With four games to go …
From Seattle’s perspective
- Any combination of Padres wins and Mariners losses totaling two OR any combination of Nationals wins and Mariners losses totaling six clinches the 2nd overall pick in the draft for the Mariners
- If both of the above happen, the Mariners clinch the 1st overall pick
- The Mariners can pick no worse than 3rd
- Remaining schedule (all home): vs LAA(1) & vs OAK(3)
From Washington’s perspective
- Any combination of Padres wins and Nationals losses totaling two OR any combination Mariners wins and Nationals losses totaling five clinches the 2nd overall pick in the draft for the Nats
- If both of the above happen, the Nats clinch the 1st overall pick
- The Nationals can pick no worse than 3rd
- Remaining schedule: vs FLA(1) & @PHI(3)
From San Diego’s perspective
- Any combination of Nationals wins and Padres losses totaling seven OR any combination of Mariners wins and Padres losses totaling seven clinches the 2nd pick in the draft for the Padres
- If both of the above happen, the Padres clinch the 1st overall pick
- The next Padres loss or Pirates win clinches the 3rd overall pick
- The Padres can pick no worse than 4th
- Remaining schedule: @LAD(1); vs PIT(3)
Mark L | 25-Sep-08 at 10:21 am | Permalink
NFA nation awaits the Kasten interview ……..
Brian Oliver | 25-Sep-08 at 10:35 am | Permalink
I know. Hopefully tonight I can get it transcribed.
j | 25-Sep-08 at 11:17 am | Permalink
Take your time Brian, any info you have provided is always worth the wait! How do you think MLB would treat it if tonights game is cancelled, and the Nats and Mariners end up with the same amount of wins?
Brian Oliver | 25-Sep-08 at 11:24 am | Permalink
j - Mariners would get the #1 pick based on the lower winning percentage is my guess.
Nats would need to have one fewer win if they play one fewer game.
WAS 59-102 0.366
SEA 59-103 0.364 (half game worse)
SEA 60-102 0.370
WAS 59-102 0.366 (half game worse)
Pilchard | 25-Sep-08 at 3:21 pm | Permalink
What happens if two Nats games get rained out between today and Sunday and the Nats finish with a 59-101 record and the Mariners finsih 60-102? Both would be 42 games under and technically tied in the standings. So would the Nats be awarded the top pick based on last year’s record? Would they go on % or the team with the most wins or fewest losses?
Brian Oliver | 25-Sep-08 at 3:25 pm | Permalink
Pilchard - Good question. In that case, the Nats would likely get the pick based on win pct or the tiebreaker.
Dick | 25-Sep-08 at 4:13 pm | Permalink
Brian: I don’t think I agree with you on Seattle’s tragic number vis-a-vis the Nats. Seattle has 100 losses with 4 to play; Nats have 99 losses with 4 to play. If Seattle loses 4 more games, they end the season with 104 losses. Nats can only (if that’s the right word) lose 103 (99 already only 4 more possible). I think that means that from Seattle’s perspective ‘any combination of Nat’s wins and Seattle losses totalling FOUR. . .’
Andrew S. | 25-Sep-08 at 5:29 pm | Permalink
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1031
via KG.
Nats have ~46% chance of getting Strasburg.