I’m going to start looking at what the 2008 draft holds for the Nationals who pick at #9 in the first round, #56 in the second round, #87 in the third round, and #121 (+30) in the rounds four and out. Given that the Nationals realistically have one “high” pick, here are the #9 selections over the last 20 seasons (players in bold made the majors) to try and figure out what to expect there.
- 1988: Chicago Cubs drafted college 2B Ty Griffin- Griffin never made it past Double-A ball and was out of the minor leagues after the 1995 season. (Other names drafted close after [10-15 range]: college 3B Robin Ventura at #10, college LHP Pat Combs at #11, college 1B Tino Martinez at #14, & college SS Royce Clayton at #15)
- 1989: California Angels drafted college LHP Kyle Abbott- Abbott had a cup of coffee in the majors with the Angels & Phillies in 1991-92 but was out of the league by 1996. (Other names: HS CA Charles Johnson at #10 [unsigned], HS OF Calvin Murray at #11 [unsigned], HS RHP Jeff Juden at #12, and college CA Brent Mayne at #13)
- 1990: Los Angeles Dodgers selected HS LHP Ron Walden- All I could find were three appearances in the Florida State League in 1993. So suffice it to say, not a great return on investment. (Other names: HS OF Carl Everett at #10, HS IF Shane Andrews at #11, HS RHPs Todd Ritchie [#12] and Todd Van Poppel [#14], and college LHP Donovan Osborne)
- 1991: Baltimore Orioles drafted college OF Mark Smith- Smith was a journeyman IF/OF who played portions of eight seasons in the major leagues, primarily as a bench guy. (Other names: college RHP Tyler Greene at #10, HS LHP Shawn Estes at #11, college OF Doug Glanville at #12, HS OF Manny Ramirez at #13, and HS 1B Cliff Floyd at #14)
- 1992: New York Mets selected HS SS [yes SS] Preston Wilson- The first really successful pick from this list. Wilson moved to the OF in the minors and has had a very solid 10 year major league career, capped a 2nd place finish in the 1999 Rookie of the Year voting and an All-Star appearance in 2003. (Other names: college SS Michael Tucker at #10 and college LHP Ron Villone at #14)
- 1993: Detroit Tigers selected HS SS Matt Brunson- Brunson maxed out in the Florida State League in 1996. (Other names: college OF/P Brooks Kieschnick at #12, college LHP Billy Wagner at #12, HS 1B Derrek Lee at #14, & HS RHP Chris Carpenter at #15)
- 1994: Cincinnati Reds selected college LHP C.J. Nitkowski- Nitkowski had a successful major league career as a journeyman LHP. His final major league appearance was with the Nationals in 2005. (Other names: HS RHP Jaret Wright at #10, college SS Nomar Garciaparra at #12, HS CA Paul Konerko at #13, and college CA Jason Varitek at #14)
- 1995: Milwaukee Brewers selected college OF Geoff Jenkins-Another selection, like Wilson that has had a solid major league career. Jenkins is in 11th season in the major leagues with the Phillies in 2008. (Other names: HS SS Chad Hermansen, college RHP Matt Morris, college LHP Mark Redman, and HS OF Reggie Taylor)
- 1996: Florida Marlins selected college OF Mark Kotsay- Again, a solid major league career for another college draft pick. Kotsay has played for twelve seasons (including 2008). He is currently the starting CF for the Atlanta Braves. (Other names: HS 3B Eric Chavez at #10, HS RHP Adam Eaton at #11, and HS LHP Bobby Seay at #12)
- 1997: Minnesota Twins selected HS SS Michael Cuddyer- It took Cuddyer some time to stick in the major leagues but he is a solid contributor to the current Twins team as a RF. He should be considered a success story. (Other names: HS RHP Jon Garland at #10)
- 1998: San Diego Padres selected HS 3B Sean Burroughs - Burroughs was as well-known from his starring role in a Little League World Championship as he was for his former AL MVP father (Jeff Burroughs in 1974). He made it to AAA with the Padres by the time he was 20. He spent two full and two half-seasons with the Padres though he never had the power teams looked for out of a corner infielder. 2007 saw Burroughs in Triple-A for the Mariners where he was released in mid June. (Other names: college 1B Carlos Peña at #10, college SS Adam Everett at #12, and college RHP Jeff Weaver at #14)
- 1999: Oakland Athletics selected college LHP Barry Zito - Thus far, the most successful pitcher on this list. Zito was the 2002 Cy Young winner for the A’s. He was part of the big three in Oakland (along with RHP Tim Hudson and LHP Mark Mulder). Signed a huge free agent contract with the San Francisco Giants before the 2007 season and has not lived up to that contract so far. (Other names: college RHPs Ben Sheets at #10 and Brett Myers at #12)
- 2000: San Diego Padres selected HS LHP Mark Phillips - Highest level was Advanced A-ball in 2001 through 2003. The Yankees released him in 2003 due to an inability to fix his bad mechanics. He pitched in the independent league in 2007 with the Newark Bears. (Other names: college OF Joe Borchard at #12)
- 2001: Kansas City Royals selected HS RHP Colt Griffin - Another high school pitcher who was plagued by control issues. The reports in 2001 had him touching 100mph+ in high school. His max level was 2005 in Double-A for the Royals. He retired in 2005rather than rehab a shoulder injury. (Other names: college IF Chris Burke at #10 & JuCo IF Casey Kotchman at #13)
- 2002: Colorado Rockies selected college LHP Jeff Francis- Francis has a chance to challenge Zito as the best # pick of the last decade. The 27-year old lefty has won 34 games over first three full major league seasons. (Other names: HS OF Jeremy Hermida at #11, college LHP Joe Saunders at #12, & college SS Khalil Greene at #13)
- 2003: Texas Rangers selected HS LHP John Danks- On the third try, a high school pitcher finally makes the majors. Danks made his major league debut at 22 years of age with the Chicago White Sox where he was 6-13 with a 5.50ERA and 1.54WHIP. He is a member of the White Sox rotation in 2008. (Other names: HS OF Lastings Milledge at #12 & college SS Aaron Hill at #13)
- 2004: Colorado Rockies selected HS SS Chris Nelson- After struggling in the early part of his career, he finally had a breakout season in the hitter-friendly California League in 2007. He started the 2008 season in Double-A Tulsa for the Rockies. His future at SS for Colorado is in doubt given the presence of Troy Tulowitzski. Ranked by Baseball America as the Rockies #5 prospect entering the 2008 season. (Other names: college RHP Jered Weaver at #12, college LHP Bill Bray at #13, HS 3B Billy Butler at #14, & college SS Stephen Drew at #15)
- 2005: New York Mets selected college RHP Mike Pelfrey- Pelfrey has not been the rousing succes that the Mets would have hoped. He made his major league debut with four games in 2006. 2007 saw him bounce back and forth between Triple-A and the Mets. He is a member of the Mets 2008 starting rotation. (Other names: HS OF Cameron Maybin at #10)
- 2006: Baltimore Orioles selected HS 3B Billy Rowell- Rowell was tabbed the #5 overall prospect in the Orioles organization. His bat projects well though sticking at 3B is not a lock. He spent his 2007 is Sally League Delmarva and started 2008 in Carolina League Frederick. (Other names: college RHP Tim Lincecum at #10 and college RHP Max Scherzer at #11)
- 2007: Arizona Diamondbacks selected HS RHP Jarrod Parker- It’s clearly too early to make an assessment here though Baseball America is really high on Parker, ranking him #2 in the Diamondbacks organization in 2008 (and he became #1 when Arizona dealt #1 Carlos Gonzalez). (Other names: the next three names were all high schoolers [LHP Madison Bumgarner, RHP Phillippe Aumont, & 3B Matt Dominguez])
Over the last two decades, there have several hits (Wilson, Zito, Jenkins, Francis and Kotsay) and several misses (Griffin, Walden, Phillips, & Brunson). If you break it out by college versus high school, things get a little bit clearer:
| Drafted | Made Majors | |
|---|---|---|
| College Hitters | 4 | 3 |
| College Pitchers | 5 | 5 |
| High School Hitters | 6 | 3 |
| High School Pitchers | 5 | 1 |
To be fair, it is likely too early to count the results of the two high schoolers drafted in 2006 and 2007 (and perhaps that can even be extended to Nelson from 2004 who is still only 22 years old). By stripping those three out, the table looks like this
| Drafted | Made Majors | |
|---|---|---|
| College Hitters | 4 | 3 |
| College Pitchers | 5 | 5 |
| High School Hitters | 4 | 3 |
| High School Pitchers | 4 | 1 |
It is really not that surprising that teams got better results from the college selections than their counterparts from high school. If you run through the “Other Names” I mentioned, you’ll see the pattern continue with an additional 32 collegians (18 bats and 14 arms) versus 22 high schoolers (13 bats and 9 arms … not counting the 2007 class). While teams certainly had their successes with high schoolers in this range (Manny Ramirez first among those), the history of the draft shows better results in focusing the pick in the college ranks.
Over the next six weeks or so, I am going to begin looking at the names the Nationals might see on the board with their #9 selection (as well as the guys likely to be long gone by the time they select).
Will it be a high schooler or a collegian?
Nate | 14-Apr-08 at 12:21 pm | Permalink
I’d like to take this opportunity to say “Buster Posey“. Thank you and goodnight.
Greg | 14-Apr-08 at 12:45 pm | Permalink
I like [Kyle] Skipworth and his premium left handed bat….Or the best player available at that #9 pick.
Dick | 14-Apr-08 at 1:03 pm | Permalink
If Nate doesn’t get his wish, then I say ‘Gordon Beckham‘.
When can we start looking at 2009? Looks like a great pick will be coming our way!
Brian Oliver | 14-Apr-08 at 1:03 pm | Permalink
Best available is always choice #1.
Both Posey and Skipworth fit the bill for a need of the Nationals … catching. And both are talent-rated around this range of picks. Scouts seem to favor Skipworth over Posey.
Dick | 14-Apr-08 at 1:03 pm | Permalink
Buster Posey and Josh Smoker went to the same high school, didn’t they?
Dick | 14-Apr-08 at 1:06 pm | Permalink
Regarding Posey vs. Skipworth, good for the scouts. I’ll take the college guy with the 1.433 OPS on a 31-3 team in a good conference, thank you!
Brian Oliver | 14-Apr-08 at 1:09 pm | Permalink
Dick - Posey went to Lee County HS while Smoker went to Calhoun HS … both in GA (at least that’s what Google tells me)
Dick | 14-Apr-08 at 1:15 pm | Permalink
I must be confused. One is near Macon, the other near Chattanooga.
Brian Oliver | 14-Apr-08 at 1:23 pm | Permalink
The Baseball Cube is a good resource of college/high school information. The only teammate of Smoker I recognize is Charlie Culberson, who was a Giants first rounder in 2007. Posey, on the other hand, was a teammate of unsigned Nationals 2006 draft pick D’Vontrey Richardson in high school and is now a college teammate. Posey is one year older.
Chris | 14-Apr-08 at 1:26 pm | Permalink
With the focus on drafting pitchers early last year I think we should look for a bat.
Assuming Tim Beckham is gone I am in the Skipworth/Posey camp. Also, I like Aaron Hicks as a 5 tool CF
John | 14-Apr-08 at 1:32 pm | Permalink
I think Eric Hosmer will be the pick. He’s a good enough athlete to move to LF and many feel he’s the best high school bat in the last 20 years.
I read that Mike Rizzo has a history of work with Boras and I can’t see Bowden letting a bat like this get by unless [Pedro] Alvarez or possibly [Justin] Smoak fall to #9.
Brian Oliver | 14-Apr-08 at 1:36 pm | Permalink
(Note: I have been updating the various comments with links to scouting reports for those who might not recognize a name)
Chris | 14-Apr-08 at 1:43 pm | Permalink
John:
Where have you read Hosmer could move to left? While Ive read hes a very good 1B, I havent seen anyone say anything about left.
John | 14-Apr-08 at 1:51 pm | Permalink
I haven’t read that specifically. It’s just my opinion based on various info I have. He’s 22 for 22 in stolen bases between last year and the start of this year. He sounds like more than enough of an athlete to play LF.
If he tells Bowden, “No I’m a 1B”, that obviously would change the pick, but I’m betting he could and would play left.
When you have an opportunity the Nats have with this pick, you have to make an impact. This is a chance to get a potential superstar at 18 years old. A player many have said is the best high school bat they’ve ever seen. I don’t think you can let that go, unless it’s for Alvarez, who could play in 2009 or Smoak if you like his tools better than his production.
Skipworth sounds great, but I’m betting he’s gone before #9. A catcher with that bat that doesn’t have signability issues? He’ll go very early.
Dick | 14-Apr-08 at 2:11 pm | Permalink
Gordon Beckham has an OPS of 1.401 as the shortstop of the Georgia Bulldogs. A worthy middle infielder or catcher would be great!
From these posts and other things I have read, there should be someone who can help us available at #9. From Brian’s analysis, sounds like we should steer clear of a HS pitcher with that pick, anything else should probably make it to the bigs.
Marcus | 14-Apr-08 at 3:06 pm | Permalink
Gerrit Cole and Tim Melville could be two interesting pitching options at this spot.
Of course if Alvarez falls I expect our FO to pick him. Does anyone think he can play second?
Andrew S | 14-Apr-08 at 3:33 pm | Permalink
No chance Alvarez plays second. He’s built like Aramis Ramirez.
Tofu Dog | 14-Apr-08 at 4:29 pm | Permalink
Catching?? What about Jesus Flores? He is a better catching option than anything we have in the middle infield. A closer like Josh Fields makes some sense given the suddenly questionable strength of our bullpen. We need so much more than a catcher I am curious how you got to that conclusion.
charles | 14-Apr-08 at 4:39 pm | Permalink
It usually tend to be a bad idea to draft relievers with a pick in the top ten. I think.
Brian Oliver | 14-Apr-08 at 4:51 pm | Permalink
The goal is to take the best available regardless of position.
As for the presence of Flores, the system has a need for catching depth as much as it does middle infield depth. If a guy like Posey or Skipworth is available and he is the highest rated on the Nationals board, you don’t pass on them because of Flores
With regards to drafting relief pitchers, if that player is the best talent on the board, you select him. In this case, I do not believe Fields is a top 10 talent given the draft pool
Andrew S | 14-Apr-08 at 9:22 pm | Permalink
Plus, just because the bullpen has struggled this far (2 weeks in), doesn’t mean you draft a college closer in June. Fields will likely go to a contending team (Which means a team who is probably drafting in the lower 15…which is about where he fits in).
Louis J. | 15-Apr-08 at 8:08 am | Permalink
I look for the Nats to draft a LHH/switch power hitting 1B and do something else with Chris Marrero….and like either:
(a) Justin Smoak (6-4,215)(S/L) he’s having a quiet year at South Carolina (35 games) with 362/497/677, 11 double-11 HR,34 walks/19 strikeouts, 29 RBI & only 1 error or
(b) Yonder Alonso (6-2,215) he’s having a good year on the #1 Miami team (33 games)with 358/533/679, and 8 doubles-8 HR, 41 walks/17 strikeouts, 33 RBI and 2 errors.
Dick | 15-Apr-08 at 11:32 am | Permalink
Louis J: What about Hosmer?
Louis J. | 15-Apr-08 at 11:56 am | Permalink
Dick
I like Eric Hosmer a lot…6-4,210 sweet swinging & power hitting stud!!! If the Nats want to go the high school route again, he’s their man. With Nick Johnson a free agent after 2009 and the Nats still trying to decide where to play Marrero, I was more interested in a college player who could move up quickly BUT I could turn to Hosmer if Smoak & Alonso are represented by Scott Boras.
John | 15-Apr-08 at 1:07 pm | Permalink
Louis: Marrero’s going to be a 1B. They’ve tried him in the OF and it didn’t work out. I think it would be the other guy(Hosmer, Smoak) that will move.
I’ve read Alonso is not even a good defender at 1B. I doubt they’d take him.
I could see Smoak being the pick if he will move to LF. I’ve read that his numbers are picking up and a lot of scouts just like him for his swing anyway.
I’m starting to wonder if the Nats have a legit shot at Alvarez. It’s starting to look like he’ll drop to at least fourth(Orioles) and if the Os take Smoak(same hometown as Wieters) or G. Beckham(position of need for them and huge stats against good comp), I could easily see him sliding to ninth based on his ties with Boras and his alledged salary/bonus demands. I’d still rate it as a longshot, but it doesn’t seem as impossible to me now as before.
BTW, the Boras clients I’m aware of are Alvarez, Aaron Crow, Eric Hosmer, and Gerrit Cole. I’ve read speculation that Smoak will probably “sign” with him, but haven’t seen that as being official.
Dick | 15-Apr-08 at 1:12 pm | Permalink
Louis J: Forget Hosmer. John beat me to the punch in pointing out he is a Boras client!
John | 15-Apr-08 at 1:40 pm | Permalink
Dick: I don’t think being a Boras client will keep the Nats away. They were pretty high on Moustakas and Wieters last year. I’m also told that Mike Rizzo has worked well with Boras while with the DBacks.
Another thing to keep in mind is that they don’t have as many high picks this year so that + the increased revenue will give them a lot of money to spend on #9.
Yet another thing to remember though, is that this years IFA class is supposed to be the best everand they may steer some cash that way.
Dick | 15-Apr-08 at 2:08 pm | Permalink
John: Louis J had the Boras issues, not me.
See my post 15. I, like you, am beginning to feel like something surprising my fall into our hands at 9. Maybe not Alvarez, but you never know. BA, and others, believes there are 4 top-quality players in this draft (Alvarez, Crow, Tim Beckham and Matusz). Could one slip, maybe? If not, Gordon Beckham, Hosmer, Alonzo, Smoak, Posey and others could all help, particularly if a middle infielder or catcher. Wouldn’t touch a high-school arm, though. Also, Rizzo tends to like college, Brown HS players. I think Rizzo will carry the day this year.
Louis J. | 15-Apr-08 at 3:49 pm | Permalink
Rizzo influence,I do believe, will result in a college player at #9 and the best high school kid left at #56…The reason Boras clients may be off-limits for the Nats is that the Nats need another good crop of prospects to sign from the 2008 draft and spending big $$$ for the #9 player would prevent them from spending another $7+M on 20 draft choices…
John | 15-Apr-08 at 4:34 pm | Permalink
We’ll see. I don’t see them passing on a Boras guy if they like him.
I also don’t see them definitely taking a college player at 9 or 56. I think they will take their top rated guy at each spot.
Gordon Beckham(9/16/86) was one day early of being exactly one year younger than Alexander Ovechkin(9/17/85). For that reason alone he should be the pick:)