For those interested, here is what to watch for the final five games of the season …
From Seattle’s perspective with five games left
- Any combination of Padres wins and Mariners losses totaling three OR any combination of Nationals wins and Mariners losses totaling seven clinch the 2nd overall pick in the draft for the Mariners
- If both of the above happen, the Mariners clinch the 1st overall pick
- The Mariners can pick no worse than 3rd
- Remaining schedule (all home): vs LAA(2) & vs OAK(3)
From Washington’s perspective with five games left
- Any combination of Padres wins and Nationals losses totaling three OR any combination Mariners wins and Nationals losses totaling six clinch the 2nd overall pick in the draft for the Nats
- If both of the above happen, the Nats clinch the 1st overall pick
- The Nationals can pick no worse than 3rd
- Remaining schedule: vs FLA(2) & @PHI(3)
From San Diego’s perspective with five games left
- Any combination of Nationals wins and Padres losses totaling eight OR any combination of Mariners wins and Padres losses totaling eight clinch the 2nd pick in the draft for the Padres
- If both of the above happen, the Padres clinch the 1st overall pick
- Any combination of Padres losses and Pirates wins totaling two clinch the 3rd overall pick
- The Padres can pick no worse than 4th
- Remaining schedule: @LAD(2); vs PIT(3)
SlowPitch63 | 24-Sep-08 at 9:16 am | Permalink
Thanks for keeping us posted, Brian.
Let’s play two!
phil dunn | 24-Sep-08 at 10:33 am | Permalink
Brian, What happens if the Mariners and Nationals end up with identical win/loss records? As I recall, the Nats won the season series with the Mariners 3-0. Do they flip a coin for the first pick in the draft?
Kirkie | 24-Sep-08 at 10:43 am | Permalink
The Nationals’ year end organisation report seems to be up (behind the firewall) on the Baseball America site.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/organization-reports/washington-nationals/2008/266916.html
Without infringing copyright, does anyone feel like sharing the salient points?
K
(PS - SAL top 20 prospects today as well…)
estuartj | 24-Sep-08 at 10:51 am | Permalink
This is my favorite part “The Nationals can pick no worse than 3rd”
If the draft were today I think the top 3 are Strasburg, White and Green. Strasburg is the gold ring (or wooden spoon), but neither of the other two are anything to sneeze at, especially if we can top it off with another college pitcher at #10 (which is locked in now with the Alvarez situation fixed) and then again somewhere above #31 (depending on where we pick in the first round and how many sandwich picks we have this off-season).
Brian Oliver | 24-Sep-08 at 10:52 am | Permalink
Phil - It’s previous year’s record. The Nats had the worst 2007 record of the three so SEA or SD has to finish with a worse 2008 record to get the pick ahead of the Nationals
Positively Half St | 24-Sep-08 at 11:21 am | Permalink
estuartj-
I assume you mean “how many sandwich picks there are.” How many “we have”, I think, will be zero, because none of our free agents would bring in any compensation.
Brian Oliver | 24-Sep-08 at 11:33 am | Permalink
A guy over at Detroit Tigers Thoughts did the yeoman’s work in figuring out rough estimations of this year’s Elias ratings (used to determine free agent compensation).
As of today, there are 32 Type A free agents and 42 Type B free agents. There is no way that all 74 of those will turn into sandwich round compensation. Some of them have options that will get picked up (like Vlad Guerrero … there are 9 Type A and 11 Type B like this), others seem pretty good shots of re-signing with their current teams (like Tim Wakefield), and others will not be offered arbitration and therefore not turn into a pick (like Paul LoDuca).