UPDATE: Just got home and my copy of BBA was in the mail, the Carolina League top 20 had 1B Chris Marrero at #10 and LHP Ross Detwiler at #11. Eastern League had RHP Jordan Zimmermann at #5 and the International League had RHP Collin Balester at #18.
{ 2008 09 25 }
VladiHondo | 25-Sep-08 at 12:52 pm | Permalink
I guess their actually results have nothing to do with the rankings!
Terry Byrom | 25-Sep-08 at 1:27 pm | Permalink
I’m not sure how you mean it VladiHondo, but you are ABSOLUTELY correct. That’s something fans just don’t seem to understand. Great results in the minor leagues don’t necessarily mean that player is a prospect or is going to be a major league player.
Once upon a time in my past there was a guy in low in 2004 in the midwest league that hit .293 30hr 86rbi and an ops of about .900. But he never did anything else and never went anywhere.
The old adage is that guys that hit home runs in the minors don’t necessarily translate into home runs in the majors. That guys in the minors that hit line drives up the gap, get bigger, stronger, and figure out how to hit so that by the time they reach the big leagues, they are “power” hitters. As with anything else, there are exceptions but they are exceptions (R. Howard and P. Fielder) and not the rule.
So when looking at “prospects” whether it be Baseball America or scouts, they aren’t looking at black and white numbers… scouts are looking at balance, holes, hands, hand/eye, many different things.
I talked to a scout in 2005 after Ryan Zimmerman had joined us that claimed he’d never do anything.
I also talked to a different scout in 2005 that claimed he’d been following Ryan since high school and was convinced he would hit 25-35 hr’s with tons of doubles.
There is NO science in this. There are as many “great” players over the past 40 years in the big leagues taken in rounds 20 to 50 as there are in rounds 1 to 19.
Todd Boss | 25-Sep-08 at 2:16 pm | Permalink
It can be true that minor league performance doesn’t always translate into future performance … but it goes both ways.
That being said, I cannot believe Detwiler is on this list. His numbers were awful this year and by my count Potomac promoted no less than SEVEN starters over him during the course of this season. Van Allen, JZimmerman, Alaniz, Stammen, Jones, Segovia and Kown.
Berndaddy | 25-Sep-08 at 2:27 pm | Permalink
Todd Boss
Except for Zimmermann which other pitcher on your list has Detwiler’s ceiling? In the Scout’s eyes none. Ross had a bad year, Lord only knows if he’ll ever find the control he needs to get to the bigs, but the kid’s got an arm. He got a lefthanded arm at that and the leagues all about giving those guys the most slack. I didn’t make up the rules I live them right with you. With all this said, hole crap how did he get so high on the list, people…
Sue Dinem | 25-Sep-08 at 2:28 pm | Permalink
I’m not sure I would be so blithe as to state that there’s “no science” in this (after all, some of those videos taken at the ballpark are analyzed by folks that study biomechanics), but I would state that scouting is more art than science. Baseball America does seem to prize youth and “tools,” whereas sabermetricians value skills that can be inferred from statstical analysis. I personally believe there’s value in both approaches, particularly as a cross-check.
As for the implication that Detwiler and Marrero are ranked too high, I think I would agree with VH. Certainly Marrero seemed on the upswing before he got hurt, and perhaps the thinking is that by year’s end he would have gotten the rate numbers from .250/.325/.450 to .275/.375/.525 or better and finished with close to 20HR and 85RBI. But an ankle injury to a player that was already slow to begin with is tough to overlook in my book. Chris I think will start next year at Potomac unless he has a monster spring.
Detwiler’s travails have been long-documented, but I can understand that a first-round ranking will carry you for quite some time (after all, dropping him from the Top 20 is tantamount to admitting they have been wrong). Ross will undoubtedly go to Harrisburg for much the same reason.
Pilchard | 25-Sep-08 at 3:31 pm | Permalink
While I would also think that these ratings would put more stock in stats, they often do not. BA ranked Tim Beckham as the top prospect in the Appy League. He hit .243, OBP of .297 and SLG of .345. Twins prospect Angel Morales (who is the same age as Beckham) numbers were .301/.413/.623. Regardless, Beckham was rated as the #1 prospect and Morales was #8.
Terry Byrom | 25-Sep-08 at 3:39 pm | Permalink
Sue,
I should have qualified my NO science statement to say that there isn’t a science as to who is going to be great and who isn’t. Most certainly science goes into scouting.
I went to my first major league game at Candlestick Park in 1971 and long before I was ever in baseball, I probably saw over 1,000 major league games and then coached high school and American Legion…
I can tell you over the years there are a LOT more Randy Elliott’s than Jack Clark’s. I’ve said this before, but there are a lot, lot, lot more 1-5 picks that most of us have never heard of than 1-5 picks than we’ve heard of.
Dick | 25-Sep-08 at 4:35 pm | Permalink
I’m sure the scouts will back me up on this and that there are reams of data to prove me correct; I saw Jamie Moyer pitch for the Phillies the other day. Boy, is he slow. I hope the Nats face him this weekend. He is clearly not a prospect.
Seriously, how much scouting is done by radar gun? Detwiler lights up the guns; the opposition lit him up this year (except for Wilmington).
Sue Dinem | 25-Sep-08 at 4:39 pm | Permalink
Terry B - Agreed. Which is why the obsession over getting the #1 pick may be wasted energy, especially if it’s to be spent on a pitcher. Strasburg may end up a 200-game winner someday, but if he does, he’d be the first #1 overall draft pick to do it. Ever.
Terry Byrom | 25-Sep-08 at 7:23 pm | Permalink
I didn’t care so much about Crow in as much as I’m not sure how it got to that point.
A few years ago the Padres picked a local guy, Matt Bush, as their number one and the number one pick in the draft. And it amazed me that the due diligence wasn’t done on him to weed through some issues that popped up later.
The Nats are headed in the right direction, but there is still a very long way to go on this journey.
Terry Byrom | 25-Sep-08 at 7:28 pm | Permalink
Dick, the couple of scouts that I’ve gotten to know pretty well use a gun, but it’s more of a measurement than a speed thing. For instance, most scouts think it’s more impressive to see a guy that can actually change speeds than a guy that hits 92-94. A guy like Martis, that’s so young still, that has a changeup in the 70s and a fastball that hits 91 means more than the fastball at 91.
From what I understand a guy has to throw awfully hard for scouts to be “wowed”. And 91-92 isn’t awfully hard.
There were some awfully impressive guys in Harrisburg this year… Jordan Zimmermann, Shairon Martis, Marco Estrada and more and I’m just as interested as all of you to see what happens with them next.