Book Review

More from Sickels

I counted up the various grades from John Sickels prospect guide and they break out as follows: 

Team Total A A- B+ B B- C+ C
Washington 37 0 0 3 2 4 9 19
Average 36 0 0 2 3 3 10 18
Median 36 0 0 2 3 3 9 19
Arizona 37 0 0 2 3 3 7 22
Atlanta 36 0 0 4 6 1 14 11
Baltimore1 39 0 1 2 2 8 6 20
Boston 38 1 2 1 4 3 9 18
Chicago (NL) 37 0 0 2 4 4 7 20
Chicago (AL) 32 0 0 1 0 1 11 19
Cincinnati 39 1 2 1 3 4 16 12
Cleveland 33 0 0 0 4 4 10 15
Colorado 34 0 1 1 3 8 9 12
Detroit2 34 0 0 1 0 2 10 21
Florida 34 0 1 0 6 3 7 17
Houston 33 0 0 1 1 3 8 20
Kansas City 35 0 0 1 2 2 9 21
Los Angeles (AL) 36 0 0 3 3 1 11 18
Los Angeles (NL) 37 1 1 1 2 2 9 21
Milwaukee 34 0 0 2 2 2 9 19
Minnesota3 43 0 0 2 5 5 12 19
New York (NL)3 34 0 0 1 2 2 4 25
New York (AL) 42 1 0 2 2 2 19 16
Oakland 37 0 0 6 3 4 9 15
Philadelphia 36 0 0 0 4 0 11 21
Pittsburgh 33 0 1 1 2 0 6 23
St. Louis 37 1 0 0 3 8 8 17
San Diego 36 0 0 2 5 2 17 10
San Francisco 34 0 0 1 2 5 8 18
Seattle1 34 0 0 3 0 1 10 20
Tampa 36 3 0 4 3 3 9 14
Texas2 36 0 0 5 5 3 9 14
Toronto 34 0 0 2 0 1 7 24
  • 1 - Includes realigning the players from the Baltimore trade of Erik Bedard to Seattle for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler. Tillman (B+), Mickolio (C), and Butler (B-) are counted with the Orioles
  • 2 - Includes realigning the players from the Detroit trade of Michael Hernandez to Texas for Armando Galarraga. Hernandez (C) is counted with Texas and Galarraga (C+) is counted with Detroit
  • 3 - Includes realigning the players from the Minnesota trade of Johan Santana to New York (NL) for Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, and Phil Humber. Guerra (B+), Gomez (B), Mulvey (B) and Humber (B-) are counted with the Twins

For those interested, here are the totals for each grade:

A: 8

  • Clay Buchholz BOS
  • Jay Bruce CIN
  • Clayton Kershaw LAD
  • Joba Chamberlain NYY 
  • Colby Rasmus STL
  • Evan Longoria TB
  • Jacob McGee TB
  • David Price TB

A-: 9

  • Matt Wieters BAL
  • Jacoby Ellsbury BOS
  • Jed Lowrie BOS
  • Joey Votto CIN
  • Johnny Cueto CIN
  • Franklin Morales COL
  • Cameron Maybin FLA
  • Andy LaRoche LAD
  • Andrew McCutcheon PIT

B+: 55; B: 83; B-:91; C+: 290; C: 541

Using Sickels as an arbiter, the Nationals are a middle of the road organization. This is roughly where I see them, somewhere in the 12-15 range. They are getting incrementally better but there is still room for growth.

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The Baseball Prospect Book 2008

After spending the weekend in Las Vegas for the Super Bowl (thank you Giants for winning that moneyline), I came home to find “The Baseball Prospect Book 2008,” John Sickels annual review of around 1,000 prospects in minor league baseball.

I have not had time to pore through it to the degree I want, but this is the third year in a row that I’ve purchased it and for those who frequent this site, well worth the $24 investment (buy it here).

Here is some quick background on how Sickels approaches his prospect review/rating:

GRADES AND WHAT THEY MEAN

  • Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.
  • Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
  • Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
  • A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
  • Also note that there is diversity within each category. I’m a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
  • Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

In 2007, Sickels provided reviews of 34 Nationals prospects and in 2008 37.

Player 2007 2008
Alaniz, Adrian % C+
Balester, Collin C B-
Bernadina, Roger C C
Broadway, Larry C off
Brown, Dee C off
Burgess, Michael % B+
Campbell, Brett C off
Carr, Adam C B-
Casto, Kory B C
Chico, Matt C+ !
Clippard, Tyler1 (B) C+
Corcoran, Roy C off
Daniel, Michael off C
Davis, Leonard off C
Desmond, Ian C C+
Detwiler, Ross % B+
Diaz, Frank C off
Dukes, Elijah2 (B) !
Englund, Stephen C off
Estrada, Marco C off
Everts, Clint C off
Flores, Jesus C !
Fruto, Emiliano C+ off
Gibson, Glenn3 C+ (C+)
Gonzalez, Esmailyn off C
Guzman, Garrett off C
Hanrahan, Joel4 (C) !
Hill, Shawn C+ !
Ivany, Devin C off
Jimenez, Luis5 off C
King, Stephen C+ C
Lannan, John C B-
Lefave, Andrew off C
Lowrance, Marvin off C
Marrero, Chris B+ B+
Martis, Shairon B C+
Maxwell, Justin C B
McCoy, Patrick % C
McGeary, Jack % C+
Meyers, Brad % C
Mock, Garrett C+ off
Morales, Alexis C C
Norris, Derek % C
Novoa, Yunior C C
Nunez, Jhonny C+ C+
Pena, Hassan off C
Plasencia, Francisco C off
Smoker, Josh % B-
Smolinski, Jake % C+
Souza, Steve % C
Spradlin, Jack C off
VanAllen, Cory C C
Watson, Brandon6 off C
Whitesell, Josh C C
Whitney, Matt off C+
Willems, Colton B C+
Zimmermann, Jordan % B
Zinicola, Zech B off
  • 1 - 2007 grade with New York Yankees
  • 2 - 2007 grade with Tampa Rays
  • 3 - 2008 grade listed under Tampa Rays
  • 4 - 2007 grade with Los Angeles Dodgers
  • 5 - 2008 grade listed under Baltimore Orioles
  • 6 - no longer with Nationals
  • % - drafted in 2007
  • ! - no longer qualified as a rookie

Summarizing it …

Year Total Ranked A A- B+ B B- C+ C
2007 34 # 0 0 1 4 0 7 22
2008 37 % 0 0 3 2 4 9 19
  • # = Does not include Clippard, Dukes, or Hanrahan
  • % = Includes Jimenez; does not include Watson or Gibson

To put things further into perspective, from my quick scan/count, in 2008 Sickels ranked only seven ‘A’ prospects (note … three with Tampa); ten ‘A-’ prospects; and fifty-four ‘B+’ prospects. 

It seems the Nationals are on the right path but there is certainly room for growth.

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Growing the Game

When the Lerners were officially introduced as the new owners of the Washington Nationals on May 4, President Stan Kasten stated the following:

We are going to become the next big sports phenomenon. And when we succeed, because every country in the world which plays baseball has a media presence here, we will be a phenomenon not just nationally, but internationally.

Ever since Kasten made that one statement, I’ve wondered how he would implement such a grand pronouncement. It was that quote which drew me to Alan M Klein’s Growing the Game: The Globalization of Major League Baseball. Klein tackles MLB’s globalization efforts by focusing on three organizations (the Los Angeles Dodgers, Kansas City Royals, and the Commissioner’s Office) over a seven year period (1999-2005) spanning eight countries. His underlying point … “Major League Baseball’s efforts at globalization are not only provident for the future of the sport but also critical to its current prosperity.”

Before delving into the globalization of MLB, Klein first addresses the shortcomings of MLB’s domestic expansion of baseball. He highlights the successes MLB has seen over the past 5 years fail to acknowledge MLB’s fan base is not growing across all cultural lines commensurate to other professional sports. “MLB panders to those communities that can afford to go to their games rather than to those who produce its talent,” writes Klein. The efforts are underway to address these shortcomings with things like Revitalizing Baseball in the Inner-cities (RBI) which is working towards drawing more minorities to baseball.

Klein begins his analysis by splitting the globe into three different groups based on their baseball sophistication and the potential economic rewards they offer:

  • Tier 1 are countries where baseball is mature and well-known; professional leagues exist; Dominican Republic, Mexico, Venezuela, and Japan
  • Tier 2 are countries where the game is less developed but roots have been established; mostly amateur and semiprofessional teams; Italy, Australia, and the Netherlands
  • Tier 3 are countries where tentative footing has been established, or the game has been recently introduced; South Africa, England, and Germany

MLB treats Tier 1 countries with an economic focus while Tier 2 and 3 countries require a more hands-on approach with Pitch, Hit and Run programs from youths and targeted MLB programming to not only introduce the players but much more importantly introduce the basics of the game. Klein highlights that MLB needs to find a way to metamorphisize into an international brand, something very tricky for a sport sold as “America’s pastime.”

One of the shining examples of fostering the international brand is the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are pioneers in the expansion of baseball beginning with their lead in integrating baseball all the way through their efforts to bring Japanese baseball to the United States. The Dodgers manias have run the gamut from Jackiemania (Robinson and African-Americans) to Sandymania (Koufax and a Jewish superstar) to Fernandomania (Valenzuela and Mexico) to Nomomania (Hideo and Japan). What underpins all of these international forays is one thing, marketing. The Dodgers have not wasted their opportunities internationally, capitalizing from a marketing standpoint wherever they have made their presence known around the globe. From Spanish-language TV/radio to advertising locally in Japan, the Dodgers have made every effort to bring the Dodgers brand name to new locales.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is the small market Kansas City Royals, who due to economic challenges have been forced to learn how to “shop without a credit card.” They introduced the first MLB academy (within the US) driven to not only find and develop overlooked talent but also provide them with an outside of baseball education. This academy is the template MLB is trying to duplicate with their RBI program. Additionally, the Royals have been forced to beat the bushes in places like the Dominican Republic in order to find higher risk/reward players that the more established (read, large market) teams may have missed. Kansas City has also struck out into the Tier 3 areas that most MLB teams ignore due to the lack of a fundamental baseball foundation. The Royals have become the face of baseball in a place like South Africa, where they spend more time/money teaching the South Africans how to play baseball rather than culling an established talent pool for potential major league talent.

Klein then turns the lens from MLB and its teams to the countries where the globalization efforts are working or other areas where there is still much work to accomplish. The Dominican Republic (DR) is the 800 pound gorilla internationally. Baseball is an industry in the DR. From their locally bankrolled academies to the overwhelming influence of buscones, the DR has provided a near endless pipeline of not only major leaguers, but more importantly major league stars. Japan was his next focus, where he detailed the love/hate relationship Japanese professional baseball has with MLB. Nippon Professional Baseball sees MLB as competition but cannot seem to escape the need to cultivate a pipeline for players from MLB (e.g. Randy Bass or Cecil Fielder) while at the same time reaping an economic benefit of their posting system, selling the right to negotiate with Japanese players to MLB (e.g. Ichiro Suzuki). Klein then investigates MLB’s European and South African presences where the focus is economic, but more grassroots. MLB is attempting to cultivate a fan base/talent pool in these countries in hopes of uncovering new revenue streams through developing hometown favorites for these countries to identify with.

Klein does a remarkable job of painting the picture of where MLB is and recommends several steps of where MLB needs to go to globalize the sport. It is certainly worth the read for anyone interested in an expanded view of MLB as a business entity and what you could expect as part of the globalization effort.

How does this all apply to what Stan Kasten wants to do with the Nationals?

The signing of Esmailyn Gonzalez was an important first step. But what is of considerable more value is the relationship with Jose Rijo in the Dominican Republic. It cannot be understated how important a local presence is to establishing roots within a country. While we are left to wait to see if Gonzalez develops as the Nationals hope, Kasten has taken the most important step towards cultivating a successful Dominican presence.

While the Dominican process is underway, there is an equally important relationship that requires the Nationals attention in Asia. This is not only from a player development perspective but also (and probably more importantly to ownership) an economic perspective. While the assigning of scout Bill Singer in Asia to identify prospective players is beneficial, there is much more to be done to truly put Kasten’s international pronouncements into reality. What the Nationals need to do in Asia, specifically Japan is to identify their “Jose Rijo” there. Succes will be hard to come by if they do not identify a local presence there as a conduit to ultimate success. There remains in Japan a fear/mistrust of gaijin and that can realistically only be alleviated by cultivating a relationship with a Japanese team. The New York Yankees have such a relationship with the Yomouri Giants. Their relationship includes exchanges of information regarding players, coaching methods (inlcuding coach exchange programs), and the identifying of players by both sides in an unofficial sort of player exchange at the minor league level. The Yankees have even built on this Asian partnership by entering into a relationship with Chinese baseball. The Nationals must enter into a similar type of arrangement if they hope to compete on an international scale.

Finally, as odd as it sounds, the Nationals need to take a lesson from the Kansas City Royals. They need to think outside of the box and foster a grassroots effort in Tier 3 countries. They need to identify an untapped or underserved area, such as Spain or Brazil or India and become the face of baseball there. Their designs should be to open up the game to new fans who think of the Washington Nationals when they think about baseball.

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2007 Prospect Guides

Each year I purchase three prospect guides/handbooks for an outsider/experts opinion on the Nationals farm system. Each one looks at the minor leagues from a slightly different perspective.

Baseball America is the most well-known of the three. Their 2007 Prospect Handbook is compiled by the folks in Durham, NC. They rely on both their major/minor league connections thoroughout baseball as well as their own live observations. If you pushed me to put them into a sabermetrics versus traditional scouting camp, I’d be inclined to say they place more emphasis on the scouting than strict statistical analysis. On the surface, their review of the Nationals farm system is a bit disheartening, where they are ranked as the 30th organization in the Talent Rankings (a drop from #24 in 2006).

This should really come as no surprise considering the organization was under Major League Baseball ownership for four seasons. New ownership has committed publicly to revitalizing the franchise via scouting and player development.

Baseball America shows the Nationals have the initial pieces in place, but they now need to ensure the right personnel are in place to develop these players into viable major league prospects. Only time will tell if that is the case. The lay out their analysis by team so it is easier to do one stop reviews of the Nationals organization. Additionally, Aaron Fitt provides an organization review that includes 2006 performance, organizational leaders, best tools, a projected 2010 lineup, last years top 20 prospects, top prospects of the decade, top draft picks of the decade, and largest bonuses in club history. There is a minor league depth chart as well as an analysis of the 2006 draft (with thumbnails of the 2003-05 draft, with respective budgets spent for the first 10 rounds). Each of the top 30 players receives a third of a page profile that discusses their background, strengths, weaknesses, and an initial forecast for 2007 placement. Many criticize Baseball America for their focus on projectability and how quickly they allow recent draft picks/international signings to ascend their rankings. I’ve purchased every edition of the Handbook because I value their consistency from year to year. Their connections within the industry allow them to get unbiased perspectives on players because they are not only receiving comments from the player’s own team, but also honest appraisals from the competition. If you are interested in a scout’s eye view of the organization, Baseball America is the best choice.

The second prospect related book I have is John Sickels’ The Baseball Prospect Book 2007. John uses both sabermetrics and traditional scouting methods, but he relies more upon the statistics to provide his perspective. Sickels expands the traditional five tools to seven skills for position players. They are:

  1. Controlling the strikezone
  2. Hitting for power
  3. Hitting for average
  4. Offensive speed
  5. Fielding range
  6. Fielding reliability
  7. Throwing utility

For pitchers, John uses:

  • Strikeout/walk ratio
  • Strikeout/innings pitched ratio
  • Hits/innings pitched ratio
  • Home runs/innings pitched ratio

He then translates his analysis into a letter grade, from C to A.

Grade A prospects are the elite. 
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers
Grade C prospects are guys with the skills necessary but have some question marks

Unlike Baseball America, John has his players listed alphabetically, pitchers and hitters interspersed. He lists all of the Nationals prospects he reviewed in the back of the book along with their corresponding letter grade, but there is no index to quickly find a profile. I value John’s book for its numbers-based analysis, he quickly an easily explains to the reader what the numbers say about a particular prospect. Particulary how their ratio statistics compare. Be it from year to year or based upon the quality of the league, level of talent, ballparks where the stats where compiled. John’s reviews are much more conversational and his personality/sense of humor come across in many of the profiles. If you have a sabermetric affinity, John’s book is a clear choice.

The final book I received was the 2007 Minor League Baseball Analyst. Deric McKamey of Baseball HQ also states it’s a blend of sabermetrics and traditional scouting, but given his association with Baseball HQ, his analysis is geared more towards use by those playing fantasy baseball. The Analyst is split up into two parts, alphabetically by hitters and pitchers. He lists the appropriate statistics as well as anticipated MLB debut, projected roles, a ‘reliability/potential’ ranking, and a brief blurb on each player.

For the hitters, he ranks:

  • Power
  • Batting average
  • Speed
  • Defense

Whereas with pitchers he looks at their pitching repertoire. While this may initially turn off those who don’t play fantasy baseball, in my opinion, Deric offers the best balance of both scouting and sabermetrics. The only drawback I find is that there isn’t enough in-depth discussions of strengths/weaknesses. For someone interested in a quick big picture view of minor leaguers.

Each book is geared towards a slightly different audience and rather than point at one over another, I’ll leave it to the reader to make the selection based upon what they want to get out of their investment.

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