Nationals Farm Authority

Note: A bit of navel-gazing, but for those interested, I am scheduled to call into the Nationals pre-game show this evening to discuss the 2008 minor league season and other prospect-related stuff. 

On Monday, September 1st, the Washington Nationals will be able to expand their roster beyond the standard 25 to include anyone on their 40-man roster. With the placement of OF Austin Kearns on the disabled list and the activation of OF Elijah Dukes, the Nationals have 25-active players. The remaining 15 players on the 40-man roster are as follows:

• 15-day DL (5): Kearns, IF Alberto Gonzalez, RHP Shawn Hill, 1B Dmitri Young, and OF Wily Mo Pena
• Columbus (8): 1B/OF Kory Casto, OF Roger Bernadina, RHP Tyler Clippard, RHP Brian Sanches, RHP Chris Schroder, RHP Ryan Wagner, LHP Mike O’Connor [injured, unsure if it’s season-ending], and LHP Matt Chico [on the DL, likely out for the season]
• Harrisburg (1): OF Justin Maxwell [on the DL, likely out for the season]
• Potomac (1): LHP Ross Detwiler

I’d imagine the Nationals will recall seven or eight players.

One choices is simple, Gonzalez will be activated from the DL right around September 1st.

Young and Hill have rumored returns for later in September (along with Kearns), so I’ll not include them in any analysis.

That leaves seven spots.

Bernadina and Casto seem likely given their presence on the 40-man and their performances in Columbus. Through Monday’s games, Bernadina is hitting 350/411/509 over 41 games for the Clippers with four homers and fourteen stolen bases. He can fill in at any of the outfield spots and serve as a late inning pinch runner or defensive replacement. Casto was recently optioned to Columbus, but should get a call back up to serve as a lefthanded pinch-hitter and backup at 1B, 3B, and corner OF.

Clippard could possibly get a shot to work out of the bullpen as a long reliever for the Nationals but he has been spotty since his return to Columbus. Over his last ten starts, he has had mixed results with 2-5 record, a 4.79 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 41 strikeouts to 24 walks over 56 1/3IP. Additionally, I believe Sanches will merit consideration out of the bullpen. Sanches had a couple of rough outing in the middle of the month but has still managed a WHIP of 1.00 and 10 strikeouts to only one walk over his last six appearances (6IP). Like Bernadina & Casto, the 40-man spot are in their favor for roster expansion.

That brings the count down to three players.

• You can cross Maxwell and Chico off of the list due to their injuries. O’Connor broke his nose/orbital bone and it appears his 2008 season is over.
• Detwiler’s inconsistent performance in 2008 certainly does not warrant a late season promotion.
• RHRPs Schroder and Wagner … Schroder has all but fallen off of the Nationals radar this season so I’m not sure he’s a consideration while Wagner’s stats have not been too impressive since his arrival in Columbus (0-3, 6.61 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, and 10 strikeouts to 11 walks over 16 1/3IP).

I believe the players we are most likely to see join that list are not presently on the 40-man roster but could be added with a few manuevers. Pena, Chico, and Maxwell can all be moved to the 60-day DL to open up a spot on the 40-man (in the case of Chico and Maxwell, I believe the Nationals can recall them and place them on the 60-day). Additionally, space can be cleared by placing players like Schroder, O’Connor, or Wagner on waivers. Out of those players, I’m not sure that any would be claimed by a team in September, allowing the Nationals to hang onto them if they want. I don’t believe the Nationals will make all six moves, but it would not surprise me to see them make at least three of them to open up spots for a few of the following players.

• CA Luke Montz - Many teams will call up a third catcher when rosters expand and if the Nats choose to do so, Montz is the most likely candidate. He has hit only 236/300/345 since his promotion to Columbus but might earn a promotion based upon his overall results between Harrisburg and Columbus, where he has hit a slightly better 264/339/458 with 16 homers and 71 RBI. The 25-year old Montz would need to be added to the 40-man in the off-season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, for what it’s worth.
• 1B Larry Broadway - A long shot, the 27-year old was a former top prospect for the Expos. He’s enjoyed a solid season for the Clippers, hitting 269/358/414 with nine home runs. He also has a reputation for solid defense at 1B where Triple-A managers ranked him the top defensive 1B in the International League
• 2B/3B/OF Leonard Davis - Of the bats, Davis has had the most meteoric rise (sorry Rhinehart fans). Between Potomac, Harrisburg and Columbus, the 24-year old Davis has hit a combined 305/364/549 with 22 homers and 70 RBI. Like Montz, Davis is Rule 5 eligible this offseason so the Nationals would have to protect him or lose him in the December draft. 
• LHP Mike Hinckley - There have been reports from Jim Bowden himself that the 25-year old Hinckley is a consideration for a September call-up. Since the Triple-A All Star break, he is 0-1 in 16 relief appearances with a 2.65 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. The reports are his velocity is back in the low-90s and he could serve as a LOOGy out of the Nats pen
• RHP Levale Speigner - The 27-year old Speigner has been lights out over the second half of the International League season, going 1-0 over 12 appearances (23IP) without allowing an earned run and striking out 19 batters to only four walks. The main thing working against Speigner is whether he is better than the RHRP options already on the 40-man (Sanches, Schroder or Wagner)
• LHP Justin Jones - The 23-year old Jones was added to the Nats 40-man roster last offseason before a knee injury cost him the spot and what was thought to be the season. But Jones has slowly worked his way back up the organization with stops in Hagerstown, Potomac and now Harrisburg where he is 2-4 with a 4.17 ERA over 10 starts (49 2/3IP) for the Senators with 39 strikeouts. Another longshot.
• RHP Craig Stammen - The 24-year old Stammen has had a solid season between Potomac and Harrisburg but has struggled since his promotion to Columbus. Yet another longshot. 
• LHP Yunior Novoa - The 23-year old Novoa has quietly had a solid season out of the bullpen in both Potomac and Harrisburg where he is a combined 4-2 with 4 saves over 43 appearances (74 2/3IP) with a 1.93 ERA and 75 strikeouts to 25 walks. If my count is right, he is another 2008 Rule 5 eligible which could make him a consideration for a September call-up.

At the end of the day, I do not see any more than three of these guys getting September call-ups. And I don’t see guys like Jordan Zimmermann or Bill Rhinehart getting added to the roster before they have to be. Since I have already suggested three bats (Gonzalez, Casto & Bernadina), I’m only going to add Montz as a third catcher. My wild card is Davis, whose assignment to the Arizona Fall League might warrant a September cup of coffee. Joining Clippard and Sanches, will be Hinckley and Novoa.