Jim Callis of Baseball America takes his first stab at a mock draft …
- Rays - SS Tim Beckham out of HS in GA
- Pirates - 3B Pedro Alvarez from Vanderbilt
- Royals - CA Buster Posey from Florida State
- Orioles - LHSP Brian Matusz from San Diego
- Giants - 1B Justin Smoak from South Carolina
- Marlins - CA Kyle Skipworth out of HS in CA
- Reds - RHSP Aaron Crow from Missouri
- White Sox - SS Gordon Beckham from Georgia
- Nationals - 1B Yonder Alonso from Miami
here’s what he has to say about the Nats
Washington GM Jim Bowden loves to draft upside, and California high school outfielder/righthander Aaron Hicks could be mighty tempting. Advanced pitching is a greater concern, and the Nationals could have their choice of the second tier. Scheppers might have been the frontrunner before he got hurt, so that could leave Tulane righthander Shooter Hunt and Eastern Kentucky lefty Christian Friedrich if the Nats go pitching. In the end, Alonso’s bat may be too good to pass up.
The only other name on the board at this point worthy of consideration beyond Alonso, Scheppers, Hunt and Friedrich is HS 1B Eric Hosmer.
Andrew | 16-May-08 at 3:22 pm | Permalink
Hosmer’s dropping because of Boras/signability, no? He’s the one I’d like to see them take, but I don’t see the Nats playing that game.
Tofu Dog | 16-May-08 at 3:35 pm | Permalink
I thought Alvarez was asking the big money as well. Are the Pirates going to pay it? If not then this is a stretch as well. It is looking as if Skipworth may not make it to us, but Yonder Alonso is no slouch. He might be quick to the majors and you have to love his OBP. Chris Marrero’s travails this year might make Yonder a great pick for the Nats.
Hendo | 16-May-08 at 3:49 pm | Permalink
Spend the first pick on a 1B?
Even if the dude is the next Keith Hernandez, this team has a lot of other needs.
Brian Oliver | 16-May-08 at 3:57 pm | Permalink
Hendo - The draft in MLB is unlike the NFL or NBA. With only one high pick, the Nationals have to go BPA … best player available, regardless of position.
This mock draft is a near worst case scenario for the Nats, in my opinion. They are left with choosing another college pitcher (none of them are really hot prospects … solid guys but not special) or a 1B from college (Alonso) or HS (Hosmer).
I’ll reiterate my hopes that the White Sox pass on GBeckham
John | 16-May-08 at 4:07 pm | Permalink
I’d actually love it if this happened up through #8, because it would more likely mean Hosmer would be the pick at #9. I just don’t see them taking Alonso(who can’t be moved from 1B). Smoak or Hosmer are athletic enough to move to LF.
I don’t think that mock will happen though. I think that one of the Beckhams or Crow will be there for the Nats and that will be the pick. If I had to bet money on it based on all I’ve read, I’d say Crow right now.
Greg | 16-May-08 at 4:12 pm | Permalink
Starting to hop on the Crow bandwagon a bit. Either way, I’d like to see the consensus BPA taken at #9. From what Callis writes about Pittsburgh, seems unlikely they’ll pass on Alvarez, I think their fans may riot if they do.
Hendo | 16-May-08 at 4:12 pm | Permalink
Yes, I know… you don’t want to draft second-round talent in the first round (and have to cough up a first-round signing bonus to boot).
I just look at that flock of 1Bs and cringe a little, that’s all.
Agreed re your hopes on G. Beckham.
Brian Oliver | 16-May-08 at 4:14 pm | Permalink
John - Hosmer is nice … his demands if true are concerning. It’s not so much the money as it is if he wants a major league contract. I don’t like the idea of giving HSers major league deals. It makes teams rush development.
I just would prefer a college guy there. The Nationals have taken their share of prep guys already. Aside from TBeckham, the HS guys are gambles (all HS guys are gambles more than their college counterparts, I know). I just don’t see the ‘no doubt about it’ HS guy.
If Crow slides there, that would be great. Yes I know the Nationals have loaded up on pitching but Crow is the top arm in the draft in my estimation. Getting him at #9 would be a steal.
If TBeckham is there, I would be floored. Happy but floored. One of those eight teams has to take him.
John | 16-May-08 at 4:22 pm | Permalink
Brian: I haven’t seen Tim Beckham, but Hosmer’s bat is off the charts. I know he’s using metal, but when he hits it out guys don’t even turn to look. Plus all the comments I’ve read from people who know a lot more about it than me say he’s the best HS bat they’ve seen. He works hard and is 28 for 28 in SB the last two seasons. He’s #1 on my list and I’m hoping they’ll surprise me and take him. He does have the relationship with Marrero’s family. I think Boras and the money demands will keep it from happening unless he’s by far the best player.
I’d be very excited with either Beckham, although Gordon looks so small that part of me thinks he won’t translate that power to the pros.
Crow is awesome. He’s probably the real #1 to be fair. As a fan, I just really want a bat. I’d be extremely excited with Crow or Hosmer, and pretty excited about a Beckham.
John | 16-May-08 at 4:29 pm | Permalink
Brian: I’d be stunned about TBeck too. However, it seems more believable if you buy into what teams seem to want.
TB- Posey
Pit-Matusz/Crow
KC-Alvarez
Balt- Matusz/Crow
SF-Smoak/Crow
Fla-Skipworth
Cinn: GBeck/Crow/Kelly
Chi: Wallace/Hunt
Not saying it’ll be like this, but if the right buzz proves true, you could see this:
TB-Posey
Pitt-Matusz
KC-Alvarez
Balt-Crow
SF-Smoak
FLA-Skipworth
Cinn-Kelly
Chi-Wallace
Again, this is highly unlikely, but I’ve have read various reports about these teams and these players. I agree with you that TBeck has to be taken… it would be too good to be true.
Tofu Dog | 16-May-08 at 4:46 pm | Permalink
Kasten is not taking Hosmer and he is smart not to since he is going to play games with whoever picks him. I don’t see any chance either of the Beckhams or Crow will make it because they are signable, reliable picks.
Skipworth seems more likely to fall through the cracks and is a big favorite with Boone. If he falls to us we will take him. That seems more likely than Beckham or Crow. I think Alonso makes sense for the team because he is farther along on the development chart. He looks like he is 26-27 and since he was born in Cuba he may well be a little older. I don’t see the logjam of 30-homer guys playing 1b for us anywhere in the system. Marrero is only 19 and has two very important years to go. Alonso could play 1b in 2009.
Ric | 16-May-08 at 5:14 pm | Permalink
Collier would be a much better pick than Alonso. Huge upside.
With pick #9, I’m hoping for best available player of: (1) Alvarez, (2) T. Beckham, (3) Matusz, (4) G. Beckham, (5) Skipworth, (6) Posey, (7) Hosmer, (8) Crow, (9) Collier, (10) Hicks, (11) Freidrich and (12) Hunt. I’d pass on Smoak and Alonso. With pick #55 or 87, I’m hoping for Jacob Thompson of UVA.
Andrew S | 16-May-08 at 5:43 pm | Permalink
Ric, what do you have against Smoak and Alonso?
I wonder if they would consider Wallace #9. He can RAKE.
Ryan Zimmerman | 16-May-08 at 5:51 pm | Permalink
It wouldnt come to me as surprise if we pick Alonso, he knows how to swing the bat for sure and he isnt that much slow either (he can still bases). Our scouting staff might be really high on him even though we are starting to be loaded at 1b.
John | 16-May-08 at 6:29 pm | Permalink
I’ll be stunned and extremely disappointed if they take Alonso and block Marrero. I don’t see it happening.
Andrew: I could see that. They could move him to the OF.
John | 16-May-08 at 6:30 pm | Permalink
Tofu: Crow is a Boras client and is rumored to want a major league deal.
Ted | 16-May-08 at 7:34 pm | Permalink
Thanks John. I hate to block Marrero as well, but we need offense now and picking another high school bat that is at least three years away or taking another college arm given how weak our position players are top to bottom seems wrong headed imho. Maybe I am overstating the weakness of our minors offensively, but I don’t see a big bat that is close to ready. Regardless how good Burgess and Marrero are they are young. A big bat is the glaring weakness to me and that is what I would address with the nine pick.
Ric | 16-May-08 at 8:20 pm | Permalink
Andrew S - both seem a bit overrated; Smoak is inconsistent (including mediocre summer in the Cape league with wood bats) and there have been questions about Alonso’s true age. Both are limited to first, Nats already have Johnson, Dmitri and Marrero at first (so not a serious need) and I just think better value is there above them. I’d be happy to get either of them in the lower half of the first round.
John | 16-May-08 at 9:13 pm | Permalink
Ted: I can understand how you feel, but this team is not going to be good anytime soon and if it is, it won’t be because of who they take in this draft.
I believe you take the highest ceiling guy in this situation. Hosmer has a much much higher ceiling than Alonso. Plus you’re not blocking Marrero(I believe Hosmer can play OF). You’d have Marrero, Burgess, and Hosmer all growing together and coming up at about the same time. This team is building to be good for the long haul.
We as fans may suffer a year or two longer, but the wait should be worth it. Look no further than the Capitals to see what building responsibly can do. They have a great, young team that should be good for a long time.
John | 16-May-08 at 9:17 pm | Permalink
Ric: Smoak was actually outstanding in the Cape in 2006. I believe he led the league in homers. You may be thinking of last summer with Team USA.
I hadn’t heard about the age thing with Alonso… interesting.
Scott | 16-May-08 at 10:14 pm | Permalink
Can someone help me understand why baseball draft picks are not traded or included in trades the way it is handled in other sports?
Brian Oliver | 17-May-08 at 7:34 am | Permalink
Scott - One reason is because MLB is afraid that smaller market teams will end up being forced to trade their high draft picks as players’ demands will be too high for some teams to pay.
Scott | 17-May-08 at 9:21 am | Permalink
Brian - thanks - that actually seems reasonable. Otherwise, the Yankees would own one of the top picks every year. It’s one thing MLB has gotten right.
Great coverage of the draft. Your quality coverage and attention to the comment section seems to attract many reasoned comments from other draft junkies. It seems to be a labor of love for you. I am among the group that appreciates your effort and enjoys reading regularly.
Ric | 17-May-08 at 11:14 am | Permalink
John - You’re right, I’m thinking of Team USA. Sorry about that.
Andrew S | 17-May-08 at 12:46 pm | Permalink
We are talking as if Marrero is a sure thing…he isn’t. I’d still be suprised if he doesn’t start for us someday, however you must draft the bat. Don’t worry about position on draft-day.
I still hope they take Gordon Beckham if he is there #9, assuming the top pitchers aren’t.
Ryan Sullivan | 17-May-08 at 1:28 pm | Permalink
Off Topic, but I thought you all might have some interest: I just got back from watching Sean Black( our 2nd round pick two years ago that spurned slot to go to Seton Hall). He was pitching against Georgetown over at Shirley Povich field. I think we should be pretty happy that he decided to go to college, he does not appear to be anything too special. He went 3 2/3 and gave up three runs, which may have been worse if he hadn’t picked off two runners. He gave up a home run to right center that must have been 390-400 feet and the wind was blowing in.
He has a nice FB 92-93 on the gun according to the Seton Hall kids shooting their gun, but the ball is flat with little movement, and he throws a 12-6 curve ball that he has trouble throwing for strikes. He throws just two pitches and does not have great command of either. He tends to overthrow the FB which leads it to stay up in the zone.
Against teams in the big east, he overpowers the lineup the first time threw because of sheer velocity, but he really struggles the second time threw because there is little deception with his stuff and he tends to get behind in the count.
Maybe I am being a little tough on him, but after watching him today, I know he must be kicking himself by not taking that money.
John | 17-May-08 at 5:13 pm | Permalink
Andrew: Who do you think they can draft that’s a more “sure thing” than Marrero, whom coaches in two different leagues named as the best prospect in those leagues. Don’t be fooled by his numbers he’s a 19-year old in what’s very much a pitcher’s league.
Marrero is the team’s best hitting prospect and you simply do not draft a player to block him unless that player is by far the best on the board.
Andrew S | 17-May-08 at 6:34 pm | Permalink
John, like you said, he is 19. He isn’t a sure thing.
Also, yes Marrero is the teams best hitting prospect, but when you draft a player you don’t draft to block someone else, you draft to get the best talent in your system regardless of anything else.
John | 17-May-08 at 6:39 pm | Permalink
“Marrero is the team’s best hitting prospect and you simply do not draft a player to block him unless that player is by far the best on the board.”
Unless the player is by far the best, you don’t block Marrero. If it’s close between two or more players you take the player at the other position… and Marrero is more of a sure thing than anyone they’ll likely be drafting.
IMO, the only player at 1B that you could argue taking is Smoak and there’s a chance you could move him to LF. Hosmer can definitely move to LF.
I like Smoak, but if he’s the pick I’ll be disappointed if it’s over someone like Crow or Hosmer.
Scott B. | 19-May-08 at 7:58 pm | Permalink
Ditto Scott’s comment. I especially enjoy the quality coverage provided on your site. I too very much appreciate your effort. Question: If you are Nat’s management, would you shade toward picking the ‘college guy’ (Smoak or Beckham) instead of Hosmer per the prospects for a shorter stint in the minors? Also, could someone please comment re the high schooler Hicks? Is he a good pick at 9?
Brian Oliver | 19-May-08 at 9:18 pm | Permalink
Scott B - Thanks for the compliment.
All things being equal, I’d lean towards the college guy. The Nationals have put together several drafts centered around HS bats and it would be nice to balance it out some.