Nationals Farm Authority

Future Focus - Catchers

As a reminder, the Nats picks are as follows:

• 1st round: #9
• 2nd round: #56
• 3rd round: #87
• 4th round & out: #121 +30 (i.e. 151, 181, etc)

The first nine picks are

1. Tampa Bay
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Baltimore
5. San Francisco
6. Florida
7. Cincinnati
8. Chicago White Sox
9. Washington

The number of total picks in each round is as follows:

• 1st round: 1-30
• Supplemental 1st: 31-46
• 2nd round: 47-78 (two extra picks due to unsigned 2007 2nd rounders)
• 3rd round: 79-108
• Supplemental 3rd: 109-112
• 4th round: 113-142
• 5th round and on: +30 to each end

Once again, with the assist from PGCrosschecker, here are some of the top first base prospects available in the upcoming MLB First Year Player Draft:

1. Eric Hosmer - The 18-year old lefthanded hitting 1B is a top 5 player on talent but could potentially slide some if the rumors of his agent (Scott Boras) and contract demands ($7 million) are true. First base is typically not a position you see teams going at the top of the first round, but Hosmer’s hitting ability (well above average power) make him an exception to the rule. I honestly think he’ll be off the board before the Nationals select at #9 (perhaps Baltimore at #4 or San Francisco at #5). If he is still on the board for the Nationals, he’d be hard to pass up. Yes, Chris Marrero is mentioned as the 1B of the future but as I have written over and over, a team needs to take the best player available (BPA).
2. Justin Smoak -The 21-year old switch-hitting Smoak is the top college 1B in the upcoming draft. He is currently hitting 388/502/781 with 16 homers and 48 RBI in 42 games for the University of South Carolina. Defensively, his size and range limit him to 1B but his hitting ability from both sides of the plate looks very likely to translate to the major leagues. Scouts project him with 35+ HR power. He’s another player who seems a lead pipe lock to go in the the top 10 picks and realistically has a chance to be on the board at #9 for the Nationals. If it comes to a choice between Hosmer and Smoak, I’ll give the slight nod to the switch-hitter who is closer to what he is likely to be.
3. Yonder Alonso -The 21-year old lefty is the starting 1B for the University of Miami. He is currently hitting 379/548/742 with 11 homers and 42 RBI over 38 games played with an impressive 47BB to only 19K over 124AB. His power is legitimate and scouts believe he could develop into a 20-25 HR guy. The only concern I’ve read is that he might be best served as a designated hitter. I believe that #9 is too early for Alonso as there will be better players available when its the Nats pick. This is not to say he’s that far off. I imagine he’ll end up as a mid to late first round selection (20-25).
4. Dennis Raben (also OF) -A Hurricane teammate of Alonso, the 20-year old lefthander plays outfield for Miami. His 2008 season start was delayed by a back injury. He has batted 298/434/543 with 7 homers and 27RBI over 28 games since his return. While he currently plays RF, his size/range may lead to a future move to 1B. Number 9 is too early. I believe he’ll be drafted in close proximity to Alonso in the 20-25 range of the draft.
5. Ike Davis (also OF & LHP) -The 21- year old is the son of former major league RHP Ron Davis. He is the starting 1B for the Arizona State Sun Devils but also closes for them from time to time. At the plate, he’s hitting 412/483/843 with 15 home runs and 62 RBI over 38 games. While on the mound, he’s 4-1 with 4 saves, 2.66 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 26K over 20 1/3 innings of work. His future is in the field where scouts see him as a 1B or corner outfielder with above average hitting and power. Not a gamechanger but a solid contributor. If he’s around for the Nationals second round pick #56, he’d be a great value but odds are he’ll go towards the end of the first round or someplace in the supplemental first.
6. Brett Wallace (also 3B) -Many scouts view the 21-year old Wallace as the best pure hitter in the draft. His mix of plate discipline, ability to make contact, and extra base power make him an intriguing option. Another instance of back-to-back teammates, Wallace starts at 3B for the Sun Devils where he is currently hitting 390/529/692 with 11 homers and 50RBI in 39 games. The belief is his future is at 1B given his footwork/range. Much like Davis, Wallace is likely going to be off the board before the Nationals select in the second round but like Davis would be a great value pick at #56.
7. Allan Dykstra (also 3B) -The 20-year old lefthanded hitter is currently hitting 328/531/657 with 12 homers and 32 RBI in 41 games for Wake Forest. From PG Crosschecker (PGCC), “[He] has big-time raw power. But he also has a very discerning eye and an excellent overall approach to hitting. He has learned to hit with more authority to the opposite field and become less passive at the plate. He is also an adequate defender at first base, and excels at picking balls out of the dirt.” Dykstra could very well be available at #56.
8. David Cooper (also OF) -The 21-year old Cooper is the starting first baseman for the Cal Bears. The lefty is currently hitting 392/481/778 with 16 homers and 47RBI. Per PGCC, “Cooper can do just about everything you could ask for with the bat, whether it be hit for average, hit for power or get on base.” He could stick at first base or move to a corner outfield slot or possibly a future as a DH. A team could grab him for his bat alone in the supplemental first but I’m guessing he comes off the board in the middle of the second round.
9. Shane Peterson (also OF) -The 20-year old Peterson is the youngest non-high schooler on this list. The lefty is hitting 373/471/585 for Long Beach State this season. His future position is still open to debate, he doesn’t look like he’ll have enough power for 1B but might fit the mold of a solid corner outfielder. This is the point where the drop off starts. Peterson looks like a mid-third rounder. I’m not sure if it’s a value pick for the Nationals at #87.
10. Jared Bolden (also OF) -I’m going to go with somewhat of a local guy, the 21-year old 1B/OF plays for Virginia Commonwealth. He his currently hitting 323/408/535 with four homers and 10/12 stolen bases. Once again from PGCC, “Bolden has a quality swing with bat speed and power potential … He also has above-average speed.” He’s a late fourth rounder. If he is still on the board in round 5 or alter for the Nats, he might be worth a look.