The performance of the various affiliates is something to watch though the only caveat I would mention is the relative age of the key performers on the teams. In Columbus, Harrisburg, and Potomac, several of the players are “old” in comparison to the level at which they are playing.

This is what I’ve used before

AAA: 22-23 years old
AA: 21-22 years old
A Advanced: 20-21 years old
A: 19-20 years old
Short Season and Rookie Ball are often used for rehabilitation and initial introduction to recent draft picks/free agent signings. It’s difficult to really pigeonhole an age for these levels, but suffice it to say if a player spends more than 1 season there, he isn’t likely to be a prospect of note.

Using Potomac as an example, the average age of the SPs is 22.4 (21.75 if you exclude the 24-year old Adrian Alaniz). That’s a good age to level comparison. Excluding the 19-year old Chris Marrero, the average age of the typical IF (Devin Ivany, Ofilo Castro, Seth Bynum, & Michael Martinez or Matt Rogelstad) is 25.3. That’s old. The average age of the OF (Frank Diaz, Edgardo Baez & Marvin Lowrance) is 23. That’s somewhat old.

I’m not saying to ignore the results, but there is a certain degree of impact of having experienced players on the overall performance of the team that needs to be considered to some degree. Believe me, I much prefer following the affiliates when they are winning, it’s easier to do these daily updates, for sure.

The one team that does not have this issue is Hagerstown where the majority of the everyday players are at that age range (or younger).

I am enjoying the better start as well, especially as an antacid to help me deal with how the Nats themselves are doing so far. With age vs. level of competition in mind, how long will players need to succeed before they are considered for a promotion during the season? I am not talking to the big club, but from Potomac to Harrisburg, or Harrisburg to Columbus.

I’d imagine the Nationals would want to see at least six weeks of solid performance before the wheels started turning.

I like your “chart” of the typical age of a player relative to the level their playing at. But, shouldn’t you also take into consideration the time/length of each stay for a player at each level?

For example, Player A is drafted out of HS (18 years old). Starts in Rookie Ball (18). Next year plays in Short Season (19). Progressively moves up the ladder (new level per year), so by the time he reaches AAA, he would be 23 years old.

Player B, drafted out of college (22). If he proceeds on the same path as Player A (moves up one level per year), he would be 26-27 years old in AAA, which would be deemed “too old” to be a prosepct.

Granted, college players tend to skip a level here and there, but basically both Players A and B would have spent the same amount of time at each level, but Player B would be considered “too old.”

This is why I don’t understand the knock on Justin Maxwell. Some “scouts” felt he was too old to be playing in Potomac last year. But it was only his second season in the minors. He started in 06 in Short Season then moved to A-. Then in 07, he started in A- then moved to A+. This season, he starts in AA and will probably either move up to AAA or straight to DC. Isn’t this the preferred movement up the organization’s ladder for a prospect? Just because he was 22 when drafted, this is supposed to make him “too old” for each level he’s playing at?

Maxwell was drafted in 2005, didn’t play at all which really wasn’t best from a developmental perspective because it meant a college player was starting his 2006 in Vermont when he should have been in Low-A. Every step was subsequently delayed a season.