The Nationals pick in the MLB Mock Draft came up and keeping the rules of the draft in mind:
Remember this isn’t picking what player you would want per se’, but who you think your team is most likely to pick
My selection for the Nationals was University of Miami 1B Yonder Alonso. While RHP Aaron Crow was my personal preference of the names available there. I believe the Nationals are going to focus on the best college bat available.
BBA Scouting Report … “Alonso has always hit for average and power, and he is considered one of the most professional hitters in this year’s draft. Blessed with superior plate discipline, Alonso has a great strikeout-to-walk ratio and has an advanced approach. He swings lefthanded and has power to all fields, making consistent contact. In the field, Alonso is limited to first base but plays the position well. He is a below-average runner with adequate arm strength, but he should be an above-average defender. Alonso’s professionalism and makeup are both strengths as well, making him a safe pick to reach the major leagues.”
PG Crosschecker Scouting Report … “He has a quick bat and makes consistent hard contact. Alonso not only has a beautiful, compact, balanced swing and can center balls as a matter of routine, he has a patient, disciplined approach to hitting. Overall, he walked 100 times in 2007 (64 at Miami, a league-high 36 at Brewster), while striking out on a combined 56 occasions. He has yet to tap fully into his power potential, but he hits bombs in BP and drives balls hard to the gaps during games. He should develop into more of a legit home run threat as he turns on balls and lifts them more consistently. At this point in his development, he ranks behind only current big leaguers Pat Burrell and Ryan Braun as the best all-around hitters Miami has produced in the last two decades. Though he has solid arm strength with carry and has worked out at third base in pre-game drills and caught in the bullpen on occasion, Alonso doesn’t take his defense as seriously as his offense. He is pretty much limited to first base as he’s just an average athlete who needs to get himself in better shape. But he has good glove actions around the first-base bag, soft hands and good footwork.”
The more I looked at the mock draft board, the more I realized that while Crow is arguably the “best player available,” the distance between him and Alonso is not that vast. If Crow were leaps and bounds ahead of the field, I would expect the Nationals to draft another pitcher. But I believe there are enough questions about him for the Nationals to move on Alonso. And while Hosmer might have a bigger upside, the Nationals will not pay the huge bonus demands for a higher risk/reward player when there is a “safer” comparable bat on the board.
I understand people will questions drafting a 1B when Chris Marrero is already in the organization. The Nationals depth of power bats is shallow. Aside from Marrero and Michael Burgess, there are not any premium power bats in the organization. And both of those players are high schoolers with time needed to develop. Alonso offers the Nationals a nearer term option with more of a track record than either of those two.
Brian Oliver | 30-May-08 at 6:03 am | Permalink
Flame away ;)
John | 30-May-08 at 7:42 am | Permalink
Brutal pick IMO. It forces you to trade Marrero (or Alonso) and you left two high ceiling players in Hosmer and Collier that could play other positions. You’re also leaving a potential dominant starting pitcher on the board.
I think with the ninth overall pick you have to get an impact player at position where you don’t already have one, unless the player you’re taking is by far the best. That’s not the case here. Alonso can’t hit leftys and is lazy defensively.
Brian Oliver | 30-May-08 at 7:45 am | Permalink
John - I would have selected Aaron Crow but the marching orders were who I thought the Nationals were going to target.
I really don’t put much stock into the Marrero is already their 1B argument. These things have a way of working themselves out.
John | 30-May-08 at 8:04 am | Permalink
Yes. It will be worked out by them taking Collier:)
We’ll see what happens. I’ll be very surprised and disappointed if Alonso is the pick, unless they think he can play LF, which no one else does.
I can’t wait until Thursday.
Chris | 30-May-08 at 8:25 am | Permalink
You dont draft in the top 10 worrying about who you already have. And as much as I love him, hes hitting 235 (i know hes young etc. etc).
That said I dont think we can pass on Hosmer. Why wont they pay a big bonus? Moving into a new stadium in a big market with a last place team? Taking the cheap option is not going to go over well
Brian Oliver | 30-May-08 at 8:29 am | Permalink
Chris - Agreed. If you asked me to make the pick, I’d have gone Aaron Crow then Eric Hosmer. I understand your point about being perceived as cheap going with Alonso. While there is not much of a track record to go on, the Nationals have not gone over slot with their first couple of picks. But have spent above slot later in the draft.
John | 30-May-08 at 8:34 am | Permalink
Actually, you do draft top 10 worrying about what you have. If it’s close you don’t take a player that will block your top prospect unless that player is by far the best on the board.
Even forgetting Marrero, Alonso is not the best prospect on the board. .245 against leftys in a hitter’s league is awful. He can’t play defense and can’t be moved.
estuartj | 30-May-08 at 8:42 am | Permalink
Based on virtually no information what so ever I think the organization is still sufficiently focused on Pitching First that the pick would be (based on the scenario) Crow.
If Gordon Beckham were to drop to #9 I think they would be very tempted to break from this mold, he would be the BPA AND would fill an organizational need, but otherwise I would put my money on Crow.
Brian Oliver | 30-May-08 at 8:47 am | Permalink
estuartj - I hope you are right
Chris N | 30-May-08 at 9:00 am | Permalink
Somebody stole my name!
I’m always lukewarm with taking a 1B in these sorts of situations. If you do that, the guy’s gotta hit his way to the majors. Unless he’s going to be a legit power bat, he’s not going to help the team. If I need a first baseman for cheap, I’d rather take my risks with someone like Dmitri. Look at Mike Jacobs. He came cheaply, too.
That’s the problem with them having moved Marrero. I understand that he’s an atrocious fielder, but by conceding him being able to ever play the OF, you’ve raised the bar for what you need his bat to do for him to break out in the majors.
Chris | 30-May-08 at 9:07 am | Permalink
Baseball prospects and draft picks are such a crapshoot that you always take best player available
Chris N | 30-May-08 at 9:08 am | Permalink
I won’t disagree with that. I just think that the 1B is rarely the best player available, when you consider the positional aspect.
I’d rather take my chances with a sluggo later in the draft and hope the bat develops… really shoot craps later.
Brian Oliver | 30-May-08 at 9:14 am | Permalink
Chris N - That is typically the case, but this year there are a large number of first round first baseman.
Aside from the Beckhams, there are not any top half of the first round middle infielders.
Pedro Alvarez and maybe Brett Wallace are the only 3B (and Wallace is 1B bound)
It’s a weaker than normal OF class.
Posey & Skipworth are the only catchers (maybe Jason Castro as an outlier).
Brian Oliver | 30-May-08 at 9:23 am | Permalink
There is a good article in the latest issue of Baseball America about how this year’s draft has an unusually large number of first baseman who profile out in the first fifty picks.
Baseball America lists six 1B in their top 40 overall prospects. Throw in Pedro Alvarez and Brett Wallace who are 3B rumored to be 1B in the pros and Kyle Skipworth who some scouts believe will be moved from behind the plate to 1B and nearly 25% of the top 40 are 1B or 1B-in-training
A DC Wonk | 30-May-08 at 9:34 am | Permalink
Why has nobody mentioned Bill Rhinehart (which is also why I would have not taken a 1B). Certainly, Rhinehart is not a shoe-in, but neither is Alonso. I’d have gone for Crow. Yes, the Nats biggest needs are bats, but I’m a firm believer in “you can never have too much good pitching” — and if we do ever get “too much”, pitching prospects are worth their weight in gold as trade bait.
So, serious question: why in this discussion of mock drafts, has nobody mentioned the name Rhinehart yet?
Brian Oliver | 30-May-08 at 9:37 am | Permalink
Part of the reason is Rhinehart’s age and ceiling. He’ll be 23 this November and is playing in Hagerstown where is certainly older than the average competition. Yes, he needs to be promoted but his upside is limited.
A DC Wonk | 30-May-08 at 9:44 am | Permalink
Another naive question — why do we say “his upside is limited” when he graduated only last year?
He hit .372 in his senior year of college just last year, and this year he’s hitting .335 in Hagerstown. (SA: .548)
Isn’t it awfully early to say he has limited upside?
Or is there something else I don’t know? (Which is a big possibility!)
Tofu Dog | 30-May-08 at 9:46 am | Permalink
Brian, I could not agree more. Alonso was so hot a week ago in the ACC championship series some had him going higher and us getting Smoak. That works too especially since Smoak is a switch-hitter.
Two things I believe are pertinent. First I think everyone should read Bowden’s comments on the MLB site from a day or so ago where he talked about trading minor leaguers for the talent the big league club needs now. The equation is about putting the best team on the field at Nationals Park as soon as possible. Marrero and Burgess are great, but this organization has NO power bat any where near ready to contribute. We all go to the games and know that the lack of power is killing us. For Bowden and Kasten this is not a matter of being patient while they wait for guys at Potomac and Hagerstown, it is about a bottom line that feeds the organization from top to bottom. Second, there is Maxwell’s injury which underscores how uncertain the road is from the minors to the majors. Aaron Hicks and Zach Collier are just too far away to make sense for an organization so thin at the power positions. Larry Broadway is the best example of a crying need the Nationals should address with the ninth pick. We have toolsy young guys enough in Hagerstown. What we need are a few good men.
Brian Oliver | 30-May-08 at 10:01 am | Permalink
DCW - There are a couple of things about Rhinehart to remember. The fact he was undrafted in his junior year and drafted as a senior out of college in the 11th round tends to paint a picture of what scouts, in general, think about a player.
Rhinehart has done everything asked of him and more but I’m basing the ceiling comment on what historically happens to players drafted as seniors later in a draft.
Scouting is an inexact science and the scouts could all be wrong and he could develop into a major league regular like another 11th rounder … John Lannan.
Greg | 30-May-08 at 10:07 am | Permalink
Was watching the Miami game a few days back and the color guys mentioned that Alonso was/is being mentored by A-Rod, including workouts that start at 5am in the offseason. Can’t be a bad thing I guess.
Pilchard | 30-May-08 at 10:24 am | Permalink
Sounds like many here disagree, but I have an inkling that the Nats are going to take a high school bat with their first pick.
A DC Wonk | 30-May-08 at 10:26 am | Permalink
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that Rhinehart is better than Alanso. I was just mystified that his name hasn’t even been brought into the discussion. When a guy is just one year out of college and he’s hitting .333 (.386 in his last 10 games, .459 when RISP), and needs to be promoted — I tend to think that speaks louder than the fact he was drafted in the 11th round.
But I know I have a lot to learn, as I’ve never followed the minors before (before discovering your site last year)
But, sheesh, he ought to deserve a mention from time to time, eh?
Marcus | 30-May-08 at 10:45 am | Permalink
Alonso would be an interesting pick but I just don’t see the star potential in him that I see in Hosmer and Smoak. Since we have a top 10 pick I think we should be going for a higher cieling guy than Alonso.
Bowden has always talked about the you can’t have enough pitching mantra and if “arguably” the best pitching prospect falls to us I don’t see us passing on Crow. Unless its for Smoak(has more power than Alonso) or Hosmer(higher cieling than Alonso and Smoak, plus he might be able to play the OF).
Mark | 30-May-08 at 10:47 am | Permalink
A DC wonk - Bill has been asked about quite a bit as of late. He stands out right now because he’s clobbering low A ball pitching, and should be promoted to Harrisburg - he could probably be competitive at Columbus right now, too. But when Marrero is in front of you, it’s hard to go anywhere. With that, I feel that Bill will likely be traded or will have to change positions if he is to be promoted.
Hoagie | 30-May-08 at 11:22 am | Permalink
I have an inkling that Alonso is going to turn into an Andres Galaragga-type bat. Not based on anything, but it sounds good in your mind, doesn’t it?
Regardless, Alonso would be a decent pick. Great job to Brian, as Alonso could very possibly be the Nats pick (has been in a decent number of mock drafts).
John | 30-May-08 at 11:47 am | Permalink
Bowden was not talking about Burgess and Marrero when he made those comments. He’s talking about guys like King and Souza (if he stays at 3rd) and whichever pitchers are considered surplus like Glenn Gibson was last year. He specifically stated that Gibson was dealt because of the three leftys.
No GM in any sport wants to block their top prospects. If Alonso was by far the best player, then yes you take him. He’s not even close being the clearcut best player here… even Brian had Crow rated higher.
As far as immediate impact, you are better of signing some like Dunn. Alonso will need time in the minors and at best would be only two years ahead of Marrero(I personally think one year) anyway.
Bowden, Kasten, and company preach development and the future. They’re not going to hurt their future by blocking who they feel is their best prospect. It’s simply not going to happen.
I promise you, you’ll hear something along the lines of “We think he can play LF” if they draft Smoak, Alonso, or Hosmer.
Ryan Sullivan | 30-May-08 at 12:29 pm | Permalink
I just see too many flaws with Alonso to take him in the top 10… there are concerns/questions about his age, he has a bad track record against even mediocre college lefties, and he has a bad body (I am just hearing Billy Beane in my ear about selling jeans). Those are enough questions for me to pass on him at #9.
Quite frankly, I have watched both Smoak and Alonso over a dozen times apiece, and comparing them is not fair to Smoak, as he is a superior player and prospect. Smoak has the potential to be a gold glove type 1B, whereas Alonso will have to work to be any better than average. Smoak is a switch hitter with a better body and probably more natural power. Plus he comes to bat to the theme song to the Dukes of Hazzard, who wouldn’t want that in Nats Park.
I like Alonso, contrary to what I have written, but I see him more as a 15-20 pick, than a top 10. I see Alonso’s ceiling that of Conor Jackson this year (.300 BA, 20-25 HRs) whereas I see Smoak’s ceiling as that of Mark Teixeria.
Brian Oliver | 30-May-08 at 12:34 pm | Permalink
Ryan - Did you see that the Giants had opted for Smoak in the mock draft?
Smoak is a no-brainer pick over Alonso.
Ryan Sullivan | 30-May-08 at 12:38 pm | Permalink
I misread an earlier post. Sorry about that… anyways, lets hope Smoak drops.
A DC Wonk | 30-May-08 at 1:51 pm | Permalink
Mark — I guess I’m just being stubborn in my view that performance matters. Yeah, I know Rhinehart was a low draft pick and Marrero was a high draft pick — but why is it gospel that Marrero is better than Rhinehart? If Marrero is stuck at Potomac, then give Rhinehart a try at H-burg — or have him be DH a Potomac to see if he can hit that league’s hitting.
Perhaps I just sympathize too much for the little guy — but when a low draft pick comes in and is burning the league’s pitching — why do we still have such a poor opinion of him? Is “11th round” going to be stuck on him for years? (And, thanks Brian, for pointing out that Lannan was an 11th round also)
Chris | 30-May-08 at 2:20 pm | Permalink
Im not getting excited about Rhinehart beacuse he is 23 and playing in a league with mainly 20 and 21 year olds. I know its not his fault but until he proves he can hit at a higher level (more in line with his age) he will be doubted
A DC Wonk | 30-May-08 at 2:59 pm | Permalink
Chris — I agree. Note that I said above that I’m not saying Rhinehart is better. I’m saying that I don’t understand why we’re so certain that he doesn’t have big “upside potential.” I’d like to see him top out before we claim that.
Either way, he can’t prove he’s good until he gets a chance. But his way is blocked by a guy hitting around .240 in Potomac (Admittedly, Marrero is just shy of age 20)
Dick | 30-May-08 at 3:06 pm | Permalink
Boy, if a mock draft can generate this much enthusiasm, I can’t wait ’til the real thing next week.
Re: Smoak vs. Alonso. The thing I don’t get about them is that I assume they play a reasonably similar schedule, even though SC is not an ACC school. Alonso’s OPS is 94 points higher than Smoak’s. That makes it unclear to me why Smoak is considered a superior hitter.
It is clear that there are no sure bets, even at #9, given the variety of choices people like. The key is to get someone, anyone who is a solid big-leaguer. Chris convinced me in earlier posts that you can’t draft a HS pitcher and meet that criteria. HS hitters are a little risky, too. I think Rizzo will go college, given his track record.
I like Shooter Hunt, for what it is worth. Dude has been unhittable this season.
Mark | 30-May-08 at 3:12 pm | Permalink
A DC Wonk - I feel there’s no one more deserving or needy of a promotion than Rhinehart. I think someone who is a major league talent would be putting up the kind of numbers Bill is putting up right now in low A - I can’t follow the “has little further potential” arguement either. He hasn’t faced better pitching yet so let’s give the guy a chance! I don’t get it, either. He’s clobbered every league so far. I hope we see some movement after the All-star break.
Pilchard | 30-May-08 at 3:13 pm | Permalink
Aaron Crow just pitched a masterpiece today for Missouri shutting out Ole Miss in the opening game of the NCAA baseball tourney. Crow struck out 10. Realize the Nats may not be looking for a pitcher with the first pick, but Crow helped his stock today.
Ryan Zimmerman | 30-May-08 at 8:19 pm | Permalink
Good job Bryan. Im seeing alot of fans aren’t liking your pick but I don’t see how Alonso would be a bad pick. He doesn’t have an athletic body and is a 1b but when you pick this early, you take the BPA. Alonso’s bat is intriguing to say the least. But, I could see the nats picking Crow or Matusz over guys like Alonso, Beckham, Smoak if they are available. I really dont see us taking a HS bat or pitcher (I will be very very surprised if we do) because we could take some gamble on HS players in later rounds, we have to take someone who can reach the majors a bit faster.
Andrew S | 30-May-08 at 10:45 pm | Permalink
Alonso has too many flaws at an unpremium position to be a top 10 pick. For example, he has a hard time hitting college lefties.
Brian I understand why YOU made this pick, so when I critisize it I am critisizing the org. (assuming they made this pick), not you.
I like Wallace, Crow, or Smoak if he is there. Hosmer too. I doubt Beckham is there, but if so, I’d take him. The first pick will be the “domino pusher” of the draft. Unlike last year, the first pick this year is unknown to us, leading us to make several different opinions on who follows the unknown.