The Nationals just dropped their final game of the season 8-3 in Philadelphia locking themselves in as the 1st pick in the 2009 draft. It does not matter what the Mariners do this afternoon against the Athletics.
It is not something to be that proud of as a fan of the Nationals. I would never want to root for my team to lose 102 games. But now the Nationals and Lerners have zero excuse in the 2009 draft. They have the ability to pick the best player in the draft … along with the 10th pick overall. You always draft the best available player early in the draft but I hope to see the Nats add an impact arm and bat … preferably from college in 2009.
It will be interesting to see what happens this off-season. The Nationals have already dismissed their entire coaching staff with the exception of manager Manny Acta and pitching coach Randy St. Claire.
Will President Stan Kasten leave?
Will GM Jim Bowden be let go?
Whatever happens, the Nationals will need to do something this off-season because the current product on the field is not major league. I am a fan of the player development side of the Nationals but the Lerners will need to do something this off-season or the Nationals and their fans are likely to be a similar position in 2009.
Enjoy the off-season.
Positively Half St. | 28-Sep-08 at 4:19 pm | Permalink
It’s great to have the first pick, but it would not be good for you to simply say “Enjoy the offseason” We need to keep the conversation going.
Dick | 28-Sep-08 at 4:22 pm | Permalink
Luis Ayala is ruining the Mets season!
Brian Oliver | 28-Sep-08 at 4:23 pm | Permalink
PHS - I’ll be around. Hopefully the Nationals will make things surrounding Kasten and/or Bowden clearer sooner rather than later. I know my preference but the bottom line is the Lerners do not need to let this stuff stew much longer than a day or two.
Sue Dinem | 28-Sep-08 at 4:25 pm | Permalink
There is no guarantee that Strasburg will be as good as everybody here assumes he’ll be, and there’s plenty of reason (read: history) to believe that he may be (yet) another #1 pick to disappoint. Obviously, it’s better to be in a position to get two of the top 10 draft picks, but it means nothing if the Nats don’t choose wisely.
Ben | 28-Sep-08 at 4:27 pm | Permalink
Good-bye Mr. Bowden. You may be a good GM, but not for a team looking to rebuild through youth.
God I hope they can him!
Brian Oliver | 28-Sep-08 at 4:29 pm | Permalink
SueD - There is no guarantee any draft pick will be as good as you hope they’d be. But my point is the Nationals have no excuse whatsoever in the 2009 draft. They can take the player they value the highest. No other team can select him. There are no excuses. Draft and sign the the player they rate as best.
Todd Boss | 28-Sep-08 at 4:39 pm | Permalink
We had an exhaustive discussion about the #1 pick in the draft over on nationalsjournal a few weeks back. And there’s significant research done by Bill James which shows that the #1 pick has a very good chance of being a productive major leaguer. Just looking at the last 8 #1 overall picks shows that most of them are already considered successes withonly one real bust (and that was a home-town pick by San diego of a player no one really thought was a #1 overall talent in Bush).
Two top-10 picks that can produce in the majors in 2010 is a great thing!
SlowPitch63 | 28-Sep-08 at 4:48 pm | Permalink
Brian,
Thank you, thank you, thank you. You have added a tremendous amount of joy to my life.
Please keep the site open. There is a lot to discuss between now an ST. Hopefully we can talk about an acquisition or two.
Let’s play two!
Let’s play two!
VTBill | 28-Sep-08 at 4:58 pm | Permalink
At this point of the season I think this is the best outcome. We can now allow Rizzo and his staff to decide who’s the best player in next year years draft and then we can draft him. The Lerners HAVE to sign him!! It will cost a bunch of money but after the Crow situation their is no wiggle room. We can’t trade the pick so if Strasburg is the guy then we take him and give him the world. Anything less will result in fan rebellion. How about this scenario. Strasburg proves he’s the best player next spring, we draft him number one. In the meantime, we BOOT Bowden and bring in Rizzo or someone who’s respected in the industry. This new GM talks to Crow and smooths over the bad blood and we pick him 9a. We could even pay him $4.5 or even $5.0 to go along with the $10 we’ll give Strasburg. Ouch, Lerners……This is what you need to do when you decide to buy a pro franchise! I know it’s border line rediculous but at least it would nullify a black eye from the last draft. I know a lot of folks would want a big hitter with that second pick but I want a pitching staff that dominates. I have rooted for the Texas Rangers for years and they never valued pitching and have consequently done squat. Finally I want to add to the praise for Brian! I agree to all the positives, this is my favorite spot on the internet. I feel I learn more here about the Nats than anywhere else. Keep up the great work.
Sue Dinem | 28-Sep-08 at 4:58 pm | Permalink
Brian, I’m in agreement with you regarding the lack of excuses, but my point that is that there’s still reason for us to fret, i.e. draft another Aaron Crow — and by that I mean: Draft someone who’s not willing to sign, for any price (it can happen, kids). We’re better off than we were a week ago in terms of the draft, but it’s how we do beyond those first two draft picks that will ultimately matter the most.
Andrew S. | 28-Sep-08 at 5:24 pm | Permalink
SD has a point…obviously the 2 top 10 picks will be great players, but what the team does after the 1st round often times makes the draft. So, Nats: Chose wisely in the first round, and show your good judgement in the later rounds like you have recently.
Assuming they take Strasburg #1, I’d like to see them take a college bat 10th. It will be expensive, but worth it.
EdDC | 28-Sep-08 at 6:01 pm | Permalink
It is gratifying to have the #1 overall pick.
You know, when the Nats came to town in 2005 and were battling for the pennant that summer, who would have thought that in just a little over three seasons, the Nats would move into position to get the top overall pick in the draft? That took thoughtful planning.
Much credit goes out to the Nats’ leadership for this, and especially to the Lerners. They demonstrated clearly the benefits of budget frugality. This is exactly the kind of accomplishment frugality can bring you!
As the old expression goes (slightly updated)–
Washington: first in war, last in peace, and last in the major leagues.
Tom | 28-Sep-08 at 7:00 pm | Permalink
No draft pick is worth $10 million. Signability had better be a a major concern before the Nats draft a player not after next year.
Alan | 28-Sep-08 at 7:01 pm | Permalink
Brian -
Thank you again for all the hard work that makes this web site a “must read.” As for first picks in the draft, two words… Brian Taylor. And the Yankees only won 54 games that year (was it 1990?). Two more words…. Andy Pettite - undrafted free agent. So my wish for the offseason is the scouting department does a fabulous jobs in all aspects of their jobs - early, middle and late rounds of the draft and undrafted talent. As a bonus, I also wish that the two top ten picks be more than just money-sucking hype.
Sue Dinem | 28-Sep-08 at 7:12 pm | Permalink
And for those who were interested… Seattle won 4-3, giving the Nats a “clean” 1.5-game edge ;-)
Andrew S. | 28-Sep-08 at 7:16 pm | Permalink
Alan, Pettite was drafted and signed. Just not very high.
Scott | 28-Sep-08 at 8:16 pm | Permalink
Possession of the #1 pick will likely allow the team to be more active in the trade market. To get a legitimate power hitter, they will need to give something in return. Nats strength is in young arms. They might be more willing to part with some SP talent, knowing that they can select the best pitcher next year.
If that is the case, it will be interesting to see who they move. Lannon is my no-trade pitcher. I believe he has the makeup of a winner. After that, it depends on what we would get in return.
My guess is that Martis would be packaged and I wouldn’t rule out Marrero. I don’t want to see them go but you have to give something to get something.
I would hold onto Lannon, Zimmerman and Balestar (in that order) and be willing to move Martis or Detweiler. I also would keep McGreary out of the discussions.
I welcome any comments.
Steven | 28-Sep-08 at 8:23 pm | Permalink
I have a prediction–it’ll be no more than 2-3 weeks before the public posturing and negotiations start in the form of quotes from Kasten and Bowden about how Strasburg isn’t as good as people say.
bangzoom | 28-Sep-08 at 8:58 pm | Permalink
If the #1 pick has any effect, I’d think it would make the Nats LESS likely to spend on big-league contracts, whether via free agency or trade.
If you buy the company line, the budgets for the draft and the big-league roster are separate, and they are set during the off-season. And, if the past is any guide, the Nationals will look to do things as cheaply as possible. If you have two of the top 10 picks in the draft, it would be wise to allocate more money for the draft. If that’s the case, I could see less going to the major-league roster. And while I don’t have a link to prove it, I think I read somewhere that the Nats are considering cutting payroll at the major-league level (believe it or not).
Of course, teams can dig into the wallet if things are going well, like the Brewers did. But with this team, that is a gigantic if.
bangzoom | 28-Sep-08 at 10:00 pm | Permalink
Pitchers selected with #1 overall pick:
2007: David Price, Rays
2006: Luke Hochevar, Royals
2002: Brian Bullington, Pirates
1997: Matt Anderson, Tigers
1996: Kris Benson, Pirates
1994: Paul Wilson, Mets
1991: Brien Taylor, Yankees
1989: Ben McDonald, Orioles
1988: Andy Benes, Padres
1983: Tim Belcher, Twins
1981: Mike Moore, Mariners
1976: Floyd Bannister, Astros
1973: David Clyde, Rangers
Yikes. Don’t get me wrong, I hope the Nats get a franchise player with this pick. But the position players taken with the #1 overall pick have a MUCH better track record than pitchers.
VladiHondo | 28-Sep-08 at 10:24 pm | Permalink
In their bad years, pre-dynasty, in the infant years of the “Braves Plan”, only once did the Braves have the overall #1 pick.
Generally, they didn’t draft too well, but they got that pick right. Chipper Jones in 1990.
Also, I think the difference between picking a HS or a college pitcher #1 is large - bigger safety net in a college kid. So I think this could be our “Chipper” pick, getting a guy who can star for us for years to come. Only guy that seems to fit that bill is Strasburg.
John O. | 28-Sep-08 at 10:50 pm | Permalink
VladiHondo:
Wasn’t 1990 the year when the consensus #1 pick was Todd Van Poppel but it was assumed he was unsignable bcause he wanted to go to college? If memory serves, the Braves sort of lucked out there by taking the next guy on their list.
Andrew L. | 28-Sep-08 at 11:48 pm | Permalink
Bangzoom is exactly right with pitchers chosen #1 vs. position players that have done well to extremely well in the case of future HOFers like Chipper, Ken Griffey Jr. and ARod.
Strasburg is attached to Scott Boras which isn’t a plus and in previous years his players have fallen in drafts past their projections.
As College players go, I remember Andrew Miller from UNC who was supposed to be a definite in the 1st round and he fell a few in spots in the Draft to #6 overall by the Tigers in 2006 and so far has been a bust with a career ERA of 5.80. I hope Aaron Crow meets a similar fate given his dealings.
Bullington is pitching for the Indians and just got called up and lost today. He was the #1 of 2002 and was a sure thing—and has no wins in his MLB career.
Check out Strasburg on the USA National team with other amateurs as he wasn’t the best pitcher on that team and if you followed him in the Olympics he was the only amateur pitcher on the squad with many Minor leaguers but again was not the best pitcher on that squad.
What Strasburg does well is strike out the other team, but is a streaky pitcher.
The #1 has to be a sure thing and doesn’t have to be who Baseball America says is #1.
SlowPitch63 | 29-Sep-08 at 7:29 am | Permalink
Andrew S, Sue D, Alan,
I agree with you. To fully exploit the draft we must draft and sign players in depth. My frustration this year went may beyond the Crow debacle. We missed out on several good oportunities and I’m afraid it might have been because of an unrealistically low budget. I’m afraid next year we might sign the top two and then a spingling of organizational players. Up until now I haven’t supported Learners Are Cheap but I’m beginnng to do so.
I hope I’m wrong.
Let’s play two!
SlowPitch63 | 29-Sep-08 at 9:26 am | Permalink
Bangzoom,
What a sobering summary. The last pitcher I remember with the hype we are now seeing was Ben McDonald, who turned out just OK.
What is the list of position players over the same period and who would you draft #1 and #10 in 09?
I know it has until June to change but this is fun to discus.
Let’s play two!
estuartj | 29-Sep-08 at 10:27 am | Permalink
I’d love to see us take Strasburg and then someone like OSU’s Oliver at #10, maybe Marrero’s cousin in the 2nd round, sound like a more athletic but less powerful hitter than Chris, maybe decent power for a middle infielder though!
bangzoom | 29-Sep-08 at 10:43 am | Permalink
SP63,
It’s a MUCH better list of hitters recently…
2008: Tim Beckham, Rays
2005: Justin Upton, DBacks
2004: Matt Bush, Padres
2003: Delmon Young, Rays
2001: Joe Mauer, Twins
2000: Adrian Gonzalez, Marlins
1999: Josh Hamilton, Rays
1998: Pat Burrell, Phillies
1995: Darin Erstad, Angels
1993: Alex Rodriguez, Mariners
1992: Phil Nevin, Astros
1990: Chipper Jones, Braves
1987: Ken Griffey Jr., Mariners
1986: Jeff King, Pirates
1985: BJ Surhoff, Brewers
1984: Shawn Abner, Mets
1982: Shawon Dunston, Cubs
1980: Darryl Strawberry, Mets
1979: Al Chambers, Mets
1978: Bob Horner, Braves
1977: Harold Baines, White Sox
1975: Danny Goodwin, White Sox
1972: Dave Roberts, Padres
1971: Danny Goodwin, White Sox
1970: Mike Ivie, Padres
1969: Jeff Burroughs, Senators
1968: TIM FOLI, METS
1967: Ron Blomberg, Yankees
1966: Steve Chilcott, Mets
1965: Rick Monday, A’s
In terms of who I think the Nats should take, I have no idea, not having followed the amateur circuit in a while. From what I’ve seen, though, it would certainly be a hitter (preferably college) with the #1 pick.
All I know is, you take the best player available with every pick, but only after you MAKE SURE you can sign them. I’m pretty sure when the Twins took Joe Mauer, everybody thought Mark Prior was THE guy, but the Twins weren’t going to cough up an absurd amount of money… So they took Mauer, who wasn’t the BEST player, but he was right up there and he was signable. If you get too hung up on Strasburg, you can miss out on some REALLY good players. I know the Nats need to spend more money, but draft picks, let alone high ones, are worthless unless you sign the player.
And all this “we can’t take a 3B because Zimmmerman’s here” is BS. We don’t even know if Zim will be here by the time the player is ready for the big leagues, and we don’t know that the player will ever make it to the big leagues anyway. Take the best player, and talk to them about their bonus demands BEFORE you take him.
RD | 29-Sep-08 at 12:25 pm | Permalink
Strasburg is not just a guy that strikes batters out.
He’s much more than that, which is why he is so hyped.
He is a power pitcher with the ability to strike anyone out at any time, but he’s also an efficient pitcher. He is an 8+ to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. That is amazing. He throws strikes and people still can’t hit him, which shows you how good his stuff is. His efficiency allows him to go deep into games and maintain his stuff. He still hits the mid to high 90’s in the 9th inning. He’s also an intelligent kid that knows how to pitch and apparently has his head on straight.
Barring injury, this kid is the best pitcher to come along in years. Some may give David Price but that would only be because he’s a lefty. Strasburg as a sophomore was as dominant as Price was as a junior. We haven’t even seen the best of Strasburg yet. This year he’s going to be even better.
He’s going to come with a hefty price tag, but he’s the type of player we need. He gives is a potential ace, one of the best players in the game if things go as planned. We don’t have anybody in the organization, hitter or pitcher, that has real superstar ability. Strasburg does.
John O. | 29-Sep-08 at 1:22 pm | Permalink
Re post #28, welcome to the blog, Mr. Boras!
Andrew L. | 29-Sep-08 at 8:42 pm | Permalink
John O - Good one!
My favorite mid-priced Free Agent is off the market today. Lohse, Cards agree to four-year deal Right-hander avoids free agency after first season with Cards.
SlowPitch - Ben McDonald was 78-70 lifetime and was a bust given all of his hype. Here’s the rub. The #7 pick in the McDonald draft was FRANK THOMAS!!!!
hartmanbirge | 30-Sep-08 at 2:32 pm | Permalink
“Whatever happens, the Nationals will need to do something this off-season because the current product on the field is not major league.”
Sorry, but I disagree…. I think that the media and the fan base in general are too damn impatient. Sometimes the worst thing to do is to “do something.” What you DON’T do can be your best move. Go out and sign big name FA’s….pay them a gazillion dollars… and then potentially disrupt your clubhouse? Do we really want to be the Redskins of baseball? I am willing to put up with developmental years - the Lerners have been brutally honest with us on this score - either have patience with the young kids or find something else to do. This in my mind separates the real fans from the pretend fans. We need to bite our lip, suck it up, and deal with the mistakes. This year we developed young kids like Ballestar, Martis, Mock, Hanrahan, etc. and let them get whacked around…. we should be better next year. People need to fraking RELAX…. and come to grips with the fact that one year, two years…. losing…. doesn’t matter. What matters is that we have baseball….. and that over time we’ll win….. need to get a grip.
Brian Oliver | 30-Sep-08 at 3:26 pm | Permalink
hartman - I am not advocating signing the Sabathias or Teixeiras for what I believe they are going to get.
However, it is not unreasonable to expect them to make some moves along the lines of signing someone a tier below that. I see no problem in the development of the team to take a chance on someone like Jon Garland. I don’t see an issue in making a 3 or 4 year commitment to a player.
While it’s nice to believe a team can just sit and wait for their minor leaguers to develop, they do have to show something at the major league level. Sure, there is a chance a mistake or two will be made, but I do not believe there is any problem in going after two or three Type B guys. It doesn’t cost them one of their own draft picks and allows them to perhaps supplement their player development efforts in the future.
I think it would be a mistake for the Nationals to stand pat with what they finished 2008 with. Others may disagree but the roster that finished the 2008 season (younger players included) is another top 5 draft pick in the making in 2009.
Will Giery | 08-Oct-08 at 10:18 pm | Permalink
I will not renew my season tickets (4 club level) if nothing is done during the off season to improve this club. I’ve suffered with them since their inception and, along with all the other season ticket holders, we’ve suffered alone. Mr. Lerner, it is time to lossen the purse strings and go after a marquee player and pitcher. Mr. Kasten, it is time to do your magic like you did with Atlanta. When and if you do, I’ll renew. If not, I won’t be coming back and I will do all in my power to convince other season ticket holders I know to join me.