Nationals Farm Authority

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Comments

1. SlowPitch63 | 28-Jul-08 at 8:00 am | Permalink

   Thanks, Brian, missed you this weekend.
   Let’s play two!

2. dd | 28-Jul-08 at 8:06 am | Permalink

   With Guzman and Bonifacio in the mix for the Nats middle infield, what will it mean for Gonzalez, Desmond, Lyons and Smolinski? They all seem to be having good years, albeit at lower minor league levels.

3. j | 28-Jul-08 at 8:28 am | Permalink

   Hope your paper turned out well. Welcome back to normalcy!

4. MO Nats Fan | 28-Jul-08 at 8:46 am | Permalink

   None of those guys looks likely to be ready to take over as MLB starters before Guzman’s contract expires after the 2010 season. Bonifacio has a leg up on the 2B slot for about the same length of time, but unless he improves dramatically over the next year or two he shouldn’t consider his hold on that slot a lock.

5. Mark L | 28-Jul-08 at 8:47 am | Permalink

   dd — Guzman was only a two year signing, which was very smart imo, because nobody was going to be ready in 2009 and by 2010 whoever is showing signs of being ready can be slowly eased in.
   Bonifacio is a big gamble, as nobody knows if he can hit big league pitching. Only time will tell.

6. MiLBFan | 28-Jul-08 at 8:52 am | Permalink

   Both Carr and Zinicola have developed into quality relief pitchers. Isn’t it time to move them up to the Nats bullpen?

7. JayB | 28-Jul-08 at 8:53 am | Permalink

   Brian,

   What do you attribute the poor hitting this team and organization really has demonstrated this year?

   Should a ‘world class’ player development plan include better instruction at all levels from hitting coaches. I know we need better at the MLB level but is this flaw also in the minor league systems?

8. Brian Oliver | 28-Jul-08 at 9:05 am | Permalink

   The poor hitting at the major league level is a function of one overarching problem … the talent on the major league roster. There are way too many regular starters for the Nats that would be last guys off of the bench for many other major league teams.

   In the minors, I’m not shocked by the results. There realistically only a handful of guys in the organization at each level who are future “prospects”. It’s going to take a few more years to eliminate the Nats overreliance on minor league free agents at all levels. There are too many players older than their level.

9. Suns Fan | 28-Jul-08 at 9:31 am | Permalink

   Willems left yesterday’s game after facing one batter in the fifth. It appeared to be some sort of arm injury. I hope he’s OK.

10. JayB | 28-Jul-08 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    Brian,

    Thank you, I agree that the talent at the MLB level is very poor. SO…now the question is how this reality coexists with Stan’s latest comments about how the team is just missing a player or two in order to compete.

    Stan could be a used car salesman without any problem of conscience that for sure. Other than Zim, Flores and Dukes…….what is Stan seeing? I do not see Milledge as the CF but maybe you do? Still that is a long way from having all the pieces needed right?

11. Brian Oliver | 28-Jul-08 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    The guys I can see as starters are Zimmerman, Guzman, Flores, and two of the three … Kearns, Milledge & Dukes. The problem for the Nationals is that they are all realistically hitters best suited in the #6-8 range in the order with maybe Zimmerman pushing #5.

12. MO Nats Fan | 28-Jul-08 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    That’s a pretty pessimistic assesment of Dukes potential.

    Here’s a best guess projection of the ‘10 or ‘11 lne-up for the true The Plan lovers out there;

    1. Flores
    2. Marrero (Potomac)
    3. Bonifacio (Columbus)
    4. Zimmerman
    5. Gonzales (GCL)
    6. Dukes
    7. Milledge
    8. Burgess (Hagertown)

    SPs
    1. Crow
    2. Lannan
    3. Balester
    4. Zimmermann
    5. Detwiler

13. Andrew F | 28-Jul-08 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    Then the question becomes if that lineup can challenge for the division/wild card. It’s great that the lineup is mainly homegrown, but is it any good? I think two or three of the pieces of those lineups will be FA or trade acquisitions. Maybe even more.

14. JayB | 28-Jul-08 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    Thanks again Brian,

    It is an honest view and what I asked for even if it really calls in doubt what I was hoping for. In your view do the Nats know this reality? Or do they really feel they know much more than you and the scouts on 29 other MLB teams.

    Does Stan understand just how far we really are away from the goal…….and if so is it fair to the fan base to mislead them so badly?

15. Positively Half St | 28-Jul-08 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    MO Nats Fan-

    I like your lineup, although I can’t see Flores hitting 1st and Bonifacio hitting 3rd. I hope the team will sign at least one big free agent by then, as well. Having Smiley at the Major League level by then is exciting, but perhaps a stretch.

16. Brian Oliver | 28-Jul-08 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    PHS - I think he was listing them by position … CA, 1B, etc

17. Kyle | 28-Jul-08 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    MO Nats Fan. I like your list, although I would add Rhinehart to your list of every day players.

18. Rocket Surgeon | 28-Jul-08 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    In terms of line-up I would swap Marrero with Bonifacio as CM profiles as a #3 or clean-up hitter.

    Elijah Dukes isn’t smart enough to stay in the Majors as he’s going to be a Milton Bradley-like player that has a lot of potential but ultimately can’t control his emotions and behavior in order to help his team. I bet JB would unload him today for a prospect.

    Unless the Nats rely heavily on FA’s, there is going to be an offensive deficit in D.C. until at least the 2010/11 season. There is a real shortage of impact hitters in the organization.

19. Mark | 28-Jul-08 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    It’s going to take 2-3 more years to get Burgess and Marrero ready. In the meantime I would put 1B Rhinehart and maybe OF Justin Maxwell (if he can stay healthy).

20. Positively Half St | 28-Jul-08 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    Brian-

    I actually think he may have just been listing them. The positions don’t match.

    But whatever, it is a fun exercise to think who would be up on the MLB roster by 2011.

21. MO Nats Fan | 28-Jul-08 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    Woops, I did screw that up, Flores should be #2 and the rest so on and so forth, at first I was going to do a batting order, but decided a position list would be more productive to the conversation.

    I think Rhinehart, Desmond, Maxwell and Bernadina are all potential fill ins that could start before the Marrero, Gonzales and Burgess guys are ready. (Maybe Stephen King too if Bonifacio faulters).

    We’ll also have to keep an eye on Eury Perez and Destin Hood amoung others who might pass our current top prospects if they develop faster than expected.

    I’m surprised I didn’t get more comments on the SP too, having Crow and Detwiler starting (and Zimmermann) by 2010 seems optimistic to me, but I guess not more than Burgess and Marrero.

22. Marcus | 28-Jul-08 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

    Rocket Surgeon: I think you’re hating on Dukes a bit there. Give the man a shot to change. Sure in the past he’s been a emotional problem. But this year he’s been one of the few bright spots on the team.

23. stats freak | 28-Jul-08 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

    Rhinehart… Everyone seems to love him here but have you looked at the stats beyond his batting avg? He’s got just five RBI’s since his first four games in Harrisburg. He’s also batting below .200 in every situational hitting category but leading off i.e. runners on base; bases loaded; runners in scoring position and runners in scoring position two-outs. He’s got some distance to make up to be considered an everyday 1B in the big leagues.

    It’s unrealistic to think that at this current time there are more than three everyday players in the ENTIRE minor league organization. History and numbers and percentages will tell you that.

    The best draft/development with the biggest impact on the Major’s over the past ten years was the Brewers from 2000 to 2003 and even with them, there’s only three guys on their major league roster that are playing daily and making a major impact. It’s very difficult to get from draft to the big leagues, no matter what organization and what player.

    It’s great to be a fan but it’s even better to be a fan and be somewhat realistic.

24. J. Cole | 28-Jul-08 at 1:15 pm | Permalink

    Cool Site. Big Expos fan, kept following the Nationals as the prospects, etc. carried over. Mostly agree with Brian on hitting line-up, too many has beens. There is a reason why Harris, Belliard, etc. were never major league starter, it’s called consistency, that’s what separates regulars from bench players. I’ve been thinking to myself that the Nationals should just draft all hitters for 1 year to fill up the organization with position player prospects. Like Brian said above - overrelaiance on minor-league free agents. Pitching Depth is good. We need hitters! I like Rhinehart as a hitter a lot. Tired of hearing about how somebody has “potential” and their a “prospect.” Let’s see how somebody performs when they move up a level. Look at John Lannan, even on this site he was listed as #28 or something prospect, now he’s a front of the rotation MLB pitcher. I’ll take a #30 prospect that performs over a #1 that doesn’t any day. Rhinehart has jumped 2 levels in half a year and is stilling hitting above .300 and is actually drawing more walks in AA, so his OBA is in the .400’s. I think he sould get a September call-up and if he adjusts as fast as he has been, then he could have a legit chance at starting 1B in 2009. Here’s my future list for those who trust in the “Plan” (The Plan works, Montreal used to have good teams just based on so much talent coming out of the farm, the key is to sign a core group long term and take shots at title every year - ah ‘94 Expos brings tears to my eyes - what could have been):

    1. Bernandina - CF (Not enough time at MLB level, takes time for most players to adjust, not sold on Milledge, he’s been in the Majors long enough to start producing.

    2. Bonifacio - 2B (Good job trading pitching for hitting, that’s what we need to do. He’s ripping in AAA, let’s see what he’ll do in the Bigs?)

    3. R. Zimmerman - 3B

    4. Michael Burgess - RF (Having a good year in low-A, Power! Let’s see if he continues to develop).

    5. Bill Rhinehart - 1B (See above) Bye-Bye Nick Jointnone!

    6. Elijah Dukes - LF (Liked what I saw before he got injured, was really starting to produce).

    7. Jesus Flores - C (Proven MLB player already)

    8. Ian Desmond - SS (Starting to really hit now at AA, still only 22, already recognized as having major ready defensive sklls)

    Starting Pitching - 1. Shawn Hill (If Healthy) 2. John Lannan (Look at ERA) 3. Jason Bergmann (Actual MLB performance, still relatively young) 4. C. Balester (looking decent in Bigs so far, still only 22-23) 5. Jordan Zimmerman (Good stuff - actually performing, moving up levels, etc.)

    Can’t put Detwiler on this list based on what he has showed so far, same with Crow - might be another Detwiler? Other pitchers I like long-term - C. Willems, S. Martis, A. Alaniz, G. Mock, T. Clippard, etc. Whoever doesn’t start can end up in the pen. Sorry for the long post, just glad to rant and rave here.

25. J. Cole | 28-Jul-08 at 1:24 pm | Permalink

    Stats-Freak: Good post on Rhinehart. However, you have to look at AA team as a whole, Bill hasn’t has as many opps for RBI’s as before. Harrisburg is not scoring as a whole. Look at his walks at AA though, he has more BB’s than SO’s that is the mark of a great contact hitter. Though he doesn’t have a high .avg with RISP, etc. when he does hit in these situations he makes it count. He has 75RBI’s in half a season. he is on pace for .310 BA, 50 Doubles, 25 HR and 130 RBI’s - if that’s not a good year then I don’t know what is. Also, he seems to enjoy a challenge and steps up accordingly, he has successfully jumped 2 levels this year and was the MVP of the Minor League All-Star game he played in.

26. Andrew S | 28-Jul-08 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

    Since we are on the crazy topic of guessing the 2011 lineups I guess I’ll post my best guess.

    Bonifacio 2b s 25/26
    Milledge cf r mostly 26 - 4/03/85
    Zimmerman 3b r mostly 26 - 9/28/84
    Burgess rf l 22
    Marrero 1b r 22/23
    Dukes lf r 26/27
    Flores c r 26
    Espinosa ss s 23/24
    p

    p - A. Crow 24
    R. Detwiler (hoping) l 25
    C. Balester 24/25
    J. Smoker l 22
    J. Lannan l mostly 26 - 9/27/84

    but I feel silly doing it since there are many drafts and many trade deadlines until then. Ages are included.

27. stats freak | 28-Jul-08 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

    Rhinehart, I’m not saying he can’t become a major league hitter, but he’s not there yet. AA pitching is starting to catch up with him. Also, he could be wearing out as this is the most ABs he’s ever had playing baseball without a break.

28. e | 28-Jul-08 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

    stats freak –

    Rhinehart had 437 AB’s last season. 223 in college and 214 in Vermont …

29. Rocket Surgeon | 28-Jul-08 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

    Marcus,

    OK, OK, maybe I was a little harsh on Dukes. What I would like to see is less gang-related behavior and trips to the DL and more production. I’m tired reading about “5-tool players with a big upside” whose big claim to fame is how much trash they talk.

30. MO Nats Fan | 28-Jul-08 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

    The real choice regarding Rhinehart is Bill vs Paul LoDuca vs Aaron Boone. Which of those 3 do you want starting after September 1st? (Assuming Boone is available and LoDuca isn’t shipped, at which case its Rhinehart vs Belliard vs Broadway).

    I say Rhino gets a cup ‘o coffee….also hoping to see Bernadina back and Zimmermann, Wagner, Zinicola and Carr too.

31. stats freak | 28-Jul-08 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    e, and what how much of a break between the University of Arizona season ending and the starting of the Vermont season. It looks like June 5th was his last game at UA and then started for Vermont on June 20th, that’s 15 days which is a bunch. Plus he wasn’t playing everyday at UA because they don’t play everyday. They started in early February. Big difference.

    Anyway, I never said he couldn’t make it just not ready for all that yet.

    And as soon as he goes to the big leagues, his time clock starts running as he has to be put on the 40-man roster etc.

32. expo_ram | 28-Jul-08 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    There has to be a FA bat or 2 signed by ‘10 or ‘11. As much as I like our prospects, it is expecting too much for all of them (Burgess, Boni, Marrero, Dukes, Milledge, Flores, Rhinehart, etc) to be capable of being efficient starters in the bigs by then - pitchers I’m more confident in.

    Signing Tex would go a long way at solving our hitting in the short AND long term, not to mention the PR homerun it would be in a series of PR whiffs.

33. J. Cole | 28-Jul-08 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    Andrew S - Who is Espinosa (SS) on your list? Did I miss a prospect?

34. J. Cole | 28-Jul-08 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    Oh, Wait never mind, I think he is one of the unsigned draft picks from this year.

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