Nationals Farm Authority

Baseball America is running an online contest to crown some of the better minor league logos. This time around, they are looking for the best local tie-in.

Vote Lake Monsters.

The Nationals moved CA Patrick Nichols and LHP Jason Stanford to the Vermont roster in order to open up spots for CA Jesus Flores and RHP Jason Bergmann. In essence, Nichols and Stanford are in extended spring training back down in Florida.

and here is Vermont

Ramon Aviles will manage the 2008 Lake Monsters in his 38th season in professional baseball, while Rusty Meacham returns as Vermont pitching coach for the second straight season. Jason Camilli, who played with the Vermont Expos back in 1995, returns to Centennial Field for his first season as the hitting coach for the Lake Monsters.

Aviles replaces Darnell Coles who is now the manager in Hagerstown. Aviles was last a manager in the Brewers system (2005-06). No notes on his role in 2007. Both Meacham and Camilli return to Vermont.

The release is out and the Nationals sent LHSP Glenn Gibson to the Rays in exchange for OF Elijah Dukes.

Hmmm.

Not what I was expecting. I did not envision them surrendering one of the Vermonsters for Dukes. First blush, not terrible but definitely not what I expected. Gibson was a 2006 4th round selection by the Nationals and was one of the menu of arms the Nationals put up as an example of what work being accomplished in the Nationals farm system.

Gibson is a extremely polished lefty (for someone coming out of high school) and has a major league pedigree (his father pitched in the major leagues). I like Gibson for what he is a soft-tossing lefthander in the mold of Jamie Moyer (I use that as the best case scenario). His most likely case was to develop into a serviceable lefty a la John Lannan. Someone who can serve as a #4 or 5 starting pitcher for a major league team. With the acquisitions of Josh Smoker and Jack McGeary and Ross Detwiler, Gibson became the movable lefty.

It’s a lot to surrender in a deal for a guy with the baggage Dukes has, but from a talent for talent point of view, the Nationals are the winners. Dukes has a five-tool skill set. His ceiling is a middle of the order bat with average to above average defense (once again best case scenario). His most likely career path seems likely to be a 6th hitter in the lineup with 15-20 HR and maybe a 265BA.

BUT, the big risk in this deal is the aforementioned baggage. To say Dukes has had problems on and off the field is an understatement (a colossal understatement). He has had documented discipline and attitude problems (including as recently as this past Thursday in the Dominican Winter League).

This is a tremendous gamble the Nationals are taking. They need to hope that Manny Acta and the Nationals leaders on the field (to include Dmitri Young) can help Dukes work through the issues he has.

Worst case scenario, the Nationals have traded for a bad apple who changes little with the change of address. I would imagine that it was made abundantly clear that there would be little wiggle room when it comes to the expectations of behavior. And there would not be a second chance. In that case, the Nationals gave away a potential back of the rotation starting pitcher for a headache.

In the best case, the Nationals may have identified their CF of the future. Lastings Milledge would be the starting LF. Austin Kearns in RF. Or the Nationals could be looking to package one of the four (including Wily Mo Pena) for a starting pitcher.

I understand that the initial reaction to this deal is likely going to be overwhelmingly negative. I see incredibly high risk in this move. Higher than signing Young this past off-season. Higher than the reported issues Milledge faced while with the Mets. But along with this high risk is a high reward if he can figure things out (which is truly unknown at this point).

I am going to likely be one of the only bloggers out here who says this, but I like the deal for the Nationals. Would I have preferred the Nationals deal someone else (like my suggestions of Clint Everts or Larry Broadway)? ABSOLUTELY. They were more known quantities while Gibson is still an unknown who could turn into something. But from where I see the Nationals developmentally, they have the opportunity to take on these types of risk while the farm system continues to be restock/rebuilt. They have made noted efforts on the pitching side. Keep in mind that not all of these highly-rated arms are going to develop. And with the questions remained with bats (aside from Chris Marrero), moving an arm for a higher level bat is a wise move

Elijah Dukes is a gamble. A huge gamble.

But one that could pay dividends.

Both Jim Callis (general questions) and Aaron Fitt (New York/Penn League questions) were chatting online this afternoon. here are the Nationals’ related Q&As.

Q: How would you rank order the LHPs the Nationals have in their farm system (Glenn Gibson, Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker, and Jack McGeary)?

• Jim Callis: Detwiler, Smoker, McGeary, Gibson

Q: Jim, what do you think of recent call up Justin Maxwell of the Nats? I heard people say he’s a marginal prospect because of his age/level in the minors.

• Jim Callis: Age does matter, but you have to look at the context. Maxwell has had a series of injuries that held him back, so that’s why he spent most of the year in Class A at age 23. He has a lot of tools and would have been a possible first-round pick coming out of Maryland if not for injuries. He’s legit.

Q: Aaron, Do you see Zimmermann being fast tracked and skipping over Hagerstown since he’s a bit older than Gibson and Willems or a one level at a time advancement ? Thank you

• Aaron Fitt: The Nats seldom hesitate to push their college arms (see: Zinicola, Lannan, Stammen, Spradlin, even Adam Carr) and I suspect they’ll do the same with Zimmermann. He’s got a big arm and pretty good polish, and he should definitely move faster than Willems, though I expect Gibson to hop on the fast track next year also, because he’s very mature for a high school product.

Q: Aaron, the Nationals managed to get three of their arms in the top 20 with Zimmermann, Gibson, and Willems. How would you rate the two Vermonsters in the rotation who didn’t qualify (Josh Smoker & Jack McGeary)? Where would they rank?

• Aaron Fitt: It’s hard to stack them up against other players in the league since neither pitched more than four innings, but I like both of them and anticipate both will crack the Nationals’ top 10. For me, McGeary is very similar to Gibson in stuff, polish and profile, though he might have a bit more projection, since Gibson might never sit in the 90s even when he does fill out his frame. McGeary looked like a back-of-the-first-round talent late in his high school season before fatigue really took its toll and his velocity tumbled, and I rank him slightly ahead of Smoker. Both of those guys are similar to Gibson, though, in that both are mature above their years and seem like pretty safe bets — you don’t have to dream much on those guys. I think all three could move quickly for high school guys, and all three have a good chance to be big league starters, though not necessarily front-of-the-rotation starters.

Q: Who is destined for a better MLB future with the Nats; Jordan Zimmerman or Colten Willems?

• Aaron Fitt: Willems has a huge upside, but Zimmermann is a much safer bet in my mind, and his stuff is nasty in its own right. I’ll take Zimmermann.

Q: Adrian Alaniz was a bit old for the league and came from a big college program, but he put up great numbers. What does his future look like?

• Aaron Fitt: Velocity is fringy, and he dominated less advanced hitters by pitching backwards with a four-pitch mix. He can hit his spots and pitch to contact, but his ceiling is low… No. 5 spot starter, best-case scenario, in my mind.

Baseball America debuted their New York/Penn League top 20 prospects today. 2007 second round RHP Jordan Zimmermann was #5, 2006 fourth round LHP Glenn Gibson was #9, and 2006 first round RHP Colton Willems was #11.

Quick hits on each …

• Zimmermann - Zimmermann’s heavy, sinking fastball sits at 91-93 mph range and touches 94, and its life makes it a true plus pitch. He attacks the strike zone with his fastball, his hard slider with late bite and his decent changeup. He’s also working on a 12-to-6 curveball because the Nationals don’t like their young pitchers to throw sliders. Zimmermann has strong legs and good mechanics, and he should only get better the more he pitches in warmer weather.
• Gibson - Gibson pores over hitting and pitching charts before every start so he can exploit hitters’ weaknesses. He mixes speeds and locations very well. He’s starting to fill out his lean frame and he ran his fastball up to 91 mph this summer, though he usually pitches in the high 80s with late movement.
• Willems - He came out strong this summer, regularly running his fastball up to 94-95 mph and pitching in the low 90s. His downer curveball and changeup are both promising offerings, but he’s still working on refining his command.

• Across the Affiliates 2007 - DSL (1 of 7)
• Across the Affiliates 2007 - GCL (2 of 7)

Pitching, pitching, pitching. It’s a mantra that Nationals GM Jim Bowden has repeated time and time again since joining the team in the winter of 2004. While the Nationals have managed to find a few serviceable arms from within, starting pitchers like Shawn Hill and Jason Bergmann, the organizational depth on the mound has been a weakness throughout MLB’s stewardship of the Expos. That appears to be changing and the 2007 Lake Monsters are the first indicator that the right steps are underway to rebuild the player development system. Vermont’s starting rotation featured no fewer than five arms that have a good chance of developing into future major leaguers. This stable of strong arms led Vermont to a 38-37 record, one of only three Nationals affiliates with an above 0.500 record (DSL Nationals1 and Potomac were the others).

STATISTICS

Hitting

Pitching

The Lake Monsters rode their strong pitching to thirty-eight victories. 2006 1st & 4th rounders Colton Willems & Glenn Gibson and 2007 2nd & 8th rounders Jordan Zimmermann & Adrian Alaniz spearheaded the strong staff of starters. The four combined for twenty of the team’s thirty-eight wins with a 2.03ERA, 1.11WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and 3.3 K/BB. Not to be completely outdone by the starters, 2007 draft picks Martin Beno (36th rd), Caleb Staudt (39th), and  Luke Pisker (17th) who combined for three wins and three saves over 53 total appearances (79IP) with a 3.08ERA, 1.06WHIP, a sub-0.200 Opponents BA, and 10.5K/9.

Offensively, the Monsters were below average in hitting for average and power but reached base on an average basis and when they did, led the New York/Penn League in stolen bases with 107. Boomer Whiting led the way with 37/42 stolen bases while Garrett Bass (16/20), Mark Gildea (16/23), and Dan Lyons (17/20) helped Vermont generate a nearly league average number runs despite their below average hitting.

It appeared that the Nationals utilized the 2007 draft as a means of repopulating the lower level of the minor leagues with new blood from the college ranks. In previous two seasons, the Nationals signed only 49 total players, requiring them to fill several of their roster spots in Vermont with older players. The New York/Penn League limits rostters to no more than four players who are 23 or older, and no more than three players on active list may have four or more years of prior service. In previous seasons, the Nationals were typically right around those maximums, filling in spots with older and more experienced players. This past season, the Nationals signed 39 players alone and of those only CA Sean Rooney was a regular starter from a previous draft class.

It seems the Nationals have made the effort to assemble a population of future organizational players, allowing them to scale back their reliance on the six-year free agents going forward. In 2007, both Hagerstown and Potomac featured many players who would be classified as too old for the league they were in and the direction taken in this year’s draft should allow the Nationals to stabilize their A-ball rosters with relatively younger players who are under the team’s control for four years. This is not to be taken too lightly as the Nationals are now able to develop a “Nationals way” of player development that should permit them more consistent instruction up the player development ladder.

Regular Lineup

‘*’ = lefthanded pitcher 

As explained above, the Monsters featured an everyday lineup of 2007 draft picks who were likely selected because they fit the mold of what the Nationals future of player development is going to be. From a quick scan of their individual statistics, the Nationals have seemingly focused on plate discipline/pitch identification from their hitters. After last year’s performance where the team batted a collective 233/296/311 with only 186 walks and 611 strikeouts, the 2007 team moved up to league average with a 245/332/343 while increasing their number of walks (257) and reducing their number of strkeouts (558).

Top 10 Vermont Lake Monsters Prospects

1. Colton Willems RHSP
2. Josh Smoker LHSP
3. Jack McGeary LHSP
4. Jordan Zimmermann RHSP
5. Glenn Gibson LHSP
6. Adrian Alaniz RHSP
7. Bill Rhinehart 1B
8. Mark Gildea CF
9. Garrett Bass LF/RF
10. Boomer Whiting LF/CF

Note: RF Michael Burgess, CF Stephen Englund, and 2B/SS Stephen King were not included on this list given their inclusion on the GCL roster. If these players were slotted among the top 10 list here, Burgess would be the #1 and Englund and King would slide in between Gibson and Alaniz at #6 and 7 respectively. 

Willems had an inconsistent season but remains the most projectable of the arms in Vermont. From reports, the Nationals have tinkered with Willems’ delivery in order to allow him to more easily repeat his delivery. If this is the case, it will bear watching whether he can adapt to the changes and regain the fastball velocity he had (mid-90s) while at the same time gain more command on his secondary pitches (a curve and slider). Willems is the definition of high risk/high reward. Of all of the pitchers in the Nationals organization, he is the most likely to develop into the frontline #1 starter that the Nationals need to develop. I’d expect the Nationals to pair him with Gibson in Hagerstown to begin the 2008 season with the chance of a promotion to Potomac if the results dictate.

Smoker is intriguing to me. Scouting reports say he used six pitches while he was in high school (three different fastballs, curve, slider & change). His fastball has been clocked up to 94mph, his curveball is hard on even the righthanded hitters, and he uses his splitter as a strikeout pitch. He projects as a #2-3 starting pitcher but given his tenacity he is the type of pitcher major league teams love to have as anchors in their rotations. Given his late signing and limited playing time, a return to Vermont in 2008 is likely.

McGeary was the surprise get form the 2007 draft. Like Smoker, he’s a lefthander that projects out well, likely as a middle of the rotation starting pitcher (#2 or 3). Unlike Smoker, McGeary isn’t a power pitcher, his strength is his command. He has a low-90s fastball and low-80s breaking pitch. He has drawn comparisons to both Andy Pettitte and Tom Glavine and the Nationals should be happy if he turns into half of that. McGeary signed an unusual contract that allows him to attend Stanford and take classes, meaning his 2008 debut is likely in Vermont once his semester ends (likely missing the first couple weeks of the NY/Penn League season).

Zimmermann touched the mid-90s in the 2006 summer league, vaulting the Division III righthander onto the map for the 2007 draft. He has three solid pitches already (fastball, change, and slider) with a developing curveball. It’s going to get redundant but like the previous two arms, Zimmermann projects out as a #2-3 starting pitcher. He appears likely to start 2008 in Potomac.

Gibson was the story of the early part of the season for the Monsters as he baffled teams with his plus curveball. His curve along with his changeup are already above average. His fastball sits in the high-80s/low-90s but he might be able to add a couple of mph as he fills out. Gibson has the looks of a middle of the rotation starting pitcher and it would not surprise me to see the Nationals push him quickly though he is likely to begin 2008 in Hagerstown. Along with Ross Detwiler, Smoker, and McGeary, the Nationals have assembled for themselves four very promising lefthanded starting pitchers.

Add another pitcher to the docket for the Nationals, Alaniz will never be mistaken for a dominating power pitcher. He gets by on his impressive command and guile. His fastball sits in the high-80s and he has a solid curveball. What allows Alaniz to succeed is his control. He seems most likely to develop into a back of the rotation starter but every major league team needs a reserve of those. Expect Alaniz to start 2008 in Potomac with Zimmermann.

Finally. A bat. Bill Rhinehart made himself known from day one in Vermont, driving in runs at a spectacular rate, thirteen RBI in his first twelve games. His bat is his calling card though he likely has the ceiling of a major league reserve. He played 1B for Vermont in 2007 but don’t be surprised if the Nationals try him out as a corner outfielder in 2008. Depending upon how the roster depth shakes out, Rhinehart could start out next season as high as Harrisburg though Potomac seems more reasonable.

Gildea was a ninth round selection as a draft eligible sophomore and the Nationals got him signed, a nice haul for that part of the draft. Gildea projects well as a center fielder. He has above average speed, knows how to work the count, and has line-drive power that could develop into home runs. He is not flashy, just a solid performer. If you were to ask me for a sleeper prospect, it would be Gildea. Expect him to start 2008 in centerfield for Potomac.

Bass, the son of former major leaguer, Kevin Bass, was grabbed in the 42nd round but put up extrabase numbers well beyond a 42nd round selection with 23 XBH out of 58 total. He played almost the entire season as the Monsters DH and is corner outfielder if he plays the field. Bass has the baseball genes though he likely is a #4 outfielder as a ceiling. given his age (22) it would be best for him to start 2008 in Potomac as corner outfielder/designated hitter.

Whiting’s calling card is his speed. He ran the 60 in 6.3 seconds and led the NCAA with 69 stolen bases in 2007. He has solid insticts defensively in CF though his arm is below average. He is a fun player to watch given his ability to manufacture runs on his own. I would expect a debut in Hagerstown in 2008.

Vermont finished the season with an above 0.500 record, defeating Hudson Valley 8-4 on Friday night (box/gamer). Josh Smoker started the season finale allowing two runs on two hits and two walks over two innings with two strikeouts. Adrian Alaniz picked up his eighth win of the season giving up two runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out four. LF Boomer Whiting was 1/4 with one RBI and one run scored. He also stole two more bases, finishing his season with league leading 37. DH Garrett Bass (2/5) and 1B Aaron Seuss (1/5) each drove in a pair of runs. CA Sean Rooney was 3/4 with one RBI and RF Michael Burgess was 2/5 with one RBI.

The DSL Nationals1 became the first Nationals affiliate at any level to win a championship, rallying from a 3-1 deficit at home to defeat the DSL Yankees1 5-3, winning the best of five series three games to two (box). Marcos Frias won the decisive game, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits and two walks over five innings of work while striking out two. Federico Tanco held the DSL Yankees hitless and scoreless over three innings of relief, striking out four. Carlos Peralta picked up the save with a perfect ninth. LF Juan Beltre (0/4) and CA Yan Carlos Hiciano (1/3) each had a pair of RBI for the DSL Nats1.

Vermont won a 12-7 slugfest in Hudson Valley, evening up their record at 37-37 (box/gamer). RF Michael Burgess was 4/5 with a triple, two home runs and five RBI. Burgess hit a solo home run in the second and capped off his evening with a three-run shot in the ninth. DH Garrett Bass (1/4 with 2 runs), 1B Aaron Seuss (1/4 with 2 runs), and CA Sean Rooney (1/5 with 1 run) each had two RBI in the victory. LF Boomer Whiting was 0/3 with two runs scored and his 35th stolen base of the season. Lake Monsters pitching struck out sixteen Renegades. Jack McGeary struck out a pair of hitters, but allowed three runs (two earned) on two hits and three walks over 1 2/3 innings. Ryan Buchter struck out four, but surrendered four runs on five hits and two walks over 2 1/3 innings. Randy Matias had four strikeouts in his three innings of two-hit shutout relief. And, Martin Beno picked up the victory striking out six over the final two innings. If Vermont can win tonight, they will finish with an above 0.500 record.

Tonight: LHP Josh Smoker (0-0, 0.00) wraps up the Lake Monsters season against Hudson Valley at 7:05PM

Home teams continued to hold serve as the DSL Yankees1 edged out the DSL Nationals1 2-1, evening the best of five series at two games each (box). RHP Amado de los Santos took the loss allowing two runs (one earned) on seven hits and one walk over 4 2/3 innings, while striking out three. LHP Miguel Aracena pitched 3 1/3 innings of shutout relief, allowing only one hit and striking out one. LF Juan Beltre was 1/2 with a walk, run and two stolen bases. SS Dani Arias was 1/4 with one RBI.

Today: It’s winner take all as the DSL Nationals1 and DSL Yankees1 play the fifth and deciding game at 11:00AM at the Jose Rijo complex.

Minor League News & Notes … Mark Zuckerman of the Washington Times looks at the improvement in the Nationals player development.

Jordan Zimmermann struggled in his final start of 2007 as Vermont was defeated by Hudson Valley 7-4 (box/gamer). Zimmermann allowed five runs on nine hits and two walks over 3 1/3 innings, though he did strike out five. CA Craig Stinson was 2/4 with his first professional home run and two RBI. 1B Aaron Seuss was 2/4 with a run scored. LF Boomer Whiting & DH Garrett Bass each had a double and SS Dan Lyons had a triple. The Lake Monsters need to win their final two games of the season to finish with an above 0.500 record.

Tonight: LHP Jack McGeary (0-1, 18.00) starts at Hudson Valley at 6:05PM

The DSL Nationals1 defeated the DSL Yankees1 6-3, moving to a two games to one lead in the best of five DSL Championship Series (box). Jorge Urena started for the Nats surrendering three runs on six hits and two walks over 4 2/3 innings pitched. Reliever Juan Jamie picked up his second win with three solid shutout innings allowing only one hit and two walks while striking out four. Carlos Peralta picked up his second save with 1 1/3 scoreless innings of relief. LF Juan Beltre was 2/4 with a solo home run and stolen base. 1B Eduardo Urbina was 2/4 with one run and one RBI. 3B Yeurys Tejeda was 1/3 with a home run and two RBI. CA Yan Carlos Hiciano was 2/3 with a double. And, CF Eury Perez was 1/2 with a walk and one RBI.

Today: The DSL Nationals1 look to win the DSL Championship with a 11:00AM game at the Latin Baseball Academy (DSL Yankees1 home)