Nationals Farm Authority

• Future Focus - Catchers
• Future Focus - First Basemen
• Future Focus - Second Baseman

As a reminder, the Nats picks are as follows:

• 1st round: #9
• 2nd round: #55
• 3rd round: #87
• 4th round & out: #121 +30 (i.e. 151, 181, etc)

The first nine picks are

1. Tampa Bay
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Baltimore
5. San Francisco
6. Florida
7. Cincinnati
8. Chicago White Sox
9. Washington

The number of total picks in each round is as follows:

• 1st round: 1-30
• Supplemental 1st: 31-46
• 2nd round: 47-78 (two extra picks due to unsigned 2007 2nd rounders)
• 3rd round: 79-108
• Supplemental 3rd: 109-112
• 4th round: 113-142
• 5th round and on: +30 to each end

It’s true that the Nationals are not in need of a thridbaseman at the major league level. With Ryan Zimmerman manning the hot corner, the Nats are in the enviable position of having a position covered more than competently for the next three plus seasons at a minimum. However, there is always room for more depth in the farm system and there are a handful of college third baseman that would be attractive to the Nats if they are available. One as a potential first rounder and three or four others who could be good value selections with their second rounder. I’m again going to lean on MiLB.com along with PGCrosschecker, and Baseball America for some background on the potential 2008 draft picks.

1. Pedro Alvarez - Entering the 2008, season, the 21-year old Alvarez was the consensus top prospect in the draft. A broken hamate bone short-circuited the start of his season at Vanderbilt but the talent remains. In the 25 games since he returned, he is hitting 311/416/538 with 18 homers and 57RBI. He has the talent to remain at 3B moving forward but some scouts believe he may slide over to 1B or to a corner outfield spot. His bat plays well at any of those positions. There have been rumblings that the Alvarez might slide some in the draft and if by some miracle he were to be there at #9, I’d hope the Nationals would grab him. But the odds he lasts past the top 3 or 4 picks seems remote at best.
2. Ethan Martin -Better known as a right-handed pitching prospect, the 18-year old Martin was initially considered a two-way player. Per MiLB.com, he can throw “three above-average pitches for strikes” As a third baseman, he is a raw prospect who projects well. Martin is committed to Clemson, but is likely to sign if drafted in the first round. He is an overdraft at #9 and won’t make it out of the first round. I’d imagine he goes in the 15-20 range.
3. Lonnie Chisenhall - The 19-year old Chisenhall was considered a top talent in 2006 out of high school. PGCC had the following scouting report on him back then “++ LH bat with a ++ approach to hitting; ++ in BP early in year and gradually took power/hitting ability into games; uses the whole field . . . some scouts believe he is one of the best bats in the country—ranking ahead of even Chris Marrero and Travis Snider . . . getting just a bat only for some; he’s heavy legged, doesn’t run that well and is not overly athletic . . . a SS in HS, he’ll be a 3B at next level . . . on mound, FB is 88-91/92 with + movement, CU at 74-75 . . . a gamer and hard-nosed kid.” Drafted by the Pirates in the 12th round (due to signability concerns), Chisenhall ran into legal problems in college that led to his (and Nick Fuller, another top prospect) from the South Carolina team. They were arrested on grand larceny and burglary charges in connection with the theft of some computers. The lefthanded Chisenhall is playing for Pitt (NC) Community College where he is currently hitting 401/511/769 mainly playing 3B (he also pitches). There are makeup questions, for certain, but the talent is there. I’d imagine he’ll go some time in the supplemental first round but would be worth strong consideration at #55 on talent alone.
4. James Darnell - PGCC has the following scouting report, “Darnell is a complete package, but power is understandably his best tool. He attacks balls when he gets a pitch he can drive, and his balls leave the park quickly. Darnell also has above-average arm strength and adapted well to playing third base in 2007, both in college and summer ball, after spending the previous year in the outfield.” Darnell is currently hitting 309/373/583 with 15 homers and 65 RBI over 48 games for the Gamecocks. He might not be able to remain at 3B going forward and might ahve to move to a corner outfield spot. This is getting repetitive but he is without question a value pick at #55.
5. Conor Gillaspie - The 20-year old Gillaspie is currently batting 398/488/661 for the Wichita State Shockers. While he throws right-handed, Gillaspie has added value as a lefthanded hitter. PGCC scouting report …”He consistently hit the ball hard to all fields and showed much more power with wood than he did during the spring (.325-6-53). Gillaspie is a steady defender at third base but only an average athlete.” In there most recent draft rankings, Baseball America has Gillaspie ranked #23 overall. He appears to be a guy who could go anywhere from the mid-first round to mid-second round. My gut says he comes off the board in the supplemental first round. Likely a MLB team who traditionally focuses on college players. If available at #55, a value pick.
6. Zach Cox -Another two-way high schooler the 18-year old Cox has committed to the University of Arkansas. PG scouting report reads “Strong, mature frame. Top 2-way prospect. Heavy FB to 93, hard sweeping SL, fast arm, high energy delivery. Power hitting 3B, short swing, has bat speed/juice in bat, squares up very well. Quick actioned athlete, can play D at high level. Could excel either way” I’d imagine he’ll be around at #55 and is likely ranked right around that level overall.
7. Logan Fosythe - The 21-year old righthander is currently hitting 311/431/483 for the Razorbacks. PGCC scouting report … “Forsythe may be the most well-rounded player in college baseball, based on what he brings to the field in hitting, power, plate discipline, defense, base running and leadership.” He looks like a late second round option. #55 is likely too early but he’d be an intriguing option at #87 in the 3rd round.
8. Jermaine Curtis - The 20-year old Curtis is hitting 316/442/456 for UCLA. PGCC scouting report … “Curtis won’t blow you away with his raw tools, but he plays hard, has excellent makeup and finds a way to get the most out of his ability. He has a good line-drive swing … He should add power as he continues to get stronger. He’s an above-average defender at third base with good hands and excels at coming in on balls, though his arm strength—his weakest tool—is considered just marginal.” It appears a move to 2B might be in his future. He looks like a 3rd rounder. At #121 he might be available.
9. Ricky Oropesa -One more high schooler. One more two-way player. Though with the 18-year old Oropesa, his future appears to be on offense. Scouts rank him as one of the top high school pwer bats in the draft. His father was a member of the Cuban national track & field, baseball and basket ball teams in 1948. He’s committed to USC (SoCal) and there could be concerns about his signability. His talent makes him a second round option but the concerns about signability might lead to a slide into the 4th round or later. This is a potential 5th or 6th round gamble if a team believes they can encourage him to forego college with a large bonus.
10. Alex Buchholz - Blue Hen pride! I’m including him just because he plays for my alma mater (Universtiy of Delaware). He is currently hitting 331/407/523 in 38 games for the Hens. PGCC scouting … “He shows power to all fields and has a very strong throwing arm that has landed him at third base this season after spending his first two years at Delaware at second.” He is likely a fifth round selection or later.

• Future Focus - Catchers
• Future Focus - First Basemen

As a reminder, the Nats picks are as follows:

• 1st round: #9
• 2nd round: #56
• 3rd round: #87
• 4th round & out: #121 +30 (i.e. 151, 181, etc)

The first nine picks are

1. Tampa Bay
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Baltimore
5. San Francisco
6. Florida
7. Cincinnati
8. Chicago White Sox
9. Washington

The number of total picks in each round is as follows:

• 1st round: 1-30
• Supplemental 1st: 31-46
• 2nd round: 47-78 (two extra picks due to unsigned 2007 2nd rounders)
• 3rd round: 79-108
• Supplemental 3rd: 109-112
• 4th round: 113-142
• 5th round and on: +30 to each end

Major league teams most time do not draft 2B early. The most typical path for many 2B is relocating 3B or SS to that side of the bag (that’s not to say it doesn’t happen … see Utley, Chase). This year’s class is really shallow.  With an assist from PGCrosschecker (PGCC), here are the top two second base prospects available in the upcoming MLB First Year Player Draft and one other name worth watching:

1. Jemile Weeks - The 21-year old brother of Milwaukee Brewer Rickie Weeks, Jemile is likely not as promising a prospect as his brother. He is currently batting 389/459/698 for the University of Miami. His defense at 2B is still open to question and his future might be in center field. He could sneak into the back half of the first round but seems likely to come off the board in the supplemental first round, at the latest. Meaning he won’t be available for the Nationals.
2. David Adams - The 20-year old right-hander is the starting 2B for the University of Virginia where he currently hitting 303/393/455 with 6 homers and 10/12 stolen bases. PGCC has the following comment “He centers pitches consistently and the ball jumps off his bat. Scouts believe it’s just a matter of time before his power develops. He primarily needs to add lift to his swing—and could become another Jeff Kent-type of player once he does … He’s more than adequate in the field and mainly needs to improve his throwing mechanics” Like Weeks, Adams is a supplemental first round selection and also not an option for the Nationals.
3. Blake Stouffer - The senior turned down the Cincinnati Reds who drafted him in the fourth round of the 2007 draft. As the starter for Texas A&M, Stouffer is currently hitting 264/393/374 with 13/16 stolen bases. It’s a disappointing season for him and has likely impacted his draft status. While the skills might not be off the charts, scouts see him as a “ball player” meaning he’ll give it everything he has every time out there. The Nationals did not shy away from college seniors last year (Adrian Alaniz, Bill Rhinehart, Aaron Seuss, Jake Rogers, Jeff Mandel, Dan Lyons, Travis Reagan, Jeff McCollum, and Boomer Whiting were all college seniors drafted in 2007). If Stouffer is still on the board in the sixth round or later, he might be worth a gamble.

The Washington Nationals have made tremendous strides in rebuilding their farm system from the damage caused during MLB’s stewardship.

The 2005 draft saw the addition of 3B Ryan Zimmerman and LHSP John Lannan, both of whom are contributors for the Nationals 2008 season. Additionally, OF Justin Maxwell had a cup of coffee with the Nats at the end of the 2007 season.

The 2006 season saw the Nationals focus on high ceiling high school prospects which has infused the lower levels of the minor leagues with 1B Chris Marrero, RHSP Colton Willems, LHSP Glenn Gibson (who was subsequently dealt for OF Elijah Dukes who is the Nats #4 OF when he returns from the DL), IF Stephen King, and OF Stephen Englund.

Last year saw the Nats focus on pitching with arguably the strongest draft in MLB which netted them LHSPs Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker, & Jack McGeary along with RHSP Jordan Zimmermann. Additionally, the Nats grabbed a trio of high school bats with 3B Steve Souza, 2B Jake Smolinski, and RF Michael Burgess.

These strong drafts helped add depth to the Nationals at the corner infield/outfield and starting pitching. A team can never have too much depth in its organization as it develops personnel who can replace injured players at the major league level or be dealt to fill in weak spots. The areas where the Nats need the most depth are catching and middle infield. Let me be clear, the Nats should take the best player available when their selections come up in the 2008 draft. But if the debate is close and the players rate out comparably to the organization, the positional depth is a consideration the Nationals should not ignore.

Over the next couple of months, I am going to highlight, position by position, players the Nat might consider with their allotment of draft picks. As a reminder, the Nats picks are as follows:

• 1st round: #9
• 2nd round: #56
• 3rd round: #87
• 4th round & out: #121 +30 (i.e. 151, 181, etc)

The number of total picks in each round is as follows:

• 1st round: 1-30
• Supplemental 1st: 31-46
• 2nd round: 47-78 (two extra picks due to unsigned 2007 2nd rounders)
• 3rd round: 79-108
• Supplemental 3rd: 109-112
• 4th round: 113-142
• 5th round and on: +30 to each end

That being said, with the assist from PGCrosschecker, here are some of the top catching prospects available in the upcoming MLB First Year Player Draft:

1. Kyle Skipworth - Skipworth is an 18-year old left-handed hitting high schooler from California. He is the top catching prospect in this year’s draft. Not only does he possess above average defense but Skipworth also has the chance to develop into that very rare commodity, a catcher who can hit for both power and average. Skipworth has committed to Arizona State but given his proposed draft status seems very likely to sign. The standard caveats exist for any high schooler, a lot of things can change as they mature but he is a likely top 10 selection and very well may be available for the Nats with the #9 pick. 
2. Buster Posey - Skipworth is top high school catcher in the draft. Posey is his counterpart from the college ranks. The 21-year old right-handed hitting catcher is currently hitting 483/586/864 with the Florida State Seminoles. He is clearly farther along developmentally and is a likely top 15 selection. This is where a team gambles on the high schooler with more volatility (higher ceiling but more risk of not developing) versus a collegian with less future improvement, but more certainty in what he is going to be. It really is a matter of organizational philosophy because I think they value out that close.
3. Petey Paramore - The 21-year old switch-hitting catcher is currently hitting 328/482/464 for the Arizona State Sun Devils. Paramore’s calling card is his defense. He is one of the top defensive catchers in this years draft. On offense, he does not appear to project out for much power but has an above average eye at the plate. Paramore projects out as a second rounder and could very well be available when the Nats pick at #56.
4. Adrian Nieto - Another switch-hitter, scouts view the 18-year old Nieto as the second best prep catcher in the 2008 draft. As the scouting report mentions, his arm and power are considered above average. He is a work in progress along the lines of 2007 selection Derek Norris. He’s committed to the University of South Florida and seems a likely late second round selection. With the 2nd rounder (#56), it would likely be too early and he might not be there for the Nats in the 3rd round at #87
5. Tyler Chatwood -The 17-year old Chatwood is an intriguing prospect. He could be drafted as a RHP (most likely), OF, or CA (least likely). He currently throws in the mid-90s and controls a couple of pitches. That arm could also project out well as a corner outfielder or catcher. He’s committed to UCLA, so that might bear watching in contract negotiations. He’s a guy who could go anywhere from the supplemental first round to the late second round depending upon what he is drafted as (might go higher as a pitcher). As a catcher, he is more of a late 2nd rounder like Nieto.
6. Antonio Jimenez (no link) - A 17-year old right-handed hitter. Not much I can find on him. This is a recommendation from PG Crosschecker. From what I can dig up (thank you Google), he has a nice balance of defense and offense. They have him in the 70-75 range which would make him a value pick in the 3rd round.
7. Jason Castro -The 20-year old left-handed hitting catcher is currently batting 347/398/590 for Stanford. Scouting reports show his defense as a work in progress. His power right now is average but projects out well. He looks like a catcher who might be available with the #87 pick as a slight overdraft, but would be a great value in any round thereafter.
8. Preston Clark -The 22-year old right-handed hitting Clark is currently batting 261-396/514 for the Texas Longhorns. Clark’s calling card is his defense. He is the top defensive catcher entering the 2008 draft. His bat is still a work in progress. Clark looks like a late third rounder.
9. Tim Federowicz - The 20-year old right-handed hitting Federowicz is currently batting 300/380/431 for the University of North Carolina.  He’s a solid both on offense and defense. Teams could also draft him as a potential RHRP. He seems to slot into the late 3rd round/supplemental 3rd round.
10. Jordan Swagerty - The last one on this list is the switch-hitting high schooler from Texas. Like Federowicz, he profiles as both a RHP and a catcher. He is all about projectability at this point. Also like Federowicz, he’s also a late 3rd round/supplemental 3rd round.

I’m going to start looking at what the 2008 draft holds for the Nationals who pick at #9 in the first round, #56 in the second round, #87 in the third round, and #121 (+30) in the rounds four and out. Given that the Nationals realistically have one “high” pick, here are the #9 selections over the last 20 seasons (players in bold made the majors) to try and figure out what to expect there.

• 1988: Chicago Cubs drafted college 2B Ty Griffin- Griffin never made it past Double-A ball and was out of the minor leagues after the 1995 season. (Other names drafted close after [10-15 range]: college 3B Robin Ventura at #10, college LHP Pat Combs at #11, college 1B Tino Martinez at #14, & college SS Royce Clayton at #15)
• 1989: California Angels drafted college LHP Kyle Abbott- Abbott had a cup of coffee in the majors with the Angels & Phillies in 1991-92 but was out of the league by 1996. (Other names: HS CA Charles Johnson at #10 [unsigned], HS OF Calvin Murray at #11 [unsigned], HS RHP Jeff Juden at #12, and college CA Brent Mayne at #13)
• 1990: Los Angeles Dodgers selected HS LHP Ron Walden- All I could find were three appearances in the Florida State League in 1993. So suffice it to say, not a great return on investment. (Other names: HS OF Carl Everett at #10, HS IF Shane Andrews at #11, HS RHPs Todd Ritchie [#12] and Todd Van Poppel [#14], and college LHP Donovan Osborne)
• 1991: Baltimore Orioles drafted college OF Mark Smith- Smith was a journeyman IF/OF who played portions of eight seasons in the major leagues, primarily as a bench guy. (Other names: college RHP Tyler Greene at #10, HS LHP Shawn Estes at #11, college OF Doug Glanville at #12, HS OF Manny Ramirez at #13, and HS 1B Cliff Floyd at #14)
• 1992: New York Mets selected HS SS [yes SS] Preston Wilson- The first really successful pick from this list. Wilson moved to the OF in the minors and has had a very solid 10 year major league career, capped a 2nd place finish in the 1999 Rookie of the Year voting and an All-Star appearance in 2003. (Other names: college SS Michael Tucker at #10 and college LHP Ron Villone at #14)
• 1993: Detroit Tigers selected HS SS Matt Brunson- Brunson maxed out in the Florida State League in 1996. (Other names: college OF/P Brooks Kieschnick at #12, college LHP Billy Wagner at #12, HS 1B Derrek Lee at #14, & HS RHP Chris Carpenter at #15)
• 1994: Cincinnati Reds selected college LHP C.J. Nitkowski- Nitkowski had a successful major league career as a journeyman LHP. His final major league appearance was with the Nationals in 2005. (Other names: HS RHP Jaret Wright at #10, college SS Nomar Garciaparra at #12, HS CA Paul Konerko at #13, and college CA Jason Varitek at #14)
• 1995: Milwaukee Brewers selected college OF Geoff Jenkins-Another selection, like Wilson that has had a solid major league career. Jenkins is in 11th season in the major leagues with the Phillies in 2008. (Other names: HS SS Chad Hermansen, college RHP Matt Morris, college LHP Mark Redman, and HS OF Reggie Taylor)
• 1996: Florida Marlins selected college OF Mark Kotsay- Again, a solid major league career for another college draft pick. Kotsay has played for twelve seasons (including 2008). He is currently the starting CF for the Atlanta Braves. (Other names: HS 3B Eric Chavez at #10, HS RHP Adam Eaton at #11, and HS LHP Bobby Seay at #12)
• 1997: Minnesota Twins selected HS SS Michael Cuddyer- It took Cuddyer some time to stick in the major leagues but he is a solid contributor to the current Twins team as a RF. He should be considered a success story. (Other names: HS RHP Jon Garland at #10) 
• 1998: San Diego Padres selected HS 3B Sean Burroughs - Burroughs was as well-known from his starring role in a Little League World Championship as he was for his former AL MVP father (Jeff Burroughs in 1974). He made it to AAA with the Padres by the time he was 20. He spent two full and two half-seasons with the Padres though he never had the power teams looked for out of a corner infielder. 2007 saw Burroughs in Triple-A for the Mariners where he was released in mid June. (Other names: college 1B Carlos Peña at #10, college SS Adam Everett at #12, and college RHP Jeff Weaver at #14)
• 1999: Oakland Athletics selected college LHP Barry Zito - Thus far, the most successful pitcher on this list. Zito was the 2002 Cy Young winner for the A’s. He was part of the big three in Oakland (along with RHP Tim Hudson and LHP Mark Mulder). Signed a huge free agent contract with the San Francisco Giants before the 2007 season and has not lived up to that contract so far. (Other names: college RHPs Ben Sheets at #10 and Brett Myers at #12)
• 2000: San Diego Padres selected HS LHP Mark Phillips - Highest level was Advanced A-ball in 2001 through 2003. The Yankees released him in 2003 due to an inability to fix his bad mechanics. He pitched in the independent league in 2007 with the Newark Bears. (Other names: college OF Joe Borchard at #12)
• 2001: Kansas City Royals selected HS RHP Colt Griffin - Another high school pitcher who was plagued by control issues. The reports in 2001 had him touching 100mph+ in high school. His max level was 2005 in Double-A for the Royals. He retired in 2005rather than rehab a shoulder injury. (Other names: college IF Chris Burke at #10 & JuCo IF Casey Kotchman at #13)
• 2002: Colorado Rockies selected college LHP Jeff Francis- Francis has a chance to challenge Zito as the best # pick of the last decade. The 27-year old lefty has won 34 games over first three full major league seasons. (Other names: HS OF Jeremy Hermida at #11, college LHP Joe Saunders at #12, & college SS Khalil Greene at #13)
• 2003: Texas Rangers selected HS LHP John Danks- On the third try, a high school pitcher finally makes the majors. Danks made his major league debut at 22 years of age with the Chicago White Sox where he was 6-13 with a 5.50ERA and 1.54WHIP. He is a member of the White Sox rotation in 2008. (Other names: HS OF Lastings Milledge at #12 & college SS Aaron Hill at #13)
• 2004: Colorado Rockies selected HS SS Chris Nelson- After struggling in the early part of his career, he finally had a breakout season in the hitter-friendly California League in 2007. He started the 2008 season in Double-A Tulsa for the Rockies. His future at SS for Colorado is in doubt given the presence of Troy Tulowitzski. Ranked by Baseball America as the Rockies #5 prospect entering the 2008 season. (Other names: college RHP Jered Weaver at #12, college LHP Bill Bray at #13, HS 3B Billy Butler at #14, & college SS Stephen Drew at #15)
• 2005: New York Mets selected college RHP Mike Pelfrey- Pelfrey has not been the rousing succes that the Mets would have hoped. He made his major league debut with four games in 2006. 2007 saw him bounce back and forth between Triple-A and the Mets. He is a member of the Mets 2008 starting rotation. (Other names: HS OF Cameron Maybin at #10)
• 2006: Baltimore Orioles selected HS 3B Billy Rowell- Rowell was tabbed the #5 overall prospect in the Orioles organization. His bat projects well though sticking at 3B is not a lock. He spent his 2007 is Sally League Delmarva and started 2008 in Carolina League Frederick. (Other names: college RHP Tim Lincecum at #10 and college RHP Max Scherzer at #11)
• 2007: Arizona Diamondbacks selected HS RHP Jarrod Parker- It’s clearly too early to make an assessment here though Baseball America is really high on Parker, ranking him #2 in the Diamondbacks organization in 2008 (and he became #1 when Arizona dealt #1 Carlos Gonzalez). (Other names: the next three names were all high schoolers [LHP Madison Bumgarner, RHP Phillippe Aumont, & 3B Matt Dominguez])

Over the last two decades, there have several hits (Wilson, Zito, Jenkins, Francis and Kotsay) and several misses (Griffin, Walden, Phillips, & Brunson). If you break it out by college versus high school, things get a little bit clearer:

To be fair, it is likely too early to count the results of the two high schoolers drafted in 2006 and 2007 (and perhaps that can even be extended to Nelson from 2004 who is still only 22 years old). By stripping those three out, the table looks like this

It is really not that surprising that teams got better results from the college selections than their counterparts from high school. If you run through the “Other Names” I mentioned, you’ll see the pattern continue with an additional 32 collegians (18 bats and 14 arms) versus 22 high schoolers (13 bats and 9 arms … not counting the 2007 class). While teams certainly had their successes with high schoolers in this range (Manny Ramirez first among those), the history of the draft shows better results in focusing the pick in the college ranks.

Over the next six weeks or so, I am going to begin looking at the names the Nationals might see on the board with their #9 selection (as well as the guys likely to be long gone by the time they select).

Will it be a high schooler or a collegian?

Aaron Fitt of Baseball America has completed the organizational rankings for the Washington Nationals for the last four seasons (2005-2006-2007-2008). Over that time he has seen the Nationals grow from shoestring to among the tops in the major leagues (#9 overall in 2008). Aaron was kind enough to take the time to answer a few questions for me about where the Nationals have come from and where he sees them going.

Nationals Farm Authority (NFA): Baseball America moved the Nationals from the 30th best system in 2007 to the 9th best in 2008. In your opinion, what was the primary reason driving this rapid ascension? How much fluidity is there to this ranking (i.e. do you see stability to the ranking or will it be more mercurial)?

Aaron Fitt (AF): Simply put, the Washington’s system has gotten a major infusion of talent over the last year. Much of that is because of the 2007 draft, which we rated as the best in baseball. The Nationals had five picks in the first two rounds and made the most of them, grabbing players with upside but who could also move quickly. They really did a great job landing the best player available with each pick, getting Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker, Michael Burgess, Jordan Zimmermann and Jake Smolinski. And they were aggressive in the later rounds, forking over big bucks for Jack McGeary in the sixth round; nobody thought he’d be signable outside the first round, but the Nats got creative with his contract and found a way to get him done. That draft was the single greatest reason for the leap, adding some much-needed high-impact talent, but trades over the previous year and a half also added good depth. If anything, I think the Nationals are likely to rank higher next year, as some of their players in the low minors get closer to the big leagues and establish themselves as premium prospects, rather than simply promising prospects.I expect Zimmermann, in particular, to make that leap next year.

NFA: In your opinion, who is leading the efforts to rebuild the farm system? Jim Bowden? Mike Rizzo? Dana Brown? Bob Boone?

AF: It really is a true team effort. It starts at the top, where the Lerners, Stan Kasten and Bowden have made a legitimate commitment to building a solid foundation through player development, rather than sacrifice the long-term vision for some short-term gratification as the team moves into its new stadium. That commitment is not typical, and it’s absolutely vital. Give Bowden credit for parlaying veterans like Livan Hernandez, Mike Stanton and Marlon Anderson into solid prospects like Garrett Mock, Jhonny Nunez and Shairon Martis, and give him credit for letting people like Rizzo and Brown do their jobs. Brown deserves most of the credit for the exceptional 2007 draft, though Rizzo was heavily involved as well. All of those people work together very well.

NFA: What are the organization’s strengths? Where do they need to improve?

AF: Before they traded Glenn Gibson, I don’t think any organization had a better reservoir of quality lefthanded pitching than the Nationals. Even without Gibson, the Detwiler-Smoker-McGeary-John Lannan group is pretty special, and Cory Van Allen is intriguing as well. That is the strength of the organization, in my mind. There are plenty of promising righthanded power arms as well, like Collin Balester, Zimmermann, Colton Willems, Mock, Brad Peacock, Nunez, Hassan Pena, Adam Carr, Martin Beno and Zech Zinicola. That’s very good depth as well. There are a few potential high-impact bats in the system, like Chris Marrero (who I think is a very safe bet to be a .280-30-100 type player in the big leagues, and could very well be better than that), Burgess, Justin Maxwell and Smolinski, but most of the the other position-player prospects carry more risk. Guys like Stephen Englund, Stephen King, Ian Desmond and Derek Norris have plenty of talent, but they all have major flaws as well. I think the Nationals are very thin on good infield prospects.

NFA: The Nationals have openly discussed starting the season with Ross Detwiler in the major league bullpen, in a fashion similar to what teams did in the past, working a high profile SP into the rotation slowly. Where do you come down on this idea? Good or bad? [Note: In the time between conducting the interview and getting it posted, the Nationals assigned Detwiler to Potomac]

AF: Brandon Morrow of the Mariners seems to be a very good model for this, but I would rather see him work as a starter in the minors. He’s such a promising arm, it would be a shame to destroy his confidence in the big leagues (think Craig Hansen of the Red Sox) before he’s ready. He’s got some things to work on, so let him work on them in Double-A, and bring him up when he’s ready.

NFA: What reason do you believe led to the sliding of Burgess in the 2007 draft? After signing, Burgess showed the ability to hit at the levels he played. What are his strengths? What areas does Burgess need to work on?

AF: He had a very poor senior year of high school, kind of like Chris Marrero’s slide the year before that allowed the Nationals to get him in the middle of the first round. Burgess had too many people whispering in his ear, and he benefited by just listening to his professional instructors after he was drafted. He’s got so much power crammed into that compact frame, he’s got a chance to be a big-time home run hitter in the majors. He does need to work on getting his swing a little more under control, and he’s got to watch his weight — I’ve spoken to at least one organization official who thinks Burgess will end up at first base for sure. That would suppress his value considerably.

NFA: What are your feelings on the deal McGeary signed? Is it something you can see the Nationals (or other teams) doing in the future?

AF: I’ll certainly give the Nationals points for creativity. The time at Stanford could slow his development early in his pro career, but I think the trade-off will be worth it, because he’s got a chance to be an Andy Pettitte type in the majors down the road. He’s just so polished for a high school product, and guys with his makeup seem to succeed at a higher rate than other players.

NFA: Where are the strengths in the 2008 draft? If you were in charge of the Nationals and knowing you should always go with the best available player, what type of player would you select at #9, a high school or college player who grade on equally? Any names we should watch for?

AF: The college class is rich with corner infield bats (Justin Smoak, Pedro Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, Allan Dykstra, Conor Gillaspie, Brett Wallace, James Darnell) and quality (if flawed) arms (once you get past the top guys–Brian Matusz, Aaron Crow, Shooter Hunt– you’ve got Brett Hunter, Ryan Perry, Tanner Scheppers, Luke Burnett, Cody Satterwhite, Lance Lynn, Christian Friedrich, Tyson Ross, Jacob Thompson). The college outfielders and middle infielders are weak. Pitching seems to be the strength of the high school class, though I think the Nationals could be looking at a catcher at No. 9. There are two in the prep ranks who would seem a decent fit there–Kyle Skipworth and Adrian Nieto–and one in the college ranks who could be perfect–Florida State’s Buster Posey. Catching is one area where the Nationals are thin, and those are good options for that part of the draft. But the Nationals have proven adept at taking the best player available, whether college or prep, and I’m confident they’ll do the same thing this year.

NFA: Is there a break even point with going over slot in signing draft picks? In other words, should teams break the bank at every chance or should they target a handful of overslot guys and fill in the other areas with more signable players?

AF: Every team has a different approach to this, so there’s not any single right answer. Personally, I think investing in the draft is always a good idea, but some teams are reluctant to cross the commissioner’s office. I don’t think Washington will be one of those teams.

NFA: Marrero has thus far delivered on his potential but has moved from 3B to LF to 1B. What sort of offense will need need to provide to be an above average contributor as a 1B? How does he appear defensively?

AF: He’ll need to be a 30-homer guy, and I think he will be. That bat is legit — and it’s not just a power bat. His mature approach is what really sets him apart for his age. He’s making progress defensively and should be more than adequate at first.

NFA: What sort of future do you see for some of the other 2006 high schoolers? King? Englund? Willems?

AF: They’re all high-risk, high-reward types, and I like Willems the most of that group and think his fastball command is encouraging, though I worry about his command of his secondary pitches. Englund has a higher ceiling than King, but I think King is much more likely to reach his ceiling, which is an offensive second baseman.

NFA: How are the Nationals doing internationally? After the attention the Nationals focused on the signing of Smiley Gonzalez, they have not publicly highlighted their efforts internationally. Is there progress there? What should a fan of the Nationals look for to demonstrate improvement in the international area?

AF: They continue to sign quality players in the Dominican, if not the blue-chippers, but there is a lot of risk associated with giving a $2 million bonus to a 16-year-old, and I don’t think it’s a great investment. They’re making progress in Venezuela, having signed four decent prospects there last year, and are looking to make inroads in the Pacific Rim with an 18-day trip out there leading up to the Olympics in China.

NFA: After years of high expectations unrealized, it appears that Desmond has begun to deliver to some degree. Where do you see his ceiling now?

AF: I think he can be a fringe-average major league shortstop. I don’t see him being a star. But there’s nothing wrong with fringe-average.

NFA: Please provide me a breakout pitcher and hitter for the Nationals in 2008. Who do you think could be this year’s Lannan and quickly climb the organizational ladder?

AF: Breakout pitcher: Hassan Pena. Breakout hitter: Edgardo Baez (in a Frank Diaz 2006 kind of way). This year’s Lannan: Jeff Mandel.

NFA: With the Braves moving out of Richmond, what are the chances the Nationals can get a foothold there? A Triple-A franchise seems unlikely but is there an opportunity for the Nationals to get a Double-A or A-ball affiliate there?

AF: It seems a perfect fit given the proximity to Washington, obviously, and I think it’s extremely likely Richmond will try to land another minor league affiliate in the near future.

I want to thank Aaron for taking the time to answer my questions.

Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus has part 2 of his rankings of the MLB minor league organizations. He places the Nationals at #14, up from dead last in 2007.

Why They’re Up: Chris Marrero is one of the better young sluggers around; the only thing better than having a ton of draft picks is knowing what to do with them, as the Nats used the 2007 draft to load up the system with a potential front-line starter in Ross Detwiler and another outstanding young masher in Michael Burgess.

Strengths: Young power hitters; many good arms at the lower levels.

Weaknesses: No position players that are close to big-league ready; short in infielders and catchers.

Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Looking good. While Detwiler could lose eligibility as early as this year, there’s still a lot of young talent here that could potentially step up and take his place in next year’s Top 100.

Baseball America had the Nationals at #9, but I tend to agree more with Goldstein here on the overall ranking. They are without question leaps and bounds better than they were one or two seasons ago, and are definitely in the top half of MLB, but I think there is still things to be proven overall. But the repairing of the farm system is not a quick fix. The Nationals should be excited with a sixteen place rise. They are on the upswing and if they continue on this path, should be a top five organization within the next couple of seasons.

Stanford OF Michael Taylor

Taylor is built more like a linebacker than an OF. Scouts see huge raw power potential but he has never consistently shown it in games. Scouts believe the tools are there, but whether they develop enough is still open to debate. At present, Taylor is a second round pick. 

Manhattan 1B Matt Rizzotti

Rizzotti is a big power threat with a solid eye at the plate. Scouts do not foresee a gold glove in his future at 1B but he is serviceable. He appears to profect out best as a corner OF or DH. He’s likely a second round or later selection.

Mississippi SS Zack Cozart

While Horton is arguably the best offensive college SS in the 2007 draft, Cozart is considered by most scouts the best defensive college SS. Scouts describe him with “quick feet, soft hands, easy actions and a strong, accurate arm.” Cozart’s glove was strong enough that he was the Team USA starter. His offense, on the other hand, is still a work in progress. Cozart’s glove could propel him into the supplemental first round, but the second round seems more likely.

North Carolina SS Josh Horton

Horton is the best offensive threat among a weak college SS class. He has gap power, a solid eye, and above average speed on the basepaths. Scouts believe his arm is strong enough to remain at SS, but he needs to prove he can transition from the aluminum to the wood bat. Horton is a likely second round selection.