The Arizona Fall League got underway yesterday with the Peoria Saguaros defeating the Scottsdale Scorpions 9-3 (box/gamer). Leonard Davis played RF and was 0/4 with a run scored. SS Ian Desmond was 2/3 with one run and one RBI. LHP Cory VanAllen started for the Saguaros allowing two runs (one earned) on three hits over two innings with two strikeouts. RHP Adam Carr pitched a scoreless inning with one strikeout.
{ 2008 10 08 }
Scot | 08-Oct-08 at 8:22 am | Permalink
Brian - Two questions for ya: Any thoughts on why Ackley (UNC-1B) and Green (USC-SS) are not mentioned with Strasburg at the top of the 2009 MLB Draft? Also, assuming those three and the other two high-tier college arms go top 5, and Crowe goes 6-10, who might be available for the NATS at 9A (Very much enjoy your blog!)?
Chris | 08-Oct-08 at 8:29 am | Permalink
Crow will not be drafted by the Nats. He has to give his permission and has already stated that he will not + the Nats would be crazy or stupid to go through this again unless it was an act of revenge which is crazy and stupid.
Brian Oliver | 08-Oct-08 at 8:38 am | Permalink
Strasburg is considered head & shoulders above the rest of the draft class. I’ve seen the discussion going back and forth about the merits of drafting a pitcher versus a hitter and I agree that pitchers are more of a crapshoot.
Strasburg has history working against him, but the draft mindset needs to be best available player.
From all scouting reports Strasburg is the best player available in the draft. He is 6′4″ 220lbs with three above average pitches. His fastball is in the mid-90s with impressive control. He not only throws hard, he also knows how to pitch.
Green & Ackley are worthy of consideration for top five but scouts are touting Strasburg as one of those once in decade types of talents.
estuartj | 08-Oct-08 at 9:15 am | Permalink
Crow’s comments to the KC paper sure makes the scenario of a re-draft hard to envision. However, as a business move allowing a re-draft by Washington makes good sense. Any other team will have the option of taking a compensatory pick while Crow has no options besides continuing to risk injury playing Indy Ball. If he was re-drafted by the Nats the footing would be more equal and he would likely get a better deal.
There is a long way to go till June and all kinds of posturing still to take place regarding our 9A pick. If we are going to take Strasburg its unlikely they will take another pitcher in the 10 slot (though Oliver of OSU looks appealing). I don’t think we’ll have to give up much talent for signanbility in that slot, but the commitment to sign and play vs drag out the negotiation till the deadline should be a major consideration (especially if it is a player who could be in DC for call-ups if he starts playing in June, similair to Zimmerman).
EdDC | 08-Oct-08 at 11:16 am | Permalink
estuartj,
Your comments are consistently thoughtful, so maybe you could help answer a couple questions:
Have you considered that Crow does not want to be a Nat mostly because he does not see the Nats as an organization financially committed enough to building a winning club? Maybe Crow does not want to get stuck in an organization for six years that skimps on everything, with low budgets for all aspects of their operations? Maybe it is more than a business decision for Crow?
Let’s say you are a Nat FO person. Why would you give up any talent at 9A for the sake of signability? Let’s say there is a reasonable chance for player A to sign, but he wants more than slot, maybe much more (like Crow who wanted, what, $1.5 million above slot?). Player A has good leverage (able to return for a senior year in college, for example). Let’s say player B does not project quite as highly as player A, but is a sure slot-signability guy, because he has no leverage (let’s say he is a college senior). Which one do you draft?
estuartj | 08-Oct-08 at 11:49 am | Permalink
Ok, here we go…
Maybe I’ve worked in politics so long I never believe what people say. Crow says we tried to bully him and that maybe he’ll be in a better position with a better organization next year. Are we bullies because we wouldn’t give him $9 mil? There is probably a lot more back story here, but it isn’t in his, the agents or the club’s interest to give fans the full story, just the spin. Did he not think we were a club he wanted to be on when we took him, or AFTER he didn’t get the contract he wanted did he pick up the refrain everyone else is using to position himself for next June?
That is far too defensive thinking to be successful long term. Taking the “best player available” always sounds good, but defining that is tough (compare a pitcher to a catcher to an OFer and tell me who is “better”), picking for team need sounds bad, but there is a world of difference between saying we need a first baseman in Washington and we need more middle infield depth for our mid-level affiliates.
If you think you have a chance at a player who can contribute now (better?) at a position of need (in the bigs?) would you take him over say a catcher out of HS who you “grade” higher? If we have a chance at a guy who would be the former, but we might miss on completely then maybe you take the later if he won’t, but such hypotheticals are pointless when we don’t know much about the players who will be considered and know nothing about their emotional makeup of contract desires.
estuartj | 08-Oct-08 at 1:13 pm | Permalink
That wasn’t nearly as well thought out and articulate as I would have liked, I won’t rehash all of it again, but going forward I really hope the team is doing what many bottom rung college football programs do to get top talent to come to them rather than the FSU, USC and OSUs of the world. Come to us and get a chance to suceed NOW, hey Strasburg, sign in June with the Nats and you’ll be pitching in the Major League by September, is that what EVERY player should want? On the finance side it gets you the REALLY big money sooner (6 years to FA and a 10 year $200+ million contract!).
I’m surprised Crow was willing to pass up getting his “Clock” started for such a small amount of money, maybe his agents don’t see it the same way that Boras does, but fortunately we get to work with a PROFESSIONAL with Strasburg instead of the keystone cops that represent Crow.
Frank H | 08-Oct-08 at 1:16 pm | Permalink
I believe EdDC is right on the money on his assessment of the Crow situation. He didn’t want to sign because it was Washington that drafted him and the perception Washington mgmt are not committed to building a championship calibre team (same challenge we will have trying to sign free agents).
Did Washington know he didn’t want to sign with them before drafting him, and hope he would back down? Probably. Should they have drafted him anyway? Absolutely.
The whole draft system breaks down if the agents and prospects are choosing their draft team, instead of the other way around.
If Aaron Crow wants to play a year of semi-pro ball to try to break the system, fine, let him. I think the only one that wins with this is Crow’s agents, and all the risk is with Crow. Next year he’ll still be drafted
by a lowly franchise and if he gets hurt in the meantime, fortunes lost.
Let’s just forget about Crow and go on with life. Hopefully next year we draft someone who doesn’t put their futures fully in the hands of the Hendricks brothers.
MO Nats Fan | 08-Oct-08 at 1:17 pm | Permalink
Can someone clear up for me the difference between a major league and minor league deal as it relates to FA? If you sign a minor league deal out of the draft you are the teams property for 6 years unless you make the 40 man, currect? If they “purchase” your minor league contract when does your clock start for getting to arbitration years and then FA, is it being on the 40 man or do you have to be active?
I remember Bowden making a big deal after the Crow non-signing that he HAD offered Crow a major league deal until it was too late to get an MRI/physical and that would get Crow to the big payday sooner…
EdDC | 08-Oct-08 at 3:07 pm | Permalink
estuartj,
Thank you for the response at posts #6 and 7.
On Crow, sure the Nats got dealt a tough agent. With a decent budget for signing draftees, the whole negotiating process could have gone more smoothly, I’ll bet. A lot of the animosity set in when both sides started taking excessively hardline stances. Money could have softened the stances. Money spent on draftees is money well-spent relative to free agent expenditures. We are talking small amounts here for draftees.
Your questions about who to sign–someone ready now vs. someone maybe graded higher who would be ready much later–are good ones. I just would like to see the Nats take money out of the equation more than they have been doing.
MO Nats Fan | 08-Oct-08 at 3:16 pm | Permalink
Is 12:35pm MST 2:30pm in DC or 3:30pm? The MiLB website has line-ups up (Desmond is playing SS and hitting clean-up), but no start time on AFL gameday.
Does anyone know how most teams handle starting pitchers in AFL? VanAllen started last night and only went two innings, is that normal, kind of a starter by committee kind of deal?
estuartj | 08-Oct-08 at 3:20 pm | Permalink
If Crow’s agents weren’t willing to come down from $9Mil as was reported (and granted that is based on Bowden I think so who the hell knows) then unless we were going to give him as much money as we’ll have to give Strasburg next year then it wasn’t going to matter.
I think there is a lot more back story here that we haven’t heard yet, and probably won’t.
Sue Dinem | 08-Oct-08 at 3:24 pm | Permalink
What a lovely world where everything is as simple as money. Please tell us some more!
Frank H | 08-Oct-08 at 4:42 pm | Permalink
I’m sure there is lots more behind the story that we don’t know, but what we DO KNOW is that Nat’s took the same “draft the best player available” approach into the 2007 draft and managed to sign ALL their choices including some supposed unsignables while opening their purses to make it the MLB’s biggest draft success story.
Are we saying that all of a sudden Nat’s mgmt decided to get tight and treat Aaron Crow differently? Nonsense.
EdDC | 08-Oct-08 at 4:46 pm | Permalink
I think it has been reported that Crow was willing to drop his demands to either $4 million or $4.4. Is that correct or not?
The O’s first rounnder did the same thing the year before–held out and signed at the last minute for $6 million. Maybe the O’s should not have signed Weiters?
estuartj | 08-Oct-08 at 5:11 pm | Permalink
Crow dropped his demand from $9mil to 4.5 at 11:40pm and his agent said he would have settled for $4mil (whether he said that to Bowden is unclear), the Nats came up to $3.6mil in response but time ran out before they could bridge the difference.
Mark L | 08-Oct-08 at 8:13 pm | Permalink
I think maybe you guys have really short memories. Everything that came out of Crow’s
mouth the last two months said one thing — dumb jock! Stop overanalyzing a peabrain here and let’s move on.
MrMadison | 08-Oct-08 at 8:56 pm | Permalink
enough about Crow. seriously.
he didn’t sign, he’s not in the organization, and he’ll be in another organization next year.
he’s no longer worth the discussion.
estuartj | 08-Oct-08 at 9:14 pm | Permalink
Amen! Can we start obsessing over Strasburg now and who might fall to us with the 10th pick?
Please?
Scot | 08-Oct-08 at 10:51 pm | Permalink
Thought no one would ever get back to the first item in this thread! Thank you estuartj. How bout this:
1-Strasburg, 2-Green, 3-Ackley, 4-White, 5-the other top college arm (?), 6-one of two top prep arms, 7-the other top prep arm, 8-Tate, the top prep position player, which leads us to 9-Crow? and 9A-either the 2nd best HS bat or the third best college bat. Fun to contemplate, no?