Baseball America also rolled out their latest top 25 rankings of the 2009 draft prospects from both college and high school (two separate lists).
First, college with no shock at #1:
- Stephen Strasburg rhp Jr. San Diego State
- Alex White rhp Jr. North Carolina
- Grant Green ss Jr. Southern California
- Dustin Ackley 1b/of Jr. North Carolina
- Mike Minor lhp Jr. Vanderbilt
- Kendal Volz rhp Jr. Baylor
- Kyle Gibson rhp Jr. Missouri [teammate of that guy from the 2008 draft who sparks lots of debate]
- Andrew Oliver lhp Jr. Oklahoma State
- Kentrail Davis of So. Tennessee
- Blake Smith of/rhp Jr. California
- Mike Leake rhp Jr. Arizona State
- Jason Stoffel rhp Jr. Arizona
- Jared Mitchell of Jr. Louisiana State
- Ryan Jackson ss Jr. Miami
- Ben Tootle rhp Jr. Jacksonville State
- D.J. LeMahieu ss So. Louisiana State
- A.J. Pollock of/2b Jr. Notre Dame
- Brett Jackson of Jr. California
- Matt den Dekker of Jr. Florida
- Tyler Lyons lhp Jr. Oklahoma State
- Jeff Inman rhp Jr. Stanford
- Brad Stillings rhp Jr. Kent State
- Shawn Tolleson rhp R-So. Baylor
- Robbie Shields ss/2b Jr. Florida Southern
- Ben Paulsen 1b Jr. Clemson
And then high school …
- Tyler Matzek lhp Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.
- Donovan Tate cf Cartersville (Ga.) HS
- Matt Purke lhp Klein HS, Spring, Texas
- Jacob Turner rhp Westminster Christian Academy, St. Charles, Mo. [teammate of Nats 2008 23rd round selection OF Derrick Phillips]
- Mychal Givens rhp/ss Plant HS, Tampa
- Zack Wheeler rhp East Paulding HS, Dallas, Ga.
- Ian Krol lhp Nequa Valley HS, Naperville, Ill.
- Luke Bailey c Troup HS, Cartersville, Ga.
- Brian Goodwin cf Rocky Mount (N.C.) HS
- LeVon Washington cf/2b Buchholz HS, Gainesville, Fla.
- Bobby Borchering 1b/3b Bishop Verot HS, Alva, Fla.
- Max Stassi c Yuba City (Calif.) HS
- Jiovanni Mier ss Bonita HS, Pomona, Calif.
- Chad James lhp Yukon (Okla.) HS
- Deven Marrero ss American Heritage HS, Davie, Fla. [cousin of Nats 1B Chris Marrero and teammate of 2008 5th rd CA Adrian Nieto]
- Matt Davidson 1b/3b Yucaipa (Calif.) HS
- Austin Maddox c Eagle’s View Academy, Jacksonville, Fla.
- Jacob Marisnick of Riverside (Calif.) Poly HS
- Shelby Miller rhp Brownwood (Texas) HS
- Wil Myers c/3b Wesleyan Christian Academy, Thomasville, N.C.
- Matt Hobgood rhp Norco (Calif.) HS
- Slade Heathcott lhp/of Texas HS, Texarkana, Texas
- Chad Thompson rhp El Toro HS, Trabuco Canyon, Calif.
- Keyvius Sampson rhp Ocala (Fla.) Forest HS
- Jonathan Walsh c Coppell (Texas) HS
Jeff | 19-Sep-08 at 12:59 pm | Permalink
I like that little shot thrown in there… You know what I mean. But, anyway. Always remember Matt Harrington #7 overall pick turning down 5.3 million. Always remember that.
Tofu Dog | 19-Sep-08 at 2:15 pm | Permalink
Keith Law had Crow at six or seven overall, right after his team mate Gibson. Interesting that he could be picked at about the same spot in the ‘09 draft as the ‘08. But no signability questions for ‘09.
SlowPitch63 | 19-Sep-08 at 2:18 pm | Permalink
Is it usual to have so many more arms at the top of these lists than bats or is that just the way the talent lines up for next year. Any way we get a shot at three of these guys.
Let’s play two!
Pilchard | 19-Sep-08 at 2:43 pm | Permalink
20 of the top 25 high school players are from either California (8), Flordia (5), Texas (4) or Georgia (3).
Not much need to scout HS talent anywhere else.
Wookiee | 19-Sep-08 at 2:50 pm | Permalink
Did they forget about Aaron Crow?? Where does he rank?
Brian Oliver | 19-Sep-08 at 3:05 pm | Permalink
Wookiee - Not college or high school
Steveo | 20-Sep-08 at 10:59 am | Permalink
@SlowPitch–
I think pitchers are overdrafted in general so arms usually have a higher value that being said I do think there are more arms than usual on this list. I think that it is a very deep pitching draft. From what i’ve read Matzek and Purke are lock first round picks (if they are signable, after Gerritt Cole teams will prob want more of an assurance for drafting a HS pitcher) The college pitchers seem to the real talent and not just Strasburg, White, Minor, Volz, Gibson and even Oliver all seem to be top arms. To me this class seems comparable to the ‘06 class when Linecum and A. Miller were taken as well as quite a few other college arms.
One thing to add though, its still extremely early, at this point last year Gordon Beckham wasn’t even considered as a top 10 pick. Also injuries and signability will help shape the field.
estuartj | 20-Sep-08 at 12:49 pm | Permalink
How about we take Strassburg or Green, Oliver at #10 and Devon Marrero in the 2nd round.
SlowPitch63 | 20-Sep-08 at 1:22 pm | Permalink
Steveo, I appreciate your sharing the knowledge. I know it’s early but being a baseball fan, especially a Nats fan,is a 365 day a year commitment. Brian and his knowledgable posters have increased my enjoyment of the game more than I can possibly say. Thank you and let’s track this together.
Let’s play two!
Sue Dinem | 20-Sep-08 at 1:49 pm | Permalink
Personally, I’d like to see the team recognize that big-time college pitchers are a huge risk and use those first-rounders on some hitting prospects. Marrero and Burgess are both still at least two years away, if not three, and both have to seriously cut down on the K’s if they’re to get past AA.
estuartj | 20-Sep-08 at 4:36 pm | Permalink
Brian got scooped by chico at NJ, syracuse is our new AAA affiliate, go skychiefs!
Andrew S. | 20-Sep-08 at 5:34 pm | Permalink
Big time college pitchers (college pitchers in general) are the surest things in the draft. That doesn’t make them sure things, but they get the best percentage of those making it to major league baseball.
SlowPitch63 | 20-Sep-08 at 5:52 pm | Permalink
Sue,
As of now, who are your favorite bats?
Let’s play two!
estuartj | 20-Sep-08 at 7:13 pm | Permalink
SEA lost again today, although they at least made a good show of it losing 8-7.
I wonder if they’ll win another game this season…
Sue Dinem | 20-Sep-08 at 11:28 pm | Permalink
SP63 / Andy S. - I have no time whatsoever to follow amateur baseball — well, outside of DC (rimshot!) — so I really can’t tell you who I like or don’t like. I rely on a site like this to tell me who to look for.
I’ll agree that college pitchers in general are a good bet to make it to the majors, but the big-time guys that are deemed top-10 worthy seem to break down and become injury prone (e.g. Wade Townsend, Kyle Sleeth) because they are overused. In other words, you might get a Tim Lincecum, but you’re more likely to get a Mark Prior.
EdDC | 21-Sep-08 at 9:08 am | Permalink
estuartj: Relative to the Nats’ reverse pennant race, there is an old expression in baseball that I’ll paraphrase: “If we keep losing, everything else will take care of itself.”
Sue: Would you rather draft a group of pitchers, some of whom will help down the road (assuming they don’t ask for $4 million to sign), or would you prefer to pay $150 million for one free agent pitcher? The older guys get bum arms too. The drafting strategy fits the low-budget plans of the Nats.
Sue Dinem | 21-Sep-08 at 10:10 am | Permalink
EdDC - I believe in the philosophy that you don’t go after free agents until you’re a top-echelon team and that one guy might be the difference-maker, or if it’s to buy time for a position that you don’t have talent that will be MLB-ready.
I think the primary thing that people never “got” about Moneyball was that Billy Beane was looking to exploit prejudices and stereotypes, not to mention the delay of the six-year “clock.”
I think right now there’s an overvaluation of big-time college pitchers and as such, there could be some bargains found in the smaller schools. We’ve already seen it with John Lannan (with a competent defense and an average offense, he’d be at least a 14-game winner) and we may be about to see it next year with Jordan Zimmermann.
That said, to answer your question: build for the draft, and let the Mets or Yankees pay to see CC become the next Bartolo.
EdDC | 21-Sep-08 at 10:54 am | Permalink
Sue,
That makes sense. Draft for talent but this time, sign ‘em. Let others overpay for CC and other superstars (Andruw Jones, Barry Zito). Most of us would like to have CC and Teixeira, both of whom will be 29 next season, but that’s unlikely.
There is a good strategy for getting talent in addition to the draft: Mid-market and small-market teams have young players who are good, and have a nice upside. However, they may be liabilities in the sense that they do not seem to be worth their contracts. You can get value in a trade for these types. You don’t have to give up as much as you get, because you are taking a contract off their hands. Some of these young players will fulfill their full potential, while others will be busts. But it’s worth a try and all it costs is some gambling money. Of course, a GM must have an owner willing to pay the price. The Nats prefer to trade for bargains like Milledge and Dukes–good moves, but there are others who cost more that could be just as good.
The other piece is signing your core youngsters long-term. The clock is already running too long on Zimmerman. The main issue is money, a scarce commodity for this franchise to locate. But the owners also need to demonstrate to Zim that they are willing to pay the price to compete at the MLB level by bringing in some young talent through the draft and trades. Zim wants to see the commitment before he signs.
RD | 22-Sep-08 at 1:10 am | Permalink
We’re in a nice position next year.
At 1 or 2, we get Stephen Strasburg or Grant Green. The ace is obviously the one we want, but Green is a cornerstone SS so he’d be a great addition as well.
At 10, there are a ton of options. We can grab another arm if we go with a position player at the top, or go with a position player if we nab Strasburg.
At that spot, at least one of Kyle Gibson, Dustin Ackley, Donavan Tate, Tyler Matzek, Matt Purke, Kentrail Davis, or Mychal Givens will be available.
BIM | 22-Sep-08 at 7:31 pm | Permalink
Has anyone considered a signing of Lowe (or his ML equivalent) as a stop-gap #1 until the drafted pitchers are ready to step into the role? I wholehartedly agree with building the foundation through the draft, but the team needs some gaps (#1SP, Power-hitting corner OF/IF) filled immediately at the top level. For 2009, sign a short-term (2-3 yr) SP as a viable #1, get Zim under contract, then look for another stop-gap power bat for the (OF) corners, then hold on until the current crop (Marrero, L.Davis, Whitesell, Norris, Hood, et al) matures. If the organization doesn’t or can’t do that, the damage at the most visible (Major-League) level could be hard to reverse.