Nationals Farm Authority

Jim Callis of Baseball America takes his first stab at a mock draft …

1. Rays - SS Tim Beckham out of HS in GA
2. Pirates - 3B Pedro Alvarez from Vanderbilt
3. Royals - CA Buster Posey from Florida State
4. Orioles - LHSP Brian Matusz from San Diego
5. Giants - 1B Justin Smoak from South Carolina
6. Marlins - CA Kyle Skipworth out of HS in CA
7. Reds - RHSP Aaron Crow from Missouri
8. White Sox - SS Gordon Beckham from Georgia
9. Nationals - 1B Yonder Alonso from Miami

here’s what he has to say about the Nats

Washington GM Jim Bowden loves to draft upside, and California high school outfielder/righthander Aaron Hicks could be mighty tempting. Advanced pitching is a greater concern, and the Nationals could have their choice of the second tier. Scheppers might have been the frontrunner before he got hurt, so that could leave Tulane righthander Shooter Hunt and Eastern Kentucky lefty Christian Friedrich if the Nats go pitching. In the end, Alonso’s bat may be too good to pass up.

The only other name on the board at this point worthy of consideration beyond Alonso, Scheppers, Hunt and Friedrich is HS 1B Eric Hosmer.

• Future Focus - Catchers
• Future Focus - First Basemen
• Future Focus - Second Baseman
• Future Focus - Third Baseman

As a reminder, the Nats picks are as follows:

• 1st round: #9
• 2nd round: #55
• 3rd round: #87
• 4th round & out: #121 +30 (i.e. 151, 181, etc)

The first nine picks are

1. Tampa Bay
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Baltimore
5. San Francisco
6. Florida
7. Cincinnati
8. Chicago White Sox
9. Washington

The number of total picks in each round is as follows:

• 1st round: 1-30
• Supplemental 1st: 31-46
• 2nd round: 47-78 (two extra picks due to unsigned 2007 2nd rounders)
• 3rd round: 79-108
• Supplemental 3rd: 109-112
• 4th round: 113-142
• 5th round and on: +30 to each end

Shortstop. It’s the position where you typically find some of the best players in the draft. It’s also a position where the Nationals have an organizational need. The 2008 draft has a nice mixture of established college bats and promising high schoolers. With an assist from MiLB.com, Pefect Game Crosschecker (PGCC), and Baseball America, here are the top 12 shortstops:

1. Tim Beckham - Entering the 2008 season, this Beckham was considered an odds on favorite to go #1 overall in the draft. The 18-year old right-handed hitter has drawn comparisons to two other HS SS, the Upton brothers (BJ and Justin). PGCC describes him as the best true shortstop in the draft. He’s a five-tool player who projects to remain a shortstop moving forward. I find it difficult to believe he’d be there at #9 but if he is, Beckham is a no-brainer for the Nationals. His commitment to USC (CA) is not considered an impediment to getting him signed.
2. Gordon Beckham - The 21-year old switch hitter has been coming on strong all season. His performance for the University of Georgia thus far has been amazing. Over 52 games played, he is hitting an astounding 401/508/817 with 22 home runs, 55 RBI, and 16/17 stolen bases in a tough SEC. Scouts were impressed by his performance in the Cape Cod League last season (a wood bat league) where he hit 284/370/529 with 9 home runs over 42 games (155AB). PGCC scouting report entering the season … “Beckham has the knack for the acrobatic play on defense and the big home run on offense, but needs to become steadier on both sides of the ball.” Another guy who seems unlikely to slide until the 9th selection but as with Tim (no relation), he’d be a great pick for the Nationals. In my opinion, if both were available at #9, I’d lean towards Gordon who has demonstrated his abilities against higher levels of competition.
3. Casey Kelly -The 18-year old Kelly is one of the better athletes in the upcoming draft. Scouts rave about him as a SS, a RHP and crossing sports, QB. He’s committed to University of Tennessee. He’s all about projectability at this point given how raw he is developmentally. The son of former major leaguer Pat Kelly, Casey is a likely pick in the 20-30 range of the first round. I’d imagine if he slips farther than that, signability becomes a question.
4. Brett Lawrie - The 18-year old Lawrie is likely to be the first Canadian player drafted this year. Scouts are impreseed with his above average raw power. Right now he’s playing shortstop but there have been reports that scouts see him moving to catcher as a professional. Signs now suggest he’s a late first round selection. Odds are he will not be around much past the supplemental first round. If he’s still on hte board at #55, he’d be worth a gamble (depending upon how they go with #9)
5. Tyler Ladendorf -The 20-year old Ladendorf might be the top junior college player in the upcoming draft. He is hitting 0.542 with 16 home runs and 31/32 stolen bases for Howard College (TX). He’s been drafted in the 34th round in each of the last two drafts and it’s a lock he’ll go significantly earlier than that in 2008. He had a severe shoulder injury a few years back but has bounced back well enough that he’ll come off the board in the late 1st/early supplemental first round. Like Lawrie, he’d be a great value at #55.
6. Reese Havens - The 21-year old lefthander is currently hitting 363/489/637 with 15 home runs and 48 RBI for the Gamecocks. He is often overshadowed by teammate Justin Smoak who is a likely top 10 pick. But Havens bat makes him worthy of consideration in the late first round of the draft. PGCC scouting … “Though he made all the routine plays and committed just six errors in 41 games at shortstop last summer in the Cape Cod League, questions persist whether Havens has the speed and range to remain at shortstop in the long term. But his new-found power and hitting prowess makes a potential move to third base more palatable.” It’s another instance of a player likely being off the board before the Nats pick at #55. But I’ll echo it again, a great value if on the board at #55. 
7. Anthony Hewitt - Hewitt plays for Salisbury School in Connecticut. PGCC reports “Though he has faced substandard pitching, Hewitt has the most explosive bat in the Northeast, college or high school, and his other tools are first-round quality.” The latest conjecture has him as a supplemental first rounder. The 19-year old is committed to Vanderbilt.
8. Destin Hood -The 18-year old Hood is another two sport star. He has a football scholarship waiting for him at the University of Alabama. Hood is very raw, while he currently plays SS, a move to the OF is likely in the future. His football commitment seems likely to lead to a slide to the second round. While he’d be an intriguing option for the Nationals at #55, the Nats might not take another prep guy who is a likely outfielder. At #55, there will still be value on the board that makes this a difficult gamble. If he slides even further due to his football commitment/signing demands, this is the type of guy the Nats could draft late a la Jack McGeary and try and steal a guy in the later rounds.
9. Brandon Crawford - The 20-year old Crawford has had a down year at UCLA, hitting 280/374/433 over 49 games with 52 strikeouts in 189AB. Entering the season, PGCC scouting read … “Crawford is a potential five-tool talent with excellent defensive skills and some power in his bat, along with a polished approach to the game. He struggled hitting with wood in the Cape last summer, which worries scouts.” He appears likely to be on the board at #55 and might be an option for them there.
10. Ryan Flaherty - Another player who has faded into the background due to a high profile teammate, the 21-year old Flaherty is hitting 321/412/547 playing in the shadow of Pedro Alvarez. PGCC scouting … “his future may be as a utility player as his range is a little short for shortstop and arm just playable from the hole. Flaherty has a sound approach at the plate. He can work counts efficiently but lacks the bat speed to hit for power—especially with wood.” He’s likely available at #55 but that might be a bit early. Could be worth a shot at #87.
11. Harold Martinez -The 18-year old Martinez has probably slid the most of all the players in 2008. Entering the season, scouts viewed him as a mid first rounder, Martinez has slid into the late second round according to some reports. His performance thus far in 2008 have not lived up to scout’s lofty expectations and that subsequent slide may make him more likely to honor his commitment to the University of Miami (FL) and re-enter the draft in three years. He’s another guy like Hood who would be worthy of a fifth or sixth round gamble with hopes of buying him out of his college commitment.
12. Niko Vazquez -The 19-year old Vazquez is another project. Scouts believe he has the potential to develop into a 20 HR middle infielder. But those same scouts worry he won’t have the quickness to stick at SS. He’s a top 100 guy but might not be worth the pick at #87.

• Future Focus - Catchers
• Future Focus - First Basemen
• Future Focus - Second Baseman

As a reminder, the Nats picks are as follows:

• 1st round: #9
• 2nd round: #55
• 3rd round: #87
• 4th round & out: #121 +30 (i.e. 151, 181, etc)

The first nine picks are

1. Tampa Bay
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Baltimore
5. San Francisco
6. Florida
7. Cincinnati
8. Chicago White Sox
9. Washington

The number of total picks in each round is as follows:

• 1st round: 1-30
• Supplemental 1st: 31-46
• 2nd round: 47-78 (two extra picks due to unsigned 2007 2nd rounders)
• 3rd round: 79-108
• Supplemental 3rd: 109-112
• 4th round: 113-142
• 5th round and on: +30 to each end

It’s true that the Nationals are not in need of a thridbaseman at the major league level. With Ryan Zimmerman manning the hot corner, the Nats are in the enviable position of having a position covered more than competently for the next three plus seasons at a minimum. However, there is always room for more depth in the farm system and there are a handful of college third baseman that would be attractive to the Nats if they are available. One as a potential first rounder and three or four others who could be good value selections with their second rounder. I’m again going to lean on MiLB.com along with PGCrosschecker, and Baseball America for some background on the potential 2008 draft picks.

1. Pedro Alvarez - Entering the 2008, season, the 21-year old Alvarez was the consensus top prospect in the draft. A broken hamate bone short-circuited the start of his season at Vanderbilt but the talent remains. In the 25 games since he returned, he is hitting 311/416/538 with 18 homers and 57RBI. He has the talent to remain at 3B moving forward but some scouts believe he may slide over to 1B or to a corner outfield spot. His bat plays well at any of those positions. There have been rumblings that the Alvarez might slide some in the draft and if by some miracle he were to be there at #9, I’d hope the Nationals would grab him. But the odds he lasts past the top 3 or 4 picks seems remote at best.
2. Ethan Martin -Better known as a right-handed pitching prospect, the 18-year old Martin was initially considered a two-way player. Per MiLB.com, he can throw “three above-average pitches for strikes” As a third baseman, he is a raw prospect who projects well. Martin is committed to Clemson, but is likely to sign if drafted in the first round. He is an overdraft at #9 and won’t make it out of the first round. I’d imagine he goes in the 15-20 range.
3. Lonnie Chisenhall - The 19-year old Chisenhall was considered a top talent in 2006 out of high school. PGCC had the following scouting report on him back then “++ LH bat with a ++ approach to hitting; ++ in BP early in year and gradually took power/hitting ability into games; uses the whole field . . . some scouts believe he is one of the best bats in the country—ranking ahead of even Chris Marrero and Travis Snider . . . getting just a bat only for some; he’s heavy legged, doesn’t run that well and is not overly athletic . . . a SS in HS, he’ll be a 3B at next level . . . on mound, FB is 88-91/92 with + movement, CU at 74-75 . . . a gamer and hard-nosed kid.” Drafted by the Pirates in the 12th round (due to signability concerns), Chisenhall ran into legal problems in college that led to his (and Nick Fuller, another top prospect) from the South Carolina team. They were arrested on grand larceny and burglary charges in connection with the theft of some computers. The lefthanded Chisenhall is playing for Pitt (NC) Community College where he is currently hitting 401/511/769 mainly playing 3B (he also pitches). There are makeup questions, for certain, but the talent is there. I’d imagine he’ll go some time in the supplemental first round but would be worth strong consideration at #55 on talent alone.
4. James Darnell - PGCC has the following scouting report, “Darnell is a complete package, but power is understandably his best tool. He attacks balls when he gets a pitch he can drive, and his balls leave the park quickly. Darnell also has above-average arm strength and adapted well to playing third base in 2007, both in college and summer ball, after spending the previous year in the outfield.” Darnell is currently hitting 309/373/583 with 15 homers and 65 RBI over 48 games for the Gamecocks. He might not be able to remain at 3B going forward and might ahve to move to a corner outfield spot. This is getting repetitive but he is without question a value pick at #55.
5. Conor Gillaspie - The 20-year old Gillaspie is currently batting 398/488/661 for the Wichita State Shockers. While he throws right-handed, Gillaspie has added value as a lefthanded hitter. PGCC scouting report …”He consistently hit the ball hard to all fields and showed much more power with wood than he did during the spring (.325-6-53). Gillaspie is a steady defender at third base but only an average athlete.” In there most recent draft rankings, Baseball America has Gillaspie ranked #23 overall. He appears to be a guy who could go anywhere from the mid-first round to mid-second round. My gut says he comes off the board in the supplemental first round. Likely a MLB team who traditionally focuses on college players. If available at #55, a value pick.
6. Zach Cox -Another two-way high schooler the 18-year old Cox has committed to the University of Arkansas. PG scouting report reads “Strong, mature frame. Top 2-way prospect. Heavy FB to 93, hard sweeping SL, fast arm, high energy delivery. Power hitting 3B, short swing, has bat speed/juice in bat, squares up very well. Quick actioned athlete, can play D at high level. Could excel either way” I’d imagine he’ll be around at #55 and is likely ranked right around that level overall.
7. Logan Fosythe - The 21-year old righthander is currently hitting 311/431/483 for the Razorbacks. PGCC scouting report … “Forsythe may be the most well-rounded player in college baseball, based on what he brings to the field in hitting, power, plate discipline, defense, base running and leadership.” He looks like a late second round option. #55 is likely too early but he’d be an intriguing option at #87 in the 3rd round.
8. Jermaine Curtis - The 20-year old Curtis is hitting 316/442/456 for UCLA. PGCC scouting report … “Curtis won’t blow you away with his raw tools, but he plays hard, has excellent makeup and finds a way to get the most out of his ability. He has a good line-drive swing … He should add power as he continues to get stronger. He’s an above-average defender at third base with good hands and excels at coming in on balls, though his arm strength—his weakest tool—is considered just marginal.” It appears a move to 2B might be in his future. He looks like a 3rd rounder. At #121 he might be available.
9. Ricky Oropesa -One more high schooler. One more two-way player. Though with the 18-year old Oropesa, his future appears to be on offense. Scouts rank him as one of the top high school pwer bats in the draft. His father was a member of the Cuban national track & field, baseball and basket ball teams in 1948. He’s committed to USC (SoCal) and there could be concerns about his signability. His talent makes him a second round option but the concerns about signability might lead to a slide into the 4th round or later. This is a potential 5th or 6th round gamble if a team believes they can encourage him to forego college with a large bonus.
10. Alex Buchholz - Blue Hen pride! I’m including him just because he plays for my alma mater (Universtiy of Delaware). He is currently hitting 331/407/523 in 38 games for the Hens. PGCC scouting … “He shows power to all fields and has a very strong throwing arm that has landed him at third base this season after spending his first two years at Delaware at second.” He is likely a fifth round selection or later.

• Future Focus - Catchers
• Future Focus - First Basemen

As a reminder, the Nats picks are as follows:

• 1st round: #9
• 2nd round: #56
• 3rd round: #87
• 4th round & out: #121 +30 (i.e. 151, 181, etc)

The first nine picks are

1. Tampa Bay
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Baltimore
5. San Francisco
6. Florida
7. Cincinnati
8. Chicago White Sox
9. Washington

The number of total picks in each round is as follows:

• 1st round: 1-30
• Supplemental 1st: 31-46
• 2nd round: 47-78 (two extra picks due to unsigned 2007 2nd rounders)
• 3rd round: 79-108
• Supplemental 3rd: 109-112
• 4th round: 113-142
• 5th round and on: +30 to each end

Major league teams most time do not draft 2B early. The most typical path for many 2B is relocating 3B or SS to that side of the bag (that’s not to say it doesn’t happen … see Utley, Chase). This year’s class is really shallow.  With an assist from PGCrosschecker (PGCC), here are the top two second base prospects available in the upcoming MLB First Year Player Draft and one other name worth watching:

1. Jemile Weeks - The 21-year old brother of Milwaukee Brewer Rickie Weeks, Jemile is likely not as promising a prospect as his brother. He is currently batting 389/459/698 for the University of Miami. His defense at 2B is still open to question and his future might be in center field. He could sneak into the back half of the first round but seems likely to come off the board in the supplemental first round, at the latest. Meaning he won’t be available for the Nationals.
2. David Adams - The 20-year old right-hander is the starting 2B for the University of Virginia where he currently hitting 303/393/455 with 6 homers and 10/12 stolen bases. PGCC has the following comment “He centers pitches consistently and the ball jumps off his bat. Scouts believe it’s just a matter of time before his power develops. He primarily needs to add lift to his swing—and could become another Jeff Kent-type of player once he does … He’s more than adequate in the field and mainly needs to improve his throwing mechanics” Like Weeks, Adams is a supplemental first round selection and also not an option for the Nationals.
3. Blake Stouffer - The senior turned down the Cincinnati Reds who drafted him in the fourth round of the 2007 draft. As the starter for Texas A&M, Stouffer is currently hitting 264/393/374 with 13/16 stolen bases. It’s a disappointing season for him and has likely impacted his draft status. While the skills might not be off the charts, scouts see him as a “ball player” meaning he’ll give it everything he has every time out there. The Nationals did not shy away from college seniors last year (Adrian Alaniz, Bill Rhinehart, Aaron Seuss, Jake Rogers, Jeff Mandel, Dan Lyons, Travis Reagan, Jeff McCollum, and Boomer Whiting were all college seniors drafted in 2007). If Stouffer is still on the board in the sixth round or later, he might be worth a gamble.

Allan Simpson of PGCC has his first of what will be many takes on the 2008 draft. In it, he projects the Nationals will select HS 1B Eric Hosmer out of top ranked American Heritage High School. Other names available at #9 are HS CA Kyle Skipworth, HS RHPs Gerrit Cole & Tim Melville, and college 1B Yonder Alonso.

Per Baseball America, MLB has re-reinterpreted a rule that has a (slight) impact on the Nationals in this year’s draft.

This is the first year in which teams will receive a compensation choice for failing to sign second-round picks. The Braves get a pick for not signing Georgia righthander Joshua Fields (now back with the Bulldogs) and the Red Sox get one for not landing Alabama high school first baseman Hunter Morris (now at Auburn).

Initially, MLB said the two clubs would receive choices corresponding to the ones immediately following their picks from 2007. That gave Atlanta the 70th overall pick and Boston the 85th overall pick.

During the offseason, MLB reinterpreted the rule and decided that the teams would get choices corresponding to the ones immediately following their place in the second round last June. That gave the Braves the sixth pick in the second round (No. 52 overall) and the Red Sox the 21st pick in the round (No. 67 overall).

Earlier this month, MLB reversed course and decided that its first interpretation was correct. Atlanta will get the No. 70 choice and Boston will get the No. 85 choice.  

Long story short. The Nationals see their 2008 2nd round selection move from #56 to #55 (complete draft order here).

No other Nats picks change.

No major impact.

Future Focus - Catchers

As a reminder, the Nats picks are as follows:

• 1st round: #9
• 2nd round: #56
• 3rd round: #87
• 4th round & out: #121 +30 (i.e. 151, 181, etc)

The first nine picks are

1. Tampa Bay
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Baltimore
5. San Francisco
6. Florida
7. Cincinnati
8. Chicago White Sox
9. Washington

The number of total picks in each round is as follows:

• 1st round: 1-30
• Supplemental 1st: 31-46
• 2nd round: 47-78 (two extra picks due to unsigned 2007 2nd rounders)
• 3rd round: 79-108
• Supplemental 3rd: 109-112
• 4th round: 113-142
• 5th round and on: +30 to each end

Once again, with the assist from PGCrosschecker, here are some of the top first base prospects available in the upcoming MLB First Year Player Draft:

1. Eric Hosmer - The 18-year old lefthanded hitting 1B is a top 5 player on talent but could potentially slide some if the rumors of his agent (Scott Boras) and contract demands ($7 million) are true. First base is typically not a position you see teams going at the top of the first round, but Hosmer’s hitting ability (well above average power) make him an exception to the rule. I honestly think he’ll be off the board before the Nationals select at #9 (perhaps Baltimore at #4 or San Francisco at #5). If he is still on the board for the Nationals, he’d be hard to pass up. Yes, Chris Marrero is mentioned as the 1B of the future but as I have written over and over, a team needs to take the best player available (BPA).
2. Justin Smoak -The 21-year old switch-hitting Smoak is the top college 1B in the upcoming draft. He is currently hitting 388/502/781 with 16 homers and 48 RBI in 42 games for the University of South Carolina. Defensively, his size and range limit him to 1B but his hitting ability from both sides of the plate looks very likely to translate to the major leagues. Scouts project him with 35+ HR power. He’s another player who seems a lead pipe lock to go in the the top 10 picks and realistically has a chance to be on the board at #9 for the Nationals. If it comes to a choice between Hosmer and Smoak, I’ll give the slight nod to the switch-hitter who is closer to what he is likely to be.
3. Yonder Alonso -The 21-year old lefty is the starting 1B for the University of Miami. He is currently hitting 379/548/742 with 11 homers and 42 RBI over 38 games played with an impressive 47BB to only 19K over 124AB. His power is legitimate and scouts believe he could develop into a 20-25 HR guy. The only concern I’ve read is that he might be best served as a designated hitter. I believe that #9 is too early for Alonso as there will be better players available when its the Nats pick. This is not to say he’s that far off. I imagine he’ll end up as a mid to late first round selection (20-25).
4. Dennis Raben (also OF) -A Hurricane teammate of Alonso, the 20-year old lefthander plays outfield for Miami. His 2008 season start was delayed by a back injury. He has batted 298/434/543 with 7 homers and 27RBI over 28 games since his return. While he currently plays RF, his size/range may lead to a future move to 1B. Number 9 is too early. I believe he’ll be drafted in close proximity to Alonso in the 20-25 range of the draft.
5. Ike Davis (also OF & LHP) -The 21- year old is the son of former major league RHP Ron Davis. He is the starting 1B for the Arizona State Sun Devils but also closes for them from time to time. At the plate, he’s hitting 412/483/843 with 15 home runs and 62 RBI over 38 games. While on the mound, he’s 4-1 with 4 saves, 2.66 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 26K over 20 1/3 innings of work. His future is in the field where scouts see him as a 1B or corner outfielder with above average hitting and power. Not a gamechanger but a solid contributor. If he’s around for the Nationals second round pick #56, he’d be a great value but odds are he’ll go towards the end of the first round or someplace in the supplemental first.
6. Brett Wallace (also 3B) -Many scouts view the 21-year old Wallace as the best pure hitter in the draft. His mix of plate discipline, ability to make contact, and extra base power make him an intriguing option. Another instance of back-to-back teammates, Wallace starts at 3B for the Sun Devils where he is currently hitting 390/529/692 with 11 homers and 50RBI in 39 games. The belief is his future is at 1B given his footwork/range. Much like Davis, Wallace is likely going to be off the board before the Nationals select in the second round but like Davis would be a great value pick at #56.
7. Allan Dykstra (also 3B) -The 20-year old lefthanded hitter is currently hitting 328/531/657 with 12 homers and 32 RBI in 41 games for Wake Forest. From PG Crosschecker (PGCC), “[He] has big-time raw power. But he also has a very discerning eye and an excellent overall approach to hitting. He has learned to hit with more authority to the opposite field and become less passive at the plate. He is also an adequate defender at first base, and excels at picking balls out of the dirt.” Dykstra could very well be available at #56.
8. David Cooper (also OF) -The 21-year old Cooper is the starting first baseman for the Cal Bears. The lefty is currently hitting 392/481/778 with 16 homers and 47RBI. Per PGCC, “Cooper can do just about everything you could ask for with the bat, whether it be hit for average, hit for power or get on base.” He could stick at first base or move to a corner outfield slot or possibly a future as a DH. A team could grab him for his bat alone in the supplemental first but I’m guessing he comes off the board in the middle of the second round.
9. Shane Peterson (also OF) -The 20-year old Peterson is the youngest non-high schooler on this list. The lefty is hitting 373/471/585 for Long Beach State this season. His future position is still open to debate, he doesn’t look like he’ll have enough power for 1B but might fit the mold of a solid corner outfielder. This is the point where the drop off starts. Peterson looks like a mid-third rounder. I’m not sure if it’s a value pick for the Nationals at #87.
10. Jared Bolden (also OF) -I’m going to go with somewhat of a local guy, the 21-year old 1B/OF plays for Virginia Commonwealth. He his currently hitting 323/408/535 with four homers and 10/12 stolen bases. Once again from PGCC, “Bolden has a quality swing with bat speed and power potential … He also has above-average speed.” He’s a late fourth rounder. If he is still on the board in round 5 or alter for the Nats, he might be worth a look.

In Peter Gammons most recent blog posting (Insider access required), he mentions the possibility that the Tampa Bay Rays could select Florida State catcher Buster Posey with the #1 overall selection in the 2008 First Year Player Draft.

Baseball America’s most recent draft rankings (April 7) had Vanderbilt 3B Pedro Alvarez, San Diego LHP Brian Matusz, Missouri RHP Aaron Crow, and Griffin (GA) HS SS Tim Beckham as the prohibitive favorites for the first four players selected. Posey was ranked #7.

The Nationals select ninth overall in the June 5 draft.

The Washington Nationals have made tremendous strides in rebuilding their farm system from the damage caused during MLB’s stewardship.

The 2005 draft saw the addition of 3B Ryan Zimmerman and LHSP John Lannan, both of whom are contributors for the Nationals 2008 season. Additionally, OF Justin Maxwell had a cup of coffee with the Nats at the end of the 2007 season.

The 2006 season saw the Nationals focus on high ceiling high school prospects which has infused the lower levels of the minor leagues with 1B Chris Marrero, RHSP Colton Willems, LHSP Glenn Gibson (who was subsequently dealt for OF Elijah Dukes who is the Nats #4 OF when he returns from the DL), IF Stephen King, and OF Stephen Englund.

Last year saw the Nats focus on pitching with arguably the strongest draft in MLB which netted them LHSPs Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker, & Jack McGeary along with RHSP Jordan Zimmermann. Additionally, the Nats grabbed a trio of high school bats with 3B Steve Souza, 2B Jake Smolinski, and RF Michael Burgess.

These strong drafts helped add depth to the Nationals at the corner infield/outfield and starting pitching. A team can never have too much depth in its organization as it develops personnel who can replace injured players at the major league level or be dealt to fill in weak spots. The areas where the Nats need the most depth are catching and middle infield. Let me be clear, the Nats should take the best player available when their selections come up in the 2008 draft. But if the debate is close and the players rate out comparably to the organization, the positional depth is a consideration the Nationals should not ignore.

Over the next couple of months, I am going to highlight, position by position, players the Nat might consider with their allotment of draft picks. As a reminder, the Nats picks are as follows:

• 1st round: #9
• 2nd round: #56
• 3rd round: #87
• 4th round & out: #121 +30 (i.e. 151, 181, etc)

The number of total picks in each round is as follows:

• 1st round: 1-30
• Supplemental 1st: 31-46
• 2nd round: 47-78 (two extra picks due to unsigned 2007 2nd rounders)
• 3rd round: 79-108
• Supplemental 3rd: 109-112
• 4th round: 113-142
• 5th round and on: +30 to each end

That being said, with the assist from PGCrosschecker, here are some of the top catching prospects available in the upcoming MLB First Year Player Draft:

1. Kyle Skipworth - Skipworth is an 18-year old left-handed hitting high schooler from California. He is the top catching prospect in this year’s draft. Not only does he possess above average defense but Skipworth also has the chance to develop into that very rare commodity, a catcher who can hit for both power and average. Skipworth has committed to Arizona State but given his proposed draft status seems very likely to sign. The standard caveats exist for any high schooler, a lot of things can change as they mature but he is a likely top 10 selection and very well may be available for the Nats with the #9 pick. 
2. Buster Posey - Skipworth is top high school catcher in the draft. Posey is his counterpart from the college ranks. The 21-year old right-handed hitting catcher is currently hitting 483/586/864 with the Florida State Seminoles. He is clearly farther along developmentally and is a likely top 15 selection. This is where a team gambles on the high schooler with more volatility (higher ceiling but more risk of not developing) versus a collegian with less future improvement, but more certainty in what he is going to be. It really is a matter of organizational philosophy because I think they value out that close.
3. Petey Paramore - The 21-year old switch-hitting catcher is currently hitting 328/482/464 for the Arizona State Sun Devils. Paramore’s calling card is his defense. He is one of the top defensive catchers in this years draft. On offense, he does not appear to project out for much power but has an above average eye at the plate. Paramore projects out as a second rounder and could very well be available when the Nats pick at #56.
4. Adrian Nieto - Another switch-hitter, scouts view the 18-year old Nieto as the second best prep catcher in the 2008 draft. As the scouting report mentions, his arm and power are considered above average. He is a work in progress along the lines of 2007 selection Derek Norris. He’s committed to the University of South Florida and seems a likely late second round selection. With the 2nd rounder (#56), it would likely be too early and he might not be there for the Nats in the 3rd round at #87
5. Tyler Chatwood -The 17-year old Chatwood is an intriguing prospect. He could be drafted as a RHP (most likely), OF, or CA (least likely). He currently throws in the mid-90s and controls a couple of pitches. That arm could also project out well as a corner outfielder or catcher. He’s committed to UCLA, so that might bear watching in contract negotiations. He’s a guy who could go anywhere from the supplemental first round to the late second round depending upon what he is drafted as (might go higher as a pitcher). As a catcher, he is more of a late 2nd rounder like Nieto.
6. Antonio Jimenez (no link) - A 17-year old right-handed hitter. Not much I can find on him. This is a recommendation from PG Crosschecker. From what I can dig up (thank you Google), he has a nice balance of defense and offense. They have him in the 70-75 range which would make him a value pick in the 3rd round.
7. Jason Castro -The 20-year old left-handed hitting catcher is currently batting 347/398/590 for Stanford. Scouting reports show his defense as a work in progress. His power right now is average but projects out well. He looks like a catcher who might be available with the #87 pick as a slight overdraft, but would be a great value in any round thereafter.
8. Preston Clark -The 22-year old right-handed hitting Clark is currently batting 261-396/514 for the Texas Longhorns. Clark’s calling card is his defense. He is the top defensive catcher entering the 2008 draft. His bat is still a work in progress. Clark looks like a late third rounder.
9. Tim Federowicz - The 20-year old right-handed hitting Federowicz is currently batting 300/380/431 for the University of North Carolina.  He’s a solid both on offense and defense. Teams could also draft him as a potential RHRP. He seems to slot into the late 3rd round/supplemental 3rd round.
10. Jordan Swagerty - The last one on this list is the switch-hitting high schooler from Texas. Like Federowicz, he profiles as both a RHP and a catcher. He is all about projectability at this point. Also like Federowicz, he’s also a late 3rd round/supplemental 3rd round.

I’m going to start looking at what the 2008 draft holds for the Nationals who pick at #9 in the first round, #56 in the second round, #87 in the third round, and #121 (+30) in the rounds four and out. Given that the Nationals realistically have one “high” pick, here are the #9 selections over the last 20 seasons (players in bold made the majors) to try and figure out what to expect there.

• 1988: Chicago Cubs drafted college 2B Ty Griffin- Griffin never made it past Double-A ball and was out of the minor leagues after the 1995 season. (Other names drafted close after [10-15 range]: college 3B Robin Ventura at #10, college LHP Pat Combs at #11, college 1B Tino Martinez at #14, & college SS Royce Clayton at #15)
• 1989: California Angels drafted college LHP Kyle Abbott- Abbott had a cup of coffee in the majors with the Angels & Phillies in 1991-92 but was out of the league by 1996. (Other names: HS CA Charles Johnson at #10 [unsigned], HS OF Calvin Murray at #11 [unsigned], HS RHP Jeff Juden at #12, and college CA Brent Mayne at #13)
• 1990: Los Angeles Dodgers selected HS LHP Ron Walden- All I could find were three appearances in the Florida State League in 1993. So suffice it to say, not a great return on investment. (Other names: HS OF Carl Everett at #10, HS IF Shane Andrews at #11, HS RHPs Todd Ritchie [#12] and Todd Van Poppel [#14], and college LHP Donovan Osborne)
• 1991: Baltimore Orioles drafted college OF Mark Smith- Smith was a journeyman IF/OF who played portions of eight seasons in the major leagues, primarily as a bench guy. (Other names: college RHP Tyler Greene at #10, HS LHP Shawn Estes at #11, college OF Doug Glanville at #12, HS OF Manny Ramirez at #13, and HS 1B Cliff Floyd at #14)
• 1992: New York Mets selected HS SS [yes SS] Preston Wilson- The first really successful pick from this list. Wilson moved to the OF in the minors and has had a very solid 10 year major league career, capped a 2nd place finish in the 1999 Rookie of the Year voting and an All-Star appearance in 2003. (Other names: college SS Michael Tucker at #10 and college LHP Ron Villone at #14)
• 1993: Detroit Tigers selected HS SS Matt Brunson- Brunson maxed out in the Florida State League in 1996. (Other names: college OF/P Brooks Kieschnick at #12, college LHP Billy Wagner at #12, HS 1B Derrek Lee at #14, & HS RHP Chris Carpenter at #15)
• 1994: Cincinnati Reds selected college LHP C.J. Nitkowski- Nitkowski had a successful major league career as a journeyman LHP. His final major league appearance was with the Nationals in 2005. (Other names: HS RHP Jaret Wright at #10, college SS Nomar Garciaparra at #12, HS CA Paul Konerko at #13, and college CA Jason Varitek at #14)
• 1995: Milwaukee Brewers selected college OF Geoff Jenkins-Another selection, like Wilson that has had a solid major league career. Jenkins is in 11th season in the major leagues with the Phillies in 2008. (Other names: HS SS Chad Hermansen, college RHP Matt Morris, college LHP Mark Redman, and HS OF Reggie Taylor)
• 1996: Florida Marlins selected college OF Mark Kotsay- Again, a solid major league career for another college draft pick. Kotsay has played for twelve seasons (including 2008). He is currently the starting CF for the Atlanta Braves. (Other names: HS 3B Eric Chavez at #10, HS RHP Adam Eaton at #11, and HS LHP Bobby Seay at #12)
• 1997: Minnesota Twins selected HS SS Michael Cuddyer- It took Cuddyer some time to stick in the major leagues but he is a solid contributor to the current Twins team as a RF. He should be considered a success story. (Other names: HS RHP Jon Garland at #10) 
• 1998: San Diego Padres selected HS 3B Sean Burroughs - Burroughs was as well-known from his starring role in a Little League World Championship as he was for his former AL MVP father (Jeff Burroughs in 1974). He made it to AAA with the Padres by the time he was 20. He spent two full and two half-seasons with the Padres though he never had the power teams looked for out of a corner infielder. 2007 saw Burroughs in Triple-A for the Mariners where he was released in mid June. (Other names: college 1B Carlos Peña at #10, college SS Adam Everett at #12, and college RHP Jeff Weaver at #14)
• 1999: Oakland Athletics selected college LHP Barry Zito - Thus far, the most successful pitcher on this list. Zito was the 2002 Cy Young winner for the A’s. He was part of the big three in Oakland (along with RHP Tim Hudson and LHP Mark Mulder). Signed a huge free agent contract with the San Francisco Giants before the 2007 season and has not lived up to that contract so far. (Other names: college RHPs Ben Sheets at #10 and Brett Myers at #12)
• 2000: San Diego Padres selected HS LHP Mark Phillips - Highest level was Advanced A-ball in 2001 through 2003. The Yankees released him in 2003 due to an inability to fix his bad mechanics. He pitched in the independent league in 2007 with the Newark Bears. (Other names: college OF Joe Borchard at #12)
• 2001: Kansas City Royals selected HS RHP Colt Griffin - Another high school pitcher who was plagued by control issues. The reports in 2001 had him touching 100mph+ in high school. His max level was 2005 in Double-A for the Royals. He retired in 2005rather than rehab a shoulder injury. (Other names: college IF Chris Burke at #10 & JuCo IF Casey Kotchman at #13)
• 2002: Colorado Rockies selected college LHP Jeff Francis- Francis has a chance to challenge Zito as the best # pick of the last decade. The 27-year old lefty has won 34 games over first three full major league seasons. (Other names: HS OF Jeremy Hermida at #11, college LHP Joe Saunders at #12, & college SS Khalil Greene at #13)
• 2003: Texas Rangers selected HS LHP John Danks- On the third try, a high school pitcher finally makes the majors. Danks made his major league debut at 22 years of age with the Chicago White Sox where he was 6-13 with a 5.50ERA and 1.54WHIP. He is a member of the White Sox rotation in 2008. (Other names: HS OF Lastings Milledge at #12 & college SS Aaron Hill at #13)
• 2004: Colorado Rockies selected HS SS Chris Nelson- After struggling in the early part of his career, he finally had a breakout season in the hitter-friendly California League in 2007. He started the 2008 season in Double-A Tulsa for the Rockies. His future at SS for Colorado is in doubt given the presence of Troy Tulowitzski. Ranked by Baseball America as the Rockies #5 prospect entering the 2008 season. (Other names: college RHP Jered Weaver at #12, college LHP Bill Bray at #13, HS 3B Billy Butler at #14, & college SS Stephen Drew at #15)
• 2005: New York Mets selected college RHP Mike Pelfrey- Pelfrey has not been the rousing succes that the Mets would have hoped. He made his major league debut with four games in 2006. 2007 saw him bounce back and forth between Triple-A and the Mets. He is a member of the Mets 2008 starting rotation. (Other names: HS OF Cameron Maybin at #10)
• 2006: Baltimore Orioles selected HS 3B Billy Rowell- Rowell was tabbed the #5 overall prospect in the Orioles organization. His bat projects well though sticking at 3B is not a lock. He spent his 2007 is Sally League Delmarva and started 2008 in Carolina League Frederick. (Other names: college RHP Tim Lincecum at #10 and college RHP Max Scherzer at #11)
• 2007: Arizona Diamondbacks selected HS RHP Jarrod Parker- It’s clearly too early to make an assessment here though Baseball America is really high on Parker, ranking him #2 in the Diamondbacks organization in 2008 (and he became #1 when Arizona dealt #1 Carlos Gonzalez). (Other names: the next three names were all high schoolers [LHP Madison Bumgarner, RHP Phillippe Aumont, & 3B Matt Dominguez])

Over the last two decades, there have several hits (Wilson, Zito, Jenkins, Francis and Kotsay) and several misses (Griffin, Walden, Phillips, & Brunson). If you break it out by college versus high school, things get a little bit clearer:

To be fair, it is likely too early to count the results of the two high schoolers drafted in 2006 and 2007 (and perhaps that can even be extended to Nelson from 2004 who is still only 22 years old). By stripping those three out, the table looks like this

It is really not that surprising that teams got better results from the college selections than their counterparts from high school. If you run through the “Other Names” I mentioned, you’ll see the pattern continue with an additional 32 collegians (18 bats and 14 arms) versus 22 high schoolers (13 bats and 9 arms … not counting the 2007 class). While teams certainly had their successes with high schoolers in this range (Manny Ramirez first among those), the history of the draft shows better results in focusing the pick in the college ranks.

Over the next six weeks or so, I am going to begin looking at the names the Nationals might see on the board with their #9 selection (as well as the guys likely to be long gone by the time they select).

Will it be a high schooler or a collegian?