On my commute home, I was listening to Nats GM Jim Bowden’s weekly appearance on 980’s The Sports Reporters. During the weekly demonstration of their lack of baseball knowledge, hosts Steve Czaban and Andy Pollin uncovered an interesting bit of news about injured RHP Chad Cordero.
When asked about the contractual status of Cordero, Bowden commented that he was still under team control but it was unlikely the Nats would tender him for the 2009 season (paraphrased).
Before anyone gets too off track (like Czaban & Pollin), here is a thumbnail of how a player’s contract is handled.
For this discussion, we are going to ignore the concept of options and focus strictly on service time and the contractual aspects. (We are also going to skip over Super 2 because it’s not germane to the point)
Once a player assumes a spot on the active roster (25-man from April to August 31 and up to 40-man in September), he begins accruing service time towards free agency. Any time spent on the active roster (or on the DL … important for Cordero [note: for those CBA nerds like me, correct me if I’m wrong about the 60-day & service time … it’s important]) counts towards this service time. From years 0 through the end of their 3rd season (ignoring Super 2), teams control the contract tendered to a player within the parameters of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (certain raises based on comparable service time, NOT necessarily performance).
Once a player reaches three years of service time and until they accrue at least six full years of service time, the contract is handled through the arbitration process. First, A club must offer contracts to players under its control by December 12. This in essence ties the player to the team for at least one more season. This must happen to prevent a player from becoming an immediate free agent (this is typically the non-tender stories you hear about).
Next, a player in this range of service time can accept the contract offer or if they are unhappy with the offer, request an arbitration hearing. Typically teams and players will continue negotiations during this period in hopes of avoiding arbitration. If no decision can be reached, the following steps happen (courtesy of Cot’s):
- In January, the player and the club each submit a salary figure for arbitration. The parties may continue to negotiate until the case goes before a three-person panel of professional arbitrators between Feb. 1-20.
- At the hearing, each party has one hour to argue its case and 30 minutes for rebuttal. The player is required to attend and generally represented by an agent. A club executive or attorney usually represents the club.
- Criteria the panel may consider include the player’s contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership, the club’s record and attendance, “special accomplishments,” the salaries of comparable players in his service-time class and, for players with less than 5 years of service, the class one year ahead of him. The parties may not refer to team finances, previous offers made during negotiations, comments from the press or salaries in other sports or occupations.
- The panel, without opinion, awards the player a one-year, non-guaranteed contract at one salary or the other. If the player is cut before the 16th day before the season begins (March 14, 2007), he is entitled only to 30 days’ termination pay. If the player is cut during spring training but after the 16th day before the season begins (between March 15 and March 31, 2007), he is entitled only to 45 days’ termination pay.
Now that I’ve got all of that out of the way, here is the deal with Cordero. Chief will have five plus years of service time at the conclusion of the 2008 season. This means the Nationals could still “control” his contract for the 2009 season, assuming they were to tender him a contract.
This is where Bowden’s comment comes into play. By suggesting that the Nationals would not tender him a contract, the Nats would in essence make him a free agent immediately.
Why would they do this?
Primarily it is because of Cordero’s current salary of $6.2M, his uncertain health over the next season plus, and the arbitration process. By tendering him a contract, the Nationals put themselves in a position where Cordero could request arbitration. And by the rules of arbitration, the Nats could offer him no less than 80% of what they paid him in 2008 or $4.96M (for the sticklers, his 2008 contract was not part of the arbitration process). Compounding this is the fact that Cordero will have enough service time at the end of the 2009 season (6+) to become eligible for major league free agency.
That’s an awful lot of money for a player rehabbing from labrum surgery. Surgery that has a recovery time of 12-18 months, meaning Chief’s return to the field (not necessarily the majors) is somewhere between July 2009 and spring training 2010. A player who could go anywhere he wants after the 2009 season.
Given that, the Nats are rightly cautious in tendering him a contract.
What this does not mean is that Cordero’s days as a National are over.
This is the point which Czaban and Pollin failed to grasp.
What I imagine is in the works is the Nationals working with Cordero to reach some sort of equitable arrangement where they do not have to pay him $5M for a 2009 season which may not be in the cards. The Nationals are likely looking for a discounted rate for the 2009 season with a team option for 2010. Basically a deal that will pay Cordero not to pitch in 2009 (or pitch very little) at a lower rate with the team able to recoup some performance in 2010 … at the very least.
It’s something that certainly deserves to be watched. But a point missed by the guys at WTEM.
Andrew F | 23-Jul-08 at 5:51 pm | Permalink
For all the clamoring that those donkeys don’t talk enough about the Nats, it is an unbelievably painful listen when they do.
MO Nats Fan | 23-Jul-08 at 5:54 pm | Permalink
Well the path is certainly open for our reliever prospects. I wonder how many of the current 7 bullpen residents will no longer be with us come opening day 2009…
Pilchard | 23-Jul-08 at 5:54 pm | Permalink
I heard the interview, and think its very possible that the Nats will non-tender Cordero. Bowden sounded bitter about the outcome of the previous arbitation process and did not seem at all interested into attempting a contact with Cordero.
Is Cordero the only current Nat property to have played for the Expos?
Nate | 23-Jul-08 at 5:56 pm | Permalink
Too late to revive those Cordero for Khalil Greene trade rumors?
Brian Oliver | 23-Jul-08 at 6:05 pm | Permalink
Pilchard - I think it would be shortsighted of the Nats to simply cut bait on Cordero. They are still responsible for the costs of his rehab per the CBA (unless another team were to pick it up). Why they wouldn’t find some mutually equitable two year deal where the Nats could try and get some value makes little sense to me.
Andrew S. | 23-Jul-08 at 6:15 pm | Permalink
Pilchard, there is also Ayala and Johnson from Montreal. …and Khalil Greene stinks ;)
Gal Revels in Pee | 23-Jul-08 at 6:25 pm | Permalink
Is it worth giving Cordero $5m for 2009? That’s the only question in re: tendering or non-tendering.
If you offer arbitration, then you are giving Cordero a 1 year $5m contract. Would anybody be happy with that?
Isn’t this what happened to Mark Prior last off season? Got non-tendered rather than take the Cubs to arbitration. He only got $1m to rehab his shoulder. Why would Cordero get more on the open market.
WebberDC | 23-Jul-08 at 6:28 pm | Permalink
@Pilchard - Ayala was an Expo.
@Brian - The problem with your scenario is that (a) the arbitration market for an injured player, especially one of Cordero’s prowess before the industry is no raise (believe me the clubs want to change this, but they do not have the intestinal fortitude to try that case). Thus, Cordero’s agent would likely take $6.2M right now for Chief to play/rehab for the Nats next year. I don’t think Bowden/Kasten/Lerner want to pay that, and I think they are right. Here’s why:
There are two likely scenarios here.
Chief does not pitch at all in ‘09 because of extended recovery or is ineffective because his arm is not fully healed. Under that scenario, the Nats would not want to pay him $6-9M more in ‘10.
Chief comes back, a la Rauch, and is good again. Under that scenario, Chief’s agents do not want Chief to be hamstrung by a below market deal for ‘10.
Therefore, under either scenario, one party has no incentive to do a 2 year deal. The costs of rehab are not $6M a year, and I’m sure a team can afford to pick Chief up, aftter he is non-tendered, and stash him away for a year at a price well-below $5M. If he is non-tendered, the Nats cannot sign him before May 15th. (Not inconceivable in this case)
Thus, Bowden is likely not bluffing on the non-tender and the Nats probably don’t want to pay Chief even $5M (the lowest number possible) to rehab next year and then leave for greener pastures. We do not need a closer that badly and he is no longer a trade piece.
BTW, you analysis of the CBA’s arbitration process is spot on.
MO Nats Fan | 23-Jul-08 at 6:53 pm | Permalink
Would Cordero be willing to risk being non-tendered and likely unemployed for ‘09 and then try to come back as a FA in ‘10 after not having pitched since ‘07?
Brian Oliver | 23-Jul-08 at 7:01 pm | Permalink
GRiP - I think the situations are slightly different. Prior was habitually injured while Cordero’s is a one time (yet significant) thing. I’d imagine there is some common ground to find.
Webber - You raise some interesting points and I see what you are saying. One point though, I’m prety sure that May 15 rule is now gone in the new CBA. He can be re-signed by the Nats before that date if non-tendered. I agree that Bowden is not bluffing on the non-tender. The Nats should non-tender him to prevent a $6M outlay for rehab. I am viewing it much more as a mutually beneficial deal. Chief gets some multi year stability with a nominal investment in 2009 … say $2M with a team option for 2010 at a comparable rate to what he would have received in arbitration if he went through it … say $6M with a $2M buyout.
Worst case, the Nats pay $4M for a guy who is done. Cordero gets a pretty good salary to rehab his injury.
Best case, the Nats pay $8M for the one good season of Cordero in 2010 which would be roughly what he would have received in 2009 with no injury this year.
There is certainly some give & take and Cordero would have to want to stick with the Nats.
My read of this situation was more based on Bowden’s clearly audible frustration with Pollin/Czaban in discussing the situation.
Andrew S. | 23-Jul-08 at 7:19 pm | Permalink
I read back when this came out that Chad is supposed to start throwing again in November, so should face live batters in March, which would put him for a return during the first week of May. Optimistically. and I would never take a closer to arbitration if I was a GM. Especially a young one like Chad. Nats should have signed him to a fair deal after 2006.
MO Nats Fan | 23-Jul-08 at 7:25 pm | Permalink
Off topic, but does anyone know why E-Boni isn’t starting for Columbus tonight?
Nationals Fan @ Fire Jim Bowden | 23-Jul-08 at 7:46 pm | Permalink
Here’s one detail I haven’t been able to find an answer to: in the context of service time, what’s a “year?” Is it 162 regular season games? Is it actually 365 calendar days? Is it the season counted from Opening Day till the end of the regular season? Till the end of the playoffs?
Brian Oliver | 23-Jul-08 at 7:58 pm | Permalink
172 days (actual honest to goodness calendar days on a 25-man roster [or 15/60 day DL]) = one year of service time
Nationals Fan @ Fire Jim Bowden | 23-Jul-08 at 8:15 pm | Permalink
And those days have to come during the regular season? Does the active roster just essentially not exist during the off-season?
Brian Oliver | 23-Jul-08 at 8:42 pm | Permalink
Correct. Just the regular season. Not the post season. Not the off-season. Not spring training.
Nationals Fan @ Fire Jim Bowden | 23-Jul-08 at 9:01 pm | Permalink
Thanks! You have no idea how many Google returns I’ve clicked on to figure this out. It’s a stupid little detail but it’s truly kept me up nights. Now I can sleep better. NFA rocks!!
Mark L | 23-Jul-08 at 9:01 pm | Permalink
Another thing to keep in mind is the advancement in elbow surgery as opposed to shoulder surgery. Tommy John surgery has a 90% success rate now. I heard a famous surgeon liken it to fixing a door hinge.
Shoulder surgery is infinitely more complex and has a much much lower success rate.
There’s a chance the ‘Chief’ has thrown his last meaningful pitch. Remember, he did top out at 90-91 when completely healthy.
Tom | 23-Jul-08 at 10:15 pm | Permalink
I is how players get paid, only during the playing season. Playoff time doesn’t even count.
I believe Jim was playing with fire by being so open about this because Cordero has been one of the team’s feature players. Their other feature player Ryan Zimmerman will be watching how the team treats his friend and realize how baseball really is a business and a players has to get his while the can . . . .
A team can be old school or it can be new school like Milwaukee, Tampa, NY Mets. Players know where they want to play after six years.
Tom | 23-Jul-08 at 10:24 pm | Permalink
Why is new kid not playing yet?
Showcasing Reese at 2B?
Mark L | 23-Jul-08 at 10:37 pm | Permalink
Wait a minute on Zimmerman, he was offered a hefty multyear contract similiar to what Ryan Braun (who’s a better player) signed for, and turned it down. He shown no inclination to make any concession to stay with the Nats.
Whatever happens with Zimmerman, if he doesn’t stay with the Nats long term, it’s entirely on him. At this point, his numbers are all trending down anyway, even with the discounted injury season.
Tofu Dog | 23-Jul-08 at 10:38 pm | Permalink
Does anyone have the patience to explain to me why we would not take the money and sign a Scott Downs or some other proven bullpen guy for two years at $5 million and have something worthwhile as opposed to hoping Chad Cordero can make it back to being the ineffectual closer he was the past two years. Where is the Moneyball Brian who says anybody can close?
Phillip | 23-Jul-08 at 10:52 pm | Permalink
Thanks for the run-down Brian. Greatly appreciate the time it took for you to explain it all.
Dave at BFBB | 23-Jul-08 at 11:40 pm | Permalink
closers grow on trees (see: Rauch, Jon). non-tender Chief. Love the guy, but we don’t need to pay him to rehab when someone will seize the opportunity (a la Rauch).
Wooden U. Lykteneau | 24-Jul-08 at 12:03 am | Permalink
Exactly. The idea that a closer is somehow different than any other reliever is pure ignorance. To paraphrase the late Dick Radatz: “A pitcher’s job is to throw strikes. Period.” Any reliever that consistently does that against either LHBs or RHBs can finish a ballgame and earn one of the most overrated statistics, the save.
RD | 24-Jul-08 at 1:28 am | Permalink
A torn labrum ended my baseball career, for all intents and purposes.
Missed a year and a half and when I came back, still didn’t have the velocity I previously had. I would randomly dial it up to 87 but was more consistently about 83-84. Down from 89-91.
For a right hander that doesn’t throw particularly hard to begin with, this is definitely a tough situation for Cordero and the Nats. We can’t sit around and pay him $5mill in hopes that he rounds back into form.
Hopefully we can work out something to hold on to him while he does recover, but if he is a free agent, he’s going to command some interest from the local teams(LAA, LAD, SD) to come home at a cheaper rate.
Andrew S | 24-Jul-08 at 1:41 am | Permalink
Is Mark L Marker Lerner?
SlowPitch63 | 24-Jul-08 at 7:18 am | Permalink
Brian,
Once again you’ve overwhelmed me with your knowledge and dedication. You make me the smartest guy at the water cooler.
Thanks,
Let’s play two!
Brian Oliver | 24-Jul-08 at 8:07 am | Permalink
For those who think I’m reversing course on my thoughts on overpaying closers, I’m not.
My perspective on Cordero is more from a return on investment. In the financial world of baseball, I don’t see a problem with gambling a couple of million dollars in hopes of having a trade chip. And that’s what I see, potentially, with Cordero. He’s not a premium closer and never will be. But I will have to say, he has the guile to be an asset in a bullpen. The huge caveat is his health.
Basically, what I’m trying to say is
(1) The Nationals should non-tender Cordero this off-season [though the practice of making it public at this point is unnecessary]
(2) They should attempt to work out some sort of deal that allows them a cheap Cordero in 2009, allows Cordero to accrue the service time necessary to become a free agent, and protects the Nats investment for at least one season (2010).
For a team that has clearly eschewed entering the free agent market in any significant way, this is one thing they can attempt to do that does not require a significant investment of resources.
That being said, Cordero’s reaction in Ladson’s piece on this last night makes me believe Bowden said something he should not have in a public forum and the likelihood of Cordero agreeing to give back just decreased alot.
Dntheman1 | 24-Jul-08 at 8:20 am | Permalink
Baseball-reference seems to say Shawn Hill was an Expo as well, for three games.
Brian Oliver | 24-Jul-08 at 8:25 am | Permalink
The players on the 40-man I know who wore an Expos uniform are: Ayala, Cordero, Hill & Johnson
Bernadina, Casto, Schroder, O’Connor, Balester, Rivera (briefly), and Bergmann were all originally drafted, traded for or signed by the Expos.
VladiHondo | 24-Jul-08 at 8:54 am | Permalink
One question, Why did Bowden say this now? Is he intent on burning bridges with Chad? Reports have Cordero pissed due to this coming out without Bowden even talking with Chad before hand.
The last few days have made me sour on Bowden big time.
Brian Oliver | 24-Jul-08 at 8:57 am | Permalink
VH - I have given up on ever trying to associate something rational with many of things he says
Tofu Dog | 24-Jul-08 at 10:12 am | Permalink
Brian, There is an economic maxim known as “sunk costs are sunk costs.” You don’t throw good money after bad to retrieve your prior investments. It is complicated I know–like whether the surge was a good investment to save the original one–but you blow your opportunity costs when you do it.
Dick | 24-Jul-08 at 11:26 am | Permalink
It was always clear to me that when the Chief got hurt at this particular time in his tenure/contract status, he was done as a Nat. The 80% rule guaranteed it.
Regarding the 90% TJ surgery success rate; if you are wondering about the other 10%, see Patterson, J or Hill, S. Also, Carpenter, C didn’t work out so well for the Cardinals. While TJ surgery works the majority of the time (majority being more than 50%), 90% seems way high. How would we declare the successfulness of Ayala, L’s procedure? His velocity certainly came back.
Greg | 24-Jul-08 at 1:03 pm | Permalink
If the Chief becomes a free agent and signs elsewhere, would the Nat’s get a compensation pick in return? (not sure how that would work)
Brian Oliver | 24-Jul-08 at 1:10 pm | Permalink
Greg - No. There would be no draft pick compensation. For a couple of reasons, first he does not have enough service time (6+ years) to be eligible for free agency in the compensation environment. But more importantly, a player needs to be tendered in December to be eligible for draft pick compensation.
Greg | 24-Jul-08 at 1:14 pm | Permalink
Ahh, OK. Thanks!