round selection by the Nationals out of Loyola Marymount University. The tall righthander has a four pitch repertoire (fastball, curveball, slider and changeup) that he can throw for strikes. He is adept at getting groundballs but has a low strikeout total. Presently, he projects as another back of the rotation starter or long reliever. He ended his 2007 in Potomac and it seems most likely he’ll start there in 2008. Though a quick promotion to Harrisburg is certainly possible.

Garrett Guzman was the second Rule 5 selection the Nationals made from the Minnesota Twins in the December draft. A lefthanded corner outfielder, Guzman batted 312/359/453 with 14 home runs for the Double-A New Britain Rock Cats. The 25-year old Guzman was a 10th round draft pick by the Twins in the 2001 draft. He was working his way up through the Minnesota organization when a car accident temporarily derailed his progress. He missed the 2005 season with a broken neck but rebounded with a solid 2006 split between High-A and Double-A. Guzman fits the mold as a 4th or 5th outfielder. He has solid plate discipline, average power and shows the ability to get on base. As a Rule 5 selection, Guzman will have to stick on the 25-man roster or have the Nationals work out some sort of deal with the Twins. With four of the outfield spots seemingly defined (Austin Kearns, Lastings Milldege, Wily Mo Pena, and Elijah Dukes), Guzman will have to excel during spring training in order to hang around. The fact that he is lefthanded (while the previous four are all right handed) is in his favor but he’ll have to compete with Willie Harris, Rob Mackowiak and Ryan Langerhans for that 5th spot (assuming the Nationals decide to carry five outfielders).

Jhonny Nunez was acquired in 2006 from the Los Angeles Dodgers (for Marlon Anderson). The 21-year old righthander pitched for Hagerstown in 2007 where he finished 4-6 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 106 2/3 innings of work. He throws a low-90s fastball along with a curve and slider. Reports are his slider is his out pitch, which he uses for strikeouts (86 in 106+IP) and groundballs. His control is still erratic and he’ll need to work on his stamina if he hopes to remain a starter. But his frame is projectable and he still has a chance to develop into a back end of the rotation arm. A start in Potomac in 2008 seems likely.

After spending the weekend in Las Vegas for the Super Bowl (thank you Giants for winning that moneyline), I came home to find “The Baseball Prospect Book 2008,” John Sickels annual review of around 1,000 prospects in minor league baseball.

I have not had time to pore through it to the degree I want, but this is the third year in a row that I’ve purchased it and for those who frequent this site, well worth the $24 investment (buy it here).

Here is some quick background on how Sickels approaches his prospect review/rating:

GRADES AND WHAT THEY MEAN

• Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.
• Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
• Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
• A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
• Also note that there is diversity within each category. I’m a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
• Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

In 2007, Sickels provided reviews of 34 Nationals prospects and in 2008 37.

• 1 - 2007 grade with New York Yankees
• 2 - 2007 grade with Tampa Rays
• 3 - 2008 grade listed under Tampa Rays
• 4 - 2007 grade with Los Angeles Dodgers
• 5 - 2008 grade listed under Baltimore Orioles
• 6 - no longer with Nationals
• % - drafted in 2007
• ! - no longer qualified as a rookie

Summarizing it …

• # = Does not include Clippard, Dukes, or Hanrahan
• % = Includes Jimenez; does not include Watson or Gibson

To put things further into perspective, from my quick scan/count, in 2008 Sickels ranked only seven ‘A’ prospects (note … three with Tampa); ten ‘A-’ prospects; and fifty-four ‘B+’ prospects. 

It seems the Nationals are on the right path but there is certainly room for growth.